Friday, May 13, 2016

Could this be the best time to buy?

PROPERTY WARNING: Huge signs of house price CRASH as buyer numbers plunge

Best mortgage rates around at the moment..... huge uncertainty with the referendum..... most people stretched financially........

Posted by tom101 @ 10:41 AM (5530 views)
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12 thoughts on “Could this be the best time to buy?

  • I’m not so sure. There is evidence that demand for flats is falling, but not necessarily houses, and is it a lack of demand or a lack of supply? There was a mass hoovering of properties just prior to the stamp duty hike, which has most likely created a shortfall for the next month or two. From what I am seeing, in good value family homes, there is a surge in prices with the housing boom just commencing a new leg.

    With BREXIT, we will have at least two more years of uncontrolled immigration, yet a panic for folk to get in before the door slams. It could be utter chaos, whereas if we don’t have BREXIT, the flood of millions seeking an ever shrinking pool of properties will continue to increase.

    ONS “underestimated” immigrants by 1.5 million people, arguing that these are “short term” stays of up to a year. But these are the very people fuelling buy to let!!

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/12/the-gap-between-official-migrant-figures-and-the-truth-is-as-wid/

    Furthermore, with government fudging the stats, they are not being honest about how many schools, hospitals, teachers, police, judges, prison places, etc. are required, leading to severe shortages to the point where pregnant mothers are being turned away from hospital.

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  • Yep QG… which is why we need around 6 months for the jury to return it’s verdict.

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  • The jury will be out until around September and the numbers at that point could make interesting reading. I’ll be curious to see what Boy George then conjures up in his Autumn statement with the law of unintended consequences having come into play !

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  • I am tracking my property’s estimate on Zoopla. It makes an interesting case study for me.

    Prices were rising 19% up until April, when they dipped to 13.2%. I’ve seen recent uplift and prices seem to be rising again to 14.5%. This is consistent with a correction as a result of the new stamp duty regime, but not a crash. If there is now a shortage due to BTL hoovering, it may yet leap back to 19%.

    Incidentally, the major buyer in our area is the Local Authority, which is purchasing 5-10 properties a week apparently. They will not be affected by stamp duty, but are using the taxes of residents to price them out of buying to get social housing largely for immigrants and for Londoners from central London Boroughs being kicked out there.

    “The council is buying properties wherever it can afford to.”

    http://www.theguardian.com/cities/2014/sep/01/enfield-experiment-housing-problem-radical-solution

    These outer London suburb areas are also hot right now as people move from central for more green, but do not want to get beyond the oyster zones that will sometimes add £5k to a couple’s annual outgoings. Our annual travel card is about £2k, whereas jump to Hertford or St Albans, which are the next towns along, expect to pay £5k, and that seriously harms your mortgage borrowing potential now with affordability tests. As such, the government’s new mortgage regime is boosting the outer suburbs vs towns and villages beyond the greenbelt.

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  • libertas “I am tracking my property’s estimate on Zoopla”

    You should get out more. You’re sounding scarily like an estate agent.

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  • @5 the local authority either has to use taxpayer’s money to pay vastly over the odds to a private landlord, or provide the housing itself at a cheaper cost. It can borrow at a much cheaper rate than private landlords, and won’t face escalating rents after the purchase, so it’s a great solution. It would be better of course to build the homes itself on cost-free land, but altogether it’s a better solution in my opinion.
    Or maybe we can say that any household on less than say £40k needs to move out of London into ghettos like in Paris or in the extreme case, South Africa? Remember, 25% of private landlords get part or all of their rent paid for by the government, so it’s by no means only immigrants, and not even largely unemployed people.

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  • to continue the theme of the discussion, wouldn’t it be a good idea if the local authority could build houses and offer them at affordable rent? Oh yes that would be council housing – which unfortunately has been financial suicide for councils ever since the introduction of right to buy where they are forced to sell them at a massive discount and give the receipts to central government.

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  • 5… er why ? Are you married to Hilda..? Interesting case study … whatever floats your boat I suppose.

    Jack talking of boy George and the last “tumble” email…https://youtu.be/kwb9-OlQimc

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  • Who’s Hilda?

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  • As in Howard and Hilda… “ever decreasing circles”.. if you google a clip you’ll get it 😀

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  • Ah, I see. Thanks.

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