Monday, November 28, 2016

UK property to fall 50%?

UK property to fall 50%? Talking houses with Henry Pryor

24 minute podcast interview with Henry Pryor discussing the housing market

Posted by frizzers @ 05:54 PM (8599 views)
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16 thoughts on “UK property to fall 50%?

  • Nice find frizzers! Interesting that Dominic Frisby writes for Moneyweek, who have suddenly done an about-turn and predicted a multi-year housing bull market.

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  • Erm isn’t Frizzers Dominic Frisby ? Guilty as charged Frizzers ?

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  • techie – ‘frizzers’ posts ONLY articles by DF, so they may well be related. Like ant and Greg Pytel.

    ‘Nice find frizzers’ – it may not have been a find after all.

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  • The plot thicken Icarus !

    Had a look at his podcast list and saw Jim rickards on there. D loaded a kindle sample from his latest… debating whether to add it to my list.

    Any view ?

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  • Henry Pryor makes a living negotiating expensive property purchases hence he is not the most impartial of housing market commentators. It makes a nice change to see a proper Bear posting but 50% seems too much.

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  • Have you listened to the whole thing QG…?

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  • Only problem with this is that UK bonds are gliding towards negative rates. Just one more EU fracture and capital will swamp Gilts into negative yields and this capital, seeking a home, may pay homeowners to take out loans.

    What we may well see is UK Gilts replacing German Bunds as the European safe haven.

    Many pundits fail to look at these trends and fail to look at global capital flows, looking myopically at national economics and how things happened before.

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  • …………as long as the £ doesn’t continue (£ = €1.36 in Jan, 1.17 now) to lose ground against the ‘fractured’ EU currency.

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  • UK government via FLS have far too much in the UK property market to stand by and watch it decline.

    Devaluation of GBP, together with inflation, seems to be the only game in town.

    We shall see I guess.

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  • @Techieman

    Yes, I listened to it. Pryor makes a decent stab at pointing out things that could go wrong with the market. I just find 50% hard to believe. I note there was no mention of the house price to unemployment inverse correlation that has been discussed here before.

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  • Hi QG… I was only asking because he isn’t definite regarding the probability of a 50% fall..even money I think he said. So expected 25% if you prefer.

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  • Libby…. 10 year gilt yields are now around 1.5% from a low of Arthur.

    The test is when the market retraces after the initial increase in yields (whenever that first move from the trough) only then if the yield breaks the prior low could there be any validity of your point.

    Paying people to take out mortgages ? Even if there was negative rates at the short end… I doubt we will see borrowers bring paid to take out a loan. A headline rate though isn’t the same as free money… banks love a fee to obscure the true cost.

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  • Yes, techieman, you are correct. After going sub 1%, they are testing the upper resistance that was the lower resistance.
    http://uk.investing.com/rates-bonds/uk-10-year-bond-yield

    I believe this will turn back down when Italy votes decisively against the EU this Sunday plus all the other populist votes due in short order.

    To break out to the upside, it would have to slam above 2% and then re-test that figure. Its simply not going to happen with EU crisis coming to a head.

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  • @12 indeed – if you look at -ve rates in Switzerland, they seem to have INCREASED mortgage rates as banks struggle to make money for nothing by collecting deposits and trousering risk free interest from the central bank.

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  • Mombers… posted an article on this very point a while back.
    Libby… we shall have to wait and see😉. Worldwide bond rates may have an impact esp. US…

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  • The market is unsustainable, Tulip bulbs spring to mind. A 50% drop is getting close to the sort of correction that I have been expecting.

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