February 2016 Archive

Monday, February 29, 2016

Propping up a market is expensive

Guardian: Starter home buyers could receive £141,000 windfall from taxpayers

The government’s starter homes initiative could deliver a taxpayer-backed windfall of £141,000 each to 200,000 lucky first-time buyers, but 2 million more aspiring homeowners will be stuck renting, campaigners say. The scheme, which allows developers to replace shared ownership and affordable rented homes with properties sold at a 20% discount, has been widely criticised since it was first announced in December 2014. One of the key concerns for housing campaigners is that the homes can be sold on at the open-market rate after five years.

Posted by quiet guy @ 09:28 AM 7 Comments

Friday, February 26, 2016

Expect Enfield to hit top spot by July

Evening Standard: The latest Land Registry figures report price growth across the capital, with the most affordable areas having the highest rises.

Hillingdon, in west London, is the top performing borough, rising 15.5 per cent to £383,960. This is largely due to the Crossrail effect. ENFIELD, in north London, and in travel Zone 5, is second on the list, with 15.2 per cent growth and average prices of £372,869 (Edmonton is soaring much faster & look out for when it gets FIVE Crossrail 2 stations). Enfield's annual rate will also have gone stellar by July because it will have then had a whole year of London Overground plus Crossrail 2 will be granted this summer. Bexley, now overtaken by Barking & Dagenham to be London's cheapest Borough is set up for stellar price increases come 2019, when Abbey Wood Crossrail puts it firmly on the Central London Tube Map.

Posted by libertas @ 08:45 PM 14 Comments

Why you will never own a home ... New app explains

YouTube: Why you will never own a home ... New app explains

The real reason for unaffordable houses explained through the medium of a new economics app which ensures they remain unaffordable.

Posted by frizzers @ 02:21 PM 9 Comments

Thursday, February 25, 2016

Reasonable summary of factors

True Publica: Britain’s House Price Crash – 2016 Predictions Mount 8th February 2016 / United Kingdom

All looking very precarious now.... from overindebted brits to evaporation of "funny money" and taxation treatment of BTL. If we were to leave the EU then I think the pound is gonna struggle - and of course liquidating a portfolio or even an individual property is going to be challenging. Interesting cocktail.

Posted by techieman @ 09:36 AM 5 Comments

Wednesday, February 24, 2016

Londoners need 266% pay rise to buy home in the city, National Housing Federation claims

Independent: Londoners need 266% pay rise to buy home in the city, National Housing Federation claims

The value of a typical London home is now at £526,085, more than 16 times the £32,838 average salary of the ordinary worker, according to figures by the National Housing Federation (NHF), which represents affordable housing providers.

Posted by becky @ 01:29 PM 5 Comments

Propaganda piece of the day

BBC: Banks report new year buy-to-let rush

Major banks have provided more evidence of a burst of activity in the UK mortgage market by landlords keen to avoid a stamp duty rise. But Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist for Pantheon Macroeconomics, said that demand will continue to exceed supply in the property market, pushing up house prices as a result. "Looking ahead, we expect approvals to remain on an upward trend. Consumer confidence is high, real income gains remain strong and mortgage rates are set to fall again in response to the decline in wholesale funding costs," he said.

Posted by khards @ 10:47 AM 1 Comments

Tuesday, February 23, 2016

The trouble is Help to Buy just isn’t helping

Evening Standard: City comment: The trouble is Help to Buy just isn’t helping

"State loans and mortgage guarantees are, in the end, policies that support housing demand at a time when the Government’s focus ought to be trained, laser-like, on increasing housing supply. At best, they are a distraction. And the overwhelming likelihood remains that this policy has made the UK’s housing crisis worse. Help to Buy has not helped."

Posted by becky @ 04:06 PM 3 Comments

But..

