Friday, June 24, 2016

Could this trigger the big one ?

Pound falls heavily as EU vote results come in

This is making 2008 seem like a minor hiccup. I remember 1992 when interest rates hit 14%. Of course Libertas might e right and next year your house might be worth £1000000000 or was that Zimbabwe dollars ? Is this the final punishment of the boomers against generation rent ? A lot of the boomers won't be happy when they see the price of their next BMW. Wait for the cries of "BoJo didn't tell us this would happen"

Posted by tenyearstogetmymoneyback @ 03:53 AM (9086 views)
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18 thoughts on “Could this trigger the big one ?

  • dohousescrashinthewoods says:

    Wow. I mean, wow. I think emigration, not immigration, is about to become the problem.

    What oil sheikh is going to buy up Knightsbridge now?

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  • britishblue says:

    Of all the black swans that have been circling, the experts didn’t see this one coming. It is going to be very hard to pump up the market now as had been planned by all the vested interest.

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  • Expect a couple million to flood into Britain as the draw bridge is pulled, and the army to be dispatched to seal the border.

    If you do not have a home now, forget it.

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  • Things will settle

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  • Libertas
    Which idiot would want to enter the UK now? Cost of living is about to increase substantially e.g. 5-10% for imported fruit (mostly from EU) and veg on the back of falling pound already. The silver lining is that interest rates may have to rise to protect sterling, which means mortgage payments more expensive, which means lower house prices.
    N

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  • Libertas
    Which idiot would want to enter the UK now? Cost of living is about to increase substantially e.g. 5-10% for imported fruit (mostly from EU) and veg on the back of falling pound already. The silver lining is that interest rates may have to rise to protect sterling, which means mortgage payments more expensive, which means lower house prices.
    N

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  • Evidence is that swap rates on GILTS are plummeting. Looking like negative rates pretty soon. Along with the news that 500k moved to the UK last year, net, this will soar over the next two years. Zero hedge is also correct that the new BOE liquidity will trigger a bull market in the stock market, property and, as it is, in Gilts.

    What idiot would not want to move to the island that created more jobs than the rest of the EU combined? Wages will begin to soar as firms scrabble for staff and the young, dispossessed from southern Europe will want a piece of it whilst they can. We will very quickly leap towards the GDP per capita of Switzerland, which is about five times greater than ours.

    House prices in London are about to go ballistic.

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  • Libby – Your read on the market is somewhat at odds with the stock market’s view. Persimmon, Taylor Wimpey and Coutrywide are all 23% down and London’s beloved estate agent Foxtons are 20% down. Strange that they should all disagree with you so much!

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  • Why ‘forget it’ (@3) if London house prices are going ballistic (@7)? Did you mean ‘if you do not have a home now, move to Switzerland’ given that Swiss GDP (@7) is far. far higher than any of us realised?

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  • Make that ‘Swiss GDP per capita is far…..’

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  • It will take over 2 years to de-couple from the EU, whenever they decide to trigger article 50.

    Come Monday, the knuckle draggers who voted OUT will be back on the football the the rest of us will be worrying
    about which swivel eyed loon who will lead the nasty party.

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  • doomwatch – True, many of the ‘leave’ voters are Little Englanders. But others (admittedly a small minority) voted ‘leave’ because they see through the neoliberal, banker/corporatist cliques running the EU. Two words sum up the EU economic disaster – ‘Greece’ and ‘austerity’. One could add ‘fascism’, the very thing the EU was supposed to counter, resulting from unemployment and low wages.

    As for foreign relations the 70 years of ‘peace’ after WWII is the result not of post-war European institutions but of shifting power dynamics. Post WWII the great powers of Europe had been so reduced in strength that they could no longer aspire to be global hegemons in a world the US, as the last man standing, had come to dominate. To retain a small measure of influence in this unipolar world the European powers agreed to be integrated into a military and economic alliance headed by the US with a view to eliminating Russia as a halter to US expansion (If the EU was set up as a counter to US military and economic power, why is the US so pro-EU?). And of course while the Europeans were co-operating among themselves they were unleashing bloody wars to retain their colonial possessions in Africa and Asia and to further US aims in the Middle East and Ukraine.

    The only problem is that the UK doesn’t have the party that will de-couple from neoliberalism and from an economy based on finance, debt and property.

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  • Libertas
    Re comment 11 – have you thought about leading the Conservatives?
    N

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  • Spot on Icarus

    at the heart of Europe lies the deep evil and that evil is based around five issues:

    A taxation system based on taxing the productive economy through higher taxes on incomes and high taxes on trade through a value-added tax. This tax system, with its complications, is how the poor are made poorer. This tax system allows those with land and ownership of natural resources to exploit them inefficiently. Landowners and rentiers of all kinds can sit and milk the productive hard-working people of Europe and the profits to be gained from destroying our natural environment.

