dr ray
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Posts posted by dr ray
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The only sector with wage inflation will be finance - this will be a temporary high (augmented by the mini house-price boom in the stockbroker belt). This comes off the back of the QE/ ZIRP money benefitting them first and foremost
But lending isn't happening. There will be big public sector cuts (Labour or tory). Consumer credit is contracting
All deflationary.
I think you (and other posters on here) are confusing poverty with deflation. Quite possible to have poverty and inflation together - see Zimbabwe and UK in the not too distant future.
I see stocks, oil, gold and company profits (Apple, Banks) all rising faster than expected. The situation for UK firms and wages is almost irrelevant as the effect is global. When we had massive inflation in the last few years (HPI and gold up x3) the RPI was low due to falling import prices.
Growing economies elswhere will export their high prices to us even while we get poorer due to increased taxes and lower wages.
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Leaving pay cuts/wage claims aside for a moment I still don't see real inflation taking place. People and businesses are paying down debt and cutting investment (bar government job creation schemes).
I find it interesting that what is or causes inflation exactly is a major discussion point here on HPC, although I'll admit there are a lot of strange contra indicators going on currently which make it hard to figure out what's happening.
Inflation needs monetary velocity and outside the stock markets it looks pretty dead. Even then when I look at activity here (where I work) the transaction sizes are weedy compared to two years ago. Just having more cash in circulation isn't enough yet, its needs to be changing hands to mean anything and it looks to be going back to the institutions who issued the debt in the first place.
What- you mean like paid out to bankers as huge bonuses which then get gambled on property and commodities? Nah, that will never happen.
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That's the first sensible thing you've written.
You're welcome.
That posting was free on the NHS.
Any other sensible postings will need to be paid for at the going rate
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And without planning, utilizing a welfare state, managed to end up as the owner of a 19 acre smallholding while I look at park homes in Dorset for 3x my salary.
It 's going to change now DYIV.
Apparently they are going to pay the bankers huge amounts of money to prevent them relocating abroad and I'm betting my pension that they will do the same for NHS doctors.
I'm joking of course. UK can manage without doctors but we have to keep our bankers.
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Try to prevent Market collapse by imposing an exit fee.
You been away a couple of weeks?
Did you go to Australia to suss out that job?
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Yep. It's a house of cards.
And just what about all the people who lie their way into employment? Lie about this and that to claim insurance. Etc...ad infinitum. This whole nation is built on lies and deceit.
Chap on R4 this am - I think they called him Santa, which I thought was appropriate, said half of all mortgages in 2007 were
Liar Loans
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I'm not sure about the details - I can see pitfalls - but, on the whole this sounds like a good idea. For this reason I'm sure we won't see it implemented sensibly, if at all.
Get a hold of yourself, man.
Taxes are confiscation of peoples wealth.
Agreeing with a new or increased tax is agreeing that the government can spend our money more sensibly than we can as individuals.
No tax is a good idea except possibly the bare minimum necessary to enforce property rights and national security so that what we earn and own is not stolen from us by force (which is in fact what our government is now doing to its own population so that we have to pay a "tax" to employ accountants and financial advisors to enforce our property rights against taxation!)
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This has really convinced me that we need a radically new way of organising our financial affairs as a society. Banks should be the protectors of wealth, not a plutocratic group of legitimised thieves. The fact that their plundering continues despite the events of the last year proves how impotent our political class is.
I'm surprised the ba5tards aren't setting up private armies in anticipation of any attempt to relieve them of their wealth and property.
No need. We have a top notch police force to do that. Best thing is:.
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Its paid for by the taxpayer
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The Sunday Times October 18, 2009Royal Bank of Scotland to pay record bonuses of up to £5mIain Dey 168 CommentsRecommend? (27) THE state-owned Royal Bank of Scotland is planning to hand out record bonuses of up to £5m each in a snub to struggling taxpayers.The average employee in its high-risk investment banking arm is likely to take home £240,000, with the top 20 staff in line for payments of between £1m and £5m.
With soft touch Gordon in charge what is stopping them? We are an irretrievably corrupt nation and we have a government and Parliament to prove it.
The newspapers are saying he is going to hit the banks with a windfall tax to punish them.
Obviously this won't affect the employees getting bonuses.
It will be paid by the shareholders
And who are the banks shareholders?
The taxpayers and pension funds who manage our (the taxpayers) pensions.
So the banks will be punished by taking more money off the taxpayer.
They must be sh1tting themselves
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the recession is far from over...no matter what your Nulab masters might like to think.
I don't want to seem like one of the bulls posting as a bear that there is another thread about, but two things:
It seems a global effect. Nulab doesn't control oil or gold prices or the D-J.index
Secondly I think the possiblility that the depression can be deferred hasn't been taken into account in the "are we heading for meltdown/are we back to normal?" debate.
