August 2016 Archive

Tuesday, August 30, 2016

Slowing down. Still a waiting game

Telegraph: Homebuyers hold off after Brexit vote despite fall in interest rates

Economists said that the UK is showing signs of resilience in the face of the Brexit vote, but that any economic slowdown will have a knock-on impact in the housing market.

Posted by tom101 @ 04:06 PM 0 Comments

Sunday, August 28, 2016

Working/Saving is for losers says BoE Chief economist

Guardian: 'Property is better bet' than a pension says Bank of England economist

Haldane believes that property is a better bet for retirement planning than a pension. "It ought to be pension but it's almost certainly property," he said "As long as we continue not to build anything like as many houses in this country as we need to ... we will see what we've had for the better part of a generation, which is house prices relentlessly heading north." Ros Altmann, the former pensions minister, said his comments were "divorced from reality" and it was "irresponsible" to suggest people should rely on property rather than pensions.

Posted by quiet guy @ 10:35 PM 8 Comments

HaHaHa The Specials were right but not for the reason they envisaged

Metro: The evergrowing list of London nightclub closures is completely unacceptable

Oh dear me, the price of property, rising rents, neighbours who like quiet and the greed of speculators and property developers. 'Destroying cultural hot spots in favour of empty blocks of luxury flats is the worst thing that we can do to this city.' London gets what it deserves now it doesn't belong to Londoners anymore.

Posted by enuii @ 08:39 PM 1 Comments

Will the huge surge to the right in Europe inpact house prices

Daily express: Favourite to be next Dutch PM vows to BAN the Koran and CLOSE all mosques

Europe is a tinder box ready to explode. Southern Mediterranean countries with 50% youth unemployment are full of angry young men. it has now spread to the North. The FAVOURITE for the Dutch elections has launched a manifesto where he will ban mosques, send immigrants home and not allow Jews or Muslims, none pork options in schools. Marine le Penn is becoming mainstream in France. In Germany the far right have been accelerating faster than any time in the last 70 years. Both Hungary and Poland elected right wing governments and are refusing refugees. in Austria after election fraud nulled the last election, it is almost sure that the far right wing candidate will get in. Europe is likely to implode before we finally leave the EU in two years. What will happen to our ponzi housing market?

Posted by britishblue @ 10:51 AM 1 Comments

Friday, August 26, 2016

"sales have slowed and prices fallen since the vote"

Guardian: Is Britain on the verge of a Brexit-fuelled house price crash? Only the data will tell

This week, exactly two months after the vote for Brexit, I spent an hour on the property site Zoopla looking at the latest housing sale data available. Anyone can do this at the click of a button. Unlike the rise in stamp duty in April, which was well anticipated, the vote to leave the EU was not. And all markets react most strongly to the unanticipated.

Posted by jack c @ 09:49 AM 2 Comments

Thursday, August 25, 2016

Its all on sentiment now

Guardian: S Britain on the verge of a Brexit-fuelled house price crash? Only the data will tell

"Transactions fall when sellers refuse to drop the price they will accept because they want to believe that the economic effect of Brexit has been overplayed. They also fall when first-time buyers and landlords decide to wait to see if these small falls are a sign of more to come. It is a battle of collective wills: a standoff." One thing i would add is the current uncertainty in the workplace. Employers certainly havent missed the opportunity to beat their staff with the Brexit stick!

Posted by tom101 @ 03:35 PM 4 Comments

Wednesday, August 24, 2016


Telegraph: Companies must sort their pension black holes before paying out senseless dividends

The suggestion is that as (company) pension funds are underfunded, then instead of paying dividends the money should go to make up any shortfall in the fund. Ignoring any other side effects from stopping dividends, you would have to ask yourself how many independent pension funds are based on receiving dividends... This is not directly connected to housing but considering the whole point of BoE policy since 2008 has been to ward off deflation through any means possible, money is disappearing anyway like whack-a-mole. Which makes me wonder if even nirp and the other extreme measures are doing no more than -delaying- deflation because in the end these missing pension funds are -not- going to be spent.

Posted by stillthinking @ 12:26 AM 0 Comments

Saturday, August 20, 2016

How low can they go?

Daily Fail: RBS becomes the first bank to set negative interest rates: It's charging large firms to hold cash - so could families be next?

Will homeowners be paid to take out mortgages? It could be profitable for banks to lend out at, say, -0.01 if money they do not lend out that they have to park in the central bank is charged -0.4% interest rates. Remember, 0% is an arbitrary number because banking profit is about arbitration and opportunity cost. They receive cash at whatever cost the market delivers and add a mark-up, pocketing the difference.

Posted by libertas @ 04:29 PM 13 Comments

Equivalent to Hinkley Point C every two years

BBC News: Private landlords double housing benefit haul to £9.3bn

Private landlords in the UK received twice as much in housing benefit last year - £9.3bn - as they did a decade ago, a report says. The National Housing Federation (NHF) study said the increase was due to a big rise in the number of private tenants claiming housing benefit. The NHF said this particular group of people had grown by 42% since 2008. In 2006, some £4.6bn in housing benefit was paid to private landlords, a figure which had more than doubled by 2015. NHF chief executive David Orr said: "It is madness to spend £9bn of taxpayers' money lining the pockets of private landlords rather than investing in affordable homes."

Posted by quiet guy @ 08:42 AM 3 Comments

Friday, August 19, 2016

Unhealthy debt-to-property ratio for UK plc.

