Friday, Jul 24, 2020

Negative interest rates becoming entrenched

UK Investing: UK 2yr bond yield

Rates are now firmly at -0.1% in private bond markets for UK 2yr bonds. Despite the propaganda, the global bond market is bigger than the Bank of England, which follows and does not lead the bond market. Expect a rate cut to -0.1% maybe before October, with BOE being behind the curve. Rates will plummet when the market understands that many furloughed "workers" are laid off when the scheme ends and when the V shaped recovery fails to materialise because as Sociailst dictators discovered elsewhere you cannot turn off an economy and then instruct it to turn back on again. Simply the realisation by entrepreneurs that their investment is at risk from nationalisation or shut-down is enough for them to decide that investment in a tyrannical country is not worth the risk.

Posted by libertas @ 08:24 AM (1017 views)
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8 Comments

1. libertas said...

The only solution is a constitutional law that cannot be repealed, like the English Bill of Rights, one that makes it unlawful for government to arbitrarily shut down economic activity. This alone is what is required to bring confidence back.

Also, we have to withdraw from the United Nations Universal Declaration of Human Rights, because it is Article 29(3) of that treaty that made lockdown possible in connection with international UN pandemic treaties which allow for the suspension of human rights for the purpose of tackling the pandemic. Article 29(3), which properly undestood demonstrates that the Universal Declaration acts to remove and not protect our human rights states:

Article 29(3): "These rights and freedoms may in no case be exercised contrary to the purposes and principles of the United Nations."

Article's 29(1) and (2) set out that the treaty creates a form of Socialism / Communitarianism that is not consistent with British law, customs and constitution, by underwriting this with collectivism rather than individual rights and liberties, with it being clear that the UN is the sole arbiter of what constitutes the collective and yet that body is completely unaccountable and undemocratic and even if it were democratic, Britain would have no independent voice being around 1% of the global population so we need Brexit from the UN Constitution, restoring Magna Carta, English Bill of Rights and Common Law as the basis for our sovereign nation:

(1) Everyone has duties to the community in which alone the free and full development of his personality is possible.
(2) In the exercise of his rights and freedoms, everyone shall be subject only to such limitations as are determined by law solely for the purpose of securing due recognition and respect for the rights and freedoms of others and of meeting the just requirements of morality, public order and the general welfare in a democratic society.

https://www.un.org/en/universal-declaration-human-rights/

Friday, July 24, 2020 09:31AM Report Comment
 

2. libertas said...

In fact, all we have to do is recognise the Magna Carta, which conflicts with Article 29(3), which cannot be done because the Magna Carta cannot be repealed. Article XXIX makes it unlawful to arbitrarily remove the liberties of an Englishman:

"XXIX. NO Freeman shall be taken or imprisoned, or be disseised of his Freehold, or Liberties, or free Customs, or be outlawed, or exiled, or any other wise destroyed; nor will We not pass upon him, nor condemn him, but by lawful judgment of his Peers, or by the Law of the land. We will sell to no man, we will not deny or defer to any man either Justice or Right."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magna_Carta#Clauses_remaining_in_English_law

Friday, July 24, 2020 09:51AM Report Comment
 

3. libertas said...

3yr bonds are the ones showing the greatest distress, showing that the market expects this to bottom out on three years time with full recovery not likely for 5 to 10yrs.
https://uk.investing.com/rates-bonds/uk-3-year-bond-yield

Friday, July 24, 2020 09:52AM Report Comment
 

4. nickb said...

How on earth do you leap from negative bond yields to a (foaming) rant about 'socialism'?

Friday, July 24, 2020 12:14PM Report Comment
 

5. deepak said...

Is it just me or someone is reading too much of conspiracy theories online while at home.
If you read through UK's position in fighting Covid-19, it has been the worst, next to Mexico among developed and major developing countries.

Asking people to stay safe to be able to live is not over making money for a few.

Maybe the question to be asked is, Why did the (so called) strong economy break so quickly? Because it was built on bad policies.
See the number of of business that are not needed at all and are going to close down. They did not provide VALUE to people they were present due to bad money management by Govt and BoE which makes the money in the hand of few.

The first thing I learnt in my Business Studies: "Every business should achieve a state of a Going Concern" what ever happens business should be able to carry on.
The argument fails that you need to open for business daily to survive. You have not put enough thinking and effort in making your business an On Going Concern.

Sunday, July 26, 2020 11:15AM Report Comment
 

6. tenyearstogetmymoneyback said...

Watch any documentary about the 1980s or 1990s and they are bound to mention how the UKs economy was shifted from manufacturing to "services". Each morning on my local radio station they have a "Golden hour" looking back at a particular year. There is one year, either 1989 or 1990 when the DJ can spend a minute listing all the new shopping centres that opened locally. I think it was similar all over the UK.

Even before lockdown many shops and related businesses were on their last legs. Local department store Beales established in 1881, was in the middle of a post bankruptcy closing down sale when lockdown started. The reasons are well documented; the rise of internet shopping etc. Something that rarely gets mentioned is the reduced range and attraction of shopping centres. In the 80s and 90s one of the big pulls for me was record / CD shops. How many youngsters still feel the need to checkout HMV, Virgin, Our Price, MVC, and maybe Game on a Saturday afternoon. Once you were in town you were likely to pick up a new shirt or trousers as well.

One of the excuses given pre-lockdown is that people wanted "experiences" rather than physical items. How will that work out this year?

Of course some businesses will benefit. I ordered a Summerhouse yesterday from a local garden centre. The salesman said that demand is way up, hence a lead time of 10 weeks and that consequently the manufacturer is about to put their prices up.

Sunday, July 26, 2020 11:42AM Report Comment
 

7. deepak said...

I have been part of a lot of small business seminars in the last few months. One thing noted was very few of them actually have a product to sell or did work towards creating a product.

Most people were selling services and their pitch would start as "We help business do xyz". So when happens when those business slow down or shut down?

What is your USP? What do you got to sell?

Sunday, July 26, 2020 10:54PM Report Comment
 

8. taffee said...

I would point out when tories got in 2010 they were going to rebalanced the economy away from reliance on service sector which was 70% of the economy

It increased to 80% over the years

Now coffee shops will save us?????

Let's make stuff that's useful and become more self sufficient

Monday, July 27, 2020 05:38AM Report Comment
 

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