Realistbear
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gold started the year at 1560$
I think they are basing their -2.10% on a year ago today. $1691.23 at time of posting.
George Soros might have queered the pitch for gold last year.
I stayed largely in US bonds (short and medium/Pimco Funds) and averaged about 10% which is not bad.
Hard to predict what will happen in 2013. Lots of anger in the comments sections in the press about immigration and money doled out to BRIC countries by way of foreign aid and Qatada of course. Doesn't look like the EU will go belly up with Germany backing the PIIGS. Israel will be under threat when the last piece of the puzzle drops into place--Syria under the Moslem brotherhood. If that blows up next year the US $ and bonds will do very well. That is, if any of us are left breathing after a nuke exchange in the ME.
For me, 2013 will be a hold on my bond funds and maybe a little dabbling in dividend paying stocks (GE, Honeywell).
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For all who were brave enough to make forecasts about this time last year (Crimbocast) how did we all do on predicting the main aspects of the economy: gold, house prices, sterling/dollar, etc.?
Sterling has hung in vs. the $ (1.60) and Euro (1.23) although the Euro has slipped a bit. Gold has disappointed somewhat with a -2.10% return for the year according to:
Arpound here, house prices seem stagnant. I bought in August 2011 and would say there has been a small amount of apprection as I have upgraded it on the cheap and bought on the lowside--but its a place to live for the foreseeable so I am not too bothered.
No collapse in the Eurozone although it seems to be hanging on by a thread with debt levels soaring as they create money to bail out the PIIGS.
Politically, Dave and George & Nicholas are becoming untenable now that Boris has declared his candidacy in a round-about sort of way. The MPs and Junior Ministers are getting fed up and know 2015 will be a bloodbath with UKIP soaring in popularity.
Deflation still looms and I think Osborne is not far off in predicting stagnation until 2018. With mass immigration not about to stop anytime soon they will have to build a lot more houses for the new arrivals or quadruple up in existing houses. Rents around my way are extremely high and almost nothing on the market--many heavily subsidised, of course.
CRIMBOCAST for 2013--probably more of the same.
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Up 5.56% over the past year which means it is outperforming most savinsg accounts by a good margin.
However...............................
Being the slightly bearish goldbug that I am, it seemed better to me to go into US bonds, especially the corporates which have outpaced gold over the last year.
I split my US savings into these three:
PIMCO Income CL D(PONDX) 1 Year* 18.76%
PIMCO Investment Grd Corp Bd CL D(PBDDX) 1 Year* 15.11%
PIMCO Total Return CL D(PTTDX) 1 Year* 11.19%
While gold has done well over the last year with well over 5% return there are better investments out there.
Not much happening with house prices my way. Stagnant at best. But it is nice not to be renting.
It will be interesting to see how everyone who did a CRIMBOCAST did this Crimbo.
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Realistbear not seen that name in a while!
This much is true. He always shows up when things start to get exciting again like bank failures, gold price collapses and Euro-woes!
What is amazing is that, after you have been away for awhile, you see the regulars with twice as many posts as you and you thought you were addicted! HPC is for life I suppose--beats Facebook.
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My deposits with Natwest made on last Friday are still not showing up and the branch cannot see them on their screen either. I haver a stamped deposit slip book as back up but it is not looking good. Went over to Halifax where I have an ISA and the clerk thinks RBS are not trelling the truth about the source of the "glitch" and believe it may well be a hacker. Evedn if not true, the rumour wil spread and undermine the whole edifice. I think this is the last straw for me and Natwest so I am off to Nationwide for my main banking as soon as I get my money back from Natwest which may be months.
We could be seeing the end of banking as we know it with the SFO being instructed on the Barclays Fraud and there is no doubt theyt have all been in it together.
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Check out my crimbocasts for 2012--amazingly accurate, even though I say so myself!
Get out while you still can--nothing lasts forever and there is no such thing as the new paradigm for metals.
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the strongest buy signal in the known universe known has returned
Check out my crimbocasts for 2011--amazingly accurate, even though I say so myself!
Get out while you still can--nothing lasts forever and there is no such thing as the new paradigm for metals.
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If it breaks below $1500 the long awaited panic sell-off may occur this side of the summer doldrums.
Looks like everything is taking on the shape of a pear at present. Fear about the Euro, surprise that gold has gone down as armagheddon kicks in--none of it makes sense from an investment point of view.
I wish I was still long on US $ for the majority of my starboardfolio but such is life when you buy a house due to being sick and tired of waiting and moving around.
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I hope you're very happy in the house you bought last year, and that you are getting on with your life, to use the well-worn phrase
Good to be settled after years of patiently waiting. Just watching the country go down the plughole now in other areas. Cameron is proving himself to be worse than even Anthony Blair and the Scottish disaster.