Perhaps this is "The Third Way"
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How many grams is one??
A sovereign is 7.98g but its 22 carat so the actual gold content is 7.315 g or 0.2354 oz. (just under 1/4 oz)
There are also 1/2, 2 and 5 sovereign coins and this year only a 1/4 sovereign. These are a simple multiple of the sovereign. To work out the gold value just multiply the price of gold by 0.2354 or look at the "buy" price on Hatton Gardens Metals website.
The coins in uncirculated condition command a higher price and the older they are the higher the price to a collector. Rare designs like the 2002 and 2005 year designs are also more valuable to a collector. If you get into collecting you will need to buy a book as there are many variants especially of victorian coins.
If you are just after the metal and buy an old bullion coin it is likely to be quite worn or even damaged from being mounted in a ring. New "bullion" coins from the Royal Mint are uncirculated but are sold for around £200.
A proof coin has a special finish and should be undamaged and also commands a higer price but contains no more metal.
All the coins I have had from LMO have been either uncirculated or in almost uncirculated condition (even KG V coins) and more valuable than the usual offering on ebay if you actually want a collectors coin.
After buying a few coins you will find yourself paying a little more to get a nicer coin even if this was not the reason you bought in the first place.
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http://www.craigmurphy.com/blog/?p=357
http://forums.moneys...d.html?t=215721
Have today had a snailmail from LMO, offering Golden Guinea and Half Guinea of 1787 - 1800...King George 3 for £1500 and £975 respectively plus of course easy payments of etc over 3 months.I have purchased a few of their lesser value coins not in the hope of appreciation in value but because they are nice to own and to look at, however when I received today's mailing shot I decided to check out values at Auction.
I phoned a UK leading Auction House and had a chat with their medals and coins Expert regarding the above mentioned coins, he was very accommodating, as it turns out the maximum price at auction for the full guinea is £150 and £80 - £120 for the half guinea.
http://blogs.mirror....company-th.html
.Nasty organisation, the London Mint Office. Why don't the overpaid bureacrats in Brussels and Whitehall stamp on such amoral parasites? I write from personal experienceWhy is this even worth posting? It doesn't say anywhere on the LMO website that it is a registered charity. If someone canny like me can buy collector grade gold sovereigns off them for less than scrap value it must be obvious that there are less canny buyers paying over the odds. Same in Tescos.
Is the chap in the quote so stupid that he had to go and buy the stuff because he got a flyer in the post? I bet you can recognise where he lives from the stone cladding and "realistic" fake cobbled driveway
I have dealt with LMO and found them completely above board. No unanswered emails or phones. No delaying postage so that you miss return date (scams pulled by Cash4gold apparently)
Never bought anything except gold at below market value though.
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Part of the "new Paradigm" was a lot of sentiment that "THEY wont let it happen".
THEY are doing there best to appear to be not letting it happen.
Im afraid that THEY can only delay proceedings.....and a return to normal is what Gordon, busted bankers and property holders can hope for.
I think hope is the best they can hope for.
Talked to my brother who runs a limo business in London yesterday and asked him about business sentiment.
He is run off his feet and there is lots of money sloshing around in the circles he deals with.
After the dot-com crash Greenspan stimulated the economy with low interest rates and that created a boom which lasted 8 years.
I do agree this "recovery" has no foundations but neither did the recovery from the dot-com crash and I'm beginning to think the Ponzi scheme can be kept going for longer than the next GE in the UK
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Listen, sunbeam, it would be handy if you have an idea of what you're talking about before trying to be sarcastic in future. My advice to you is to get your bonce out of the Daily Sport (Spurt more like) or whatever other nonsense that consumes your brain cell.
Bloomberg have for the best part of a year been trying to get the Fed to disclose which banks they secretly lent over two trillion dollars to. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=av_bCYnKeIUk
Despite being ordered to by a court, the Fed are still dragging their feet. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204518504574418761585852036.html
And golly gosh, according to another MSM report from last week, the money they lent hasn't been returned. http://money.cnn.com/2009/10/08/news/economy/bernanke_fed_balance_sheet/index.htm?section=money_latest
I could do with a laugh so I'd be interested to learn where you think the $2.2 trillion - a sum similar to the UK's entire 2008 GDP - actually is.
Here's a clue, it isn't stuffed down the back of Helicopter Ben's settee.
I think you will find, when you've been posting a bit longer, that Bloo Loo does know what he is taliking about. Many on here consider him one of the more insightful posters.
I suspect he was winding you up and seems to have succeeded.
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Nah, you're all wrong.
