Sibley's Love Child
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Posts posted by Sibley's Love Child
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Good god, just 5k in capitulation in over 6 months? This is what we're up against. Just as well i'm looking at the less-than salubrious areas of London. Presumably, that property is immune to HPC.
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Property Bee really is an invaluable tool isn't it? Safe in the knowledge that I can't afford nor want to buy a house at the moment, i'm content to trawl through Rightmove chuckling at all the desperate slashing of asking prices - as night follows day. One place in Dagenham (three bed terrace) was on the market in Sep 08 for 175k and has now (in increments) dropped to an asking price of 129k
As you point out Gilf, PB allows us to witness the true drop in asking prices. My wife was asking me to put in an offer of 100k but I had to explain to her that in the vendor's eyes, they've already slashed 40k so there's no point even trying a cheeky offer as (no doubt) even the asking price would be considered a 'cheeky offer'.
Sigh, roll on 2010.
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Funnily enough; I was in the newsagents today when I chanced upon a magazine that caught my eye - 'First Time Buyer'. I kid you not. The cover story was 'Why now is a good time to buy'.....the truth is indeed stranger than fiction.
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Probably explains why EA's are in just as much denial as their vendors, they're going through the motions, placing pre-credit crunched valuations and instructions hoping for a quick return to "normality". The major adjustment required on their part in order to deal with the new reality is a direct afront to them personally because of their personal portfolios, even though lower prices and increased transaction volumes is the only thing that can save them.
EA's are a great example of cognitive dissonance, many will be in denial to the bitter end, yesterday there was a news story about a EA being subject to forced liquidation.
Remember that species die out not because their environment changes, but because they find themselves unable to adapt.
This certainly explains a few things, naive as I am. I recently saw a two-bed terrace in Dagenham on Rightmove 'priced to sell!' at 'only' 147k. Amongst, the blurb was a legal notice that the property was owned by an employee of the EA (not Foxtons unfortunately). At the time I thought it quite odd but now the scales have fallen...
The property was withdrawn BTW so i've no idea what happened to it.
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I concur; a little birdie tells me it'll be different this time....
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That far eastern part seems to have always been cheap - but Essex has much better transport links than Kent, so I think its value will hold up better - if you move to Dag I would recommend the area between the station and the Ford plant off the Heathway - you then have the option of either the district line from Heathway station or the C2C service into Fenchurch St, and you have Asda, Aldi and the only decent pub in Nam within walking distance. And make sure you get one with an upstairs bathroom - much easier to sell on when the time comes (partner's house had downstairs bathroom and the punters generally don't like them). My guess is that those 2 bedded houses with upstairs bathroom and 60 foot gardens will probably drop down to £125k.
Thanks for the further insight. To be honest I would have preferred Kent as I work in London Bridge but the in-laws live in Elm Park, so Essex it is (mother in-law is to be the child-minder). When we do get around to offering, i'm looking for somewhere near Becontree or any of the Dagenham stations on the District line - of these (and assuming I have any choice) which are the most/least desirable areas of Dagenham? If 120k is the bottom for this area and type of house then I suppose it will be better than nothing, I guess. For obvious reasons, I would prefer to reduce the amount of debt we'll be saddled with but we'll see what 2010 brings. Thanks for the advice Bagsos.
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My point is that someone does indeed need to know how to engineer a new piece of technology and at any moment all that skill can become obsolete, then they have to learn another set of new skills.
Lets say it takes a few years to become a proficient architect. Then some set of people invent a machine that builds them from scratch based on various organic templates and all that learning is obsolete. There is now a delay in which new skills have to be learned - and it's this delay which we will eventually reach and be constrained by. The human workforce can't adapt fast enough to new inventions and ways of thinking.
I did say it wasn't happening yet, but it'll come. Imagine anything important that's taken years to learn and then imagine a technology that makes it immaterial in a short time frame. Teleporters arrive - what do car makers do? They retrain - this takes time. Where the rate of advancement meets the limits of our ability to retrain is our hard cap for advancement and growth.