Torygraph: Get ready to be showered by helicopter money

Interest rates are paid by people who borrow money, this is kind of a crucial point in our financial system. If you just print money, then the banks books go from -100:+100 to -100:+1000 and there are not enough borrowers to pay the interest. This is, if, for example, you felt interest rates would be a good way to control inflation. Or at the very least, you can capture zero interest rates, as the UK government has done by repatriating the interest paid to the BoE while pushing rising interest rates into the general population, but basically the same thing stands. This is imo the problem with helicopter money and why ultimately the central banks are bluffing, because they cannot drop helicopter money without losing pretty much the only rein they have on runaway inflation.

Posted by stillthinking @ 01:35 PM 10 Comments

Monday, February 22, 2016

Oooh noooo

Cnn: There's a big sale on Puerto Rican homes

"People are literally leaving their homes empty with the keys in the house," says retiree Maria Milagros Rodriquez. They let the bank deal with it.

Posted by mark @ 12:49 PM 0 Comments

Sunday, February 21, 2016

But even if you do pay Landlords will throw you out.

Channel 5: Can't Pay Won't Pay

Watched a couple of episodes of this Saturday afternoon. Misleading title - Should have been "Makes no difference if you pay because you will still get evicted". Worst case was three evictions of families with no real notice from the same road. All were up to date with the rent and while aware that court proceedings had started weren't expecting the Bailiffs around. The rumoured reason for the evictions - The landlord had decided they could get more money renting the properties as emergency housing so was throwing out the existing long term tenants !!!! Noticeable that in none of the programs did we actually get to see a landlord. I'm sure Mrs T didn't intend "Right to Buy" to end up like this.

Posted by tenyearstogetmymoneyback @ 08:27 AM 0 Comments

Thursday, February 18, 2016

No money? Not a problem, just keep on borrowing...

Telegraph: 'We've got £80,000 in student debt. Can we borrow £100,000 for our first home?'

Like many former students, Aaron Sharpe and his fiancée, Rachel Smith, have a lot of debt to pay off. But they’re also trying to organise a wedding – and Mr Sharpe is about to get a new job that will leave him £10,000 a year worse off. Together they owe almost £80,000 in student debt.

Posted by hpwatcher @ 08:44 AM 14 Comments

Tuesday, February 16, 2016

Anti money laundering checks finally coming to a despot near you...

Gruniard: Call to tighten UK's new property law to crack down on ‘dirty money’

ATED - Annual Tax on Enveloped Dwellings - was brought in as an attempt to get anonymous landowners to 'fess up. Not surprisingly, many chose to pay £200k+ per year to hide their identity. Will it come to pass that folk can no longer hide their ill gotten gains in broad (if intermittent and watery) daylight?

Posted by mombers @ 06:37 PM 0 Comments

Monday, February 15, 2016

16 years of supply hitting the market all at once, at prices nobody left standing can afford

The Evening Standard: Truth behind ‘sold’ signs as foreign buyers go cold on luxury London homes

So how will this market be cleared? "LonRes, the data analysis firm, reckons 54,000 homes are planned or under construction in the smartest areas of the capital, with most of them priced at £1 million or more. This is even though only 3900 homes were sold at more than £1 million in the whole of 2014 in these districts."

Posted by sneaker @ 01:16 PM 6 Comments

Asking prices are *not* selling prices; Cheap FLS cash continues to prop up housing

Telegraph: House asking prices hit all-time high of £299,287

UK property asking prices have hit an all-time record high of almost £300,000, new data suggests. House sellers so far this month have been seeking an average of £299,287 across England and Wales, according to property website Rightmove. The figure is an increase of £8,324 or 2.9 per cent from the average asking price in January, and is £2,738 above the previous all-time high set in October 2015.

