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Crash Buyer

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Everything posted by Crash Buyer

  1. Indeed. Although I think the gold correction may be done here (in the 1500's). Closed my gold shorts today. No doubt there will be some volatility to establish a bottom over a longer period and I think subsequent performance will not be as impressive as recent 'breakout' history (i.e. like silver). EDIT: Improved clarity.
  2. Hamilton's written the most convincing explanation I've read explaining why this is not a bear market. RK linked to it a couple of weeks ago - link below again for anyone that missed it. http://zealllc.com/2011/bearsell.htm
  3. RK, looks like Grantham was right about the Presidential Cycle too. http://moneywatch.bnet.com/investing/blog/investment-insights/can-the-fed-save-the-year-3-effect/2787/
  4. So is the -6.66% on the S&P another Goldman joke?
  5. S&P close -6.66% The bull market debate: Latest from Nadeem http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article29734.html One of Angela Knight's regulars (Short Side of Long) http://theshortsideoflong.blogspot.com/2011/08/quick-market-update_05.html
  6. Jewellery. Nice chart RK. IMO the ratio should head back to 0.9, which could be delivered by gold correcting to around 1500 & S&P at 1350 (again). If gold was then to hit say 1750 (at 0.85 congestion) S&P is nearly 1500 (again), i.e. near to 1999 / 2007 tops. S&P +25% anyone?
  7. Adam Hamilton Major Stock Buying Op http://zealllc.com/2011/spxbuy.htm
  8. Good stuff there - on a similar note, this chart (from last night's close). http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2011/8/4/percentage-of-oversold-stocks-highest-since-october-2008.html Percentage of Oversold Stocks Highest Since October 2008
  9. Yes, 50-62% would put us around 5600-5700. That's what I'm looking for relatively quickly - usually a near-vertical drop like this is matched by a similar rise. Looking at calls on Monday, depending on what announcements come out this weekend. I agree about long vs short. We've been conditioned to be long only over the past two years and this market requires a change of mindset. Looking at the FTSE chart, the signs have been there for a while. Instead of consolidation followed by upside breakout we got the opposite. Jeremy Grantham made an excellent call on this in the last GMO newsletter (as posted by RK).
  10. You know what, I don't even bother listening. This game is hard enough without hearing all that sh1te! But I use Bloomberg etc as a sentiment indicator, useful for a contrarian.
  11. Well I did post that alarmist Bloomberg headline, complete with shouting capitals and underlining. TV news on in the background, stock market is the top news item - must be the first time in nearly 3 years! Surely a contrarian indicator? It's a bit annoying that Roubini was early, you can usually rely on him.
  12. Well based on the last time we had trouble like this (S&P -5% ) the main place to hide was bonds, not gold, which sold off like other commodities (i.e. deleveraging). So I think we've seen the high for this cycle. If only my view on equities had been as near the mark, that would have been more useful. :angry: Another spike in VIX to 31.66. Also in case we didn't get the message, Bloomberg headline: U.S. STOCKS PLUNGE IN BIGGEST RETREAT SINCE 2009
  13. It certainly feels like panic at the moment - it's been a while since we've seen the major indices lose over 3% in one session, let alone following sharp falls in previous days. As you said, the name of the game must be to get QE3 started (as having a head start on the announcement must be the most profitable strategy for the Giant Vampire Squid).
  14. I'm tempted to short too , but I think it's tougher shorting an uptrend than going long around the low. So I intend to wait for the low 1500s and ride the next phase up. Although I can't think of a better short at the moment.
  15. H&S: this year's Hindenberg omen? http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2011/8/2/head-and-shoulders-pattern.html Aug 2 As RK noted, now that we've heard from Roubini, I doubt there is much further to go. Edit: Chart
  16. I think we may have seen a short-term top in gold, based on the established trend from Lehman-days. I was looking for 1680, and we got fairly close today. IMO downside to around the 1520 region. If we get a rebound in risk, this could be the catalyst for the decline. Seasonals also unfavourable. * Disclaimer: The author does not hold any positions in any securities mentioned in this article. Honest. But did note the gold bubble discussion a few days ago on this thread.
  17. VIX is up quite nicely today to 23, matching the June highs.
  18. Yes - I think sentiment is too bearish to be bearish. IMO to be resolved by a 'surprise' debt agreement, which in reality will be the least surprising possible outcome.
  19. Nadeem tries to resolve complex problems in simple-sounding terms in an industry where most gurus do the opposite, for obvious self-interested reasons. Not far off at the moment. It's worry time - Japan crisis, then Greece crisis, now US crisis. We've got the three major industrial continents taking turns to justify a pullback. So Japan again in a couple of months? Tell the PIIGS to behave and wait their turn (although I do think Europe has the "best" crisis by far out of these).
  20. Possibly the 10 day run might be over, not so sure about the 10 year one though.
  21. Another immediate pullback-supporting post from QE.
  22. From Adam Hamilton's latest post http://zealllc.com/2011/tradfear.htm
  23. No, actually I think we're about there. Finally getting a bit of action on the VIX too. I'm adding to longs but nothing too aggressive yet. Will wait for a bit of upward momentum before going further. Maybe the Fed will help us out again later in the summer.
  24. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article28641.html Nadeem agrees.
  25. This chap says buy, for the second time this week. http://theartofcontrariantrading.blogspot.com/2011/06/update.html http://theartofcontrariantrading.blogspot.com/2011/06/buy-say-new-york-times-and-time.html Look at the S&P chart on the 2nd link.Linear scale shows it exactly at channel support. Although I suspect a log scale would show it conclusively dropping out of the channel. As the S&P has doubled over the chart period, I know which scale I think is appropriate.
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