blackhole
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Posts posted by blackhole
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It's one thing having a mortgage product "available", its another thing actually being accepted. Especially if your in an industry hit by COVID particularly hard.
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26 minutes ago, Hullabaloo82 said:
Oh Christ. This is the problem with this site. People like you talk a good game but then you have to Google Knight Frank and your assessment is "just an estate agent".
I'm sure Knight Frank took into account matters such as https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/02/unemployment-claims-coronavirus-pandemic-161081 - 10 million in the US file for jobless claims.
Also getting reports of US Mortgage industry asking for bailouts left right and center, with one broker in particular cutting 70% jobs.
It's hard to think the UK won't have something similar, to be honest. Especially given the "gig" based economy much of the new service sector jobs are based on.
We'll see in 3 months how much more the gov can can-kick not only house prices, but millions of jobless in the UK too I guess.
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16 minutes ago, Hullabaloo82 said:
I don't get it; what makes you think the government won't just do the same again?
Lets see if it works like last time ? Even Mark Carney was caught lately admitting that the Central Banks dont have the war-chest they had previously.
See https://www.cityam.com/central-banks-running-low-on-ammunition-to-fight-recession-mark-carney-warns/
You could well be right, bail out everyone, all sails along. Followed by Brexit ?
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We never really had a proper recession in 2008; many things were deferred (including home repos) by bailing out creditors at mass scale, allowing the charade to continue for another decade.
Therefore thinking this is "yet another business cycle" where only a few will lose their jobs and people can simply "sit on their properties" might not sail this time.
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Shared ownership isn't that attractive to most. "renting is dead money" after all.
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2 minutes ago, prozac said:
I get invited to lots of parties paid for by corporate sponsors where you get free 5 star food and have an open bar and they have hot young interns mostly female who pretend they like you.
Same; not had to pay for a "night out" in terms of tickets or drinks in a while strangely enough.
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13 minutes ago, robbingXpat said:
EXACTLY, but not just housing.
Cars are going the same way!
Apparently 2016 was a record year for car sales (PCP's?), now that 3 year deals have ended/ending their are far more vehicles than buyers, some models (like my C3 Picasso!) Ford Focus etc. loosing up to £500 per month, and diesels are less desirable!
Even convertibles are not moving off forecourts, in July. Plenty of info on line. Seems I'll have to keep my Picasso, but it is only £0 road tax.
This is in part due to oversupply back in those years, which lead to some crazy good PCP deals across the board. Even the consumers themselves are coming to realise that those glory days are over.
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1 minute ago, Captain Kirk said:
You could do but you'd be dead before you ever owned it. But that probably wouldn't stop the plebs.
Whatever it takes to wake the plebs up, but i agree that might not do it either (!).
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41 minutes ago, Captain Kirk said:
It is ponzi-like with HTB and all the props.
So what is the end game? 0% mortgage rates on 50 year terms just to keep the £40bn a year debt expansion?
£1000 per month x 12 x 50 at 0% would get you to an average UK house price of £600K. Is that where we are heading? And then what after that?
Why stop at 50 years? Why not go to 75, 100, 150.....
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It's a sad realisation but I've come to realise that virtually anyone who has the financial means of being "on the property ladder" has done it by now.
That "vast" doesn't really exist, they're in on the ponzi that to date has kept giving.
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1 hour ago, Boo Hoo May said:
The Average Joe is only interested in how much they can borrow, and is so very thick they only know their name because it’s written in their clothes.
Depressingly true.
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2 hours ago, cnick said:
Fair enough ..... but should they be informed?
They (and to be fair, most of the population) haven't come to realise that this ever inflated asset prices = central bank manipulation. Takes one with some serious critical thinking chops to go there, often after they've not had the best experience in life.
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17 minutes ago, Boo Hoo May said:
Telegraph readers are a lost cause, much too far gone to care about.
Comfort. Too comfortable to care.
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2 minutes ago, rollover said:
And Corbyn will harvest the cream
That would easily sign the beginning of the end for the "mad gainz" types.
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2 minutes ago, mrtickle said:
I agree. I hope the MSM are on a long carefully planned mission to slowly and firmly manage the mental shit that is required. Or even, mental shift
Being stuck in a HMO in your 30s can also help accelerate that shift.
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Just now, spyguy said:
Theres limited, if any, loose lending.
See the numbers.
The 'Lets do what Gidiot wants' crowd - Nationwide, small BSes are having a new hole torn by the BoE. Theyve all cranked in their lending. Its all MMR compliant - less then 25% over the 4x household income, mortgage finished before retirement, etc etc.
True true, and that's before one even looks into the Tier-3's such as metro banking....
