Wednesday, May 16, 2018

Red warning signs aplenty

Surge in down valuations

This is how it started in the nineties! spirals as lenders and surveyors put self protection above everything else

Posted by taffee @ 09:59 AM (2759 views)
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5 thoughts on “Red warning signs aplenty

  • He’s going to have to pay an extra £200 a year over a 1.69% rate. “Scandalous “.

    Meanwhile payday loans are charged at APR of 1,000 plus percent.

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  • I have been commenting on this site for 15 years and my thoughts have been proven wrong before. However, I have never come out and stated what I am going to state now. I am in the industry. I own a removal company. So we deal with customers that have sold and are moving. We are on the precipice of a huge crash that will make the late eighties look like a picnic. This time it is at all levels of the market. I spoke to a top end estate agent in Surrey a week ago. In 2015 they brought in excess of 2 million in commissions. By the 1st week in May this year they were at 42k for the whole year. They deal in the 1 million to 10 million range of houses. I spoke with another agent who is just a small independent High Street agent. They were selling 5 properties a week in 2015 ranging from 250k to a million. He said they are now selling 3 to 4 a month. He would know exactly how many he is selling so I suspect it is 3, maybe even 2. In South West London, where I live all the houses and flats I have seen complete this year have been at a 15% discount, But many of these prices were agreed last year. There has been a stark decrease in sales just in the last couple of months. Normally when you hit March, April, May, June it is boom time. Then it cools off for the summer holidays. This year the boom time has seen a dive off a cliff.
    I don’t know how they calculate the housing indices, but I do ‘know this is based on mortgages so doesn’t include all transactions and I think the Halifax Index has a Northern bias. Not sure about the Nationwide. It also doesn’t differentiate between a house that has had 100k spent on it and one that needs doing up, so naturally the better properties sell and the worse one stick.
    Whatever any expert says or predicts, here on the coalface a house crash is well underway.

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  • stillthinking says:

    @2 Twelve years for me…. but its been more like loitering after 2008 🙂

    There has been a lot of very conflicting news from our beloved authorities though, I wonder what to make of it. BoE now saying rates are going to stay at zero for another year because of sudden panic 50+ savers, but at the same time terrible news that our national savings rate (never good) is heading towards zero and nobody is saving enough… Can’t both be right.
    Carney wants businesses to borrow to invest for productivity but May can’t stop herself flooding the economy with cheap workers for immediate tax revenue.

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  • britishblue says:

    Ugly divorces are never good for either party. Only the lawyers win. Families are torn apart, friends distance themselves and it takes time to heal. Whatever side of the Brexit fence you are on, it is likely to be an awful time for the UK. If you are a firm Brexiteer you will be looking at the longer term benefits of an independent country. However, voters do not look to far into the future.. That is why Jeremy Corbyn is the bookmakers favourite to be the next Prime Minister. So much mud has been thrown at Corbyn that it is a bit like shouting wolf, the public has heard it all before. So unless he comes out with new controversial statements he will be the next Prime Minister. Whether you like or loathe Corbyn, Corbyn is in tune with the housing crisis. He knows that there is no shortage of land in the UK and in three years time if he announces a huge social housing project to build 2 million new homes he will be kicking into an open goal. In 2000, 60 percent of London households were owner-occupied and 40 percent rented. By 2025 if things remain the same it is expected that 40% will be owner owned and 60% rented.
    The rub of the story is that if that housing crashes are like turning a tanker round. It has started now and the effects will still be felt by the next general election. the Tories won’t be able to claim that Labour will ruin the housing market, because they will be blamed for doing it. the economy will suffer after Brexit. Just like peoples finances suffer after a bad divorce.
    Ex council houses on the outskirts of London are not worth 600K. Most are built with poor materials and even of they are done up it is a pig and lipstick job. What will they be worth in 10 years time if Corbyn gets in and starts the biggest social housing programme in history?

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  • I always enjoy a good blog anecdotal but the stories told hardly ever match up to the available data and the predictions implied by them never seem to pan out. I have no idea why that might but it’s a shame because a story is so much more entertaining than dry facts.

    The latest institutional grade data from only a couple of weeks ago suggests that the market has stabilised. Four out of ten UK regions saw slight increases in transaction volumes. Interestingly London was one of the four regions that saw an increase in transaction volumes. I’m referencing the same data that is used by the BOE.

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