silver surfer
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Posts posted by silver surfer
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But equities can be expected to revert to the mean and give decent returns.
FTSE back to where it was 15 years ago...but if you factor in dividends then equities haven't been so bad during that time. You don't need much capital appreciation on top of the current yield to turn equities into a property killer.
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Love the pool though
Just you and about a thousand eels. Nice.
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I now make decisions based on...the best opportunity for my family.
I get why Malta is best for you, but I'm not clear why it's best for your kids?
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I see the Wilsons are back in the headlines,
I struggle to get past their photograph. Fat, ugly, and Brillo Pads for hair.
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Some over-geared landlords are going to find out they were not as clever as they thought they were.
I think a lot of unleveraged landlords will also come to the same conclusion. Every landlord I've ever talked to, after you get past the blah, blah, blah, eventually concedes they're in it for the capital gain. That's the big pay-off that makes them salivate. The prospect of a little surplus in any individual year? Might as well put the money in the post office.
No capital gain=no point in being a landlord.
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-33560035
-Interest rates go up at the end 2015 or early 2016
-Rates to go up by very small increments, maybe 0.25% jumps
-The new normal is interest rates levelling off at about 2%
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Nice.
I'm sure there will be downs as well as ups, maybe some very serious downs. The bigger prize, and the one I'm more focused on, will be seeing the FTSE break through 10,000 within the next ten years. In the meantime getting 3.5% dividend from the FTSE 100, with much of that sheltered in ISAs and a PPS, makes it easy to take the long view and not get spooked by any temporary setbacks.
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I don't like Osborne, but I like this budget...a lot!
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Thus, my belief that 2015 will see a return of the secular bear market in equities, postponed twice since '99-00 by financial engineering.
Let's see. I was 40% cash which is far too much for me, so I've started buying equities today.
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I hope so.
I've been sitting on too much cash for over a year now, planning on buying UK equities, waiting for Grexit to reward my patience.
But Grexit's all but arrived and the FTSE seems to have found a floor at 6500. I was expecting something with a "5" in front, and hoping for a "4".
At this rate I'd have been better off buying months ago and pocketing the dividends.
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More likely Grexit yet to occur...........
The markets sniff a compromise....
Maybe you're right. Varoufakis wouldn't step down on a whim, the most likely explanation is that there's a deal slowly brewing in back rooms and one of the deal points is that Varoufakis has to go as a face saving sop to the Germans.
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FTSE bouncing around 6500.
Is that it?
I'm overweight cash and want to buy equities, been holding off waiting for a sizeable Grexit fall.
But this isn't it, I'd have been better off buying last year and picking up the dividends in the meantime.
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If you were short the Greek stock market today you would be annoyed
Not as annoyed as if you were long!
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I was talking to a guy who lives on my road.
He owns a house that was rented out, then he evicted the tenants and "put it up for sale", then a To Let sign goes up and before long a very nice family moved in. Ten months later they're booted out and they told me it was because the landlord was selling the place, the move was clearly unexpected and came at a bad time but they accepted it as one of those things. Yet no sooner have they moved out than a To Let sign goes up again.
Anyhow I asked the owner if he was having trouble selling. No, was his answer, but he doesn't like tenants being in longer than a year in case they get "rights". I said as far as I knew it was the landlord that held all the cards, "maybe" he replied, "but the law might change overnight and then I could be stuck".
What a loathsome man, messing people around to satisfy his bonkers paranoia.
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They love Fergus back East, or 'Brother Mother Hair Lolita Legs Fat' as they call him.
Here's a documentary crew in Ashford chasing a scoop.
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Are shares in UK banks, Lloyds, HSBC, Barclays, a good buy?
I suspect if they really are a good buy then they're not just "good", they're "astonishingly good".
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Whereabouts are you?
Where I am in North Hampshire lower priced properties are selling very quickly. To give an example a two bedroom terraced house sold in 2013 for £180K. The identical house next door sold last month for £230K. Apartments at under £200K don't stay on the market for long.
It has now been rented for £1000 per month. That's a 5.2% yield, no letting agent involved and maintenance costs on a 10 year old house are unlikely to be very high. If the new owner has financed it themself that's a much higher yield than cash on deposit. And its an investment as safe as houses.
I know you lot will flame me, but this is the mindset you are disparaging. So far this has prevailed over your hopes for an HPC. If the owner is looking at the investment as a future pension then in 16 years the cost will have been recovered, in nominal terms. Thereon it looks to be a better investment than letting the financial services industry pick your pocket. Even if the capital value falls there isn't really a problem as long as rents stay in line with RPI or CPI.