Looks like we are the only country to have "enjoyed" a housing bubble and not have to pay the price--at least not in terms of house prices. But everything else has gone up to make life just that bit harder for those of us in it together. Massive shift of wealth to the few from the many and even more power in the hands of the banksters.
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http://news.sky.com/home/business/article/16192562
Mortgage lending has remained steady for the first two months of 2012, but is up significantly on the same time last year.According to the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML), February's gross mortgage lending was estimated at £10.7bn.The figure peaked just above January's lending of £10.65bn.However in an encouraging sign, last month's lending figure is up 14% on the February 2011 total of £9.4bn.Have we had our crash? Anyone going to buy and not patiently wait any longer?
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http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2117065/House-price-boom-2012-Young-wait-longer-buy.html
New house price boom is on the way but the young will have to wait longer to buy, says Bank of EnglandHe singled out the ageing population, with one in six people currently alive in the UK expected to celebrate their 100th birthday, as well as thegrowing number of immigrants.Government policy is unfettered immigration to keep the banksters happy, dumb down the population and make sure we remain divided (a.k.a. "diverse") and fragmented and unable to form a cohesive force for rebellion. UKIP anyone? They are still trailing the LId-dims so it seems the country still likes the Lab-Lib-Con block and mofre of the same.
Exaspserating isn't it?
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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/borrowing/mortgages/9152459/House-prices-record-biggest-spring-bounce-in-six-years.html' rel="external nofollow">Sigh ....After the stamp duty holiday, it'll be the effing Olympics creating 'confidence' in our bwicks and morta
House prices record biggest 'spring bounce' in six yearsIf its any constipation, I am glad I bought last year as it is one less thing to worry about. I think we may have had our 20% drop alfready and we now face years of slight ups and downs which is the way it should be. Low IR saved the day for the housing market and that coupled with the government's mass immigration policy has robbed us all of the hoped for 40% drop from the top. We have turned the clock back half a century with more have-nots and a very rich layer of spivs at the top. We have the PM we all voted for and get ready for more spivs running things and scamming the rest of us (privateers to run our roads is the latest scam).
I had hoped more people woud have turned to UKIP but they still trail the Libdems in the local byelections etc. People are still stupid in this country.
Very dissappointed generally.
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Deflation cometh--the rate of deflation might suggest to some that hyper-deflation is just around the corner.
All that talk about hyperinflation was a bit silly nicht wahr?
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Billionaire investor Warren Buffett has dismissed gold as a valueless asset saying that it has no inherent value. In an article for Fortune magazine, Buffett said that gold investors were pinning their hopes on future demand.
I have been saying Gold was "fiat" for years. Its value is determined, like everything else, by the market. Its price can go up on speculation and it can easily crash on panic. A bit like vintage cars. Never worthless, as you need it for industrial applications and Tom Foolery.
Not down much today in view of Warren's comment: GOLD 02/14/2012 03:17 1717.30 -4.60
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Welcome back RB, you seem to taken all of January off posting here!
And ignore the nay-sayers, they simply don't realise that you're very long in USD and have a big VI in a sterling collapse. Personally I'm long in CHF and quite insulated from falls in the pound.
I thought a bit of drama in the headlines was called for in an otherwise dull and uninteresting day!
Actually, I am more in £ now having bought last year. 20% in US $ and the rest in £
However, if certain people pass on over to the other side, so-to-speak, the $ side of things may even up to the £ side so still a VI in both $ and £.
Looking ahead to the 3rd and 4th Q I believe the Euro will contnue to be the place to avoid with the £ and $ more or less constant after the £ drops to the low 1.50s. If I was a currency speculator CHF would be a good place as well as the Norwegian Kr.
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Pound Falls Versus Dollar as U.K. Home Prices Stall; Gilts RiseJanuary 30, 2012, 4:31 AM ESTBy Lucy LastikJan. 30 (Bloomberg) -- The pound fell against the dollar, snapping a four-day gain, after an industry report showed U.K. home prices stalled last month and a gauge of demand declined.
As if prices were not falling in the US and throughout the EU!
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And this time they cannot point to the weather given the rececnt record temps for a winter season. This nation is just "housed out" and sick of the hype, the greed and is focusing on more serious issues like immigration, pandering to asylum seekers, corruption at all levels of society and the way the nation is going down the toilet morally.
I am glad to have bought last year at about 20% or so from peak and still believe another 20% needs to come off to bring prices into alignment with reality. However, if immigration keeps going at current levels the demand will contintue to outstrip supply and those who have will continue to be able to afford to buy up loose houses. In my area, there is little available to rent and what there is goes for massive monthly amounts (£1200pm for a 2br flat bungalow, £950 for a dump--see below)). Government subsidies keep Brighton going and most of the outlying area as no one can afford the rents around here. It is still attracting BTLers unfortunately as retursn on other investments are sucky.
