July 2016 Archive

Saturday, July 30, 2016

Keeping the tenants warm

Telegraph: 'Green tax' to hit landlords with £5,000 bill on buy-to-let homes

“Landlords have been harshly treated. This is an extra stealth tax on top of all the other measures that threaten the finances of the sector.”

Posted by tom101 @ 05:31 PM 5 Comments

Endless emeregency

Guardian: Interest rate cut: good news for mortgages, bad news for savers

"A rate cut is a certainty, according to most experts." The unemployment rate has dropped to an 11 year low and our currency has lost significant purchasing power against the dollar. The BoE monetary policy committee is allegedly preparing to lower interest rates down from the seven year 'emergency' rate of 0.5%. I'm wondering what it will take to get interest rates rising now.

Posted by quiet guy @ 10:06 AM 4 Comments

Wednesday, July 27, 2016

The surge is well under way.

Independent: Home Affairs Committee: "UK must prepare for immigration surge after Brexit"

Insulting your intelligence they claim the surge is hypothetical, it is happening right now and possibly explains why French border control has been taken unawares. I would not be surprised if net migration does no hit a million people this year, as folk front-run border controls. Housing shortages could be so acute that houses per surveyor go below double digits whilst house prices could just mushroom beyond all belief.

Posted by libertas @ 12:50 PM 6 Comments

Tuesday, July 26, 2016

Estate agent fails to predict price rise

Savills: Brexit impact on mainstream market

Apparently "caution" is as bad as it'll get. Yawn. Let me know when we get to outright feast that price drops will never end.

Posted by sneaker @ 08:57 PM 0 Comments

5-10% ... to start?

Financial Times: London property prices to fall 5-10% – Peel Hunt

"The report predicts that businesses will remain wary of committing to property until the outcome of negotiations with the EU are clearer, with the risk of losing financial passporting rights a particular risk for City office space." I fully expect nine-figure apartments to drop by much more than 5-10%. Could be 90%. But since they were bought with laundered offshore cash and not onshore mortages, perhaps this "decapitation" move will have limited spill-over.

Posted by sneaker @ 02:00 PM 0 Comments

Monday, July 25, 2016

A good gamble

Telegraph: Huge spike in Chinese property investors' interest in the UK post-Brexit

“Now, with politics stabilizing and a competent new government in place, the UK looks like the same old safe haven as ever – but cheaper.”

Posted by tom101 @ 04:08 PM 1 Comments

Sunday, July 24, 2016

They are not Tourists, morons, they are MIGRANTS

Daily Mail: Brexit BONANZA: Tourists are pouring into Britain — and it's the time for homeowners to cash in by r

There is literally a race right now to flood into Britain and front-run border controls. It is being reported as a tourist rush, but how many will go home? Many will stay until they get indefinite leave to remain. This is a total disaster. We should repeal the European Communities Act IMMEDIATELY. Then replace freedom of movement with a freedom to work. Visa free access, but no right to reside unless you have a job and, no benefits or NHS until a Citizen and you have to have private healthcare between times. Simple, and if the EU threaten us with tariffs, we would make money from them because they export way more to us than we do to them!! House prices in Britain are literally going to go to the moon because of this.

Posted by libertas @ 11:34 PM 3 Comments

Thursday, July 21, 2016

Rachmanism part 2

Sky News: UK Housing Crisis Could Mark Return Of Slums

The shrinking stock of social housing is pushing more vulnerable people into an increasingly over-priced private rental market.Slums may be re-emerging in the UK, with growing concern about the number of private renters living in hazardous or squalid conditions.A dramatic increase in the number of renters and poor regulation in the private sector, are being exploited by rogue landlords, according to local authorities and housing campaigners.

Posted by jack c @ 09:30 AM 5 Comments

Wednesday, July 20, 2016

THERE IS NO BUBBLE - House prices have FALLEN in most parts of the UK since 2005

LoveBTL: Where UK house prices have risen and fallen in real terms since 2005

Using BoE inflation data a LoveBTL writer claims that, if you exclude London, the East and the South East, then house prices have actually fallen (in real terms) since 2005.

