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Bruce

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Posts posted by Bruce

  1. Intrest rates have a direct impact on the value of our currency abroad.

    Lower the rates and the pound plummets, as we import more than we export we have to pay more for the imports widening the trade balance.

    In addition investors leave the UK as the returns are lower.

    Lift the rates, and business goes under, layoffs, and more imports as the goods imported are more affordable.

    There has to be a balance, and it is very very fine.

    There is no balance, that is the problem, it is like a see-saw, a market and goes up and down.

    But all the time the global rates are going up the pressures are the same on the £, sooner or later we have to follow suit.

    There was big relief yesterday from a certain poster when it was posted that US rates were not going above 5%, why, cos he knows the UK would have to follow suit, but if the US rate goes another notch, we will be under further pressure to follow, if not the pound tanks.

  2. I'm looking for this data;

    1. Avg house price

    2. Avg salary

    In particular I need a contiguous set of it from a reliable source going back preferably 50 years. I've found some stuff but it's always back to the mid '90s... anyone know where I can get this stuff from?

    Thanks in advance.

    BTW anyone know what the webmaster did that graph on the front page with, my excel graphs always look so naff in comparison.

    http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/downloads/..._since_1952.xls ;)

  3. Ive found a British property company investing in Berlin called Speyside (SYG.AIM, 33p) listed on the AIM market.

    Having never bought an equity on this market I dont know how its done. Can anyone assist.

    Please feel free to move off topic shortly.

    Open an account here:-

    http://www.iii.co.uk/

    Then when you have placed some dosh in it you will be able to trade quite easily for £10 a time. A highly respected site.

  4. In reply to Imupnorth:

    You can have rising prices in a falling market where low volume will play an elevated role,

    EG:

    say for instance this hyperthetical example is total sales in the uk per month

    1)

    4nr houses @ 100K

    1nr house @ 200K

    = average price = 120K

    2)

    2nr houses @ 190K (-10K each)

    3nr houses @ 90K (-10Keach)

    = Average price = 130K

    Therefore as you can see from this simple example is that the properties have declined 10K each but slightly more higher priced properties selling it seems like prices have gone up by an average of 10K.

    Now if we look at the scenario when we return to normal:-

    4nr houses @ 90K

    1nr house @ 190K

    = average price = 110K

    So we can see that the average price will drop not 10K but 20K when we return to normal levels of reporting.

  5. Bubbles are infectious.

    For example, the boom in South Africa is caused by rich Northern Europeans (Brits included) withdrawing "equity" from their overpriced UK properties, and buying up property in South Africa (hoping to do the same as they have done in the UK, ie jack the prices up). This combined with the weak rand, has meant that huge amounts of foreign money has been funneled into SA property.

    Many can. The UK, US, Australia, New Zealand (increasingly), for example. I believe I'm right in saying that demographically SA's population is very young compared to developed countries.

    I thought the Rand had strengthened from about 16/£ to 11/£ over a couple of years so how is it weak?

  6. I think the standard new build cost for a typical house is about £600-700/m2 which would give you about 100m2 typical construction and much more robust. This is a scam and you could probably knock these out for about £40K tops, so a nice 20K profit for each unit.

    Who wants to import some log cabins for about 25-30K to compete with these?

  7. This is all a bit strange as this is what Stansfield said last week:

    "Been around the world tonigh - i - ite, still cant find my baby".

    Also, last week, Ed Stansfield said this:

    "Against a backdrop of consumer retrenchment, the first signs of rising unemployment and the propsect of higher taxes in 2006, we doubt that we will see a meaningful recovery in the housing market any time soon, even if the Bank of England begins to cut interest rates later this year as we expect," he said. "To us, the outlook is for subdued activity and further falls in prices as the overvaluation that has resulted from the recent boom continues to unwind."

    He is standing by his firm's long-held forecast that prices will eventually fall 20% and believes the latest evidence supports that view.

    This is from an article dated 5 days after the BBC article!

    See here:

    http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...topic=11092&hl=

    Why do you call yourself a monkey, you don't look like a monkey. :blink:

  8. First £60,000 home unveiled

    The first picture of what a £60,000 home could look like has been unveiled by Linden Homes.

    The diagram is part of Deputy Prime Minister John Prescott's new competition to create a quality home that could be made for £60,000.

    This week the Government revealed its list of the 33 finalists in the competition - which will see the victor win a contract to provide affordable homes for first-time buyers and key workers up and down the country.

    Linden Homes yesterday become the first finalist to reveal a cross-section image of their entry, which they created in conjunction with timber frame manufacturers Optima and architects John Thompson and Partners.

    The chief executive of Linden Homes, Philip Davies said: "By providing free land for the construction of these £60,000 homes, the Government has allowed housebuilders to explore innovative new construction methods that enable us to build more properties at a faster rate, for lower costs."

    Brilliant news that we will soon have some affordable homes, we should be grateful to the government as they always sort it out, does anyone know where we can get on the list for these?

    http://www.myfinances.co.uk/property/housi...036;8709967.htm

  9. How can you keep this site sensible when as a collective whole you won't tolerate an alternative opinion? You, collectively are your own worst enemies. You get a mention in the Times, however notice how the writer used the word 'haunt' of FTB'ers. I wonder if the ghoulish atmosphere inspired him? How can you ever expect press etc to take you serious when every other post is 'f'ing this f'ing that'? 'Hope they go bankrupt this, hope they go bankrupt that'!

      Lose 90% of your posters, or rather lose 90% of the posters attitudes and you might actually have a medium that could influence someone and something. Until then I'll keep reading the stuff you all knock out whenever I need my mood lifted.

    Banish, Ban and ignore the bulls all you like , you only have to look at the forum today to see where the real problems lie.

    KOTC

    I don't think anybody on here needs to influence anyone, I can see the property market crashing anyway, it has no choice there is no alternative, I have been witnessing the momentum of this property crash for a while, it is looking bad.

  10. Thanks Bruce - I see he's slipped into all caps... interesting.

    BTW, if anyone has any private messages from 'dogbox' aka 'property gimp' aka 'king of the clowns', can i have copies please? The grad students reckon this is potentially an interesting paper , and need some more material to try and get a deeper angle on this wierdo (if there IS a deeper angle of course).

    The fundamentals of this person point to desperation, adrenalin and fear of facing his own fear.

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