Tuesday, June 14, 2016

Brexit is now the most bullish thing conceivable, something we first hinted a month ago…

Here They Come: ECB Pledges To Bailout Markets In Case Of Brexit

According to a Reuters report, the European Central Bank would publicly pledge to backstop financial markets in tandem with the Bank of England should Britain vote to leave the European Union. Rate cuts and QE will be the most bullish thing ever. Markets will soar, house prices could go ballistic. The only risk is that governments will over-reach in their abject fear and pump too much money into the system thus, the greatest risk is not BREXIT but government knee jerk reaction to it. However, with deflation on the horizon, it may be the prod needed to bring us back to 2% inflation targets. For Britain, with reduced migration eventually, stagnant wages could reverse gear and start heading into the stratosphere as we play catch up with the wages of other non-EU countries like Norway & Swiss

Posted by libertas @ 10:30 PM (7638 views)
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11 thoughts on “Brexit is now the most bullish thing conceivable, something we first hinted a month ago…

  • Brexit is the new Y2K.

    No matter the result of the vote it will be an immediate anticlimax.

    It’s the most discussed and prepared-for event in recent history.

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  • But Libby, you can’t possibly be out, as your rabbit hutch will be worth less?

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  • hpwatcher. First, I do not own a hutch but a substantial three bedroom home that we are about to extend to be a substantial five bedroom house.

    Secondly, I am totally done already with everybody being so damned selfish and “its all about cash”. No, its about principles of democracy, sovereignty and, a stand against dictatorship and technocratic rule. About self governance and local control. Principles that transcend whether you make or lose a buck out of the vote.

    But, the fact remains that the most democratic and the most free nations tend to be the most prosperous, so I struggle to comprehend how surrendering control of our country to unelected bureaucrat / technocrats could possibly result in any wealth for our children.

    Furthermore, average wages and GDP per head are substantially higher for non EU countries like Norway and Switzerland. Greenland, also outside the EU and miles from any easy market access manages a similar GDP per capita as the UK. So it is GDP per capita, not Gross GDP that matters.

    GDP per Capita:
    Norway $68,430
    Switzerland $58,551
    Iceland $46,097
    United Kingdom $41,159

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  • Sovereignty? Democracy? Principles?

    Or freedom to do the bidding of the American empire and Wall Street (an original aim was for the EU to form a bulwark against US power; Europe’s refugee crisis is the direct result of this power), transnational corporatism (see TTIP), a wall of unpayable debt, neoliberalism and an economy based on finance and property?

    In or out of Europe this is the immediate future.

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  • If the money printing is going to be ramped up even more then I would expect to see some consequences sooner or later especially against the euro.

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  • britishblue says:

    I have a slightly different view to Libby. I believe that over time everything goes back to equilibrium. If the UK exit, I would expect to see a groundswell of support in other countries to leave as well. The French and Germans wont want to backstop the loss of British contributions. The Polish have already questioned the worth of the EU without the UK and take a look at the undercurrents in Spain, Greece and Italy. So I believe, if we leave, the EU as we know it will crumble in a couple of years. This is why we are seeing all the threats from Europe and Jean Claude Junker saying the British would be treated as deserters. ( if I remember rightly deserters got shot in the war). The EU and the UK has been stuck together with sticky plaster. The 2008 crisis was plastered over with QE and bank bail outs. So I think this could be the big one that crashes Europe and all its assets including house prices. This could have a devastating effect on all economies for a while. But going back to equilibrium this means in the aftermath, a young person on a normal wage would be able to put down a deposit on a vastly reduced starter home. Today the Prime Minister could barely afford an ex council house on his salary in many parts of London. My belief is that the elites believe this as well which is why the Remain campaign are pulling tricks out of the bag which are unheard of.

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  • letthemfall says:

    Whether house prices would drop after leaving the EU is not possible to tell, although severe economic ructions are probable. But the potential for political chaos and the steady rise in extremism is high. And all the false arguments about democracy and other claptrap we hear from the likes of libertas here, and Farage and cronies more widely, will have grim implications for us all. This may well prove to be the ultimate devastation caused by greedy elites – the complete disruption of the society on which they prey.

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  • its close : 7/4 to leave 4/9 to stay.

    Was closer last week but stay was 1/5 to begin with.

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  • Let’s face it the votes will be counted so that the remain camp prevail. I was in Florida 2004 when Bush ‘won’ and that’s the problem these days the British r now like the Americans and think they live in a democracy

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  • Let’s face it the votes will be counted so that the remain camp prevail. I was in Florida 2004 when Bush ‘won’ and that’s the problem these days the British r now like the Americans and think they live in a democracy

    It’s just too important a decision to leave to the plebs….

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  • tenyearstogetmymoneyback says:

    It’s been incredibly quiet on here recently.

    Currently 2:30am and the result is too close to call.

    If leave wins I’m wondering if this will trigger the big one ?

    £ is all over the place. How long before they have to increase interest rates to stabilise it ?

    I note Libertas comment on Norway and Switzerland but as I have been commenting over the last week their situation is entirely different,
    as they have the trade deals with the EU etc set up.

    I wonder how BoJo would get on negotiating a trade deal with Jean-Claude Juncker ?

    Long term Leave could be a good thing but by long term I am talking decades.

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