BelfastVI
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Posts posted by BelfastVI
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It's amazing to me how the prices are so high, nobody's buying.
I don't think we can claim there is no one buying. In the first half of this year, according to NIRPPI there were almost 10,000 sales. this is just less than the whole 12 month period of 2010. it may not be back to a 'normal market' but it's getting alot closer.
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Question for all NI posters here; what is it about the ormeau road, or the part of the ormeau road that the bakery is on, that makes it so desirable?
Is it the fact that it's near the city centre but not quite in it? Are there some amazing restaurants/bars on the ormeau road? (of course you'd need to be the sort of person who goes to restaurants/bars all the time)
I just don't get it. I get why some people would want to live in the universiry area, or might want to live in the city centre. I don't get what's so amazing about the ormeau road.
I am personally not an apartment fan. there can be large service charges and you can quickly out grow the apartment lifestyle as your life changes. To me they are something you rent in your 20's. but anyway you asked about that area. The Sunnyside district has changed dramatically over the last 20 years as professional people started buying the houses up in the late 90's for £30k to £50k.
However the other side of the road between Ormeau and Ravinhill has always been 'sought over' to use the agent speak. Very nice houses and I guess the Bakery tried to tap into both.disadvantage is you are still quite a bit from the city centre but I think it is a better build scheme than some of the others we discuss on here.
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Hi, luckily I only take my own advice based on what I learn from stats so I appear to have found the right forum. That said, a bit of advice based solely anecdotal 'evidence' always helps to reassure when a mind is already set on a course of action.
Fortunately in the last 24 hours I have agreed to buy a property at a price that I think is reasonably fair to both parties and that I am comfortable with. The house was advertised at a hopeful £140k and I first offered £123.5k and we ended up sale agreed at £129k. As we are buying with proceeds of our last home we are taking the view that we are 'swapping homes' and therefore any loss caused by Brexit is theoretical. If I were the investing kind I'd be snapping up £60k terraced houses to rent out, but I prefer to work for my money.
In my area(Fermanagh and Omagh) the anecdotal evidence is very similar to what the HPI shows so based on that I'd be expecting a small drop in sales and prices in the next 'post Brexit' quarterly report.
Congratulations. you done your homework. best of luck with your new home.
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Northern Ireland house prices 'return to growth'
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The quote from Q1 posted by DarkMarket could be used again. Predictable areas increasing in value but then terraced/town houses are still falling in those areas.
Oh and Hi- I'm new and trying to buy a home in NI so am trying to get and compare as much info as possible to make sure I don't pay too much.
Welcome to the forum.
We are not here to advice you to buy or not but perhaps more to inform.
Deciding to buy is always a important and can be a life changing experience.
The facts. NI prices collapsed from 2007 to 2012. Since that they have been steadily increasing.
Prices today are 45% or aprox £100k below what they were at the peak in 2007.
Prices today are 26% or aprox £26k above what they were at the bottom in 2012.
Prices today are aprox what they were in Q3 2015, almost 11 years ago.
Obviously buying around the bottom of 2012, with the benefit of hindsight would have been better than now. The difficult question is in two years, with the benefit of hindsight will we the facts show the same thing for 2016.
The recent NIRPPI report doesn't take in the effects of Brexit. Indeed the impact of Brexit may yet to be experienced although many of those who voted for it believe the impact of Brexit will be positive for the economy rather than negative.
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I just realised that I posted the link to the Index as surveyed by asking agents for sold prices and not the 'actual' sold price index taken from the stamp duty info. It will be interesting to see how the two surveys compare when the real index comes out tomorrow.
I guess they ought to be fairly similar but the agents version is obviously open to manipulation due to vested interests.
Whilst the NIRPPI is the 'definitive report' we still have to be careful about reading too much into the quarterly change. Q1 reported 0% growth and Q2 is reporting 3.8% growth. there wasn't a dramatic change in the market to justify that. I think it is better to take the annual growth of roughly 7% and divide that by 4 for the quarterly growth which gives you sub 2%.
Annual growth of 7% to 8%, which we are consistently experiencing for the last 2 1/2 years is too high. Whilst we were coming from a position of over correction we are now long past that. The problem, in my view remains lack of supply. New build prices are reported as increasing in value by 12%, almost twice that of the re-sale stock. It has been reported above that the re-sale market is full of stock of poor quality requiring investment but I am not sire if that is the reason.