This is part of the stimulus package.
Announce that large TV sales will be banned and everyone rushes out and buys 3 or 4 before the ban comes in.
Heinz did it with salad cream about 10 years ago. Said there was no demand and they would stop making it. Everyone went and cleared the shelves and, as far as I know, they are still making it.
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+1
You'd find it hard to put a cigarette paper between the Tories and New Labour.
The difference as I see it is that the Tories will fvck you up the @rse, but Labour have the decency to offer you a "reach around" at the same time.
I'm not sure its even that.
The distinguishing feature of the last 12 years has been the contempt of democracy and individual rights which would have made King John blush at Runneymead.
We don't really know what the current Tories will be like but I don't hold any great hopes.
Once Europe decides our laws and the IMF runs our economy I dont think the common man will have any rights. We are in the final stages of failure of the democratic model.
Edited - looked a bit over pessimistic when I read it. We will still be able to Vote on X-factor so its not all bad.
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I would tell the electorate that we need to spend a little time looking under the bonnet before announcing anything.
Then I would 2 weeks later "address the nation" on all channels and radio stations simultaneously and very seriously explain to people in very simple terms just how serious the predicament is that we are in and let that sink in.
Then a few weeks later I would announce some obvious and really big steps that would hurt typical Labour supporters who have benefited disproportionately over the last 12 years. And at the same time I would go for the rich and tax exiles so that everyone could see we were being fair. I would launch a witch hunt on the 'tax advice' industry of banks, lawyers and accountants making it even more principle based with serious punishments if caught. The tax credit system would be done away with so that I could show how much 'spending' Labour have been hiding which also allows me to re-design and cut the amount of benefits given out.
And during the course of the Parliament I would redraw the electoral boundaries to be more fair and jettison Labour/Nationalist supporting countries of the UK before the next election.
But that would only be if I were hypothetically a Tory supporter.
The main beneficiaries are no longer Nulabour supporters. "Captains of Industry "who licked Browns ar5e for the last 12 years are now lining up to denounce him.
The classic Labour supporter have not benefited much. They might have a few more toys but are deeper in debt and working more to maintain their standard of living (not counting London Tube drivers who have blackmailed the nation and won -£60k pa, 35 hr week and 80 days holiday pa)
The people who benefitted under Labour will relocate if it gets too uncomfortable for them. The poor cannot be squeezed so it will actually be the typical Tory supporter who is going to carry the can.
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http://www.walthamforest.gov.uk/index/housing/privatehousing/house-proud.htm
The Council, in partnership with Houseproud, is offering an easy way to get repairs, improvements and adaptations carried out to your home.
Through the Houseproud Scheme eligible homeowners can apply for a variety of loans, which carry a guarantee of no repossession even if applicants were unable to keep up with repayments.
So what incentive to pay it back?
Who is the scheme for?
The scheme is aimed at helping homeowners aged 60 or over, or households with a disabled person of any age repair, improve or adapt their homes.
Typical works carried out by Houseproud include:
* A new bathroom
* Electrical rewiring
* Central heating
* A new roof
* Replacement windows and doors
* New guttering
* Plumbing
* A refitted kitchen
* Better home security
The Council will support applicants throughout the process and pay the £500 arrangement fee to the Home Improvement Trust.
Wow
I need all of those improvements on my delapidated Grade II mansion. Shame its not in the right area. I would apply like a shot, pay it back at a £1/week and plead poverty because my savings are all buried in the garden and not traceable (unless they come round with a metal detector
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They might even pay for a floor safe!* Better home security -
Yeah. I wonder If we'll see the Tories get in in May, take a quick look at the books then go straight to the IMF. The only question is; can we get to May before collapse?
Thats what I would do if I were Cameron. On the morning after the elections while Brown is still moving his furniture out so that there is no question who caused the problem.
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I just want to own a coin, feel it in my hands.
I'm afraid a sovereign is a bit of a disappointment if this is what you want. £150 doesn't buy a very tactile lump of gold. You need a Krugerrand or a gold £5 for this or else some silver dollars or British silver crowns which are a nice chunk of metal with a metal value of around £7-8. Very occasionally you can get them for £10 or less on ebay
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Hehe, Chards rip into them over this.
http://www.goldsovereigns.co.uk/londonmintoffice2009proofsovereign139pounds.html
Chards p!ss me off. They seem to think they are the only people who should be allowed to sell coins.
He rips into the Royal Mint, ebay, London Mint Office and anyone else with the cheek to try and steal his customers.
I just bought a rare 4 coin set of 2005 proof sovereigns for several hundreds of £ less than Chard sell them.
I never had a problem with London Mint Office. The odd time they did send a second coin I phoned them and they sent me a label for free return special delivery postage. Never any arguement.
