wren
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Posts posted by wren
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This could be a good guide to when we are in a bubble - worldwide data too
Gold ETF:
http://www.google.com/trends?q=gold+etf&am...=all&sort=0
Gold investment:
http://www.google.com/trends?q=gold+invest...=all&sort=0
Buy gold:
http://www.google.com/trends?q=buy+gold&am...=all&sort=0
These are probably better than the plain term "gold", because gold is used for sports etc also.
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I certainly don't disagree with any of your sentiments (I don't watch telly at all myself these days). However, I think sometimes BBC news pulls off something truly impressive - like their reporting of the collapse of World Trade Center 7 in New York 20 minutes before it happened!!
Here's the live report on YouTube:
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This one is very curious. BTL:
http://www.google.com/trends?q=BTL&cta...=all&sort=0
Notice that it spikes up every January. Any explanations?
On edit: But Buy to let doesn't:
http://www.google.com/trends?q=Buy+to+let&...=all&sort=0
Considering Belize is by far the main BTL place maybe it's something else.
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Quick question for the Gold experts on here. All replies welcome !!
What is the general consensus of what will happen when gold hits $1000 ?
I know gold is exceptionally volatile and goes up and down like a yoyo, but still could $1000 and this plastered all over the press push it up to $1100 in amazingly quick time ? I am thinking a couple of days.........
Thank You in advance.
$1000 will certainly be a landmark and it will be interesting to see how the media handle it.
Some old lags in the business seem to regard $1050 as more significant. Presumably for technical reasons which to me are obscure. Maybe psychologically that it would need to exceed that in order to overcome the fear of the very number, but I don't know.
But I am confident that in any event the "price" of gold will be up a bit, or a lot, or down a bit, or a lot, or stay about the same.
To make up for my poor prescience I offer this exceptional solo rendition of the bagpipes (Robert Watt, playing in South Uist):
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Using silver to rescue a bankrupt world would wrong-foot a lot of goldbugs - another reason why it might be the metal of choice.
The real goldbugs are very familiar with this. A few days ago there was some article, I forget by whom, suggesting that if a precious metals-backed currency were to return, China might favour a silver-backed one and use its clout to get it. Sorry, no link.
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The euro is like one big mafia instead of lots of little mafias.
Still it simplifies matters for many.
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You gotta be in it to win it. Why not averaging in?
Yes, but I'm expecting a largish sum of capital later this year (which I don't have right now). Assuming it goes mostly into gold (and silver) I'll probably dollar-cost average over a period of several weeks. Unless there's been an obvious big pullback at the time, in which case I would enter with it more quickly.
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Off topic.
Aah right, cheers. Being a bit dim.
Unusual place for a quake. Aren't minor ones fairly common in North Wales and the North-West?
How's the damage? Tiles off and stuff, I guess.
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Hope the houses aren't crashing in the Septic Isle!
What does Ot in the thread title stand for?
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For those that have read, understood, digested, prepared and taken avcion in the gold/silver world over the last 2 years+ please let me know your comments on what i am witnessing here.
All entities and variables are lining up exactly as planned, we are about to transit to the next stage of the gold bull, of this i am certain, sceptisism is about to hit optimism on the way to euphoria, i have just released a major amount of fiat paper from my various bank accounts and am ready for another major purchase, this will be my fourth in 2 years.
i am actually very nervous (not because of my decision but the circumstance we are in), the price of commodities, fundamentals, money supply, fear, greed is telling me i have to buy more gold - there was an attempt to drop gold this week, i expected it to be stronger than it was, the drop fizzled out - i will now be almost fully invested in precious metals.
CIGA's please let me know your comments are my feelings correct? what are your thoughts about the transition to the next stage approaching?
I have, I suppose, been a CIGA since 2002, but never had big cash to invest.
I expect to receive a largish capital sum in the second half of this year. I am praying that gold will still be below $1 100 by then.
Obviously I will have to reassess the situation when it comes, but at present I think that if it's sub $1 100 I will go long gold and silver with an ounce ratio of about 1:20.
Will have to see. The whole global financial situation is getting scary. I choose bullion over fiat.
And to answer your question, I believe we are still in the middle of this bullmarket, phase 2. I hope it will remain in phase 2 until the end of this year, for the reasons I gave above. But ignoring personal considerations, I think that although phase 3 could start in the next few months, there is still a good chance it will hold off till the autumn or next year.
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Erm am I being dopey? The average full time salary must be about £12,000 so a quarter of that is £3000 and i assume you are referring to an ounce price? So how do you come to £500-£900??
Sorry, I meant to say a third of one month's salary, not one year's.
The average, annual, gross full-time salary in the UK is, I believe, about £24 000; that's 2 000 a month. A quarter of one month is therefore about £500.
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I've checked the Maidstone, Kent, area since property-bee started a few weeks ago. Several 5 and 10 k reductions. Here's an increase of 25 k though!!:
date event
26th Feb 2008
* Price changed: from '£275,000' to '£299,950'
24th Jan 2008
* Initial entry found.
Well, good luck to them.Here's a 20 k reduction:
date event
26th Feb 2008
* Price changed: from '£325,000' to '£305,000'
26th Jan 2008
* Initial entry found.
Plenty of more modest 5 and 10 k reductions. Will be interesting to see in the summer if those 5 and 10 k reductions tend to become 10 and 20 k reductions if they haven't sold.
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i completely understand the preference for gold right now in the current climate but ive always found it difficult to value. the supply is easy enough to figure but demand is tricky to guage in hte medium term let alone short term.
i dont know about you but i can only think of demand for gold as "total investable funds minus demand for other assets" ie a complete defensive or speculative play. i appreciate many still argue people in india like it but how much can they really be wearing?
so my theory is, as other assets become less attractive gold becomes more attrative. and if most of the worlds is invested in US t bonds and the US is going down the pan i guess it makes gold look a good bet.
does anyone have any type of valuatio model?