    A monetary system that allows private banks to create money as debt which in turn leads to the creation of money to fund property speculation and inefficient use of natural resources

    Land subsidies, mostly in the form of agricultural subsidies which are directly responsible for the destruction of vast swathes of our wild land. Making landowners push into production the most marginal of land. This policy has seen the destruction of wildlife across Europe as we have driven our wild areas to extinction. Britain has been uniquely bad in this respect compared to our continental cousins and Brexit does not promise a reprieve.

    Stupid laws, these are often not the laws that are ridiculed in our tabloid press, not the bendy bananas! but the laws that really do subvert society and make all of our lives worse. Examples of these silly laws that introduce things like palm oil as a biofuel where we destroy the last equatorial forests and the homes of orang-utans in a perverted environmental law aimed at reducing fossil fuel use, when it does nothing of the sort. Legislation on carbon trading is again a grotesque perversion in using a so-called environmental law to create a system that will allow the European corporate elites to suck the wealth out of the poor when achieving nothing to combat global warming and reducing harmful polluting emissions.

    Immigration and the free movement of people is a noble gesture but in the UK without adequate housing the perversity of immigration forces the wages of the poorest people down and their living costs up through high rents and house prices. The rich & parasitic benefit and the poor suffer but none in our timid labour party will admit that and put in place the changes needed that will allow us to receive the benefits of immigration. I believe it is a noble goal to integrate the people of this world, but if we are to achieve it we need an economic system that allows the increased economic activity of our multicultural world not to rob the poorest and the hardest working and that can only be achieved by taking away the benefits to the elites through higher rents for land and other forms of monopoly and having a taxation system that does not penalise workers but gives them back the benefits of sharing our land with people from the rest of Europe and the world. This can only be achieved through a tax shift to land value taxes, providing council housing to all in need and taxing away other monopolies and redistribute such taxes equally to all, so everyone can share and enjoy the benefits of increased economic activity

    What have we voted against? A Europe whose rules and regulations enforce an economic system that will systematically rob the poor and our environment? But has thrown us some scraps of legislation that protect the poorest and environment better than what our so-called parliament has ever been able to give us.

    Independence could give us the chance to reclaim our Government and deliver economic and environmental justice to bring in land value taxes and monopoly taxes and to get rid of the harmful taxes that are levied upon us and thus stimulate a revolution for the poor .and hard working.

    But independence carries the danger that the dangerous group of proto-fascist brexit campaigners are more likely to try an enact legislation that will damage our economy, working people’s income and our environment and lead us on a path to poverty.

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  • I don’t see a boom of jobs and higher wages coming at all, more like less jobs and higher wages for a small minority of jobs.

    Now that Cameron is going there is a small chance that something might be done to benefit the people rather than his own moral values and image.

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  • No, Sterling collapsed because Project Fear caused traders to put their short positions artificially low. Thus, when the fall came, there were no stop positions at sensible prices to catch the falling knife, but when it found those positions it recovered nicely, along with the stock market.

    The fact that circuit breakers were not triggered and trading was not halted proves that this was not a serious event.

    No doubt the Bank of England also acted as a buyer at these levels.

    There could be continued weakness, but this is a necessary thing to off-set any potential impact from trade barriers and to suck in the demand for manufacturing that we will require. Expect a ramping up of manufacturing and, Britain can now purchase British steel for HS2 and Crossrail 2, so expect primary industries to boom, and our oil exports suddenly have a significant edge, so expect more north sea investment.

    Also, I would be buying fishing stocks in Britain. We will regain our fishing rights given that this was such an important promise made by the Brexit campaign. Expect a significant number of foreign fishing fleets to suddenly domicile in Britain to base themselves in British ports meaning that they will pay British taxes and trade fish in British markets such as Billingsgate, I would be investing in them right now.

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  • britishblue says:

    I suspect Germany will have it harder than the UK:

    a. A population up in arms that 1.5 million people will seek asylum this year
    b. The UK is their third largest export market in the world ant twats like Jean Claude Junker who led a country less than 1% the size of the UK wants to trash the relationship with Britain
    c. Britain’s contribution of 10% to the overal EU budget will have to be made up by guess who.
    d. there is every chance that a protest party will win the German electtions next year.

    the shrewd long term investors may well see the EU has a higher risk than the UK in the medium and longer term. Yes it will seem like the UK will have a double hip operation in the immediate future, but the rest of the EU will be in far more trouble when this all starts to crumble

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  • letthemfall says:

    It’s true there are plenty of neoliberals in Europe, but it strikes me the UK and US have the lead there. Many Outers are unhappy with that – aren’t most of us? – but they won’t see any improvement out of the EU. Quite the opposite is my fear.

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