Conversely, and with reference to my earlier post, it could also be argued that at some finite point - and constrained by the limitations of the human brain and our external surroundings - we will cease to devise new technology? If I recall, the last great invention of our time was the mobile phone; what does that say about our evolution?
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Why?
I recall reading an article in one of the broadsheets which measured each new invention/innovation (complete with graph) since the Industrial Revolution. If I recall correctly, human innovation has increased exponentially since then but has now, or will soon, reach a plateau whereby we will eventually start to 'regress'. At least, i think that's what Injin is referring to...
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I used to live in Dag in a house owned by my partner, and in my view Yandos is completely correct in his or her analysis, except the BTL part - the house next door to us was a BTL, there was one opposite and when my partner sold (to an OO) a fair few viewers were BTL merchants, because usually in that area they can onlet to a housing association for 5 years with rent guaranteed. The ex council properties there are already good value and whilst I think they will come off a bit, it won't be by as much as some other parts of London.
Thanks for the advice Bagsos; it's good to receive 'local wisdom', as it were. It appears that I may have been overly optimistic in my assumptions. I'll still hold out hope for some real drops but guess i'll see where the market stands in a year's time. If push came to shove, begrudgingly, we could afford a mortgage (assuming we're both employed of course) in the c. 120-140k range but would rather not if it could be avoided.
I agree with Yandos insomuch that, given the proximity to Central London and its transport links, Dagenham is cheap in comparison to other overinflated areas. Similarly, i've noticed an arc that spans from Essex into Kent covering areas like Pufleet, Thurrock, Erith, Dartford, Erith, Belvedere etc where a two-bed terrace can be sought for a not entirely unreasonable amount of debt (and all around 20-30 mins from London by train). Anyway, I digress.
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I AWAYS misinterpret the tone as a point of principle. So what exactly are you trying to say? Are you saying I am gay ??
Me? Heaven forbid; mind you, I imagine leather chaps are quite breezy this time of year...
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I don't think it'll drop by that much to be honest, thats a 50% drop from 'original' asking price in the link you posted. I'd expect them to bottom out at around 120-130k for the following reasons- Barking & Dagenham is one of the cheapest boroughs in London already- It has good transport links with multiple tube stations, Bus network, overground into fenchurch st etc- Due to the already low cost of property in this area and a large amount of council housing, you won't see so many BTL repos (at least not in houses) or people who have stretched themselves to buy which is where the best bargains come from.- Sheeple still believe in the 'olympic effect' (even more so in 2010+) and keep interest in this area pretty high.You may be looking at 40-50% off a 300K 1 bed flat in clapham, but 145K for a two bed house+garden near a tube station is pretty cheap (in the scale of things) already.
Thanks Yandos, the points you make are valid. I appreciate that Barking & Dagenham are relatively cheap (mind you, that could be argued for a good reason). I remember the asking prices were 20k higher a year ago so I do expect some sort of drop. I suppose 120k will suffice. Thankfully, time is on my side.
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Hi there,
I'd be grateful for any input to what is, admittedly, a rather generic question. At the moment the wife and I rent a council flat in SE17 with a baby on the way in March 09. By the time she's back in full-time work (we both work for the NHS) in March 2010 we hope to pick-up a two-bed terrace in Essex to be near the in-laws. At present, i've noticed that the current asking prices for most two-bed houses in the above areas (with the exception of Hornchurch, Rainham which are more expensive) tend to be around the 145-160k mark. My question is; in your opinion is it feasible to expect drops to the 90-100k mark by 2010 (which is what i'm hoping for)? This would be back to 2002 levels btw.
I've posted a link to a typical property in this area to give an idea:
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sa...3Ftype%3DBUYING
Many thanks in advance.
If you need any more info, please let me know.
