July 2017 Archive

Thursday, July 27, 2017

Caveat emptor

Grauniad: Leasehold houses and the ground rent scandal

Apparently much of the newbuild stock of houses has leasehold arrangments, with clauses such that the ground rent doubles every 10 years! So a guaranteed return to a spiv or offshore entity (ultimately the same) of 7% p.a. I won't bore you with the anecdote about the chessboard and the exponential function, but by 2060 many houses would have groundrent charges of over £10,000 p.a. And so by 2090 £80,000 p.a. In related articles, a figure is given of 42% of new houses with leasehold, and it is pointed out that England is one of the few places in the world where leasehold remains, it being formerly spread through the Empire. Christ...

Posted by nickb @ 06:23 PM 3 Comments

Monday, July 24, 2017

QE, source of asset-price inflation and rising inequality

RT: QE, the largest transfer of wealth in history

QE has inflated the prices of property and other assets and in other ways enabled the wealthy to steal the wages of workers, in addition to causing havoc in 'emerging markets'. But what's do be done now? If the Fed, BoE and ECB unwind QE, sell govt securities into the market and raise IRs that's a lot of taxation to be raised to pay off the interest on the national debt. The Fed, e.g., is planning to do these things, with fed funds rate going up to 3.5%. Eventually US taxpayers would be paying bondholders over $800bn a year in interest alone. Is Japan on the right track? It creates lots of money for the BoJ to buy back the govt debt and to pay the interest to the govt - an interest-free debt rolled over each year - effectively a debt cancellation.

Posted by icarus @ 01:15 PM 8 Comments

Saturday, July 22, 2017

Warning of the impending BTL bubble burst

Telegraph: The buy-to-let stampede begins:

Buy-to-let investors now face tougher conditions. A weakening housing market, tough new legislation and the tightening of affordability checks by lenders are but a few problems causing landlords to run for the hills

Posted by wdbeast @ 08:25 AM 9 Comments

Thursday, July 13, 2017

Property Market In State of Lethargy

BBC: Estate agents have lowest stock of homes for 40 years

Both titles are from the BBC, the Lethargy one being from their home page. I guess that with current prices estate agents only need to sell one or two houses a month to make a nice living.

Posted by tenyearstogetmymoneyback @ 06:07 AM 23 Comments

Monday, July 10, 2017

There is no Missteeq ... this really is Scandalous

FT Adviser: Limited company buy-to-let is next mis-selling scandal

Heads you win.... errrr tails you don't lose!

Posted by techieman @ 12:39 PM 8 Comments

Sunday, July 9, 2017

Start of a panic....??

Sun: HOUSE PRICE PLUNGE Fresh fears of housing market collapse as new data suggests property prices are falling

NEW signs of the housing market slipping are expected this week when one of the best lead indicators of house price movement is released.

Posted by tom101 @ 04:49 PM 3 Comments

Friday, July 7, 2017

Halifax down 1% in June

Graun: UK house price fall takes annual growth rate to slowest in four years

Half a cheer as NW said up ~1% in the same period. Perhaps low sales volumes account for inconsistent results...

Posted by nickb @ 12:42 PM 0 Comments

Tightening comes in many forms

Pound Sterling Live: British pound up on us dollar

Carney takes the option of micro-managing the banks over decisions presumably they are running calculations on themselves to avoid raising rates. Tacitly stating that without his guidance the banks would still inevitably run themselves into serious defaults (which is probably true). From where are these counter cyclical reserves sourced? Could they be sourced from the addional liquidity that Carney has himself printed into existence? There is about 200 billion of unsecured debt held by uk households. So tapering, would be when QE went into reverse i.e. the printed money would head back to the central bank and the +x,-x cancel out. i continue in a comment..

Posted by stillthinking @ 01:09 AM 1 Comments

Wednesday, July 5, 2017

Whats the truth about the market?

Guardian: Shard apartments unsold 5 years on

its difficult to know what to believe is the real state of the market,but this has certainly been kept quiet..all starts in central london and spreads out historically.

Posted by taffee @ 10:21 AM 5 Comments

From the same rag that's been promising rising rents...

Torygraph: Finally, some good news for those not on the property ladder: it's getting cheaper to rent

Funny there's no mention in the article of the pending rent hikes due to tax changes. Maybe they're too embarrassed to mention the duff theory any more...

Posted by mombers @ 08:32 AM 2 Comments

Monday, July 3, 2017

Any minute now, rents will rise, promise!!

Torygraph: Attacks on landlords end up hurting tenants, says ex-Bank of England policymaker

Just goes to show the intellectual bankruptcy of neoclassical economics. Leases being signed now are subject to much higher taxation for the duration - why are landlords not passing this on as threatened, and are instead accepting lower rents than before? And why are rents lower in the US, where the average ad velorem property tax bill paid by the landlord is $6000 vs £0 in the UK?

Posted by mombers @ 11:36 AM 4 Comments

Sunday, July 2, 2017

40% of a lot is a lot of money

Uk recession

Torygraph: Hedge funds bet 3bn against retails biggest names

somebody on this site said in response to my view that housing will never be allowed to go down, that only when the last bear has capitulated is when things are going to turn. it would seem that with the collapse in the savings rate, the real squeeze on disposable real incomes, that the uk is possibly going to go into a recession and it would also seem that people are betting big that this is the case.

Posted by stillthinking @ 02:13 AM 2 Comments

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