Flash
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Posts posted by Flash
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You have to remember that Ireland is population of just over 4m people. Therefore, to get a sense of perspective in UK terms, multiply each figure by 15.
Cork is winning some impressive investment - Amazon coming on the back of Amgen and others. It's a shame that there's not more Irish homegrown success from the Celtic Tiger.
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It never occurs to people that if the locals aren't buying them, they should steer clear too.
Instead, people have swallowed the hype that the Irish are now infinitely richer than the Brits and afford to buy all their houses. Fill 'yer boots!!!
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The Irish market is really beginning to interest me in a morbid sort of way.
Does anyone know what percentage of mortgages are fixed rate as opposed to variable?
What is offered as a fixed rate for 25 years?
Will much of the existing borrowing be protected from the forthcoming ECB rises because people are on fixed rate mortgages?
I don't know what the breakdown is but I hear the majority of FTB's are fixing.
25 years? - That's only for the very wealthy.
35 is more common now. -
Nice one Duplex - one for the file.
In fact, that has to rank as the most stupid article I have ever read on the whole issue...And, as you can probably imagine, that is up against some very serious competition. The muppetry all the way through is truly something to behold. I could pick through it, but I really don't know where to start. It's just ridiculous. It should definitely go into the blog.
Most young Irish property entrepreneurs release equity in their existing Irish house to fund an investment abroad....and most of that money will never be seen again.
Sean put €10,000 down on a one-bedroom unit in an apartment complex in the best location in central Warsaw.The full price was €120,000, which doesn't include fittings like kitchens, wardrobes or flooring.
A car-park space cost another €15,000 to €20,000.
...and the average wage in warsaw is what? On that basis, it might even be more expensive than Dublin you muppet.
He bought sight unseen which is not recommended, but "knew people who knew" the agent, Irishman Conall McGuire of Warsaw Properties....I give up.
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http://www.shanghaivision.com/
These guys have been going gangbusters pushing property in the Irish media. Whoops.
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Don't worry, no crash coming, nothing to see here...
Keep borrowing, keep buying-to-let....What's that?...ah, rental yields. Well we don't worry about them. Why worry when you have capital growth of 10%?
Is it me or am I missing something?
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I stopped taking seriously anyone in Ireland with words "economist" or "bank" or "real estate" in their title. I'm loath to sound like a conspiracy theorist, but I no see two-sided analysis here. I simply do not trust what passes for analysis here.
Most of my investment returns have been made in two, short, separate and v.different periods. Yes, that's MOST i.e. >50% of my roi for the last 10-15yrs. Maybe I was lucky, but neither time would I have been as successful had I listened to the likes of Dr. Dan, who's no doubt covering his @ss as we speak. Another econo-babbler-apologist, Austin Hughes or something was on the radio yesterday evening. he mentioned something about Trichets rates amounting to "slow Chinese water torture". I almost choked when I heard this-- did he realise what he'd said? The event horizon will be upon us when the marginal buyer registers that what is happening is a slow, unending tightening of the noose... realisation of that reality, NOT the actual rates themselves will precipate a crisis....
I think the event horizon is much closer than we think.
I think you've hit on something important here, which is a key difference between the UK and Irish market. In the UK there is a prevailing feeling that because the country can control its fiscal policy, "they just won't let a crash happen".
Irish public opinion has not really confronted the fact that as interest rates really start to bite, not only will there be no let up, things could get much worse, because ECB loyalties lie elsewhere.
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Disagree. This 'blow off' top is erriely similar to stock market behaviour. The behaviour at Adamstown a few weekends ago (for non-irish readers: a large "new town", greenfield, development in West Dublin) has spooked me. The FEAR evident in the buyers queuing up overnight to throw their brand new mortgage debt (some 100% no doubt) at the developer....
Belief in the robustness of the Irish economy amongst the masses is devout, unwavering and almost totally unanimous. Yet the irrational behaviour we are observing now just beggars belief. Seriously, for those not living in Ireland, it is very hard to put into words how surreal this has become.
This final push upwards has now rendered the chances of a soft landing impossible. Once the "SSIA effect" has worked its way through the system, buyers will be left with huge debts at much higher interest rates. The market will turn very sharply. There will be mass defaults. Banking crisis anyone?
