February 2018 Archive

Saturday, February 17, 2018

Repeat until its fact

Reuters: Not so fast: Inflation may take a while to stir

It is -so- often repeated that low unemployment, over-heating, causes inflation. Clearly though this is rubbish, no company can pay more in real terms than the real output of the worker without going bust. What low unemployment shows up is too much lending (i.e. new money credit expansion) when there aren't enough workers. As in, wage inflation is a monetary phenomenon, too much money, and -not- a low unemployment phenomenon. Wage inflation is the revelation of a balls up by the central banks with too loose monetary conditions and takes 4 years too put the toothpaste back in.

Posted by stillthinking @ 08:08 PM 3 Comments

Friday, February 16, 2018

A generation enjoying a better life than their parents. Not.

BBC News: Mid-earners 'locked out of buying a home'

The extent to which young people are locked out of the British housing market has been revealed in new figures from economists. The biggest decline in home ownership in the last 20 years has been among middle-income 25 to 34-year-olds, the Institute for Fiscal Studies said. In 1995-96, 65% of this group owned a home, but just 27% do in 2015-16, with the biggest drop in south-east England. Middle earners are defined as having take-home pay of £22,200 to £30,600. This can be either as an individual or as a couple. A third of them are university graduates, while 30% left school at 16. Three-quarters of them live with a partner, and around 60% have children.

Posted by quiet guy @ 09:17 AM 13 Comments

Wednesday, February 14, 2018

England & Wales -0.4%, London -4.3% YoY

Evening standard: London leads house price plunge into ‘the red zone’ as market records worst performance since financial crisis

In answer to Frizzers' post below ... the capital heads a year on year slide, now reflected in E&W figures too.

Posted by nickb @ 10:23 AM 4 Comments

Estate agents, housebuilders and the outlook for UK house prices

Moneyweek: Estate agents, housebuilders and the outlook for UK house prices

For the last two or three years, the UK housing market has gone nowhere. Is that likely to change in 2018?

Posted by frizzers @ 10:16 AM 1 Comments

Monday, February 12, 2018

A true class divide

Guardian: UK tenants paid record £50bn in rents in 2017

Rents double in a decade and could eclipse entire sum paid for mortgages by homeowners

Posted by tom101 @ 11:12 AM 1 Comments

Saturday, February 10, 2018

SMI being withdrawn and replaced with a loan

Mirror: Thousands facing real hardship and even repossession as vital benefit replaced with loan

On the forums I would be flamed for "pitying the homeowner". I get the moral hazard associated with supporting mortgage interest payments with benefits, on the other hand this is going to affect vulnerable groups. Good for house price deflation, but, many cases of cruelty...? Looking at benefits blogs https://community.scope.org.uk/discussion/38559/smi-support-for-mortgage-interest-ending many people selling up and then claiming HBI which is more expensive! So I guess councils will also reduce hbi?

Posted by nickb @ 12:50 PM 6 Comments

Friday, February 9, 2018

Gravy train starting to dry up ?

BBC: Jump in landlords facing serious mortgage arrears

The number of landlords who are seriously behind with their mortgage payments has jumped by 20%, according to UK Finance. There were 1,200 buy-to-let mortgages in "significant arrears" in the last quarter of 2017, a fifth higher than in the same quarter in 2016 In contrast the number of homeowners with arrears of more than 2.5% fell by 7% (which isn't hugely surprising given low interest rates).

Posted by tenyearstogetmymoneyback @ 09:35 PM 0 Comments

Wednesday, February 7, 2018

Halifax: Jan -0.6% MoM ...

Halifax: Annual house price growth slows to 2.2%

and now says December was -0.8% MoM ...

Posted by nickb @ 02:11 PM 2 Comments

Tuesday, February 6, 2018

The bizarre process of life support being withdrawn from the economy is beginning

Beeb: London shares join market rout

I appreciate that interest rates are inversely related to stock prices, but total salaries are a measure of GDP. The continual cycle of good economic news leads to fears of tightening, leads to markets crashing, leads to further tightening trundles on. However, Trump's hawkish pronouncements on IRs, the Fed, his attacks on Yellen during the campaign, coupled with the new chairman of the fed, not to mention the nature of the news this time (ie consumers are finally benefiting from the recovery) tells me the deadlock is going to break and US (and consequently global) IRs are finally rising.

Posted by reticent @ 11:29 AM 7 Comments

Friday, February 2, 2018

Too late

Spectator: Tories should imitate – not attack – Jeremy Corbyn’s land policy

Article is a good summary of the inequity and absurdity of planning permission valuations trumping all else. I would say though, that people in general are wise to the idea of "forward guidance" whether central bank or otherwise i.e. you can reduce current prices by setting expectations that future purchases will be compulsory and at lower valuations. Clearly getting planning permission on agricultural land that you own is more akin to a lottery win than anything else. However, I think the Tories are out of time now, even a 4 year phasing in which started 6 years ago too little too late. The next election is 4 years away, it is too late for the incumbent government to fix housing and they will be generationally wiped out imo.

Posted by stillthinking @ 04:35 PM 1 Comments

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