Flash
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Posts posted by Flash
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I'm glad you didnt say that you'd eat your hat. Hate you to end up with a nasty case of indigestion.
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/sto...sp?story=669060
Perhaps you should read this.
Perhaps you misunderstood me a little. I meant that, I am yet to read a reference to it because here in the Republic of Ireland, only bullish property news is reported (it is one of my favourite rants). Hence, 99% of people will be completely unware of the Aussie situation.
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My husband and I had 12 mths of dealing with dodgy Australian EA's. They are the pits. They all look and act like used car salesmen! I would not believe a word that came out of their mouths. Someone needs to start taking a stand against their bullsh1t. They could not care less about what happens to you and now they are even more desperate. Luckily, I was constantly sceptical of them and would not be bullied by them, even though they tried every trick in the book. Big changes are long overdue.
I don't think the problem is confined to Australia!
My local EA (Dublin) is a really nice guy - not. A house he sold around the corner me actually had a higher offer from a first time buyer, but guess what? He didn't tell the vendor because the another buyer he had was selling a house that he was marketing also - and he didn't want to break the chain, and miss out on a juicy commission.
When the FTB and the vendor found out afterwards, they were furious. But guess what also? No audit trail is imposed in Ireland. So it is their word against his.
He also likes to get buyers into auctions, with "ghost buyers" to huff the price up.
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There is no doubt now that a very nasty story is unfolding in the Aussie property market.
However, your man in the street here in Ireland is blissfully unaware as the mainstream media haven't yet picked up on the story - I am yet to read or hear a single reference to it. I am not holding my breath either.
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I note the BBC's business page is somewhat quiet about this survey reporting a fall in annual HPI. The land registry and Halifax figures have had the full "signs of recovery in the housing market" treatment, and a prominent link, in the last few weeks. :angry:
Amazing isn't it. The FT survey is the most reliable indicator of prices paid in the housing market, yet the BBC ignores it completely - not bullish enough I guess.
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David McWilliams is prepared to tell it how it is, when it comes to the Irish economy...
...perhaps that is why we don't hear him much in the media anymore.
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I hear Bank of Ireland are offering 120% mortgages to first time buyers.
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Did anyone actually read this, or did people just read the title and make up the rest of the article for themselves?
Yes, and I'm sure the other posters did too.
Over the past few years, some of the big lenders have started to turn their backs on income multiples, which they see as crude and simplistic.Instead, they are using a new criterion called 'affordability'.
This is considered to be a far more sophisticated and responsible approach to mortgage lending.
One high street lender even went so far recently as to announce that income multiples will soon be a "thing of the past".
Rather than apply a multiple to the applicant's gross annual salary, it sets out to determine the disposable income the applicant will have after all the other essential monthly spends and outgoings.
I wonder...Do they take into account future interest rate rises?
Answer: No. All the banks care about is their short term lending targets and bonuses for top execs.
The irony is, that all this easy credit actually compounds inflationary pressure already evident in the economy, as a result of high resource prices.
I take your point homeowner595, that this old news. I just wish the BBC would inject a bit of balance. That's not too much to ask is it?
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I've got a mate who's sitting on a €2m pad in Dublin - I'm trying to convince him to STR.
Not that he ever will. The truth is I only do it to annoy his wife, who is a self-obsessed, stuck-up, nouveau riche muppet.
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Keep borrowing...income multiples are a thing of the past...you can borrow up to 7.5 times your salary...more credit...gimme, gimme, gimme...AARGH! This stuff is really irresponsible. :angry:
I like the way the editor puts the following at the bottom:
The opinions expressed are those of the author and are not held by the BBC unless specifically stated.Rubbish. To give these guys webspace and to present the article in such a way, with nice little highlighted soundbytes implies support for its content.
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As I say elsewhere, when someone does not want to buy an asset it is usually because they do not want (or cannot afford) to pay the current price. That MUST mean prices have to move to allow the market to readjust to the mean volume.
Absolutely. This is a key point that housing bulls appear to miss. It therefore matters less that house price surveys say prices are rising. If volumes are lower, it means that fewer and fewer people are prepared to pay that price. Gradually the ship begins to turn.
It is a dynamic that is played out in any asset market: shares, bonds, commodities, property or whatever.
However, transactions in the property market take much longer to complete, and because the story appears to take forever to unfold, some people mistakenly assume that "it is different this time". It isn't.
It is similar to trying to sell £500k of an illiquid small cap stock. The market is quoting me a bid price, but try getting it! Ok - I might find some sucker prepared to pay (just as there are similar mugs prepared to pay current property prices) but it wouldn't be the norm.
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Central Bank officials, however, were reluctant to disclose such a figure in case it might destabilise the Irish property market, says the Irish Times.
Way to go Irish Times! - perhaps they should get resident Uberbull, Edel Morgan to comment on this.
Edit - Forgot to mention this was the main headline on the FRONT page of the paper! (Flash is feeling chipper today. Woof!)
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I remember some thug abusing me - calling me a ****** Englishman, etc., a few years ago - he was a visitor to the town I was working in (where I've had family for at least 1000 years incidentally). I'm Welsh but didn't have the right accent in his opinion. Depressing.
You are spot on gruffydd. We are judged by our accents because that is the only way these bigots can tell us apart. Your heritage or bloodline does not matter a damn these stupid racist thugs.
Speaking as someone who also has the wrong accent, I find that most people just accept me for who I am, which is great. That is, until the next Rugby or Football championship comes along, which is followed by all the pathetic tribalism - disguised as patriotism.
