[Cash Isa In Ni]

I am a bit peeved at having to change at all - Ulsterbank is linked to RBS, so why do we get a really crap offer compared to the parent company!?

Yes - Ulster Bank is part of the RBS Group and, furthermore, underwent an extensive integration programme in 2006 so now uses RBS systems i.e. the Cash ISA product is held on the same system as that of RBS.

That said, Ulster Bank retains its own responsibility for interest rates (of savings and loans) i.e. the pricing decisions are taken in Belfast so that's the reason for the disparity. In actual fact, the disparity may not be so significant as I think the higher rates for RBS / Natwest ISAs include an additional one year bonus of 2% (only applies to ISA funds transferred in, rather than new business).

The Post Office's 6.25% rate is probably the best in the marketplace.

[Embarrassing "auction" In Ballymena...]

Sadly, as we will all realise over the next few years, there is no 'fix it', other than letting the crash take its course. We all enjoyed the good times - some of us looked around and realised it was all too good to be true, others didn't. At some point we all have to take responsibility for our actions - were it not for sites like this speaking out, even more would have been in trouble. Your tone suggests that if we all had just shut up, everything might have been OK - read some of the other threads on here - there's a wealth of information on here and the wider economy - things were never going to be OK.

Your thinking regarding this not being good for anyone is a short term, self regarding one. High house prices benefit no-one in the long term - inflation, lack of social mobility, crippling debt, a stagnant population, lack of disposable income, the list goes on.

I think, when this is all over, prices are affordable and we are all hopefully a little bit wiser, a little less materialistic and a little more focused on life rather than money, we may look on this as the best thing to ever happen to this small part of the world.

Great post .... echoes my sentiments 100% but in a more articulated, considered fashion

[Titanic Quarter Apartments Discussion Thread]

Thanks for the welcome everyone. I have to say this is very a friendly forum I was expecting to be tarred and feathered for purchasing an apartment at the peak.

TitanicDev, I haven’t met any other buyers yet but will be putting the word out. I googled ‘Titanic Quarter The Arc’ and this forum is about third from the top so hopefully others will find us.

Obviously the developer has to make a decent profit but I’m sure they have room to move on the price. I think we need numbers to convince them they really want to help.

Thanks Lagansider for the heads up regarding the Management company. Hopefully if enough purchasers come forward we can seek advice so we don’t fall into that sort of trap. The private forum is a very good idea and if deemed necessary I could sort out for free.

Good luck with the investment. However. please note that the developer may not have full discretion over price i.e. any price reduction may need approval from the supporting bank(s).

[American Housing Market]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

US still going down hard ( housing not mucky movies )

we are 18 months behind

True that prices are continuing to fall. However, the difference between the US and NI is that houses are continuing to sell in US if priced realistically. For example, sales of houses in San Diego during Sept 2008 were up 65% from the Sept 2007 total. Admittedly, Sept 2007 was a particularly bad month and, furthermore, most sales in Sept 2008 were repos ..... but it illustrates that, if the price is right, people will buy.

I find it hard to generalise about the US property market since its so regional i.e. cities such as Miami, San Diego, Las Vegas and Phoenix have been hit much harder than the national average since there was alot of focus upon new build condos whereas other cities such as Chicago have held their value during the slump.

[Oversea's Strategy?]

Hi all,

It would be interesting to hear the forums thoughts on the overseas market now that finance to buyers as well as developers is becoming a problem. Which countries still appear safe? Where have people bought and things are going wrong?

Thanks,

SB

I purchase condos in South East Asia. Is it safe? Hell no .... but I understand and appreciate the risks.

In terms of financing, I use Asian banks - however, the possibility to gear is fairly limited since its usually rare for a foreigner to obtain more than 50% / 60% finance in these markets.

[Developers In Trouble]

Interesting article.

I wonder as to the fall-out of the collaspe of the construction business upon the local banking industry since 80%+ of non-personal lending was to that sector.

[American Housing Market]

hope you have a nice "holiday" here....weather's the same as usual though

Back here for a few weeks. I love Northern Ireland but it can be a difficult place to love.

Interestingly, Belfast got a great write up in the NY Times on Sunday .... full front page and middle page double spread of its Travel Section so expect a few more US tourists over the coming months

[Titanic Quarter Apartments Discussion Thread]

Not a problem. the majority of people on this forum are very helpful. I am aware that this will probably not go down as one of the most astute investments in history but it is what it is and was purchase with the best of intentions.

it is vital that us owners and others can discuss this together.

Thank you all for your opinions, negative or otherwise so far.