In the last week or so I have become seriously worried about where to put my assets. I'm considering going up to 20% gold/prec metals. I could give you techincal or fundamental reasons for my fear at the moment, but at the end of the day my instinct is saying go to the sidelines. Problem is even the sidelines (cash) may not be completely safe....
It's a tough one alright. Flash is 30% cash, 25% gold and 45% stocks. The only property play is in Germany through Speymill.
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they must be feeling pleased with themselves, got on the ladder just in time before..
the ECB puts up the rates
Ever heard the joke about the guy whose car is running out of fuel, so he puts his foot down to get to the garage quicker?
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"mortgage mania"!!!
Is that for real?God help us....
Mania:
1. an irrational but irresistible motive for a belief or action
2. a mood disorder; an affective disorder in which the victim tends to respond excessively and sometimes violently
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That had me laughing out loud - great image!
Does anyone know the song "Turning Japanese" by the Vapors? You should play it at top volume, windows down, driving around Dublin.
I'm turning Japanese
I think I'm turning Japanese
I really think so
Turning Japanese
I think I'm turning Japanese
I really think so
Turning Japanese
I think I'm turning Japanese
I really think so
Turning Japanese
I think I'm turning Japanese
I really think so
Very appropriate...especially since it is about being a banker.
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Reading the comments from RICS makes me think that FTB v BTL will soon become a hot political issue in the UK.
I don't think the government will do something just yet. But if they decide to we should get plenty of warning. First, MP's will start briefing the media on why rising house prices are "bad news" and how FTB's "can't get on the ladder." This will prepare public opinion for what they will do next...
..Tax BTL, or at least deny the landlord relief on interest payments.
Anyone have any thoughts on how this may play out?
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I guess the marketing with institutions is done and book is more or less complete now - I hope my pension fund hasn't bought in.
It will be interesting to see how the shares will get away when they float around March 15, especially if the research Realistbear and coolaftershave were talking about becomes public knowledge in advance.
I'm not suggesting anyone should pass it on to the media, but Jim Pickard at the FT might be interested.
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Sorry if this has been posted elsewhere before, but this article is very relevant to the discussion.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2095-2024754,00.html
Existing private-sector credit is now just fractionally short of twice the level of gross national product (GNP) in this country, and growing at a rate of close to 30% year on year. If this process continues private- sector credit will hit €340 billion by the end of this year and €450 billion by the end of 2007.When you wave those statistics in front of "expert" economists like Dan McLaughlin (Bank of Ireland) or Austin Hughes (IIB), they will tell you that those debt levels are ok, because they are mainly "asset backed".
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and look how much we pay for them.
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Mind you there's also the johnny-come-lately amateur BTL landlords. God I'll be glad to see some of them go under. Bloodsuckers. (Mind you my current one is lovely, great response time on the couple of occasions we've needed anything).
There are some really good deals around for tenants in Dublin. Yields are less than 2% in many areas. A short gander at www.daft.ie reveals that so much of the city and suburbs is up for rent, it is like everyone wants to be an owner/landlord, and they are all chasing tenants that don't exist. When my lease is up, I will select a half-dozen possibles, put in silly offers and see if a desperate landlord takes the bait.
Oh, and welcome to HPC Captain Clamp!
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A great article. The most interesting bit for me is the link between the demographics and politics, because it is something I have often thought about.
As I have said before, there is a burgeoning underclass of young people in Ireland, becoming increasingly disillusioned with the whole 'Celtic Tiger' story and the unearned wealth it has created for their elders. The only hope for the young is to take on a mountain of debt, work themselves to the bone, and cling to the hope that the party continues for long enough, so that in decades to come they can emulate the lifestyles of their fathers – it’s a very tall order.
As David McWilliams alludes, there is political capital to be gained here. The main parties had better get on the case or else prepare to share power with Sinn Fein.
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Speymill (already AIM-listed) will be the property manager of the fund which will float around March 16. There was an article on it in the FT last Friday, but I can't find a reference to it on the web either. If I find out any more, I will be sure to post it here.