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To be honest, i'm not entirely sure what he does. As a public sector Plebian in social housing, the financial sector has always proved a little bewildering and vaguely bemusing to me. I think that Ron For the Hills misinterpreted the tone of the OP; I was merely providing anecdotal evidence to support the notion that the upper rungs are in for a proper shafting, and not attempting to elucidate sympathy.
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I was chatting to a good friend of mine over the weekend. I was aware that his father was reasonably well-off (owns an apartment in Canary Wharf, an apartment in Blackwall and their family home in Surrey). I'm not too clear on the details however it appears that much of the father's 'wealth' was in stocks and shares (I gather that this was payment in-kind by the employer). Anyway I digress, turns out that he's lost around 1.5 mil due to his shares tanking. Ouch.
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Just noticed last night on the way home from work that a rather popular Polish deli (unoriginally named 'That Polish Shop') on the New Kent Road, SE1 has closed-down. I suppose it's not an entirely interesting anecdote in itself but, rather, confirmation of what we already knew; that the Poles have evidently clocked-on to the fact that it's 'going down the pan' here.
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>a CHEEKY OFFER is one that takes into account further drops beyond the likely date of exchange
yes very good point. i think the strategic mistake i made was in offering what i think the market will be at in early new year (eg 33% from peak) and the seller sensibly prefered to wait on the off chance things get better, rather than jump on it in case it gets worse. i am struglling to know what market prices are now in the small town where i live as nothing is selling.
still it felt strangely exiting to put in n offer that low after 18 months of looking.
I agree with your sentiment S2r2005 however my main beef as that after months of bear food a la HPC I fully understand the likely trajectory of the crash. Stupidly, I assume that the ostriches and ignoramus' (or should the plural be ignorami?) understand this as well. To this end, while I know that HP will be a good 40% off-peak in a 12 - 24 months time, I want it now. It's like being told my wife has bought me a brand new laptop for Christmas 2009 - what good is that, can't I have it now? Bah, psychology.
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Funnily enough, I had a similar experience this week. Agsinst my better judgment I viewed a two-bed terraced in Rainham (Essex) via Rightmove. While there were no internal pics, the asking price was telling; 146k. I assumed in advance that it would be a sh*t-tip but went ahead anyway. Indeed, it was very distressed (the EA whom showed me round ceded that it needed a little work; 'how about a lot of work' said I). Nevertheless, the omens were good; it was a vacant possession (with the previous occupant being repossessed) and the previous sale for the property was back in 2005 for 147k so I had the feeling that I would have some bargaining power.
Spoke to the same EA on Monday and suggested my value (citing expected further double-digit falls and the amount of money required to make it habitable) would be in the 80k area. There was a long silence after which the EA suggested 'we would be wasting each others' time' (a euphemism, if there ever was one, for 'bugg*r off'). I said fair enough, and suggested that our valuations were obviously opposing. Like the previous poster, I was secretly glad as I was worried I hadn't offered low enough. Nevertheless, I had expected at least some room for negotiations given that it was a repossession and that it really was in a terrible state.
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Gauging by the property's description I suggest that it's located on Albany Road - bisecting Camberwell New Road and the Old Kent Road (both areas well known for their rustic charm). As I am the proud inhabitant of the Aylesbury Estate (at least until our paltry NHS wages can afford our first house), I can confirm (in good authority) how much of a deprived area this really is.
On paper, a four bedroom town house for 150k may seem like a steal but in this area I wouldn't pay 15k. Bear in mind also that much of the estate is due to be demolished. Moreover, one of the flats on the Wendover (part of Aylesbury) failed to sell for 80k at auction last month!
If sink-estates could be summed-up in one word it would be Aylesbury.
Happy bidding.
Your Cheeky Offers
in Anecdotals
Posted
* Subtitle changed: from '4 bedroom terraced' to '4 bedroom terraced house ' [Found by esuei]
That's another thing i've noticed courtesy of Property Bee; presumably with more time on their hands, the EAs are actually constructing proper sentences. Almost all the properties that i'm tracking have changed from 'two bed terraced' to 'two bedroom terraced house'.
It's not all bad.