I've puzzled about the "fair" value of gold quite a bit. By mulling over the history I came to the conclusion that it would be from one quarter to one third of an average full time salary, probably nearer a quarter (in, say, a G7 country). A few days later somebody in this thread suggested, I think, £500 - £900 an ounce, also from historical considerations which accorded with my rough estimate.
I believe people in India have the tradition of keeping gold primarily as savings, but at the same time they can be nice jewellery.
I agree with what you say about defensive, speculative and the attraction of alternative investments. I could choose between cash (in whatever currency) or gold. Under the prevailing circumstances I would prefer gold over fiat, firstly as a protection against inflation and secondly in the hope of a real gain. Better to say I'd be scared to keep cash, or property and in general stocks, so it's like hanging on to money till something better turns up.
Goldfinger's signature has a link to graphs of various ratios like DOW/Gold, UK house prices/gold etc. in case anybody hasn't seen them.
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Did anyone see that?
The price of silver just fell over 50c and bounced right back up again...
That's one hell of a short!!!
That downspike doesn't show on the kitco chart. It could just be bad data. I've sometimes seen definitely bad data from livecharts, such as with crude oil. Generally a good site though.
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Wheat is the new tulip.
Are tulips edible though?
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It might well have that effect, yes. And if there were a genuine shortage of adequate housing it wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing.Thank you for your kind reply. If it had been a BTL property would you have felt I was promoting an increase in housebuilding?Of course, a lot of the newbie BTLers are going to get burnt, because they were speculating on increasing prices and borrowed to buy instead of with capital they already had. Those who bought recently bought into a bubble and will pay the price.
Whether food commodities are in a bubble, I don't know. I was just thinking of general principles under "normal" circumstances.
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AS a result of surfing around after reading about gold and silver on these boards, I discovered ETFs. With the aim of making a profit I have invested in an agricultural ETF.
What do people think of the morality of this? I am hoping to profit from the increasing price of food and am in my small way by buying causing the price to continue to rise.
I don't see any ethical problem at all. Putting capital into a market which needs increased output helps it achieve that increased output. Or to put it another way the increased prices help and encourage farmers to produce more.
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To recap… a few years ago a wunch of bankers were sitting around on their fat arses wondering how they could make themselves richer.
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An interesting article from the Guardian. Farmland prices have been rocketing in the UK. A bit off topic, I know, but inflation is relevant to Gold prices:
The details are contained in the estate agent Savills' annual agricultural land survey, published this month. In the east of England, the value of an acre of good pasture rose from £2,250 in 2006 to £3,250 in 2007 (a 44% increase) and in south-west Scotland from £2,000 to £4,750 (137%). Arable land in the west Midlands was worth 49% more, and in north and west Scotland 60% more. The very best English arable can now fetch £7,000 an acre; in 2004 the owner would have been lucky to get £2,500.And a worrying bit:
Henry Aubrey-Fletcher, the president of the Country Land and Business Association, says the single most important factor behind rising land prices is the prospect of global food scarcity. He predicts that by 2050, with or without the effects of climate change, a large gap will appear between demand and supply. Another gap, prefiguring it, has already appeared; according to the government's chief scientist, John Beddington, world agricultural production started to lag behind population growth in 2005.Link: Guardian
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Finally, this term "chav" is deeply unpleasant. Why has it become fashionable amongst the middle classes to disparage poor working class people?
But doesn't the term "chav" refer to behaviour, rather than social class?
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Am I the only Überbear that thinks that the second great depression is coming? You guys are all so cheery :angry:
Well, a never-ending decline in global oil production will be very bad indeed. The UK is positioned badly for a whole series of reasons. Sometimes I've considered moving back to the UK, but the way it's been looking the last few years and with the future prospects as I see them, it looks like a bad idea for me, for the time being at least.
It'll get worser before it gets worster.
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Another big factor is North Sea oil and gas production. UK oil production is now declining rapidly (by over 10% a year, I believe). The UK therefore is forced fairly rapidly to transition from being a big oil exporter to being a big oil importer. That would be hard enough, but add to that the fact that global oil production is at or near peak and will probably begin to decline within just a few years.
Add to that the recessionary effect of the house price crash, banking incompetence and fraud, a decimated manufacturing sector, incompetent or malicious government etc.
Things will get worse before they get worser.
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Both of these are repeat tests of their highs coming up. They will either suddenly surge through which will most likely take gold with them, or they will fail and suffer a very large correction. Oil back down to mid 80s again. Euro down possibly into the 1.40 area. 850 and then 775 for gold are perfectly possible in big correction. If it doesn't happen before the surge it will in any event happen after.
In the same vein I predict that the price will go up a bit, or a lot, or go down a bit, or a lot, or else stay about the same.
Do I win a Mars bar?
The Wilsons thread ---merged
in House prices and the economy
Posted
It might depend on which part of Europe. For example, I live in Finland and I'm confident that the only thing that might make a landlord reluctant would be if somebody has a court judgement against them for bad debts.
I know unemployed people can get a place easily without references or anything. The deal is they have a contract, so they have to pay (if they're unemployed or something, they'll be getting benefits). If they get behind on rent payments the landlord can fairly easily take them to court.
I rent. The landlord has the equivalent of 2 months' rent as a deposit against damage or unpaid rent. My landlord (actually a youth club owns the place) kindly put my deposit into a special savings account in my name to earn interest. After being in a place over 6 months, the landlord has to provide 6 months' notice. I have to give only one month's notice.
Most landlords are nice and want their tenants to be happy.