Flash
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In their frenzy, people are so scared about missing the boat they'll just about put up with anything.
That's right folks. It's a case of "buy now or pay more later".
We've long passed the point when a soft landing was possible. Many of those aforementioned people are young, just starting out in their first home. Meanwhile the old retire on their inflated property pensions, funded by a huge burden of debt that will be carried by the younger generation for many years to come. It's all very sad.
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Can you imagine what a ECB rate of say 5% would do in Ireland... or 6% ... or 7%... bye bye Celtic Tiger...
Agreed. And when it is all over what will be the Tiger's legacy? - Copious helpings of cold turkey for the masses of debt junkies.
I can only think of one real home-grown corporate success story to come out all this, just one that has really imposed itself on the international stage, and has the foundations to see it through boom and bust - and that's Ryanair. I'm struggling to think of any others. Celtic Tiger - my ar5e.
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The property market is seriously undervalued - rental yields are excellent, business confidence has improved dramatically, and the outlook for economic growth is better than it has been for years. Therefore prices can only go up from here.
oh...er...sorry...I thought this thread was about Germany.
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Is There A Way I Can Invest 10 Grand In Germany Property?
Yes.
Mid-March will see the AIM launch of Speymill Deutsche Immobilien Company. I'm going to take a close look, with a view to throwing a few grand in - especially as the man behind it is Jim Mellon.
Why any amateur would invest in overseas property directly beats me. Why not just back a professional? And, if I suddenly want to pull out of German property and invest in something else, all I have to do is pick up the phone.
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Talk about scaremongery! "100 and 200 pages long", don't be daft man!
WHAT WILL THE HOME INFORMATION PACK CONTAIN?
The Pack is likely to include the following documents, most of which are currently provided later in the sale:
* terms of sale;
* evidence of title;
* replies to standard preliminary enquiries made on behalf of buyers;
* copies of any planning, listed building and building regulations consents and approvals;
* for new properties, copies of warranties and guarantees;
* any guarantees for work carried out on the property;
* replies to local searches; and
* a home condition report based on a professional survey of the property, including an energy efficiency assessment.
Also, for leasehold properties:
* a copy of the lease;
* most recent service charge accounts and receipts;
* building insurance policy details and payment receipts;
* regulations made by the landlord or management company; and
* memorandum and articles of the landlord or management company.
As for personal details: Is this any different to letting complete strangers (prospective buyers) look around your house?
This may be a silly question..Apologies if I'm missing something.
What is to stop the seller 'doctoring' any of this information? When there are £000's at stake, even the most honest people can be tempted into things they wouldn't normally do.
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Begbies Traynor are also into debt management, and Tenon too I think.
Also, Invocas, a Scottish based protected trust deed provider (similar in principle to IVAs) is to float on AIM "this spring". Charles Stanley are the broker - I'm going to try to get a prospectus.
Cheap Money
in House prices and the economy
Posted
If the Irish economy does not blow up spectacularly in the next few years, then everything we have learned about economic history will have been turned on its head.
I have just shown this article to Mrs Flash, who recalled that a few days ago whilst she was having coffee with friends in our leafy Dublin suburb, they started to gang-up on her as to why Mr Flash would not buy a house for her.
One pointed out that her friend had just moved into a house around the corner at Christmas, and is €40k up already!! Mrs Flash just went a bit quiet, as she often does in this situation.
It winds me up a bit though. These people that have supposedly made €40k in two months, actually paid around €50k in stamp duty, so they are not even in the black yet.
Also, these discussions all seem to start from the premise that we are missing out - Mrs Flash would have got a better deal if she had married a man with mindset of their husbands and mortgaged themselves to the hilt. :angry:
So I had to point out to Mrs Flash that with the majority of our investments in equities, we are doing just fine - very well over the last few months in fact. Not that I will share this information with neighbours - they continue to think that we have completely missed out by renting over the last two years.
We continue to stand on the beach with our mouths open - watching people having the time of their lives swimming with the sharks. The sounds of everyone beckoning us to join them is almost deafening.
And to think I wondered what Amsterdam would have been like at the height of Tulipmania.