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-to-rent/property-21061638.html
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-to-rent/property-32880250.html
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British commuters facing western Europe's dearest fare risesBritish commuters are paying nearly 10 times more in rail fares than passengers in Europe, a study has found.
Something's gotta give soon.
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With a couple of days left in 2011, it is still possible gold may end the year close to where it began. Just one triple digit fall away and we have had a couple of those recently. I think the big money is betting on a Euro collapse early on in 2012 and the Euro seems to be going the way of gold in favour of the US $ and even the £ which is dropping a bit against the $ but holding its ground verses the €.
GOLD 12/29/2011 05:39 1537.00 -19.30 -1.24%
With China on the brink, especially their HPC, commodities may all take a severe hit early on in the new year. Gold will be tarnished with the same brush even though gold doesn't tarnish in the physical sense of the word.
However, with the war drums going in the ME and Putin refusing to join the UN in voting against Syria gold might get a geopolitical booster.Uncertainty is the word.
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http://www.kitco.com/charts/popup/au0365nyb.html
The hottest item, gold, received many predictions a year ago including a few flights to Mars. According to the 1 year chart, it started just above the $1400's and finished in the mid-to-high $1500's. Not bad but perhaps a bit of a damp squibb for many?
£ did okay and better than I had expected due, no doubt, to the Euro problems. I thought there was a better than 50% of a Euro collapse. It appears that the Euro is still going but we see banks taking cover and tings do not look good. Euro holding at 1.29 which is a long way from its heyday in the 1.60 region.
House prices. I thought we would see a 15% drop and it seems this was too optimistic--but perhaps some areas saw this much of a drop. In my area I suspect we might have seen 5% down but up North may have seen a 15% plus drop.
Stocks did not do well in the last 12 months and it seems the DOW did slightly outperform. The US $ had a good year overall against the € and the £.
Inflation: Trailing of by late in the 3rd Q and no signs of hyperanything. Another damp squibb.
How many up for a CRIMBOCAST 2011 with 5 or 6 key predictions for this time next year?
Here are mine:
Gold: Still no flights to the moon or Mars and another damp squibb year compared with expectations. $1200-$1700 range all year with a possible major collapse comig in teh 2nd Q.
Houses: Down 10% YoY.
Stocks: Doldrums and better to stay with US denominated ST bonds or currency.
Sterling: Will pace the $ against the Euro which will have another bad year--still a better than 50% chance of a collapse by the end of the 2nd Q. Should hold in the $1.45-$1.60 LT moving average.
Politics: Better than 50% chance of a GE in 2012 with a Tory win and UKIP moving into 3rd place with a cople of MPs.
Axes: Gibson to produce a Peter Green siggy tribute version at £5k plus (after Gary Moore's LP went for around $2m)..
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Dave need not have protected the Banksters then at the EU summit? Always thought they cost us more than they contibuted. Classic LEECHES.
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Believing that a +11% return is a 'bitter disappointment' is on a par with believing that GOD left the fossils there just to confuse the unbelievers. Having said that, another 10% decline and your 2010 forecast will finally be less awful than your 2006, 2007, 2008 & 2009 ones.
GOLD
12/15/2011
11:19
1567.90
1568.90
-8.60
The gold bugs were saying that it would fly to the moon each year and it never did--pretty good returns until it reaches the 1980 scenario and all those years of gains are gone in days. That is the problem with metals--too speculative and too many people get burned because they won't take profits but hang on for that last 5% or so.
With inflation plateauing due to collapsing demand and the China situation it does seem that a mild sell off is underway with about $200 down in the last 30 days or so. However, it will not be until you get back to back triple digit drops the 1980 point will be reached. And if you had held gold since then you will have noticed that you would still be losing IA (Gold would need to reach around $2753 IA for money back on a 32 year investment).
If I had got in at the beginning of the year at around $1420 or so I would probably bail now and take a whopping $140 per ounce profit because it may start to dissappoint badly over the course of the next few days. BUt few willdo that because of the hope of the trip to the moon (beyond the IA 1980 value).
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http://news.sky.com/home/business/article/16131100
Home Repossessions 'To Rise 22% In 2012'
A bit of Crimbo cheer.
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From Ian Fraser:
Snip a lot of interesting stuff...
Sniff, sniff. What's that I smell? I smell a GE coming up, and quite soon. Maybe April of next year if not February. If Dave shuts the door on the migrant flood, puts Freddie in stir and tells the EU to stuff it wherer the sun don't shine he is in with a landslide (UKIP in a strong thrid with its first MPs).
Opportunity To Force A Vote Of No Confidence In George & Dave
in Politics
Posted · Edited by Realistbear
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I am reasonably certain that their inane plan to try to boost HPI with the subsidies for the rich has caused annoyance on here. However, its the systematic destruction of the nation that bothers me.
21415 votes and just one week old. They have already acknowledged it at the 10k mark and say they will debate it if 100k signatures are achieved.