Friday, Jul 31, 2020

As long as the housing market is up

BBC News: House prices bounced back in July, says Nationwide

I just do not understand this (housing) or any market. And I did study Economics as my majors.
I should take take all the Economics books, Keynes, demand, supply curve theories and throw them in the bin. Which is where it belongs, nothing is relevant to real world.
Being knowledgeable and educated on the issue has hurt me. As I have seen the issues coming which never came, so I didn't take the plunge and buy my house or assets.
No books tell you that the Gov't and Central Banks fiddle the system and equilibrium prices never comes.

Posted by deepak @ 04:24 PM (499 views)
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1. britishblue said...

Go back to 1999 when the government of the day announced they would abolish joint Mirus. (mortgage Interest relief at source) and see what happened. There was a housing boom up until the day the MIRAS was removed and then housing dropped like a stone. By announcing the stamp duty holiday, the government has done exactly the same and we will see a drop in March 2021.
I saw the dot boom and missed out on the dot com boom, sold my house back in 2003 as the economics did not stack up and have missed out on every major bubble because i could see throughthem. Whereas, i have friends who are economic simpletons who have fallen into wealth, by following the herd.

Friday, July 31, 2020 08:53PM Report Comment

2. taffee said...

It's been a failure of capitalism or more like a deliberate ignoring of capitalism

Prudent savvy people lose out while reckless become wealthy.. Companies that should fail are propped up

It can't continue and the fallout will shock...

Remember miras end which was 1989 if I remember then rates went up

Saturday, August 1, 2020 06:13AM Report Comment

3. tenyearstogetmymoneyback said...

Britishblue. You are eleven years out as joint MIRAS ended in 1988. You are right about the outcome though. My then neighbours sold their house and bought another one in less than a day as the deadline approached. It was like the housing market. ' Closing Down Sale". Buy now or never. Once the deadline passed the market started to drop and continued to drop until Tony Blair became PM in 1997, sold his house, and Gordon Brown decided to wind him up by rekindling House Price Inflation (my personal theory).

Whether true or not, it appears that other politicians and PMs remember how unpopular John Major was in 1997 after eight years of falling house prices, leading to negative equity and repossesions. It appears that the public will forgive all sorts of dubious politics but not Drops in house prices.

The event that I 'called' completely wrong was what happened after the BBC " Mortgage Madness" TV programme (it's on Youtube) in which Halifax were encouraging people to take out 10 x salary "Self Certification" liar loans. Coming soon after a huge fuss about MPs fiddling a couple of £1000s on their expenses I honestly expected Halifax to lose their banking licence and be closed down. Instead it was "move along nothing to see, the mortgage market is working perfectly and there is no risk because house prices keep going up". That continued until Halifax came within hours of going bust, by coincidence on the day I moved into a rented house having decided (with a lot of encouragement from this site) that prices were about to crash.

Saturday, August 1, 2020 09:45AM Report Comment

4. taffee said...

They were crashing but so badly they slashed interest rates to near zero

No-one could have predicted that

Worse still they started booming!

For groups that feel marginalised from society ridiculous house prices don't exactly help particularly when it's been a diberate policy

Saturday, August 1, 2020 10:03AM Report Comment

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