Guardian: ONS data shows UK wealth wedded to property

Data reveals UK net worth of £8.8tn is four times that of 1995 after massive rise in property wealth, but stellar rise masks public deficit and decline in savings

Posted by dohousescrashinthewoods @ 09:39 AM 4 Comments

Tuesday, August 16, 2016

House Price Crash Cancelled

BBC News: House price inflation accelerates to 8.7% in June

The annual rate of UK house price inflation accelerated to 8.7pct to June, according to official figures. According to the new House Price Index, the rise brought the cost of an average home to £213,927. The new "experimental" index comprises figures collated by the Office for National Statistics from data supplied by Land Registry, Registers of Scotland, Land and Property Services, Northern Ireland and the Valuation Office Agency. The figures do not fully reflect any impact of the result of the vote to leave the EU, which was declared on 24 June.

Posted by little professor @ 10:43 AM 13 Comments

Monday, August 15, 2016

Tax land not labour

Thursday, August 11, 2016

General uncertainty - Waiting for signs in the stars

Telegraph: Number of homes on the market at record low as Brexit uncertainty hits house prices

The level of market activity, such as the amount of new buyer inquiries and the number of agreed sales, continued to fall, according to the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics).

Posted by tom101 @ 08:33 PM 4 Comments

Wednesday, August 10, 2016

1/3 of sellers reducing asking prices.... and the rest

Daily Express: One in three home sellers has cut asking price, figures show

"Among the homes which have been reduced in price across the country generally, the average discount on offer is £25,257." Not to mention properties being re-listed, so the records of reductions cannot be seen.

Posted by tom101 @ 02:28 PM 7 Comments

Average London house price down by £30,000 in July, says Haart

The Guardian: Average London house price down by £30,000 in July, says Haart

In London, the average property price fell from £558,760 to £527,349, the equivalent of about a £1,000 drop every day last month.

Posted by becky @ 01:56 PM 3 Comments

Libby prediction about to come true. Low rates to lead to massive tax cuts

Independent: Bank of England's Brexit plan to prop up the economy with QE fails on second day

"Darren Bustin, head of derivatives at Royal London Asset Management, said that the government may need to look at fiscal policies such as cutting VAT to prop up the economy if monetary stimulus fails." As I have said ad-infinitum, low interest rates will fail to stimulate the economy, forcing governments into tax cuts that will snowball. A lot of the deflation we have right now is due to tax rates rising beyond their sustainable level.

Posted by libertas @ 11:21 AM 1 Comments

Tuesday, August 9, 2016

Home buyers using Brexit to demand hefty price discounts

Daily Express: Shameless house hunters using BREXIT as excuse to demand huge price drops

Why wouldn't you? It's an unprecedented event and no one knows what is going to happen.

Posted by tom101 @ 10:07 PM 5 Comments

3 million 'working' families one paycheck away from losing their homes...

Independent: Three million working families are 'one pay cheque away from losing their home'

Cash-strapped working families in England are so "stretched to breaking point" that one in three could not afford to pay their rent or mortgage for more than a month if they lost their job, according to new figures.

Posted by tom101 @ 04:15 PM 0 Comments

Property market looking shaky after Brexit

Counterpunch: Little Britain, after Brexit : UK plunges into the deep end of the international market

Post-Brexit Britain prosperous and independent, or isolated and exposed? The writer argues the latter, with potentially dire consequences for the UK property market

Posted by icarus @ 11:40 AM 1 Comments

Monday, August 8, 2016

The government has gambled hundreds of millions on house price rises – it's time to stop the meddlin

The government has gambled hundreds of millions on house price rises it's time to stop the meddling: This is Money

Taxpayers stand to lose hundreds of millions of pounds if house prices fall, thanks to a gamble the government has been making with our cash for the past three years.

Posted by becky @ 01:03 PM 1 Comments

Thursday, August 4, 2016

Implications of the rate cut for Nationwide customers

Nationwide: Bank of England base rate announcement

Customers on Tracker mortgages get the full 0.25% decrease, Standard Variable Rate reduces from 3.99% to 3.74% and Base Mortgage Rate customers see a cut from 2.50% to 2.25%. Suckers defrauded by Carney's prior rate rise carnival get Jack diddly squat. For those seeking new mortgages or equity release, the £500 or so savings per year on, say, a £200k mortgage should let you leverage an extra £2500k in borrowing power. To be sucked up into house prices very fast.

Posted by libertas @ 10:34 PM 22 Comments

Yes but that can't happen here.....

Wednesday, August 3, 2016

Enhanced affordability will increase prices

Independent: What will an interest rate cut mean for you?

Forget all the other issues, when rates fall, as I've said for a long time is just as likely as the now forgotten rise, banks will start to factor that in, increasing the amount that borrowers can afford when borrowing to buy a house or carry out mortgage equity release. This money will be used to bid up house prices. If house prices rise faster than construction costs, more homes will be built, but with a migration surge front-running border controls, they simply cannot build enough. Prices are about to go through the roof. Wider issue is, if rates fall, is this, following years of plateaux, the beginning of a downward trend towards negative? With oil prices back below the $40 handle this week deflation may be a wider trend due to technology & movement of labour via migration & IT.

Posted by libertas @ 05:14 PM 24 Comments

Tuesday, August 2, 2016

Staggering drop in home ownership in last decade

Daily Telegraph: City where Home Ownership has dropped the most

Some very interesting figures showing the decline in Home Ownership which is down from an average of the low 70% in its peak to the low 60% today. This is a massive social change and will only increase as older people die off or pay for nursing care. In Central London home ownership is down to 34%. At some point in the next 20 years the difference between the haves (got on the housing ladder in the late 90's/ early 2000s) and the have nots ( cant afford a house and all the money is taken in rent) is going to feed into main stream politics and will effect who gets elected. It would also be interesting to see the standard of home ownership for people getting on the ladder. A young doctor in London 20 years ago could afford a nice two to three bedroom house. Now a starter hovel.

Posted by britishblue @ 08:42 AM 0 Comments

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