Predictions Archive

New forecast set at Sep 08. Given historical reference, global bank failures,credit restrictions and economic recession.

In our view, history and economics leads us to believe that the boom is over and there will be a gradual and cumulative fall annually from this point forward.

Our revised forecast.

New forecast set at Oct 10. Given historical reference, bank failures, credit restrictions and global economic recession.

James expects house prices to fall by 10% by the end of 2006 and also believes that this will result in a fall in construction employment of 5%.

Amidst all the doom and gloom, Allied Surveyors are expecting Scottish house prices to increase above inflation in 2008.

Mr Calverley, who successfully predicted the housing market crash of the early 1990s, argues in his book, Bubbles and how to survive them, that modern economies are increasingly dominated by bubbles in asset prices, be they shares or houses.

Assetz predict that house prices will increase by 5% in 2008.

Evan Davis expects that house prices will continue to fall, by 5-10% over the year. He also doesn't rule out the possibility of the falls being much bigger.

Evan has a knack of making the subject of economics interesting to the man on the street. He's normally pretty down to earth aswell but we're not sure about his prediction for 2007 but only time will tell!

Fred Harrison predicted a drop of 20% in his book Boom Bust (2005).

Fred Harrison predicted a drop of 20% in his book Boom Bust (2005) but he now believes the drop will be around 30%.

Brightsale's prediction is inline with the property derivatives market.

New research from BrightSale suggests that prices do not have much further to fall to bring them back to long-term equilibrium

Capital Economics see the economy slowing in 2008 and have cut their forecast yet again.

A forward forecast for 2009 stating that Capital Economics expect prices to fall by a further 8%.

Roger is one of the City of London's best known economists. As well as being Managing Director of Capital Economics, he is also Economic Adviser to Deloitte, a Specialist Adviser to the House of Commons Treasury Committee and a Visiting Professor at Manchester Business School.

Capital Economics believes that the UK housing market is still "fundamentally overvalued", despite price growth moderating in 2005. The group argues that house prices have raced so far ahead of wages as to make purchasing property unaffordable for many would-be first time buyers.

Capital Economics see the economy slowing in 2008 and have cut their forecast but they see no dramatic corrections.

A forward forecast for 2009 stating that Capital Economics expect prices to fall by a further 3%.

House prices in Britain could fall by 25 per cent before mid-2010, forecasters at Capital Economics have warned.

Revised forecast: House prices may fall up to 35pc over the next three years, Capital Economics has warned, in one of the bleakest forecasts yet for the UK's property market.

"UK house prices will fall through 2012 as the deepest public-spending cuts since World War II and tighter credit conditions deter potential buyers."

The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), forecast that average property prices will drop by 2.5% during 2008.

"The Centre For Economics And Business Research (CEBR) said prices will increase 4 per cent this year and continue rising until 2014, mainly due to a shortage of homes in the UK and low interest rates."

Mortgage broker John Charcol predicts that property transactions will fall by 15 per cent in 2008, gross mortgage lending will fall from �360bn to �320bn but house prices will only fall by 2%.

Cluttons predict that house prices will fall by nine per cent this year and by 1.5 per cent next year, with a peak-to-trough decline of 24 per cent.

House prices will fall by nine per cent this year and by 1.5 per cent next year, with a peak-to-trough decline of 24 per cent

In Central London, Cluttons predict that prices will fall by 11.0 per cent this year but will see a marginal growth of one per cent in 2010, putting the peak-to-trough decline at 29 per cent.

In Central London, Cluttons predict that prices will fall by 11.0 per cent this year but will see a marginal growth of one per cent in 2010, putting the peak-to-trough decline at 29 per cent.

CML predicts house prices will increase by one per cent during 2008, compared to seven per cent in 2007.

The CML's members are banks, building societies and other lenders who together undertake around 98% of all residential mortgage lending in the UK.

The CML's members are banks, building societies and other lenders who together undertake around 98% of all residential mortgage lending in the UK.

A bold prediction from the Council of Mortgage Lenders for 2008.

A revised prediction from the CML, down from their initial prediction of 5%.

A substantial revised forecast from CML predicting a 7% fall in UK house prices this year.

Deloitte�s quarterly economic review predicts that house prices will slump by 5% this year.

Deloitte�s quarterly economic review predicts that house prices will slump by 8% next year.