Great perspective

In terms of other owners, I don't know ..... but, as an investor in high-rise condos elsewhere, if I can be of any assistance, just ask.

[Titanic Quarter Apartments Discussion Thread]

Hi,

Has anyone else bought an apartment in the Arc development?

The developer is currently refusing to drop the asking price, has anyone been able to negotiate with them on this?

Any other comments relating to this development are welcome. Lets work together!!

I assume that the developer is either worried about setting a precedent or, alternatively, that his / her bankers would need to give authority for a price drop.

Unlike most on this forum, I'm an apartment fan and I think it would be great to see a few high quality high-rise residential buildings in Belfast. That said, the price for these developments was much too high and, furthermore, I fear for their viability i.e. they were conceived to appeal to a non-discerning BTL market that is no longer here.

[American Housing Market]

Just thought that I would kick-start this thread again, since I arrived back into Northern Ireland this morning (I'm on annual leave) after two weeks in San Diego, one of the cities that has been most impacted by the US property boom / crash.

My partner is from San Diego and still owns a house there .... she bought it for $125k or so in 1994 and, at the height of the boom, it was worth circa $700k. At present, similar houses in the neighbourhood are selling for circa $450k - and, yes, they are selling if priced at that sort of level. $450k will buy a 1910s/1920s bungalow which is larger than most NI houses (ie circa 1500 sq ft), has front and back gardens and is within 1 to 2 miles of the central business district. In comparison, real estate in UK (esp NI) remains bad value for money.

I go to Southern California often and, this time, the credit crunch really did seem to be having an impact .... ie each Sunday when in San Diego, we usually go to a great diner for breakfast. Its usually a case of queuing for 15 mins or so but, this time, there were many empty tables. Similarly, we went to a downtown cinema on the first evening showings of Religulous and W and the theatres were never more than 25% full.

For me, the credit crunch has some good aspects. I am a collector of rare NY Yankees memorabilia and was able to pick up some real bargains last weekend. Interesting (and accurate) that the media attributed the low prices to the credit crunch:

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/10/18/...in4530875.shtml

[Northern Ireland Economy]

The main difference is that the Belfast office is in the same time zone as the London offices so that allows real time servicing and support of the technical needs for the London markets. Somewhere like Manila doesn't offer an option for this. Essentially Citi get to have their cake and eat it with the Belfast office and they get it (very) cheap. Sure, if things get really bad, Belfast could suffer but, as I said, it will be a long way down the list of targets.

Manila could offer that option since Citi's services located there are not to support Asia but, rather, primarily the US market .... with the result that most of their staff work shifts ranging from 12am to 9am or 3am to 12noon !!! Business Processing / Customer Service Centre buildings in Manila are usually much busier in the twilight hours, rather than the normal daytime

[Northern Ireland Economy]

As an ex-employee of Citi in Belfast I can tell you that, in my experience, the company had a very favourable view of the Belfast establishment. Although they frequently made fervent denials that they were shipping jobs from London to Belfast that certainly seemed to be the policy (i.e. roles that became vacant in London were filled with people in Belfast). You should not underestimate the difference in employee salaries between London and Belfast either - my educated guess is that most of the Belfast employees would be on no more than 50% of their London counterparts and that can be a big seller is tough times. I don't think Citi Belfast is bullet proof but they would be way down the list of where cuts can be made to make cost savings.

Obviously not a like-for-like comparison, but Citi has recently been closing some of their large business processing / customer service departments in Manila, Philippines (English-speaking staff, university educated, paid in the region of $20 per 12 hr shift). That said, labour laws in Philippines mean that they can make decisions like that much easier than most of the western world.

[Irish / Northern Irish Banks - How Safe?]

Well, Ulster Bank is part of RBS group (which includes Natwest, Royal Bank of Scotland etc) so clearly that will be affected by RBS having problems.

I'm not sure which others are owned by who, but I have a feeling many (all?) of them are linked with other big UK/European banks in one way or another.

Northern is owned by Danske Bank of Denmark. Denmark has been suffering its own house price decline (following from years of significant prices rises) so the situation appears similar to UK. In addition, similar to RBS, Danske Bank has had an aggressive expansion and acquisition strategy in recent years so I'd imagine capital is in short supply there too.

Whilst Ulster Bank retains its own banking licence, Northern Bank's RoI counterpart (National Irish Bank) no longer has its own banking licence and its rumoured that Northern Bank will surrender their onw banking licence in due course also.

First Trust Bank is a part of the AIB Group and, obviously, Bank of Ireland is a part of the UK subsidiary of the overall Bank of Ireland Group.

