_w_
-
Posts
6,627 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Posts posted by _w_
-
-
So why didn't this undemocratic body tell people this was what it was doing? Rather than surreptitiously at the same time stuffing their pensions with index linked gilts.
I mean it was clear to those in the know - but what about everyone else? It is not right they 'lied' to the British people.
People can have no confidence in either their actions or their pronouncements from hereonin.
It is a key task of a central bank to lie to the public, to inflate without them knowing in particular. It's their job.
They are not supposed to be caught lying though. The termination of the central bank's independence by the bankers in government probably explains this particular moan and claim to have been doing 'the right thing' all along.
-
There are quite a few empty units on my high street (fairly affluent London).
In the window of one, the notice for lease says "five year lease with annual UPWARD only rent negotiations".
Having an empty shop is bad enough. This one makes me think of a beggar with a sign that says "ten pound notes only."
-
What a gutless hypocrite.
"Deputy Governor Paul Tucker said inflation was allowed to soar as part of a desperate effort to prevent another recession."
should read "inflation was engineered to soar"
"Mr Tucker said life would have been even tougher if the Bank’s monetary policy committee had hiked interest rates."
should read "if the Bank’s monetary policy committee had not lowered interest rates to nothing and injected tons of money."
The gutless wimp would like to pretend it sort of happened outside of their control. What happened to brave and honorable men in this country FFS.
-
We may yet see all European and UK banks nationalised. I can't wait.
-
Rheinhart and Rogoff would be a good place to start...'This Time is Different'
e.g.
That's one of the books I'm reading at the moment, I reached page 89 but did not get much insight from it and so put it on the back burner. It sounds like I made a mistake.
Thanks.
-
im not comparing it to the 30s really, im comparing it to pretty much every major credit boom/contraction in the last five hundred years (theres been quite a few) they all share common roots and trends, although all are different in their harmonics so to speak but laissez faire/protectionism are common to them all
With a few exceptions I'm stuck with the 20s and 30s for all encompassing macro data. It makes it hard for me to extract rules, if you have some book(s) or reference material that you could point I'd be grateful.
-
well i didnt say it would improve with trade barriers, it should make it worse (as its price fixing) which is why they are part of the contraction cycle rather than the expansion cycle, it wont stop it though, they are simply fundamental social aspects of the expansion and contraction cycles. What govts are doing today is immaterial really, things dont change overnight, its a large cycle that is reversing/consolidating if the boom has finished, itll take years to work through and what the govt and society want/expect today early in the cycle will be completely different to what it wants in a few years as its different to what it wanted a few short years ago. Things are changing, slowly but inevitably, some years will see fast change but others mild change, its taken a thirty year blow off off a general 80 year credit expansion in the west,its more interesting trying to understand longer term socio developments and changes rather than the next week or year
Yes but (sic:-)) WRT trade barriers this time we've made ourselves unable to erect them via international treaties and such (GATT, WTO,...). Although it is little advertised, we've lost much of our sovereignty today, to an extent that bears no comparison to the 30s wouldn't you say?
-
Back when RBS first fell to about 40p a share, I head rumours that quite a few of their staff were maxing out their credit cards to buy more stock.
They could still have the last laugh, but Im not holding my breath for the rebound.
They doubtless did it again and on borrowed money , pavlovian wildebeests e.g. smart money and all that.
-
I was just flicking through Bloomberg and I found something rather shocking ...
UK 10yr Bonds = 2.14%
German 10yr Bonds = 2.14%
Amazing, I know the UK is printing a few more pennies, and the euro is buggered, but this is still a massive surprise!
Discuss!
If BOE prints more than ECB then rates will be lower but the currency (pound) will eventually pay the price.
-
Do you really care if the tool being used to f*ck you is red or blue?
Painfully clear metaphor.
-
Or more succintly: the process is not bottom up but top down.
-
We need to rebalance our sense of values, for the sake of everyone.
This doesn't have much to do with values or morality, if anything. The policy is to stop the boomer generation from having to delever. It would hurt asset values and undermine the FIRE component of the economy that is currently running / ruining this country. It's not about popular values directing policy but about a small group of people protecting their interests (and buying 10 bathroom mansions in the process).
-
Really? Why?
It's worth reminding yourself of the IMF's report card on Ireland's economy, issued in September 2007, when it was obvious to all but the brain-dead that they were about to go down the sh1tter.
http://www.imf.org/e...007/pn07117.htm
Why anyone would take advice from this bunch of economic cowboys is beyond me.
They don't have more power, they have less. Their role is being taken over by the IIF.
The article is full of misinformation.
-
Since 1980 the West has been in a credit boom, credit booms are a function/go hand in hand with social inclusiveness , they drive each other via wealth and prosperity
That credit boom is beginning to unwind itself, The unwinding of credit booms are a function of social devisiveness, they drive each other via increasing poverty (this social divisiveness is already showing through even at these early stages). Protectionism in this part of the cycle is as near guaranteed as cross border laissez faire attitude in the other part. The only way it wount happen is if its not an unwinding of the credit cycle and we are still in the boom
I agree in principle but in this instance laws have been created by TPTB to make open borders mandatory. National governments have no choice in the matter today.
