BufferBear Bitcoin Bull
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Posts posted by BufferBear Bitcoin Bull
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Hi Dave,
Are you still a bull or are you looking for other options following the demise of your BTL empire? You seem to have calmed down a weeny bit.
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Following BT's post, tomorrow's FT's front page has just been reviewed on Sky News. Nice headline "Bank of England predicts house prices will fall"
Good night BBB and TTRTR (wherever you may be).
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My sister told her colleague of my views on HPI. His response is below. By the way, he owns some BTL properties. I guess I should respond
. Anyone want to go first? Yeah I know it's just covering the same old ground but Bullish and Bearish opinions would be welcome."Tell your sister that there are a number of reasons why the housing market will not crash. See some below:
Not enough properties for the ever increasing population. i.e. she commented in one of her graphs (wasn't mine but off HPC-sent the link to the graphs) stating that the council is selling off their properties but they are not replacing them. The laws in this country make it difficult for developers to build properties at a fast rate.
Low interest rates which will not go over 5.5%, which is still not bad.
Interest rates have to remain low in line with Europe for when Britain eventually enter the Euro world.
Manufacturing is not very healthy.
Employment is very healthy.
Most landlords know that if people are not buying they would have to rent so if they hold on to what they have there would have to be an increase in demand.
The consultants who predict a fall of up to 15-40% should be sacked from their six figure job and replace them with me. My professional opinion is that the market will fall slowly for the rest of the winter (no more than 5%) but it will pick up in the Spring because interest rates will still be affordable and employment is good."
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Well go and buy a house then. No point waiting for the spring (there ain't gonna be one) or prices to start falling
P.s just ignore the advice of the property developer who told you London had dropped 10-15% and to put in offers 30% less.
P.p.s And for someone who wants a 3 bedroom semi with a garage in the SW as a FTB, I actually think it is more reasonable to believe a crash is going to happen and then then your expectations won't sound so.......unreasonable
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I think CE are wrong. 20% falls in 5 months? I think it will take about another 12/18 months. And as for 20% over 2-3 years. I disagree with CE once again. I strongly believe it will be more like 30-40% falls over this time period.
By the way. I think Durlacher, Bootle, CE etc under estimate falls so as not to be blamed for any downturn and to maximise their chances of calling the market accurately, thus keeping their reputations intact
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I don't think one can equate buying a car to buying a house, in my view. I do agree, however, that for some people they just want a home of their own.
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Thank you TB.
I know her circumstances and she has not made a good decision. If she were aware of all the 'facts' I do not believe she would have bought just yet. As I have said before, she was under no pressure to buy, apart from the belief that prices would be out of her price range if she left it any longer. Now who in their right mind would leave Balham to live in Wallington, especially if they work in central London, stop going out, live like a pauper etc, just to buy? More to the point, who believes a scenario will be reached where only the very rich will ever be able to afford a one/two bedroom flat in London? Doh! Don't believe the hype.
Another of my friends, if one remembers, has reduced his house from 245k to 220k over 8 months and still can't get a sale. Buoyant market, no falls, stagnation. Yeah right
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Hilarious
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In my view, she is being totally irrational as she believes if she does not buy now then she will never be able to afford to do so.
And as for "no one knows for sure what is going to happen to HP....")
Come on get real. One does not have to be an economist to realise that now is not the time to buy, if one does not need to, this certainly applies to London and the S.E. -
I bumped into a friend yesterday who told me she was moving because she had bought a property. I responded by saying "oh dear" to which she said "why?" I then asked if she had exchanged contracts, to which she replied happily "yes, I move in next week." At that point, I made a decision not to mention my views on the state of the market. She must have paid about 140,000 -150,000 for a 2 bedroom flat in Wallington. The saddest part is that she is under no pressure to buy now and her current rent is low, in an area where similar flats cost 270k. I know she is stretching herself to buy as she told me this. I hope it does not end in tears but I don't think it can be avoided. Why are people being so irrational?
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ZZG113. Wow - one person spending 1600 pm on their mortgage. £19200 per year on a mortgage for a single person. Isn't that even more ridiculous then?