AIB Group is better diversified outside of the island of Ireland than Bank of Ireland so may be better placed to withstand the downturn.

Personally, I would imagine that one low-level consequence of the current financial markets turmoil will be that the NI banks will no longer be allowed to issue their own banknotes. This right is allowed for under 19th century legislation and the notes issued do not need to be fully backed with the Bank of England (in practice, they are only backed over the weekend .... which has the consequence of the NI banks obtaining interest-free funds from the BoE for 5 days out of every 7). HM Treasury had already been looking at this, and the rights of the Scottish banks to issue notes, but it was "parked" by Gordon Brown, as Chancellor, as he was concerned lest he upset the powerful Scottish political lobby in the run-up to becoming Prime Minister.

[Series On The Housing Market]

Thank you Sam McBride I thought you were quite honest for a journalist.

I assume that he should take that as a compliment

[New-build Flat/apartment Woes]

Sorry but the court doesnt take into account falling prices as an argument, i dont think legal contracts normally contain a line that bails you out because you realise later you got a bum deal! This is a legally binding document. You will loose your deposit be sued for costs and potential loss of revenue!

It depends on many factors, including the Contract for Sale ... some of the contracts actually cap any loss at the amount paid out by the would-be purchaser at any given time. That said, its probably more due to a badly drafted contract, rather than generosity on the part of the developer, given that these contracts are notoriously anti-consumer.

There is some legal precedent (in England, if not in NI directly) for courts not allowing developers to recover more than the amount of the deposit but the overall picture is a confusing one ... the likelihood is that there will be more legal certainty as more developers seek to recover costs of the multitude of under construction apartment buildings in the UK today. Even at that, I imagine many developers won't take legal proceedings against their clients .... given that in many cases, their clients simply won't have the financial means to complete and, therefore, its simply adding more cost for the developer.

Time will tell ....

[New-build Flat/apartment Woes]

I fully accept that it is likely that these properties will have fallen in value over the past year, my own estimate is that should the development be completed and i wanted to sell the apartment an EA would list it around the £200-£215 mark. These apartments are to be completed to a very high standard and specification (has anyone seen the show apartment?, if so i think they will agree it is of a quality similiar to very high end developments such as malone square etc as opposed to victoria place for example).

Are there indications that the development will not be constructed?

I saw the show apartment and was impressed (despite my general cynicism of property showrooms). I haven't seen Victoria Place but it certainly looked better than some of the recently constructed apartment developments I've seen in Belfast (some of which are scandalous - for example, Library Square). Ultimately, over the long-term, good property management is key to a high-rise development retaining its comparative value.

[New-build Flat/apartment Woes]

If you look at Obel listings there are 2 beds marked as 'Sale Agreed' at £430k and £335k. I must admit I didn't like the layout of the Apts and again don't think they are particularly big, don't appear to have a particularly large lounge area.

I saw these listed on Property News and cannot believe that they would sell at those sort of prices in today's environment. In particular, the dimensions of the second bedrooms in both units are very small (less than 10sqm in both cases), indicating the floorplans are geared more to BTL-ers than those purchasing a unit to live in.

I can only speculate that these two units were sold earlier and are now being listed again as "sale agreed" ..... to show the comparative "good value" of another 2 bed apartment in the development which is being marketed by the same EA for the lower price of £265k.

[Media articles NORTHERN IRELAND Hpc Related]

Most NI politicians have a very schizophrenic approach regarding the public sector ..... on the one hand, they claim that we need to reduce our over-reliance on the public sector by winning inward investment, increased innovation and efficiency etc. However, they are quick to shelter behind the public sector cushion when the economy is less stable

Furthermore, I thought in this brave new Northern Ireland, we were going to have a fundamental reform of the public sector .... with the loss of a very significant number of jobs

[The Next Bank Sweepstakes]

I am told that BOI s loan book is 70% property (Commercial and Residential UK & Ireland). Don't know how accurate this is but if it is???

I would assume that the Anglo-Irish loan book has a higher property ratio than any of the other Irish banks and I'd say it is higher than 70%. I could be totally wrong on these assumptions but commercial and property development lending was basically the only thing that Anglo-Irish concentrated on over recent years ..... and, for some years, it seemed to be an incredible success story as they ate significantly into the market share of the most established Irish banks and saw their share price increase dramatically.

[Moving Along Nicely]

Looking at the dimensions in the agent's description, its a very small house for a detached 4 bedroom property.

[Is Now A Good Time To Buy?]

Is anybody else getting the 'now is a good time to buy' speech?