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These sort of people that claim to be ethnically pure really crack me up.
Oh well, perhaps I am just jealous as my heritage is English, Irish, French, Scottish. Perhaps I should start a site called notwelsh.com !!!
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Despite the Nationwide numbers being up, I thought the economist's comments were surprisingly candid and almost bearish.
But look at this from debt management firm, Debt Free Direct today...
The current weakness of the unsecured debt market will be exacerbated byimpending economic triggers, such as the weak housing market and the prospect of
interest rate rises as inflation continues to creep upwards. For increasing
numbers of consumers the 'party is over' and the 'debt hangover' has arrived.
Nice...this company is trading strongly, as are competitors Accuma and Debtmatters. That tells me I need to know.
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Direct foreign investment to Ireland falls sharply
Foreign Direct Investment into Ireland fell sharply from $26 billion (€21.6 billion) to $9.1 billion in 2004, according to a United Nations study that was published on Thursday.Overall investment in the EU plummeted by 38 per cent. Ireland is suffering because many companies are shifting investments to low-cost economies in Asia and eastern Europe
I wonder what 2005 will look like?
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I fear us 'Going Japanese' in Ireland before this mess is sorted out....
I know what you mean, but expect more guff like this from Banks and other VI's in the near future, as interest rate rises loom ever closer. I expect the media to hit us with an absolute torrent of bullish reports over the next few months. Be prepared.
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As the market tops out and stagnates, watch out for the government to step in and "protect the rights of owners". There'll be taxes on renters and subsidies to mortgage holders....
They can try! Ireland is fast becoming less competitive as it is, without the government deliberately making it worse by forcing the cheap labour to leave.
I do agree with you though, that they will try to fix it somehow - to buy Fianna Fail members just enough time to offload their property interests.
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Someone who can afford to pay 1600 per month on a mortgage can borrow 360,000 at 3.5%
If rates go to say 6% then that same 1600 per month will get only 270,000.
So a double whammy: existing homeowners see payments increase and inflated house prices must fall by the banks own rule of affordability.
Absolutely. But taking that further, once house prices start to fall what will happen?
There will be no more panicking to get on the ladder for fear of "missing the boat". Appetite for credit will dry up. The highly indebted will stop spending and start saving - damaging the economy (look at the UK).
Banks will slam the door shut on 100%+ mortgages too - reducing liquidity further.
Highly leveraged developers are still building homes like no tomorrow. Some will be forced to offload their stock at a loss and many new developments will probably not even get started. Expect wide spread lay-offs in the construction sector.
Many landlords are sitting on property with a negative yield now after mortgage expenses - What will they do if prices fall? Yes, sell up. What else can they do?
It is just incredible how much prime Dublin property is empty. To Let signs are everywhere. It's like everyone wants to be a landlord - chasing tenants that don't exist. But hey, what does it matter?, prices are going up!
Your average man here just doesn't see it as a problem - the boys from the ECB may help him to focus.
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The Channel 4 economics correspondent is Liam Halligan who wrote this excellent piece in the New Statesman this week........
Earlier in the year, C4 did a little piece on HPI and featured comments from a typically bearish Roger Bootle, pedicting an HPC. Then (back in the studio) Liam Halligan was asked about this and said that despite Bootle being well respected he "just didn't see it" and that "this may be a good time to buy a house"!!!
Economists....Don't you just love them .
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This was my contribution to the BBC page....
Why is it that the media (including the BBC) have given so much air time over the last few years, to so called "Property Experts" that are simply industry insiders with a vested interest in talking the overpriced property market up? I really feel for those poor people who have had their homes repossessed. There are many TV producers with blood on their hands today.
I bet they don't post it.
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His only value is as a contrary indicator
I think from now on we should refer to these types of VI's as CI's.
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Imagine the shock of an ECB rate hike before Xmas, and another one in January, and so on...
http://www.forbes.com/markets/feeds/afx/20...afx2297210.html
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'All in all, the recent recorded improvement in several leading indicators is encouraging and, in our view, increases the risk of early ECB tightening in December,' he added
That would shock the pants off people.
A Goodbody report out today is another warning on debt levels.
"The report, by economist Dermot O'Leary, says the accumulation of household debt over the past few years puts Irish households in a more vulnerable position in the event of an employment or interest rate shock."
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I think he means the Prophets. Though there are clear punishments prescrived in Deuteronomy, Leviticus, if Israel breaks the rules.
Isaiah was very bleak, and then there's Jeremiah, of course.
I'm only a Christian so what would I know. Are there any Jews out there who'd like to give us a run down of apocalyptic prophecy in the scriptures? I for one would be very interested...
...And at this time a friend shall lose his friends's hammer, and the young shall not know where lieth the things possessed by their fathers, that their fathers put there only just the night before at about 8 o'clock...
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Whilst the long-term trend remains upward, the bull has landed on soft ground.
Oh, it's soft alright Phil....It's also brown and very smelly....
Latest Irish Property Spin
in House prices and the economy
Posted · Edited by Flash
Bank of Ireland's - Dan McLaughlin
This is cracking stuff from one of Ireland's leading vested interest spin merchants.
I can't argue with his reasoning here. What he is saying, in other words is, if you pump the property market market with credit (100%+ mortgages), then that will cause prices to rise. Go to the top of the class Dan!
Priceless. So interest rate rises are coming and while that is bound to reduce borrowing demand - somehow the link between credit demand and high house prices, that we have observed for many years, will be broken. Yeah, right.