Deloitte now expect UK house prices to fall by about a third by the end of 2010 with severe adverse effects on household spending and investment.

Mr Pannell forecasts that house prices are set to fall by 30% nationally, but saves his direst predictions for cities such as Liverpool.

Tony Dye, who correctly warned that the stock market's bull run of the late Nineties could not last, believes house prices could fall 30% over five years.

The mortgage broker, firstrung said that predictions of gentle slowdowns were off the mark.

David Kuo believes that the average price of a house could fall by up to a fifth to �157,290 in 2008.

Jeremy Grantham of GMO, the $126-bn US investment fund, notes that UK house prices "could easily decline 50% from the peak, and at that lower level they would still be higher than they were in 1997 as a multiple of income!"

Dr Vernon Coleman Predicts a 50% House Price Crash in his book "Gordon is a moron".

Halifax said its forecast of zero percent house price inflation next year factors in two interest rate cuts.

HBOS are slightly less optimistic than the rest of the vested interest crowd but they still maintain that the economic fundamentals underpinning housing demand will be sound.

London is still the blue eyed boy when it comes to house price growth predictions with doubling their UK prediction for London.

The bank says housing market fundamentals are "sound" but price growth is likely to remain below the long-term trend in 2006.

Halifax had earlier predicted that the decline would be less severe.

Hometrack is forecasting price rises of 3 per cent.in Scotland for 2008.

Hometrack is also forecasting price rises of 3 per cent.in Northern Ireland for 2008.

Hometrack sees near stagnation in the UK housing market for 2008.

The group said the market was being starved of first-time buyers as people in their twenties and even thirties simply do not earn enough to be able to afford their own home.

Howard Archer has revised his predictions for next year down from no growth to a 3% fall in prices.

A revised prediction downwards by Global Insight.

A revised prediction downwards by Global Insight.

Global insight have further revised down their house price forecasts to show a fall of 16% in 2008 followed by a further drop of 15% in 2009.

Global insight have further revised down their house price forecasts to show a fall of 15% in 2009.

We suspect that house prices could fall by around 10% between now and the end of 2011. Much will obviously depend on how well the economy holds up as the fiscal squeeze increasingly kicks in, mortgage availability and the amount of houses coming on to the market.

Mr Booth says that more falls are possible after 2008 but also says that this should not affect the economy greatly as long as monetary policy is conducted appropriately.

Neil Woodford, goes further than his prediction to say that areas which have seen a concentration of speculative development and buying, such as regional metropolitan centres, could be subject to much sharper falls.

Neil Woodford, who manages �12 billion at Invesco Perpetual, is positioning his funds for a sharp decrease in property prices. His forecast for house prices is for "a 30 to 40 per cent fall over the next three to four years", a fall he describes as "a healthy correction". That would bring the average property price from �153,700 today to between �92,200 and �107,600.

Financier-turned-economic pundit Jim Mellon sees no reason to be optimistic about the world's financial future and has written a book called Wake Up! Survive and Prosper in the Coming Economic Turmoil

In a new forecast for the residential market, the estate agency predicts that the economy will progressively weaken over the course of the year.

Minor falls predicted for 2009.

Jones Lang LaSalle expect slow growth from 2010-2013.

Jones Lang LaSalle's latest UK Residential Market Forecast predicts this market revival is likely to be unsustainable and a fall in prices of -7% on average is likely during 2010.

"During the remainder of 2010, JLL expects a decline of 3.9 per cent on current price levels, reducing the value of the average UK property by £6,500."

Knight Frank's view is that prime London will cease to lead the UK market for the first time for two years.

Knight Frank predict that prices for prime residential properties will amount to about 10 percent.

Knight Frank, the international estate agent, predicts that price growth for 2007 will be led by Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Knight Frank has revised its forecast from a rise of 3 per cent in property prices this year to a fall of 3 per cent.

Knight Frank predicts that a continuing growth in unemployment, allied to wage freezes and tax rises, and a rise in average mortgage rates will force a number of sales which, in the absence of greater depth of demand, will see prices slipping back.

Lloyds TSB wrote one in every four new mortgages in the six months to June but still predicts a 10-15% house price crash.

Lloyds predict a further 5% fall for 2009 on top of their 10-15% fall prediction for 2008.

Ms Choyleva believes that the recent Northern Rock crisis will be the final straw for the UK housing market.

