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OnionTerror

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    Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

    in House prices and the economy

    Posted

    28 minutes ago, crouch said:

    I have never said forecasting is of no value; just of limited value which decreases the farther out you go. The first is based on evidence; the second is just common sense as well as being based on evidence. 

    You are just using bluster ( I've much more experience than you and I know these things - in fact I may have more; you don't know that) which, if you'll forgive me, just begs the question rather than answers it. Just Google "how accurate are long term economic forcasts?" and you get around 150,000 entries which seem to say generally "not very".

    Just one small recent example from the US:

    https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/economic-forecasts-are-bad-budget-forecasts-delusional/

    You want to show that Brexit will unequivocally be bad and you can't - no matter how much experience you have.

    Although it wont help that we would be unplugging ourselves from EU regulatory systems at the wall.. 

    Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

    in House prices and the economy

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

    Not possible, trade/travel would stop in its entirety.

    No deal is an oxymoron. I doubt the electoral commission would even allow it to be put on the ballot paper. It is just a way of describing a different sort of and as yet undefined deal. 

    Even if no deal was to be put on “the” ballot paper, there would still have to be a deal after the event.  Thus you reject the deal currently on the table, for a worse one after the effect..

    Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

    in House prices and the economy

    Posted

    1 minute ago, GrizzlyDave said:

    There’s something that sits between doing nothing and spending billions; which should have been done.

    Heck they should have been planing leave before the referendum! Even a rudimentary plan. Camoron did nothing.

    The problem with no deal planning is that there will obvious problems, like Dover and Holyhead.  There will also be a huge amount of unknown unknowns, which will only come out of the woodwork after the event..

    Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

    in House prices and the economy

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, crouch said:

    Well, I don't know how much would be budgeted for contingency planning.

    However, the point about contingency planning is that it is done precisely because it is possibly needed not that it won't definitely be needed. What is "possibly"? I say it would be a probability of somewhere between 20-40%, considering the context. Is this a sufficient level of probability to justify contingency planning? I say yes and it's arguable that contingency planning would be required - considering the implications in the event of no deal - for probabilities of less than this.

    Just after the referendum, the thought of a no deal Brexit was in a low digits, if at all.   Moreover, would the UK be going into the negotiations with no deal on their minds; would this be seen as going into them in bad faith?

    In hindsight, after the Lancaster House speech in January 2017 is perhaps the time that no deal planning should have occurred; what Mrs May wanted and what was realistic, I knew we were screwed...

    Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

    in House prices and the economy

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, crouch said:

    I don't agree. If contingency planning was not carried out from June 2016 then this is a failure of both administration and governement. It is not a failure of Parliament; it is failure of the executive (May). If the CS did not press the government on this then they were also complicit in this failure.

    Would the govt and parliament allow potentially tens of billions of pounds be thrown at no deal planning; with an event that they thought wasn’t going to happen (at that time)?

    Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

    in House prices and the economy

    Posted · Edited by Dave Beans

    6 minutes ago, crouch said:

    In this context no deal is not regarded as an option; it is a contingency plan in the case that a more substantive deal cannot be reached.

    This is hardly rocket science is it? Any deal has not only to be agreed by the EU but also by Parliament, two very difficult conditions to meet which were known in June 2016.

    I think both sides thought that both sides were going to be competent and realistic, so no deal wasn’t going to happen - the Brexit process has shown up what a complete shower our parliament is..

    Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

    in House prices and the economy

    Posted · Edited by Dave Beans

    2 hours ago, dugsbody said:

    But brexit was sold as global Britain have more an better free trade deals with more countries.

    Are you saying we should go more protectionist instead? Are you ok with using false narratives to get people to vote for something, only to find out they've been used?

    It is really hard to keep track. Are we going global Britain with more distant FTAs or are we going more protectionist?

    Where is the mention of non tariff barriers in that link?  Article 24 of GATT is a total red herring.  I could go on..

    Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

    in House prices and the economy

    Posted · Edited by Dave Beans

    7 minutes ago, ****-eyed octopus said:

    Absolutely. trade will continue - some importers & exporters will disengage, some won't - meanwhile the can gets kicked down the road (after all. that's what we & the EU do best) until some sort of individual agreement is reached. But the agreements will be reached outside the EU's political grasp or not at all; it'll be up to the EU to decide if the importance of the individual import/export market in question is worth it.