That's strange.
I'm in South Hampshire. One of the very nicest parts, on the edge of the New Forest, minutes from three marinas, good schools, surrounded by great restaurants, direct rail links to Waterloo...and property prices are as flat as a witches t1t!
I bought in 2010, I could have bought yesterday and paid pretty much the same money.
It wouldn't surprise me if that situation prevailed for the next twenty or thirty years. As soon as buyers get a bit more money they'll get pushed back by MMR and little upward bumps in interest rates. Anyone thinking there's money to be made in South East property is heading for a disappointment.
Mind you, I'm not expecting a nominal price crash either. Just a generation long stand-off that sees very few winners but lots of broken dreams.
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What's changed?
I got my election prediction wrong, but is it that wrong? Cameron's majority is far less than Major's majority and he didn't have a happy ending. There'll be by-elections, and with mid term protest votes they'll be unlikely to go well for Cameron, plus there are plenty of rebellious conservative MP's willing to rock the boat. So I stand by my second election prediction, this government won't run it's full five year term.
Regarding house prices? Looks like I was wrong again by predicting basically flat for this year. There'll probably be a short term post election boost, and with the mansion tax no longer in prospect London and the South East will see their share of that boost. But longer term I'm still seeing prices broadly flat. Interest rates will start to tick up, maybe not until 2016 or 2017, and even then not by much. Yet even tiny mortgage rate increases will be enough to keep the lid on any increases and may even shave a few points off prices. This is the high point for house prices, but the correction will come from slow attrition rather than a crash.
There'll be very few winners from UK property over the next couple of decades. If you're mortgaged to the hilt you'll stay a debt prisoner, if you're priced out you'll stay priced out, and if you're a BTL landlord the capital appreciation you'd hoped would be your pension won't be there so you'll be working into your 70's.
Seems to me the only sensible strategy is to minimise your investment in UK property, if you absolutely have to be a home owner then be a small home owner, otherwise build a lifestyle that makes renting more bearable, with few physical possessions to make moving easier and your energies and attention focused outside of home based pursuits.
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Or so says The Telegraph, quoting Capital Economics,
Whether the inevitable rise comes in December 2015, July 2016, or March 2017 isn't really the point, the more important thing is that ultra low bank rates of 2% or less could easily persist for years and years and years. I'm struggling to see how bank rate can get back to anything approaching normal before the next recession hits and rates come tumbling down again.
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Why can't this generation be 'lucky'? Or the next?
Maybe the next, but it's getting a bit late for this generation. To really make property hay you need your luck early on in life, pretty soon this generation will have passed the critical stage.
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Excellent article, thanks for posting. I keep meaning to read Danny Dorling's book but haven't found time yet, has anyone read it and wants to comment?
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Let me bridge the gap.....
74% of owner occupiers live in 3 or more bedroom houses.
However only 37% of owner occupier households have more than 3 people in them (1 bedroom each for these above).
So at least 37% of owner occupies are "over-housed".
If they all downsized then there would be more bedrooms to share out more equally.
Isn't that like saying "if they all emigrated there would be more bedrooms to share out"? They're neither emigrating nor downsizing...so there aren't more bedrooms to share out.
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One could make a similar case (re 70/80s) for house prices too.
I see the parallels. Buying a house in the 70/80's was fortuitous to the point of uniqueness. Interest rates were at record breaking heights and would then decline for the next thirty years. Even London's population was declining to it's post war lows.
It's difficult to see when a similar house buying opportunity might ever occur again, maybe not for a generation or two. Buying a house today is a personal indulgence, like owning a boat, rather than a justifiable financial investment.
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Looks like Danny Dorling is the new HPC spokesman!
How Much Could You Survive On Without Shelter Costs?
in Anecdotals
Posted
I took early retirement at 55. I could have left sooner but was scared of running out of money so put it off. From what I've now learnt that was a mistake, and I could easily have retired five or even ten years earlier.
Firstly I've been surprised at how many jobs that I would previously paid to have done I now tackle myself. Furthermore, because I'm fairly good at these sort of tasks I often end up doing them for other people and get paid cash in hand. It's not a fortune but, because I'm not paying rent or a mortgage, it's not insignificant in the scheme of things. Secondly, the area I now live (a fairly prosperous market town on the south coast) seems to have a thriving barter economy, so I'll trade fish that I catch, or sailing lessons, or building a log store, for central heating maintenance or car servicing.
Bottom line is that living a very good life costs way, way less than I previously thought.