Posted by landofconfusion @ 02:46 PM 4 Comments

Monday, July 18, 2016

What is luxury in London?

Telegraph: Prices of luxury London homes 'could fall as much as 50pc'

I'm struggling with the term "Luxury" in the context of London flats and housing. £2m gets you what exactly in London? "A simplistic ‘back of the envelope’ computation shows there were 3,140 real estate transactions registered above £2m in London in 2015 (and 920 in 2016 leading up to Brexit)." So that would be a normal house in a less than favourable area or a one bedroom in a nice area?

Posted by tom101 @ 02:28 PM 1 Comments

Brexit impact seeping through

Guardian: UK property asking prices drop 0.9% since June

The average asking price of homes coming on to the market in England and Wales has fallen since mid June, according to property website Rightmove, with the Brexit vote exaggerating the usual summer slowdown.

Posted by tom101 @ 09:39 AM 0 Comments

Saturday, July 16, 2016

Sorry, but this brazen confidence is bullish, long term

The Guardian: 'A tortured heap of towers': the London skyline of tomorrow

RE-POSTED: Even this article is out of date, with more skyscrapers granted since. If the City can suck in enough companies to fill these towers, they will all need places to live. Look on the London Overground routes from Liverpool Street and along the Crossrail route to see where workers will live. Remember, BOE will cut interest rates if these towers, being constructed a few mins walk from Threadneedle St, halt work.

Posted by libertas @ 08:33 AM 2 Comments

Thursday, July 14, 2016

Help for housing on it's way (This is for libby)

BBC News: Interest rates could be cut to new low

The Bank of England could make the first cut to UK interest rates in more than seven years on Thursday. Mark Carney, the Bank governor, has indicated that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) would vote to cut rates in July or August. The probable reduction from 0.5% to 0.25% is intended to boost the UK economy in the wake of the Brexit vote.

Posted by hpwatcher @ 07:36 AM 10 Comments

Don't blame on the sunshine , moonlight, good times., blame it on.....

RICS: Brexit uncertainty hits residential activity

"Buyer enquiries fall for third consecutive month - lowest reading since mid-2008Agreed sales fall sharply with further drop expected in the short term12 month price expectations turn negative in London and East – but longer term forecasts remain positive" I commented before.. purple bricks ... easy estate agencies etc. The inverse indicator as companies come to market expecting the continuation of a prior trend.

Posted by techieman @ 05:38 AM 7 Comments

Wednesday, July 13, 2016

Barratt are planning for Housing Correction

Reuters: UK's Barratt could slow pace of housebuilding after Brexit vote

Barratt Chief Executive David Thomas said the market was now more likely to slow. "We would look at future land commitments, our current commitments, we would also look at our build programmes and the extent to which we should slow down our build programmes," he told Reuters. "The principle focus of our reassessment will be about where we have approved land but we have not yet submitted for planning or alternatively where land is coming to the market that we could bid on and we are looking at whether we will or we won't," he said.

Posted by wdbeast @ 09:09 AM 1 Comments

Familiar story

Guardian: Only developers, estate agents and homeowners will cash in on Crossrail

To be launched in 2018, Crossrail is now not only an obsession for planners, engineers and architects, but is also being sold as a potential catalyst for much-needed housing investment and regeneration. Will the capital's biggest infrastructure project, funded mainly by the public purse, help address its housing problems? The evidence suggests that, despite the praise, it may make them worse. London, according to a recent study by PricewaterhouseCoopers, will be a majority-renting city (60%) by 2025. This majority is paying for Crossrail (recently unveiled as the Elizabeth Line) through their taxes and, soon, their fares. They will be rewarded with higher rents and house prices.

Posted by quiet guy @ 08:14 AM 3 Comments

Terms of Endearment?

Cnbc: EU backs sanctions on Portugal and Spain for breaking EU deficit rules.

Meanwhile in the Eurozone Spain and Portugal may have sanctions applied to ensure they play nicely. 3% of GDP or else. Ofc France and Italy have no need to bother. Everybody is equal in Europe.. just some are more equal than others.