      

      

    The UK has to decide what rules it does or doesn't want to accept, and then weigh up whether the damage it'll cause to the various industries that end up being left out...Its the byproduct of being so integrated for 45 years.  Seeing as the EU is 20 miles off the coast, and with them being our biggest customer, there will always be a tight relationship with them, one way or another...

    Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

    in House prices and the economy

    Posted · Edited by Dave Beans

    3 minutes ago, crouch said:

    I think the issue may be the state of preparedness. I just don't know that. An extension would just be to put into place some temporary basis for keeping things rolling. In all honesty I can't see the 27  agreeing to an extension for "shambolic" reasons.

    The EU already have; in December 2018, they have put in unilateral measures that'll last until the end of the year...

    http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-18-6851_en.htm

    Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

    in House prices and the economy

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, ****-eyed octopus said:

    I think the point is that we might have to strike unpalatable deals, perhaps more so than those that the EU can achieve, but they will be struck by our own government in the interests of the UK - & if the electorate is unhappy with those deals then the electorate can vote the government out. Thus we can develop our own strategy & decide which markets to go for.

     

     

    I wouldn't disagree with you there...

    Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

    in House prices and the economy

    Posted

    Just now, jonb2 said:

    Thank you. Every time the ERG opens it's big mouth about no-deal, it shows how truly treacherous it is.

    Selfish scum.

    It seems as if any agreed relationship, according to the ERG would almost be subject to treachery..Parliament and the population at large still haven't come to terms with the fact that any agreement outside of the EU will lead to a level of "rule taking"; until a situation arises in the longer term which develops the relationship into a proper two-tier solution.. Its a shame that EFTA has been pilloried so much, as I suspect what we get will be worse.

    Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

    in House prices and the economy

    Posted · Edited by Dave Beans

    37 minutes ago, jonb2 said:

    Dave, not sure what to make of this? Can you do better?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/20/much-to-fear-from-post-brexit-trade-deals-with-isds-mechanisms

    https://www.tjm.org.uk/trade-deals/bilateral-investment-treaties

    http://isdsblog.com/isds-qa/

    I know that the UK has a BIT (bilaterial investment treaty) with India, and a hard Brexit would damage TATA's future investment into the UK.  There have been murmurings that it could sue the UK govt for potential loss of earnings, as could investment foreign investors who would lose access to EU markets..

    There a theoretical case study about it....Here's a start...

    https://academic.oup.com/icsidreview/article/33/2/380/5004350

    Quote

    II. A BREXIT CASE STUDY

    The article explores how the FET standard and the idea of protecting the investor’s legitimate expectations could form the basis of a claim against the UK government for the consequences of Brexit. We will construct our analysis around the presentation of a case study. We consider the case of foreign financial firms that have established themselves in the City of London to take advantage of the UK’s much lauded position as the centre of European finance. It is argued here that the British government’s specific decision to interpret the 2016 referendum result as a mandate to leave the Single European Market heralds a fundamental change to the regulatory environment under which foreign firms had established themselves in the UK.

    Consequently, foreign-owned financials could seek legal redress, arguing that the changes brought about by Brexit (from the point of exit onwards) violate legitimate expectations protected by BITs that the UK has signed with their country of origin. BITs offer rights, protections and standards to investors that are in some ways superior to those enjoyed under domestic, or even EU, law.

    Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

    in House prices and the economy

    Posted

    13 minutes ago, ****-eyed octopus said:

    I don't see how that makes Canada not an independent country in any meaningful sense.

    Obviously total independence is philosophically impossible (try being independent of oxygen) but, as a country, we should be able to make our own decisions as to how, & if, we trade with other countries (such trade necessarily implies common standards). While we're in the EU we don't have that capability.

    I've nowhere mentioned frictionless trade BTW.

     

    Totally agree that the UK should be able to make its own trade policy.  It’s not only purely about trade, but also soft power.  That’s why I see no reason to stay in the or a customs union. We don’t need one and issues can be resolved without it.

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