Monday, Dec 31, 2018

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City A.M.: UK house prices 2019: What experts say will happen after Brexit

Has there ever been a more difficult time to predict the future of UK house prices? Political uncertainty looms large over the UK’s property market, but experts have nonetheless given their expectations for the year to come.

Posted by wdbeast @ 03:30 PM (926 views)
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1. reticent said...

6 sets of paid "experts" and only one mention of buy-to-let. Do they really think that the market is being driven by Brexit? Is Brexit really only a London phenomenon?

Here's a prediction that makes sense. By January 31st, every landlord who bothers to do their tax return, which is supposedly most of them since the clampdown, is going to notice that the amount of tax they pay on the property has gone up significantly. The less-engaged ones, which is probably most of them, might then think to research this further. If they do, they will see that their liability will increase by the same amount each year for three further years. They might then reflect on the fact that the base rate is going up and rents aren't. They might consider rumblings they've heard of house prices falling in some areas, supposedly because of Brexit, rather than because of the 200,000 or so more engaged landlords who've already jumped ship.

Many more of them will resolve to sell this year "with no onward chain", once the associated tenancies expire, or maybe even before then. That will drive prices down further on the sort of cheaper properties that landlords own and lock up the market for more expensive family homes even further.

Wednesday, January 2, 2019 02:09PM Report Comment

2. sosoon said...

The tone is muted from the group that are generally much more positive

Thursday, January 3, 2019 08:49AM Report Comment

3. cyril said...

I've given up trying to predict the housing market as I have been consistently wrong for the last 15 years.
But reticent @1 makes a good point. Buy-to-let and pensions have had a major impact on the housing market. If you think of the BTL housing stock as a pension fund it's probably reaching that point where people are cashing in because many landlords are probably nearing retirement age. So they could keep their properties as a source of income in old age or they could sell them for a more stress-free life. (And of course you can't take it with you). I think the tax changes will encourage more people to sell up - but they will give some of the money to their kids, which will be used to leverage more borrowing for mortgages. So there will be a change of ownership but no major impact because the fundamentals are the same. i.e. base rates are still at 'emergency' levels as they have been for 10 years - so emergency is the new normal for most people

Saturday, January 5, 2019 12:17PM Report Comment

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