Posted by techieman @ 02:02 AM 3 Comments

Sunday, July 10, 2016

Repeat prescription

Telegraph: Bank of England poised to slash interest rates to shore up economy

"The Bank of England is poised to slash interest rates to close to zero this week as fears mount over a Brexit-induced recession. Economists believe the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will cut rates to a new low of just 0.25pc on Thursday, while markets have priced in a 75pc chance of more easing." It's a funny old world. Could have sworn Carney was muttering about rate rises if we voted for Brexit.

Posted by quiet guy @ 03:52 AM 17 Comments

Thursday, July 7, 2016

Brexit not fully factored in, but will a weak pound attract more buyers?

This is money - mail: Property hits levels of unaffordability not seen since before the financial crisis as house prices rise by almost 3k in June

UK house prices continued to rise in June, adding almost 3,000 GBP in a month, stretching affordability to levels not seen since the run-up to the financial crisis in 2007, a new survey suggests. Halifax said it was too early to say how the referendum that sanctioned the UK's decision to leave the EU will impact the housing market, but added there were signs the pace of growth is easing. The price of the average home in the UK rose by 1.3 per cent between May and June, or by 2,708 GBP to hit 216,823 GBP, up from 0.6 per cent the previous month, according to the latest index by the mortgage lender.

Posted by hpwatcher @ 04:21 PM 7 Comments

Wednesday, July 6, 2016

To make the assumption that property is suddenly worth 5% less because of BREXIT is sheer madness.

Armstrong Economics: Standard Life Suspends Their Property Fund

The currency has dropped about 13% so far. Add the 5% write-off because they ASSUMED they lost money and you are at nearly a 30% drop. Property in London is declining, not because of BREXIT, but because of the crazy changes in laws and hikes in taxation. However, to make the assumption that property is suddenly worth 5% less because of BREXIT is sheer madness.

Posted by libertas @ 07:26 AM 9 Comments

Tuesday, July 5, 2016

Are UK House Owners About To Be Punished For Voting Brexit

BBC News: Consumers warned on high debt levels as bank regulations eased

The change in rhetoric coming from the B of E almost makes it sound as if they are going to let us go into recession and then blame it on the Brexit vote!

Posted by wdbeast @ 10:10 AM 9 Comments

Sunday, July 3, 2016

Hang on - what's happened to the safe-haven asset of choice?

Boing Boing: London luxury property prices plummet after Brexit vote

One estate agent sounds near-suicidal: "There’s no end to how far prices could fall". Unnamed "foreigners" have stopped bidding on London property because they're afraid of mounting xenophobia and racism. London has the highest ratio of bedrooms to residents in the city's 2,000+ year history, and half the bedrooms in the southeast are empty on any given night. The "demand" for London property isn't driven by the density of people seeking to live there, it's driven by the hordes who want to treat shelter as a tradeable asset class. Oh and don't forget “London is now globally recognised as such a desirable city that its property is treated effectively as another asset class. A safe investment in a turbulent world” -- Boris Johnson, October 2012

Posted by sneaker @ 03:47 PM 3 Comments

Friday, July 1, 2016

Post Brexit strategies

Telegraph: Post-Brexit property planning: should you buy, sell or stick?

Short term = price falls the ''experts'' predict

Posted by tom101 @ 02:34 PM 6 Comments

Summer tipped for rate cut by Governor as he pledges he won't "walk away" from the job

Independent: Brexit: Bank of England Governor signals interest rate cut

He may end up getting kicked out. So, my long predicted rate cut is about to come to pass. Expectations are that it will be a 25bp cut to 0.25%. However, 2yr Gilts are being bid up bigly, to quote the next President of the USA, with rates collapsing on those to 0.105% I am expecting these to fall into negative territory forcing the BOE, which reacts to and competes with the market and is not in control, to cut to 0%, followed by negative rates to come as Britain becomes a safe haven whilst the EU becomes the focus of short positions and disintegration concerns. House prices are about to soar as this combines with FOREX house price discounts to foreigners who will flood in to front run border controls.

Posted by libertas @ 03:11 AM 10 Comments

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