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The cost of renting a home in Northern Ireland has risen by almost 5% to £623 over the last year
Belfast Telegraph 9/8/16
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There is a lot of contradictory activity at the moment. On one hand, there are a lot of properties coming on with high asking prices and supremely confident. On the flip side,a lot of properties are sitting for a long time and asking prices are actually being dropped.
as I search property news I see there are 14,000 listings (if I am doing this right). I remember this figure at 30,000 in 2009/2010.
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Northern Ireland wages no longer lowest in UK
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-34855674
"A typical full-time worker now earns more than £25,000, a rise of 5.4% over the year to April."
This survey, and most that are appearing are from pre-Brexit Data.
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I would love to see the holylands revert back to it's leafy family/owner occupier past but if the students continue to move out they'll just shovel more immigrants in. I walk through the holylands once a week to get to the Asian supermarket and it's obvious that some street are already mostly immigrants. It's such a shame that the entire area is just landlord-owned it would seem - I'd much rather see it full of families and young professionals who work in the city center/university area.
Thanks for the info!
I agree although I spent a few enjoyable years there many moons ago. However, every city has HMO's and they have to be somewhere.
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HI Northern HPC'rs, Long time.... What's the craic ?
Any significant movement in the market ? What comparative level are things at now ? 2004 ? 2005 ? ..... Probably be 10 years before we get back to 2007 levels... If ever.
Any sign of a normal functioning market yet ?
Can't see us ever getting back to 2007 in real terms and we don't want to. Going by the latest NIRPPI figures the average house in into Q3 2005 territory. Prices would almost have to double to get to 2007 prices.
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not sure what is going to happen to the Holylands with all the new student flats planned for the other end of the city. If that all comes into play there could be a big exit of students from the Holylands. this might appear a good thing but who and what will replace them.in time the area may return to its leafy family past but that could take a while as many of the houses have been altered to HMO's.
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Considering we're the region most exposed to brexit problems, surely we're most at risk of a shock. Farming is about to suffer and that's a big component of our economy. Cattle prices have dived already.
in regards to our position in the housing cycle we somewhat better off. London prices were running around looking for a pin and a pin it has found. we will not be immune from that and the reaction of the mortgage market.
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So we see value in the Nationwide report now?
in England I believe they have a decent market share so I assume their average price for Newcastle is reasonably reflective.There accuracy for here, with their lower market share I expect to be less reflective. However, if our average price has been increasing for the last 2 or 3 years faster than some other regions in the north of England then I expect out position in the table to change.
The NIRPPI is now aligned with the ONS reports from the rest of the UK (apples and apples) so we should get a better look at that over the next few reports.
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I presume you're saying that an upward moving house price trend is an indicator of wider prosperity? Housing is rather odd in this sense. Surely if houses were moderately priced then they would sell more easily and in greater numbers? As a retailer I would rather sell many items at a moderate profit rather than far fewer as a greater margin - obviously depending on the total profit.
Also RoI are fairly reliant on the UK for trade, albeit to a far lesser extent than it used to be. Which of the pair will experience greater problems? It might be that tariffs - if any - are set at a very low rate.
No I was just agreeing with the previous post that the Brexit vote and all the uncertainty since, in my view will act as a downward force on house prices than upward. I would also much rather sell houses at a lower price rather than a higher price as long as there is a profit to reward the investment and risk. As we all know housing is different in that falling prices decreases demand rather than increases. we were, until the latest nationwide survey, the cheapest region for housing in the UK. We are historically mid table. I imagine we will return there not by growth or much growth here but by falls over there.
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Agree it might not be so dramatic in the near term as negotiating exit will be a 2 year process. But the uncertainty that has been generated and is being shown in the markets indicates strong negative sentiment in the business world that may influence future prosperity.
Agree, it certainly is not a upward force on housing so therefore is a negative force. it will be interesting to compare the difference in the rate of growth in the ROI and here.
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Interesting fallout on the Momentum mortgage
http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.php?t=5479013
UB commissioned the valuations and would not allow the developers to have their own valuations or indeed see the valuations. in most cases it was GRG who just make up the rules as they go along. the developers could have £20k per house tied up in this so can easily get to a quarter to half a million here depending on how many houses were sold this way.
