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Crashman Begins

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    It Struck Me Today...it's Going To Take A Massive Event To Bring Reality To The Market

    in House prices and the economy

    Posted

    Hello. What have you been drinking ?

    I think you mis-read what I said. House prices are going to collapse but there needs to be a major event now to re-focus everyone's mind, the long slow grind that was happening before this "recovery" was having an effect but that's been totally reversed.

    That major event could be tomorrow or in 2 years time, I think there will be one.

    I wouldnt never buy a house in the UK right now. I think anyone who does is insane. Too much risk. All you are doing is bailing out a bank ( and I think the idiots buying for that ).

    Hahahahahah hahahh

    Not nice when someone turns your words around & try's to put people against you IS IT ??

    Thank You - From A Young Hpc 1St Time Buyer

    in Anecdotals

    Posted · Edited by Crashman Begins

    Wow

    Guess a guy can't say thank you around here

    I'll be eagerly waiting for some of the posters on here to buy so I can call them names.

    Maybe you'd all like it if I was up to my eyes in debt and being re possessed ????

    Hahahha you've made me laugh.

    Thank You - From A Young Hpc 1St Time Buyer

    in Anecdotals

    Posted · Edited by Crashman Begins

    I would like to send a Gigantic huge thank you to HPC forum posters & especially the posters who posted from 2004 onwards leading up to the crash.

    Thanks to Realist bear ( For continually posting through 2005-2008 false boom) Dr Bubb, Eric Peebles, & all the others. Most importantly CGNAO.

    The housing market moves with financial markets, so to understand

    Where prices are going, you've got to pay attention to what the markets are doing & where the money is heading. Whether it's up or down.

    I found this forum in my early twenties around 2004 (Youngest HPC member ever / at the time ??) not even knowing how a mortgage worked.

    I was a complete brainless sheep enjoying my youth.

    Fast forward 7 years I managed to defy the trend for people my age & purchased a lovely home for me & my family near London roughly 3 years ago.

    It's been blood sweat & tears along the way & I've learned that you can't share your financial plans with people due to jealousy, interference & greed etc

    My advise for any 1st time buyers reading this would be to do your own research ! Don't just follow one set of ideas as that represents just one view.

    I subscribed to different sources, followed many investors on YouTube, took note of many posters ideas & made my own decisions to suit my needs.

    That decision meant that I bought smack bang at the bottom of the double dip recession, even though lots of posters told me not to.

    Seems like my theory was spot on.

    Buy at the bottom of an expensive area to protect yourself from

    A falling market.

    THREAD HERE : http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/168400-whats-your-opinion-1st-time-buyer-buying-at-low-end-of-wealthy-saught-after-area-near-london/

    I'm now looking at 100k+ equity which is crazy.

    This is not a goodbye thread, I'll still be lurking & reading occasionally

    Anticipating the 2022 crash. (My prediction)

    Best of luck to all for the future

    Crashman Begins

    Is Prime London Crashing? - Merged Threads

    in House prices and the economy

    Posted

    Crack up boom ?

    What is a “Crack-Up Boom?” Von Mises explains:

    “‘This first stage of the inflationary process may last for many years. While it lasts, the prices of many goods

    and services are not yet adjusted to the altered money relation.

    There are still people in the country who have not yet become aware of the fact that they are confronted

    with a price revolution which will finally result in a considerable rise of all prices, although the extent of this rise

    will not be the same in the various commodities and services. These people still believe that prices one day will drop.

    Waiting for this day, they restrict their purchases and concomitantly increase their cash holdings.

    As long as such ideas are still held by public opinion, it is not yet too late for the government to abandon its inflationary policy.’

    “But then, finally, the masses wake up. They become suddenly aware of the fact that inflation is a deliberate policy and will go on endlessly. A breakdown occurs.

    The crack-up boom appears. Everybody is anxious to swap his money against ‘real’ goods, no matter whether he needs them or not, no matter how much money he has to pay for them. Within a very short time, within a few weeks or even days, the things which were used as money are no longer used as media of exchange. They become scrap paper. Nobody wants to give away anything against them.

    Is Prime London Crashing? - Merged Threads

    in House prices and the economy

    Posted

    http://metro.co.uk/2014/05/16/property-buyer-registrations-up-82-in-north-london-since-2013-4726395/

    Buyer registrations up 82% in north London since 2013

    The north-west and central London property market has seen phenomenal amounts of activity with huge demand for properties in recent times. In the first quarter of the year, we saw an increase of 82% in our buyer registrations compared to the start of 2013.