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I've come to the conclusion that you cannot actually admit in the MSM "what is required"; the masses haven't mentally made the mental shit from "house = mad gainz" to "house = utility" just quite yet but its certainly in progress.
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2 minutes ago, spyguy said:
Great if FTB age is 20.
Useless when FTB age is 35.
Which with the deposit requirements is far more likely (35).
Wonder how many other lenders had already loosened their standards towards this level? Am genuinely surprised with so much loose lending things are flattening or dipping down south. Likely deposit issues.
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Just now, Dorkins said:
The government can choose. Either it can bleed the rest of the economy dry to keep land prices propped up and then when there isn't enough of the rest of the economy left to keep doing this land prices will fall anyway, or it can let land prices fall while there is still some of the rest of the economy left and we can go back to some sort of sane economy in which resources flow to where they are most useful. It has chosen the first path for the last 20 years or so and we now have a situation where the average worker coming up can no longer expect to own housing in their lifetime. That economy needs to fail so that a better one can replace it.
I already answered your question about how resources move from failed businesses into new ones which are then able to hire so I don't know why you asked it again.
Sometimes I wonder if it hasn't failed, but happily likes to pay "landlord benefit". https://obr.uk/forecasts-in-depth/tax-by-tax-spend-by-spend/welfare-spending-housing-benefit/ indicates £23.4bn in 2018-19 year alone. Imagine what you could do if that £23.4bn was diverted elsewhere....
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11 minutes ago, Killian said:
There is corruption no doubt motivating their decisions to propup the housebuilder friends but notwithstanding this they stepped in to maintain stability as the economy couldn't take it.
How does the economy reallocate resources in a failing economy to employ hundreds of thousands, if not millions of adult males with low numeracy/literacy/computer skills (this is the reality of building sites)?
Likely so, but what do these adult males of low skills as you describe resort to when they require housing of their own? It's political can kicking IMHO.
To answer your original question, in theory a healthy economy would potentially find a use for these low skilled people, potentially skilling them up as part of an employment deal. I know, I know... currently that's not the case. And therein lies part of the issue - investment in people, of lack of.
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14 hours ago, spyguy said:
Theres a large structural shift happening at medium to large firms - deployment of more n more software.
No, this is not some fat klingon speaker in it installing windows and printer drivers. This is digitising orgs internals. Massive shift - think turbo charged ERP.
The change is signifcant enough for it to kill orgs who dont get it right or do it fast enough.
Rather than prepare over tye last 10-20 years, orgs have been cutting costs, not recruiting people because 'they are expensive' and awarding themselves more n more money for fuxing up.
You are already seeing this in retail - th sectors problem are not just rates n rates. Debs could not get its software working to be able to email an update ffs.
You are seeing it with GE - highly paid managers doing financial engineering rather than planning for futre. GE are owned by its debt holders.
Seeing it with Apple whove took the ball and run.
You are not seeing it with ibm whove fed up, massively.
The bulk of skilled sw people in the uk are 35-55. Older cohort are mainoy self employed as tgere was no career path.
Yep, this has lead to me achieving a 70% income increase in the last 12m. Many "zombies" have suddenly realised the quoted above, but there's not much actual talent left anymore thanks to recent policies (i.e. not investing in STEM all that much).
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It's well known within the security realms of telco regarding the poor security threat modelling Huawei deployed, for quite some time. Interesting how it bubbles upto the surface now.
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Just now, Andy T said:
Some estate agents try to get you to use 'their solicitor' for legals, so is it possible in some cases that the house builders & solicitors were in partnership, where the solicitors didn't explain or make available the full leasehold details, because their income depended solely on the take up of these shoddy leasehold newbuilds they were involved with?
Not defending buyers that are ignorant and don't read small print, but I can only imagine the sales pitch/stage managed setup in a Help to Buy development office, the whole process of 'making everything easy for the buyer', we'll take care of everything for you' type ******** etc. etc.
Possible, and likely, but surely just leaves them open to attack later on?
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52 minutes ago, iamnumerate said:
+1 I think the law society should investigate. The BMA (I hope) would investigate doctors who were that bad.
I like to think the solicitors would have covered themselves for this... as mentioned above, many buyers chose to overlook the matter despite it being spelt out to them.
The Secret Facebook Group Where Landlords Freak Out About Coronavirus
in House prices and the economy
Posted
I don't think any of the articles above take into account factors such as "work from home" revolution that'll certainly take some of the demand out of your usual "city" rentals. Or the outcome of furlough'd employees (who may not return to original roles, or possibly reduced salaries with it).
So many things are quite frankly in the air right now.