I understand it is in the small print that the developer cannot challenge the banks valuation which is an unfair term in itself, but would be ok if the bank were to commision a fair valuation to Red Book standards but they don't.
Prices have increased over the last 2 or 3 years but are unlikely to be near 2009 prices. the developer may have a chance, with proper valuations to save some of the money it has set away. GRG want none of that and have behaved terribly on this. unfortunate for the house owner but the fault is with GRG.
In the ones I am aware of the builder only had a few and had decided to trow in the towel as they were finished with GRG & UB.
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We already had help to buy 1 in the form of coownership.
totally different thing.
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Taken from the main board.
http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/210149-landlord-mortgages-plummet/
Hopefully the targeting of BTL is having similar a effect here in N.I.
I'd like to see a steady increase in transactions in the run up to the 2020 limiting of relief to basic rate, particularly those where the people farmer stock is transferred to owner occupiers.
I think in England they seen a glut of BTL purchases prior to the April Stamp duty changes therefore few afterwards.
Didnt notice anything like that in NI, certainly not in the new build market. Very few if any BTL purchasers.
Double edge sword. Fewer new BTL = Fewer private lets available added to an exit of some BTL. Therefore overall drop in the private rent stock = upward pressure on rent prices. The plus side is more properties available for owner occupiers to purchase. So good and bad ahead.
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I am hearing there are over 20 'bookings' today.
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Seems like our local BTLers have been paying lower prices in the rush to complete. Unlike their compatriots across the water who paid more.
See they've split the new and existing stock sales. This report continues to make the poly one redundant.
don't think they separate BTL from the rest so impossible to conclude that BTL is lowering. My view is it couldn't keep 'correcting' or 'increasing' at 7% pa and a more sensible rate has to kick in.
lol who is Poly?
Are you referring to the UUJ. Havnt heard it referred to that in years. 'Established in 1968 as the New University of Ulster, it merged with Ulster Polytechnic in 1984'. Is that what you are referring to.
I know you hate their report but it was accurate, even with the hindsight of NIRPPI and quite an achievement without access to the Land Reg data. I agree it is largely irrelevant now and only useful for the commentary. For years it was pretty much all we had.
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NIRPPI Q1 2016 out today
Key Findings
1% decrease from Q4 2015 to Q1 2016
5.9% increase in year.Sales volume for 2015 21,171 compared to 21,200 in 2014
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Does this have anything to do with it:
"Set In Circa 1 Acre Site"
What's the going rate for an acre of land on one of NI's top roads? Anyone know how many houses they squeeze onto an acre these days? A quick google search says about 10.
not in a conversation area
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Says:
"This facility may only be accessed via the Planning Portal"Planning service have blocked 'linked' access direct to planning applications which is a real pain particularly when you want to check several on a weekly basis. You have to search through their creaking EPIC. They have a 'recorded search' facility if you log in and create an account..
Media articles NORTHERN IRELAND Hpc Related
in Northern Ireland
Posted
Rents set to increase as landlords exit the market
https://www.propertyinvestortoday.co.uk/breaking-news/2016/4/rents-set-to-increase-as-landlords-exit-the-market
Not specific to NI but I having been reading the same sort of story about Dublin. Basically if you force the BTL landlord out there will be less properties available for rent which causes upward pressure on rent prices if there is the same demand for fewer properties. The flip side of that is you should increase the supply of properties for people to buy thereby placing downward pressure on house/apartment prices. But for me, particularly in NI it is a case of undesired policy outcomes.
For me I always thought it was preferable for the private investor to fund the supply for the rented properties required. I would rather that than ask the tax payer to build them. In NI I think we have around 80k-90k NIHE units and 35k HA units, aprox 120k units supplied by the public/HA sector and the same again by the private sector. If the BTL brigade begin to exit the market by anything more than 1,000 pa we have a major problem as the HE side only build that a year.
The total units in rent is around 240k.this is an increase of 80k or so over the last 10 years. I believe there are is a need for 10k new households per year. The industry has supplied less than half of that for the last 8 or so years.
So my long winded question is- do you think the number of properties in the rental properties will increase or decrease.