Some of my family members have been telling me that I should buy now. They have been reading the Belfast Telegraph and listening to recent media coverage about the Fraser houses.

My local Estate Agent said that:

1. Banks are beginning to introduce good deals again and the market has definately picked up. In a

year from now the house prices will have gone back up again.

2. In April new funding becomes available for co-ownership which would further prop the market up.

3. Houses will never go down to rateable value.

4. Economics is all about supply and demand, there is lots of supply now, so a good time to buy.

Any comments, anyone? Oh and only about 3 properties in the shop are sale agreed.

1 - There are signs of increased liquidity in the marketplace, but no where near the pre-credit crunch levels. Furthermore, its very bullish to say that house prices will have gone back up in a year's time and, IMHO, it would be unimaginable for house prices to revert back to their peak levels in the next 12 months (I'd say that the odds would be in the region of 1000/1). When the CEO of Nationwide, a business that relies upon a thriving housing market for its balance sheet growth, states that it will be 2010 until the housing market shows signs of recovery, your estate agent appears to have his / her head in the sand .... or will try any tactic out of desperation for a sale;

2 - This funding will be insignificant in terms of impact to house price dynamics;

3 - Its a fallacy to think that house prices cannot go down to rateable value .... in fact, in many parts of the world due to recent price falls, the value of property is actually below rateable value (New Zealand being an example in point - and with similar dynamics to the NI market in terms of steep rises, followed by sharp decline / stagnant market);

4 - There is more supply now than there was in 2005 / 2006 (and the lack of supply contributed to the bubble). However, that doesn't get over the simple issue of why buy now when the market is declining and there are likely to be further bargains / lower prices over the coming months ahead. In addition, there are many new builds that are not on the market yet so there's no risk that the supply is going to dry up anytime soon ... far from it. Furthermore, with the net migration trends (Eastern Europeans leaving etc), it can easily be argued that demand for housing is declining.

Just my thoughts ....

[Are Property Investments Still Sound?]

I'm just bullish in the same sense as I was during the Nasdaq peak of 2000, bullish because I sold all my stocks while others were still buying.

Is that an example of bullish behaviour?

So indeed when all asset price had rallied for over a period a two decades (ignoring the 1990 correction in real estate and 2001 correction in stocks, which were bumps in a strong two decades bull market), how can one is not bullish. Price have corrected but are still far, very far from their natural equilibrium. I will turn bearish when asset price have return back to their 1990 peak...I suppose i will update then my profile in 2011 or 2015...just be patient.

Do you think asset (in this case, real estate) prices will increase or decrease over the coming years?

[Selling On Preliminary Contract In Italy]

Hi there,

Really hoping someone can help me with a predicament regarding the purchase of a property in Italy. We have been buying a new appartmant in Calabria in Italy, off plan, and have signed the Preliminary Contract and paid 50% of the purchase price (60,000 euro), back in November with view to completing the purchase with the developer in September 08. Due to a change in circumstance we had to arrange a Italian mortgage for the completion balance, which after months of waiting for the lender to approve, actually got declined!! We now have no other options to raise the final balance, and were wondering, rather than simply losing 60,000 euros, is it possible for us to sell on the preliminary contract to another buyer, who could then complete with the developer. I know of this being possible in the UK, but need advice as to whether it can be done in Italy and if so, how does the procedure work - Any help or advice would be much appreciated.

Sorry to hear this.

In simple terms, I don't have an answer. I do, however, hold some overseas property investments and the preliminary contract is usually explicit in terms of stating if, and how, the contractual rights can be sold on to another party. In my (fairly limited) experience, its usually possible to sell the rights on so long as you have already invested a certain minimum % of the purchase price to date (this would usually be less than 50%).

[Overseas Property]

I actually found that Zoom were cheap / no frills but that their actual prices were not. I was never able to price a return Belfast / Toronto flight with them for less than £550 or so and their prices for the London / San Diego route (only operated for one month before the airline closed ) were considerably higher than most transatlantic carriers (although it was the first non-stop scheduled service from UK to SD so would have been useful for me).

I always found flyglobespan offered a reasonable value service for Belfast flights to Canada and, furthermore, the Continental service to Newark and the multitude of connection options from there is invaluable. I had heard much talk of another US airline coming into Belfast, given the success of the Continental venture, and more competition would be good all round but I'm assuming thats' now on the long-finger due to the economic climate.

[Fraser Houses Dropping Prices]

Profit is irrelivant, its cash.

So do they have cashflow issues or not?

The reduction in unit prices would suggest to a naive person such as myself that they are looking cash quickly (or being lent on by bankers) so aren't as financially stable as some may like to think.