Ms Choyleva does not believe that there is currently a bubble in the housing market but does see a bubble developing if double digit growth happens in 2007.

John Van Reenen, expected prices to fall 20% before bouncing back but he doesn't state a time period for this prediction.

Mr Buiter says that on average, lower house prices don't make UK consumers worse off. They lose as owners but gain as renters.

Market Oracle believe that the crash will be led by the buy to let sector jumping ship.

An updated prediction from Market Oracle.

For Halifax Index updates; forecast of 15% drop for 08 done in August 07, bottom 2011.

For Nationwide Index; updates forecast of 35% to 40% drop (peak to trough) done in Sept 07, reason now low long term interest rates will hold prices up until bottom in 2012.

David Miles, one of the country's leading experts warns that the housing market is on the bring of a record slump.

David Miles, chief UK economist at Morgan Stanley predicts that house prices will fall by up to 20% over the next two years.

National Housing Federation predicts that the average house price in England will rise by 25 per cent over the next five years to reach £274,700, despite fears of a housing market crash.

Nationwide believes Scotland will be the strongest performing region next year.

Nationwide is forecasting 1 per cent growth in London house prices this year.

Britain's biggest building society predicts stagnation and says that economic tailwinds will turn into headwinds.

Nationwide is expecting Northern Ireland to be the weakest part of the country during 2008.

The Nationwide reckons the UK economy will recover next year and as a result there will not be a collapse in house prices. Overall, the society says it is "cautiously optimistic" about prices.

Britain's biggest building society reckons that house prices will end this year up about 8%.

Fionnuala Earley of Nationwide said she expected house prices to rise by no more than wage inflation next year - the current rate of which is at a four-year low of 3.3%.

Nationwide CEO Graham Beale expects a 25% decline between 2008-2010 in UK housing market before any signs of a recovery.

"The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) claims that prices will fall, in real terms, by about eight per cent."

James states that "UK property prices remain 44% over valued we expect them to go to a discount to fair value." (44% over-valuation would result in a 30.55% price drop)

Propertyfinder conduct a monthly survey of house buyer confidence. It's also worth noting that this website shows houses that are for sale on a map so you can see exactly where they are located....we think that's excellent.

Ajay has written 13 books covering the Buy-to-let subject including The Buy-to-let Bible and The Seven Pillars of Buy-to-Let Wisdom. His golden rule is location, location, location but he's still predicting a fall.

RICS have revised down their forecast to a flattening of prices for 2008.

RICS is predicting that affordability and accessibility for first time buyers will continue to worsen in 2007 but conversely it still predicts a rise for house prices.

RICS said it expected prices to rise on the back of an increasing number of sales. Last year the surveyors' industry body called the market right, saying prices would rise by about 3%.

Another revised forecast from RICS.

This growth is being driven by the acute imbalance between burgeoning buyer demand and sluggish supply with new instructions to estate agents close to stagnating.

It remains to be seen what impact the recently announced increase in capital gains tax for overseas vendors will have on the prime central London market.

Miles Shipside expects a "period of stagnation" for prices in 2008, with most sellers still able to decide whether or not to drop their asking price.

Whilst predicting a rise, Rightmove also go on to say that sellers will need to adjust their expectations according to local market conditions.

Savills have revised down their 2008 forecast from 5% to 3% growth.

Savills is forecasting a slight increase of 1 per cent this year.

Strong demand and short supply are the economic arguments that Savills are using to back up their 2007 prediction.

Savills, the upmarket estate agents, predict double digit growth in central London on the back of overseas equity and City bonuses.

Savills are predicting only a modest rise for 2008 but go on to say that they expect house price growth to pick up again at the end of 2008.

Savills also thinks prices in Scotland will rise by 4 per cent in 2008.

A revised forecast downwards from Savills.

The chief executive of Savills forecast house prices in London to fall 25 per cent by the end of next year.

Pam Woodall, Economics Editor at The Economist thinks the kind of irrational exuberance that gripped stock markets during the tech boom is alive and well in the housing market and there could be a severe correction around the globe.

UBS Economists say that the key issue for the housing market is "whether there will be a slow burn in house prices or whether there is scope for a hard landing.

Caroline Flint, the Housing minister, inadvertently revealed that house price could fall up to 10% this year "at best".

Roger Tidyman expects modest price falls in the first half of the year with some recovery in the second half of 2008 resulting in flat overall growth for 2008.