Crash Buyer
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Everything posted by Crash Buyer
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Indeed. Although I think the gold correction may be done here (in the 1500's). Closed my gold shorts today. No doubt there will be some volatility to establish a bottom over a longer period and I think subsequent performance will not be as impressive as recent 'breakout' history (i.e. like silver). EDIT: Improved clarity.
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Hamilton's written the most convincing explanation I've read explaining why this is not a bear market. RK linked to it a couple of weeks ago - link below again for anyone that missed it. http://zealllc.com/2011/bearsell.htm
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RK, looks like Grantham was right about the Presidential Cycle too. http://moneywatch.bnet.com/investing/blog/investment-insights/can-the-fed-save-the-year-3-effect/2787/
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So is the -6.66% on the S&P another Goldman joke?
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S&P close -6.66% The bull market debate: Latest from Nadeem http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article29734.html One of Angela Knight's regulars (Short Side of Long) http://theshortsideoflong.blogspot.com/2011/08/quick-market-update_05.html
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Jewellery. Nice chart RK. IMO the ratio should head back to 0.9, which could be delivered by gold correcting to around 1500 & S&P at 1350 (again). If gold was then to hit say 1750 (at 0.85 congestion) S&P is nearly 1500 (again), i.e. near to 1999 / 2007 tops. S&P +25% anyone?
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Adam Hamilton Major Stock Buying Op http://zealllc.com/2011/spxbuy.htm
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Good stuff there - on a similar note, this chart (from last night's close). http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2011/8/4/percentage-of-oversold-stocks-highest-since-october-2008.html Percentage of Oversold Stocks Highest Since October 2008
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Yes, 50-62% would put us around 5600-5700. That's what I'm looking for relatively quickly - usually a near-vertical drop like this is matched by a similar rise. Looking at calls on Monday, depending on what announcements come out this weekend. I agree about long vs short. We've been conditioned to be long only over the past two years and this market requires a change of mindset. Looking at the FTSE chart, the signs have been there for a while. Instead of consolidation followed by upside breakout we got the opposite. Jeremy Grantham made an excellent call on this in the last GMO newsletter (as posted by RK).
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You know what, I don't even bother listening. This game is hard enough without hearing all that sh1te! But I use Bloomberg etc as a sentiment indicator, useful for a contrarian.
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Well I did post that alarmist Bloomberg headline, complete with shouting capitals and underlining. TV news on in the background, stock market is the top news item - must be the first time in nearly 3 years! Surely a contrarian indicator? It's a bit annoying that Roubini was early, you can usually rely on him.
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Well based on the last time we had trouble like this (S&P -5% ) the main place to hide was bonds, not gold, which sold off like other commodities (i.e. deleveraging). So I think we've seen the high for this cycle. If only my view on equities had been as near the mark, that would have been more useful. :angry: Another spike in VIX to 31.66. Also in case we didn't get the message, Bloomberg headline: U.S. STOCKS PLUNGE IN BIGGEST RETREAT SINCE 2009
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It certainly feels like panic at the moment - it's been a while since we've seen the major indices lose over 3% in one session, let alone following sharp falls in previous days. As you said, the name of the game must be to get QE3 started (as having a head start on the announcement must be the most profitable strategy for the Giant Vampire Squid).
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I'm tempted to short too , but I think it's tougher shorting an uptrend than going long around the low. So I intend to wait for the low 1500s and ride the next phase up. Although I can't think of a better short at the moment.
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H&S: this year's Hindenberg omen? http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2011/8/2/head-and-shoulders-pattern.html Aug 2 As RK noted, now that we've heard from Roubini, I doubt there is much further to go. Edit: Chart
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I think we may have seen a short-term top in gold, based on the established trend from Lehman-days. I was looking for 1680, and we got fairly close today. IMO downside to around the 1520 region. If we get a rebound in risk, this could be the catalyst for the decline. Seasonals also unfavourable. * Disclaimer: The author does not hold any positions in any securities mentioned in this article. Honest. But did note the gold bubble discussion a few days ago on this thread.
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VIX is up quite nicely today to 23, matching the June highs.
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Yes - I think sentiment is too bearish to be bearish. IMO to be resolved by a 'surprise' debt agreement, which in reality will be the least surprising possible outcome.
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Nadeem tries to resolve complex problems in simple-sounding terms in an industry where most gurus do the opposite, for obvious self-interested reasons. Not far off at the moment. It's worry time - Japan crisis, then Greece crisis, now US crisis. We've got the three major industrial continents taking turns to justify a pullback. So Japan again in a couple of months? Tell the PIIGS to behave and wait their turn (although I do think Europe has the "best" crisis by far out of these).
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Possibly the 10 day run might be over, not so sure about the 10 year one though.
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Another immediate pullback-supporting post from QE.
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From Adam Hamilton's latest post http://zealllc.com/2011/tradfear.htm
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No, actually I think we're about there. Finally getting a bit of action on the VIX too. I'm adding to longs but nothing too aggressive yet. Will wait for a bit of upward momentum before going further. Maybe the Fed will help us out again later in the summer.
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http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article28641.html Nadeem agrees.
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This chap says buy, for the second time this week. http://theartofcontrariantrading.blogspot.com/2011/06/update.html http://theartofcontrariantrading.blogspot.com/2011/06/buy-say-new-york-times-and-time.html Look at the S&P chart on the 2nd link.Linear scale shows it exactly at channel support. Although I suspect a log scale would show it conclusively dropping out of the channel. As the S&P has doubled over the chart period, I know which scale I think is appropriate.