Thursday, Aug 13, 2020

Office for Budget Responsibility predicts 11% fall by the end of 2021

BBC: First-time buyers: Four ways the property market 'will be tougher'

Without First Time Buyers housing chains will grind to a halt, unless of course the BTL brigade decide to double up their portfolios.

Posted by tenyearstogetmymoneyback @ 08:15 PM (3680 views)
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1. stillthinking said...

and here as well (free article not behind paywall)

although its hard to believe the chart correlating GDP crashes with housing crashes when estate agent/realtor/property activity is itself a major component of GDP (for some mad reason).

Friday, August 14, 2020 07:54AM Report Comment

2. libertas said...

Our neighbour's just sold at asking price, in three weeks. They have a garden in suburbia and good sized house.

It looks like flats and central cities are plunging but houses and anything with a decent garden and reasonable internal space is going crazy on low volumes from the maybe 70% who have retained income and now have lower costs due to no commute. Remember, you get expensive properties in third world countries.

Saturday, August 15, 2020 02:48AM Report Comment

3. nickb said...

@1 I think sales of existing houses are removed from GDP actually. Sales of new houses are not. So there is still an inflation of GDP because of the land price element.

Monday, August 17, 2020 08:23AM Report Comment

4. crash bandicoot said...

@2 the no commute aspect means that people can find much more space and larger gardens for their money outside of London. Once your are freed from the commute there's really no need to live in London unless you want the nightlife and social scene.

The next step along is when employers realise that those already living outside of London can do the work of current commuters but at a lower price. Then we really will see a paradigm shift.

Monday, August 17, 2020 12:47PM Report Comment

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6. libertas said...

Actually, we are looking like maybe housing is showing signs of some kind of hyperinflation as people have been given money to not work, so money supply should have collapsed along with production but instead, money supply has increased with reduced production. That cash has not gone into consumer goods, because we see deflation there, they have gone into housing because that is defacto gold, something government struggle to print even with planning reforms you have to actually mobilise and build. If true, then the rise in house prices is a sign of a collapse in the confidence of government to maintain the value of the currency. They had wanted it to go into consumer items but that has not happened. This is the problem with Socialism of all forms, there are no proper mechanisms to establish the price value of anything and so markets collapse.

Sunday, September 20, 2020 08:11PM Report Comment

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