Wednesday, July 27, 2016

The surge is well under way.

Home Affairs Committee: "UK must prepare for immigration surge after Brexit"

Insulting your intelligence they claim the surge is hypothetical, it is happening right now and possibly explains why French border control has been taken unawares. I would not be surprised if net migration does no hit a million people this year, as folk front-run border controls. Housing shortages could be so acute that houses per surveyor go below double digits whilst house prices could just mushroom beyond all belief.

Posted by libertas @ 12:50 PM (6990 views)
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6 thoughts on “The surge is well under way.

  • You’d prefer to see anything apart from the value of your house fall isn’t it?

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  • crash bandicoot says:

    I’m lost reading this. As far as I can see, the immigration spike will come from EU citizens who are already living in the UK. Presumably post Brexit they will be counted permanent immigrants rather than transient EU workers but this is just an accounting exercise. I don’t see how this will pressurise housing as they are living here anyway.

    The other group mentioned are visa applicants and asylum seekers. Since their rights to be in the UK are unchanged by Brexit I can’t understand how it can affect their numbers. If we were doing a bad job already I can see that more funding would be needed to process applications, but I can’t see why even more people from this group would want to come to the UK before we bring an end to open EU migration.

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  • Before the referendum, Libertas predicted that Brexit would lead to a surge in immigration. I think his reasoning was that Brexit would lead to an economic boom so great that tons more illegals would come over. He may have also thought that the points-based system would end up letting in more migrants than the current freedom-of-movement system, which seems odd, because surely the whole point of a points-based system is that you can raise the points threshold higher to let in less people.

    He may have also said, as seems possible, that the confusion post-Brexit would see many more migrants from other EU countries bringing forward plans to move here, in the hopes of being able to stay once negotiations are over.

    It does not sound as if this article is even saying the last of these is what’s going on. I think crash Bandicoot is reading it correctly. It’s just a misleading headline that Libby has jumped on because he thinks it confirms his theory.

    I would have thought that all the rise in xenophobic sentiment, uncertainty, declining currency and talk of depressed wages would be enough to put most of the Western Europeans off coming, and in fact encourage a lot of them to go home (not to mention a few Americans, Australians and others besides…). I would have thought that a lot of Eastern Europeans who are already here will stick it out and get some sort of leave to remain, but that those who were planning on coming here are now rethinking their plans, in part because construction is expected to falter.

    I don’t see any surge, just a bunch of tourists, as someone else said on another thread.

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  • Reticent, Brexit will cause a boom, but the immigration rush will be the front-running of migration controls primarily. As our economy takes off with global deals, that will cause a further wave of immigration, even with a points system, unless we have quotas, but I can’t see quotas flying.

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  • “Just a bunch of tourists” but of course there IS NO WAY of differentiating, so you cannot be correct because it will be a mix of both, so you are clearly only saying something that backs your political position, not something that can be verified in fact until much later on, by which time it will be too late because we cannot afford mass deportations.

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  • @4 It would be nice if you would pepper your posts with the occasional clause to remind everyone else (not to mention yourself) that these things you say are really just your own opinions and predictions, e.g. “I think”, “I expect” etc.

    Brexit has caused uncertainty. Uncertainty tends not to breed economic growth or invite loads of economic migrants.

    Brexit COULD prove to increase economic growth relative to remaining in the EU in the very longterm if it achieves a rebalancing away from finance towards industry, or allows us to better export professional services to non-EU markets, or under various other scenarios that rely on the government facilitating those pivots in ways they have lately proven themselves to being incapable of doing.

    @5 You’re right. I have no way of knowing for sure if the unusually heavy glut of foreigners for this time of year is down to increased tourism in the wake of a cheap pound and the potential impending reintroduction of tourist Visas for EU holidaymakers. It is also possible that the baby boomer couples and 40-somethings traipsing around London with their kids, their smartphone map apps out, carrying backpacks and fannypacks, asking me where the M&M store and LY-CESS-TER square are, could actually be economic migrants who’ve come here for a better life, but are spending the first few weekdays getting in some sightseeing before starting work.

    But my instincts (not to mention the law of demand and the law of supply implying that a falling pound will have pushed up demand for tourism and down supply of foreign labour coming to the UK), tell me otherwise…

    As a side note, it’s interesting that when I make a claim based on my own anecdotal experience that I “cannot be correct”, but presumably, you must be, not just in that instance, but every time you try to pass off spurious, baseless, counter-intuitive claims as fact?

    Here’s a thought: if you’re right and Brexit causes a boom, do you not think those thinking of frontrunning migration controls will wait to see what happens with sterling before rushing over here, given that the vast majority of predictions are that Brexit will dampen economic growth and wages in the short to medium term? Especially since they can do so safe in the knowledge that they almost certainly will have up to 2 years to arrange a move here once article 50 is triggered? Or do you think the people of Western Europe share your optimistic outlook for the UK economy? If so, why? Are they here, reading your posts, mistaking your opinions for facts?

    I posit, although I admit I have as little evidence as you, that any potential surge would not have begun yet in any meaningful way, even if there is to be one.

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