Even when they found out I had applied half a dozen times they just told me I should't really have done it but sent another to my work address!
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Im planning to buy a single sovereign. Any advice?
Why?
Not being critical. Just interested.
It will just about buy you a one way airline ticket out of the UK but as a store of wealth one is almost pointless.
But you are right to start with one if you might get more.
Try London Mint Office - they will sell you one as a loss leader for £139-even a nice 2009 UNC. After you get it email them and tell them you don't want any more otherwise they send you another a month later for £350 odd. Get all your family to do the same (different addresses needed) and you can get more at the same price.
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Making a gold atom is very different from making a lump of gold. For example the number of carbon atoms in 12g of carbon is 6x10^23. There is simply no way to convert atoms in these quantities even if you covered the planet with reactors. Then there is the cost with the energy requirements far exceeding the value of the gold. Then there is the gold itself only Au197 is stable which you would make by bombarding Pt196 with protons but Pt is more expensive than gold. Other solutions starting with higher atomic number elements such as lead could be imagined but the decay chains produce unstable isotopes of gold.
If you want gold, then there is vast quantities of it in seawater. The reason nobody extracts it is the cost of doing so and nuclear synthesis of gold has the same problem. I cannot see any mechanism that would ever allow it to produced profitably like this. Gold is an element and cannot be produced via chemistry. If we ever could do this then we would have no need for gold since we would be as gods.
Yes, excellent post. I might add that the process of making gold, were it economical, would destroy the very reason for making it as gold only has value because it is difficult and expensive to mine.
If it was a cheap as chips no one would want it as jewelry or investment. It would make a good roofing material but it would need to be a cheap as lead.
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One big question for me is whether there is any substance underpinning the sentiment that has driven the stock markets up so much.
Sure there is. Banks have become very profitable*. So they should be with access to free money, their risks underwriten by the taxpayer and able to get a good returm by lending money to the Government or speculating on stocks, commodities or gold.
Its like Japan was in the 80s the more banks speculate on their own shares (or using the stockmarket ex banks as proxy) the more "profit" they make
* How did JP Morgan earn so much money in such a bad economy?
We begin with a bit of scepticism. After all, we know consumers aren’t borrowing. Consumer credit is going down. So they can’t be making money there. And we know businesses aren’t expanding, so they can’t be making money by lending to corporations either.
Wait a minute. JP Morgan is a bank, right? Don’t banks make money by lending money? Yes... that’s what we thought. Then who is JP Morgan lending to?
The only net borrower is the government.
The Financial Times confirms that Morgan’s “ US consumer businesses continued to bleed, with its credit card unit losing $700 million in the quarter and its retail bank... barely breaking even.” It wrote off $7 billion in uncollectible consumer loans – more than twice as much as last year.
Its mortgage group lost money too. And it surely didn’t make any money helping US business build new factories and expand payrolls.
All the components of the business that have to do with the real economy are losing money or barely breaking even. What’s left?
The news reports attribute the huge profits to “trading”. But trading is a broad category. And our guess is that if you look more closely you will find that JP Morgan made its money the old fashioned way – by ripping off the government.
‘You mean, JP Morgan took the feds’ money and is now showing huge profits because it is just lending money back to the people they got it from?’
Yes. But not only that. They’re also probably speculating on gold, oil and stocks... along with everyone else. The feds’ money has pushed all these speculative trades into profit.
‘And now, they’re going to pay themselves big bonuses, aren’t they?’
Yes. The papers tell us that “bonuses explode on Wall Street to a new record”.
‘So, then... when the next crisis comes... they won’t have any money in the banks, will they?’
Nope.
‘So they’ll have to get bailed out again?’
Yep.
‘But maybe the next time the feds will wise up and just let them go broke.’
Not a chance. Wall Street has plenty of friends in the highest places in Washington.
A report from today’s media tells us that “Geithner Aides Reaped Millions Working for Banks, Hedge Funds.” The aides earn about $150,000 for their government work. On the side, they advise the financial firms they’re supposed to be regulating – and get paid millions.
Ft: Almost Inevitable Fall In House Prices Ahead.
in House prices and the economy
Posted
The global Ponzi scheme has been kept going for a bit longer by sucking in more punters at the bottom. This time the punters are us - unwilling participants being forced to use our savings to prop it up.
Same as the Greenspan boom in 2000-2007 which deferred financial collapse after the dot-com bubble burst,
Question is whether we carry on as normal for a few years or a few weeks before this fails.
If you think it will take years then the response would be to borrow heavily and buy property and stocks and hope you get out in time. If you think it will pop in weeks then what?
Buy beans and gold?