    During the same period, we saw nine prospective buyers register for every new property instruction and in particular we have been inundated by cash rich buy to let investors, as well as first time buyers making the most of Help to Buy and mortgage availability.

    These buyers are particularly active in Crouch End, Islington, West Hampstead, Highgate and Muswell Hill and are mostly looking for properties under £500,000. Indeed, these sales accounted for 16% of all transactions across north-west and central London in the last six months.

    Is Prime London Crashing? - Merged Threads

    in House prices and the economy

    Posted · Edited by Crashman Begins

    Ok Crashman Begins. I've read many of your posts since 2007, and knew you were hpc, and it seems you got some value in buying before the main reflation stopped the crash. In your position I'd perhaps look less at the equity from the reflation (which could reverse again), and more at just paying down the principal (mortgage - if you have one), and enjoying your home.

    That's said with no resentment for you getting a fair deal when you bought (against reflated price situation now), just in the view a secondary HPC could be coming. And when you do concentrate on mortgage debt (if you have one) instead of any current value, and enjoying your home-as-a-home, it's probably healthier overall, and may have prevented peoples' excesses with debt, entitlement, during the boom.

    Some of us non-owners haven't been wiped out in the reflation either, despite more housing equity for others, and my view is there could be a fall-away in willing/able buyers in the future, with more inventory to market for real hpc.

    Yes have been overpaying as much as possible & will continue to do so until the bank announces an increase in rates etc, which we will then take as a sign to get another fixed rate.

    Is Prime London Crashing? - Merged Threads

    in House prices and the economy

    Posted

    There are more main risks to house price values, other than what a Candy has outlined. And you're seemingly betting on - although you may be already aware of them. You make your decisions though, as do I, heavily weighted in cash savings/deposit. It's the market - people make their decisions.

    Frederico below thought there were only 3 risks, but a few hpcers pointed out what he may have been totally complacent about.

    http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=198315&page=4

    My decision to buy was one based on years of observation.

    I found this site in 2004, watched a boom happen in 2005/6 where a crash was expected.

    Waited patiently for the 2007/8 crash & missed the bottom of it (in London) by 6 months due to rich Londoners

    & bailouts etc

    Then due to a few setbacks was able to buy in 2011.

    Luckily I managed to buy smack bang at the bottom of the double dip recession that never happened.

    & am now looking at close to 100K equity.

    I'm no bull but I learned to listen to multiple opinions over the years

    & my urge to buy near London before a printy printy boom was 100% spot on.

    I'll take my chances with a property near the heart of the fiat money empire.

    Is Prime London Crashing? - Merged Threads

    in House prices and the economy

    Posted · Edited by Crashman Begins

    Selling up elsewhere, it seems... or one of his connected companies. How dare people moan about the rent !?!

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2611131/Shopkeepers-revolt-Duke-Westminster-forced-sell-famous-Parisian-flea-market-16-million-loss-stall-holders-accused-behaving-like-feudal-landlord-jacked-rent.html

    Also where's all Crashman's Begins buyers wanting to pay 49.9m, or 45m, or 42m, or 35m. Isn't there constant demand with forever eager buyers for everything?

    Atypical... not conforming to type; unusual or irregular. Prepare for more unusual market that also go down, not just frenzied up and up.

    http://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/idUKKBN0DI0NY20140502?irpc=932

    Overheating? London sets record with 140 million pounds apartment Sale

    Fri May 2, 2014 4:26pm BST

    POLITICAL THREATS

    The wall of money chasing a finite amount of property has sent luxury London prices soaring almost 80 percent since 2009, and while plutocrats' ostentatious purchases grab the limelight, prices have rocketed even in poorer areas.

    Prime central London house prices have risen 79.4 percent since March 2009, against a 40.6 percent increase in Greater London house prices over the same period, according to data from Savills.

    Candy, who with brother Christian started out in 1995 with a 6,000 pound loan from their grandmother, said the main risks to the market were changes in government policy, a rise in interest rates or oversupply at the top end.

    Changes in govtment policy - not going to happen

    Rise in interest rates - not any real rise (printy printy)

    Oversupply at the top end - I've seen so many new flats being built in surrounding areas of London & still being built that I think they're leaving the top end well alone.

    London House Prices

    in House prices and the economy

    Posted

    Do you guys actually know people / home owners in London ?

    There are so many people wanting to buy in London that

    If prices crashed like in 2008 they would bounce back up within 8 months max.

    Believe me I witnessed it happen before the bailouts / zero interest rates started.

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