Also, with the extent of offshoring that has taken pace I'm not sure our terms of trade would improve with trade barriers; they may likely be worsened. Finally, our banksn are near 100% postured to service the fire economy. All they can do is gamble and sell financial products to the public (Tesco can probably do that bit better and cheaper). To reconfigure banks to service local production via relationship banking would probably take ten years or more, assuming this is what the government wanted which is not the case at the moment.
-
It is only matter of time before trade barriers become the way out of this.
Since 1980 western TPTB have made strenous efforts to ensure trade barriers are illegal and next to impossible. The odds of this happening are pretty low.
-
If you just print to make up the funding gap, the market will realise that you are going to perpetually print money, and next thing you know nobody wants the currency and you get hyper-inflation and a dud currency. I think that this is likely to happen now in Europe, and probably the UK as well
Here's an alternative view for you to mull over.
The prospect of currency crisis that would potentially lead to hyperinflation is not on the cards for now. The reason? CBs are coordinating their devaluation. This leaves no escape route for the value conscious saver and removes the old signal that currency depreciation used to provide. Hence the enormous printing that banks have engaged in willy nilly without consequence to date.
The problem for the UK and US is that Europe is attempting to remove itself from this devaluation / inflation circle jerk to preserve what is left of its economy. Should it succeed, the pound and dollar will become extremely vulnerable to capital flight and potential hyperinflation as the world will suddenly have an alternative currency and signal: the euro.
A lot of the pressure applied to Europe by the US and UK can be explained by this IMO as the consequences of a strong euro would be potentially catastrophic. China's currency is jobs, and the more western governments gut their economies with inflation the more jobs, productive capacity and know how move to China; European printing is all good to them too. Most of the EM countries either sell cheap tat or commodities to Europe and so would benefit too.
The threat to all these national vested interests is a stronger Euro currency. That the undermining of European policy is made by predicting cataclismic outcomes for Europe muddies this issue a lot as the real threat is a stronger European economy.
An alternative view that works quite well for me, FWIW.
-
Its like 283p or something, I'm sure it was trading around the 320-330p mark before the recent nonsense. Couple of months ago a few people I work with were saying sainsburys was cheap at 311p and they were buying lol.
They must have been the smart money.
-
How much of this could be applied around Europe if/when the Euro collapses?
This really sounds like an attempt at completely rewirting history at a time when Europe is probably contemplating capital controls.
It's not hard to know where it comes from, banks are the biggest supporters and beneficiaries of free capital flows and the havoc they wreck on a regular basis.
-
there is no smart money....its all gone.
Oh no it isn't. Trillions in pensions is managed by the smart money. To them, the materialisation of fear inducing risk is always completely unexpected.
But it's other people's money after all. You lose some I win some.
-
Wow. Yet more stresses, Belgium sees it can't afford to bailout Dexia, that Dexia is lost anyway at current 'high' interest rates and tries to get France to pay the bills. Sarkozy says 'Nein!' ... I mean, 'Non'.
Need ... more ... popcorn.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/dexia-bailout-verge-collapse-threatens-take-france-aaa-rating-down-it
Dexia Bailout On Verge Of Collapse, Threatens To Take France AAA Rating Down With It
Having followed the fortunes of the beleaguered Belgian bank from before it appeared on anyone's worksheets, we are hardly surprised that the EU Commission charged with confirming the good-bank / bad-bank restructuring is concerned at the deal that Belgium has with the French (and Luxembourg) government to backstop/finance Dexia's debt. Belgium's De Standaard (and two other European newspapers) today suggests the Belgians fear the EUR90bn deal is 'not feasible' as it stands (with a Belgium 60.5%, France 36.5%, and Luxembourg 3% weighting). Given the change in market conditions the commission, according to the article, is concerned at the ability of each country to finance its respective guarantee (most obviously Belgium) and therefore can renegotiate the October bailout deal. Belgian FinMin Reynders would not confirm the renegotiations but was evidently waiting on the commission's 'comments or additions'. The French are obviously not-amused and of course, any increase in the size of France's guarantee will further impact its ability to maintain the much-vaulted AAA rating.
The initial bailout deal was profitably traded via our suggestion of DEX-Belgium compression and as the orange oval shows risk was very rapidly transferred from DEXCL (Dexia's CDS level compressed - green arrow) onto the balance sheet of Belgium (red arrow showing how Belgium CDS underperformed France CDS).
The last week or two has seen systemic concerns creep into all of the spreads involved - though notably the spread between Belgium and France has been relatively stable around 110bps. Idiosyncratically DEXCL has decompressed notably as chatter about the deal's collapse grows louder.