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So on average a Londoner who has bought recently spends 1600 p.m (divided by 2 people = £800) on their mortgage.
If 800 pm x 12 = 9600, and this equals 19% of their annual salary (let me round it up to 20%), at present the average salary of a recent buyer is 48k? Is this correct? I'm confused
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From the BBC.
Last Updated: Thursday, 4 November, 2004, 08:46 GMT
UK house prices 'fell in October'
House prices appear to be coming down
UK house prices fell by 1.1% in October, confirming a softening of the housing market, Halifax has said.
The UK's biggest mortgage lender said prices rose 18.5% over the past year, with the annual rate of house price inflation below 20% for the first time in six months.
The average price of a house in the UK now stands at £160,857, down from £162,911 in September, Halifax said.
It said five interest hikes in a year had "taken impetus away" from demand.
More soon.
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I think this is the link to the required section. Hopefully, the relevant national press release will be added before I leave for work, where I have no internet access!!
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Sledge,
I looked for the figures 30 mins ago but don't think they have been released yet. I used the link on the home page (HPC) but October's report is still showing.
Do you think they are going to release them in time to try and influence the MPC's decsion due at noon??
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I don't think the market's are expecting a rise and, to date, Merv has signalled his intentions as not to cause panic. I think the housing market will correct regardless of whether interest rates go up or not but I would like another nail in the coffin.
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Crap I bet!!
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Wow. How scary is that? The market has a long way to fall and will be very painful!
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Webmaster,
Thanks for the fridge magnet. It's the only one that my one year old daughter can't get off the fridge
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Although this site isn't specifically geared to a HPC, there are some threads on the state of the Aussie housing market.
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1) 40-50% falls (real)
2) April 2004 (London)
3) 2007/08 then stagnating for another few years.
I actually believe Bruno's scenario is very realistic.
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Are people really so dim?
I was speaking to a friend of my sister today and got into a conversation about the housing market. Her friend started by telling me that she did not believe house prices would fall. I pointed out that London had been falling for the last 4 months according to some reports to which she replied "they would say that wouldn't they?" She seemed irritated when I said I believed house prices would fall in London by at least 30% and looked at me like I was completely mad. I then went on to say that I knew it was an unpopular view and I often encountered such facial expressions:) My sister looked at me in such a way that she wanted me to drop the conversation but I didn't as I was enjoying myself. I then asked her friend why prices would not fall, in her view. She gave me the standard answers..interest rates etc. I tried to explain why interest rates did not necessarily need to reach similar levels to the last crash but she looked at me blankly. She then went on to tell me that BoE will protect the housing market etc. Interestingly, she knew that in London the BTL market was not profitable for new investors. I then asked "if they are no longer buying and FTB's are no longer buying, who is buying?" She confirmed her idiot status by responding "this didn't matter as someone will always buy." At this point I lost all interest in her stupidity (and she is an academically educated woman) and told her to visit this site or to discuss house prices in 3 years time. She was not amused
BB
P.s What amuses me is that I am viewed as a maverick at work, in relation to my views on what is around the corner for the housing market!!
P.p.s I posted a couple of months ago about a friend who had to reduce his property from 245000 to 225000 to get a sale. He was offered 215000, to his horror, but finally settled for 218000. Guess what??? The buyer pulled out and the property is now on for 219950. 2 months ago I suggested price it at 220000, thus undercutting his competitors, o/w he would miss the boat. Oh dear, he has missed the boat and will be lucky to get 210000
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Hi Gavin,
You still have time to visit? Surely it must feel different now that you are travelling and in some ways less important.
Enjoy Egypt.
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BBC2 now. Property programme about BTL and include props in Bulgaria.
Psychology
in House prices and the economy
Posted
Webmaster,
Can this be posted with the other graphs? As you can see, it is from Property Facts but has only recently been placed on their site. Someone also posted this link on the FT forum.
http://www.propertyfacts.co.uk/psychology/psychology.htm
It's quite apt isn't it?