We suspect that there will be some renegotation that pushes more pain to bondholders in return for France shouldering more of the burden and so a DEXCL decompression vs Belgium-France compression trade makes some sense (as a risk-transfer trade) but cost of carry is high. Perhaps the simplest way (and cheapest) is outright short France credit.
From De Standaard: Dexia Rescue Plan Is Not Feasible (Via Google Translate)
BRUSSELS -Belgium asks France to renegotiate the bailout Dexia Holding, also on the distribution of the state guarantee of 90 billion.The euro crisis plan unfeasible.From our editors coup de théâtre in the Dexia case. While President Jean-Luc Dehaene again yesterday for the special Dexia commission appeared to a clarification of the trap and the dismantling of Dexia shows an important part of the Belgian-French agreement of October 9 obsolete. In particular, the rescue plan that Belgium France and Luxembourg have agreed in early October for Dexia Holding (the rest couch, red), stands on the slope. And this includes the much-discussed state guarantee of 90 billion to finance the remaining banks - especially the more massive historical bond portfolio and the unsold subsidiaries of Dexia behind. Belgium dropped by France to convince the majority (60.5 percent) of the financing of the remaining bank Dexia is a Belgian guarantee to cover.This guarantee, Dexia to enable the next year to 54 billion euros from the Belgian bond market to pick up. This would come in direct competition with Belgium itself, that money needs to get his debt and deficit financing. The Belgian bond market is quickly drying up. This makes it impossible for the coming years tens of billions of Dexia to retrieve. Specialists estimate that for Dexia 'only' room for 20 to 25 billion euros from the Market.Since the agreement Dexia Belgium mistrust of financial markets, allowing long-term rates has increased dramatically: the beginning of October is 3.6 percent in Belgium paid ten-year loan, now it is 4.9 percent. And that has consequences for the rest of the financing bank."Dexia becomes intolerable as it is such high interest rates on the market to pay, insiders warn. French resort Belgium, France and the European Commission has therefore already stated that the bailout Dexia Holding need re-negotiation.As a possible waya new agreement in which the French, backed by Belgium, one additional share of the funding to take on. Much time is not. For the euro crisis threatens not only Belgium in need of money to bring the whole bailout for Dexia falters. Dexia Holding should not only pay high long-term market, it needs also a costly fee for the state guarantee.Total (financing) costs of the massive bond portfolio in the rest thereby threaten the bank proceeds to beat. Allowing the remaining banks are structurally unprofitable.All parties involved are treated with the hands in the hair. "What now?"The remaining bank fail let go is not an option, it reads. The consequences for Dexia Bank Belgium (DBB) could not be foreseen. "The Belgian state bank to the rest Dexia bank an overdraft - no guarantees, so - given 20 to 25 billion euros, and then that money completely lost."The only solution that Belgium sees that France itself the majority of The money the rest of Dexia bank needs from the French bond market gets.Belgium would be the part that France collects on behalf of our country, with guarantees covering. But the French are not designed for jumping.They believe that Belgium commits perjury. Paris itself is under great pressure. The credit agencyMoody's yesterday put pressure on France once again by openly to question the sustainability of the French AAA credit rating.In addition, in the spring French presidential elections.Dexia Belgium ruin.It seems that Belgium is 'pulling a Greece' - knowing that it has all the leverage and France has much larger exposure to the problem - once again the unintended consequence of capitalism wiothout failure is writ large.
-
http://www.telegraph...-of-reform.html
Cutting bonuses!? That's crazy talk!
Them's the wrong kind of cuts sir!
Don't go hillwalking this weekend Mr Jenkins
I've been trying to interpret events in the context of a conflict between the CB and the banks (and their political minions) and it fits pretty well.
A more honourable man would have fallen on his sword but I think Merv has, with little success, been trying to bring back some control tot he banking system. He's obviously failed and now the banks have won the end of the CB's independence. Check mate for the out of control inflationists.
-
http://www.telegraph...risis-live.html
Merkel spinning it's a political crisis....
They've been pretty consistent from the beginning. In a fixed currency environment, if one country can't follow a certain discpline you have what is basically a problem that requires a political solution. In effect rules that enable the immediate replacement of the irresponsible government by one that is able and willing to control its finances.
-
Rationale for near term $1000 downside target - page 12.
Silver on page 13
Interesting thanks.
-
We need more threads you say? How far will this crisis go? I guess it gets more serious as we go down the list.
The Big Fat UK thread?
The Big Fat USA thread?
The Big Fat Switzerland thread?
The Big Fat Monaco thread?
The Big Fat Abu Dhabi Thread?
The Big Fat Andromeda thread?
No Austrian thread that I know of yet so this one is the best I can think of, Anschluss and all that... An austrian loan ad:
Edit: courtesy of Zero Hedge.
Boe Admits It Let Inflation Soar
in House prices and the economy
Posted
He has none now, two weeks ago monetary policy in this country was entirely politicised and the bank's independence ended. What GB did in part Cameron did in full.