Posted by hpwatcher @ 08:57 AM 3 Comments

Sunday, February 14, 2016

"Something Needs to be Done" – A Glimpse of the Future

Zero Hedge: The Negative Mortgage Rate Program

In reality, negative rates will only be a realistic proposition with those who have good loan to deposit ratios, but at the present trend rates in the UK are about to slam into negative mode. On the bright side, maybe government will start investing in more infrastructure? For those not yet on the housing ladder, watch out, because you may get negative rates but boy oh boy, once house prices start to rip higher, you will need an eye watering deposit to get the privilege of being paid to borrow as the average London house price sky rockets towards £1m in a very short period of time because this NIRP experiment will co-incide with the greatest immigrant boom we have ever seen (teaser, the immigration we've had to date is just a taste of the millions about to come over when France, etc. fall)

Posted by libertas @ 11:53 PM 4 Comments

Top Ten Causes of Wealth INequality

YouTube: Top Ten Causes of Wealth Inequality

Run down of the top ten causes of wealth inequality. Suspect it will chime here at HPC ...

Posted by frizzers @ 02:21 PM 1 Comments

Saturday, February 13, 2016

People farming, UK style

Guardian: Under-35s in the UK face becoming permanent renters, warns thinktank

Nine out of 10 Britons on modest incomes under the age of 35 will be frozen out of home ownership within a decade, according to a study from a leading thinktank that lays bare the impact of surging property prices on the young ... The thinktank, chaired by the former Conservative cabinet minister David Willetts, said that in 1998 more than half of people aged 16-34 living in households with incomes between 10% and 50% of the national average were buying their own homes. The percentage had dropped to 25% in 2013-14 and was on course to be 10% across the UK as a whole by 2025. In London it is forecast to be just 5%

Posted by quiet guy @ 12:37 PM 8 Comments

Thursday, February 11, 2016

The Riksbank elected to cut its policy rate from minus 0.35pc to minus 0.5pc on Thursday.

Telegraph: Sweden takes negative interest rates even lower as Riksbank fights to keep up with global stimulus

So, Sweden is actually working hard to keep consumer prices high. Who again do they work for?! Maybe countries with strong currencies should attempt to build stuff for local people and sell it to them if they are allowed to become more wealthy with a stronger currency? Regardless, this is a #longtermdeflationarytrend - and no amount of monetary policy will change it, so just deal with stronger currency, which has pro's and cons and is not all bad.

Posted by libertas @ 11:49 AM 6 Comments

Wednesday, February 10, 2016

'Mouldy Old Dough' (one for techieman)

BBC: Flat sold despite it being described as 'mouldy'

An Essex flat, has been sold for £22,000 over its asking price, despite it being described as "mouldy" and "full of rubbish". The candid ad showed pictures full of junk and mould and also admitted there could be "fleas to keep you company." Rather than deterring buyers the two bed property was actually sold for £147,500.

Posted by jack c @ 07:17 PM 13 Comments

DEFLATION is the game, Carney is a fraudster

Telegraph: Markets rule out UK interest rate rise until end of decade

Financial markets now believe there is a 50pc chance the Bank of England will cut rates this year. Will I get an apology for those who attacked me on this blog for stating the bleeding obvious that yes, rates cannot stay at 0.5% forever, because the only consistency in this world is change, but that shift can be down as well as up and negative is just as likely as positive at this point of time. Will you act accordingly, facing reality, or make inane statements about the relative morality of these statements? Furthermore, will you accept that Carney has DEFRAUDED millions of home owners into fixed term mortgage rates that now look exorbitantly expensive in possibly one of the largest mis-selling, rackateering scams in history to which nobody gains compensation & all receive tax hikes?

Posted by libertas @ 06:08 PM 7 Comments

JP Morgue predicts MINUS 2.69% rates for UK

Zero Hedge: JPM's Striking Forecast: ECB Could Cut Rates To -4.5%; BOJ To -3.45%; Fed To -1.3%

Hold onto your seats. No wonder Osbourne is attempting to regulate the housing market. At a rate like this, banks will be paying folk to take out a mortgage, but with that amount of deflation, money will gain value just sitting under a mattress, but he will not be able to stem hot money from the continent that from less than 4% rates there. As said, the US Dollar can still rise if Federal rates go negative, so long as it is not as negative as others. #longtermtrend

Posted by libertas @ 03:06 PM 8 Comments

Edmonton in Enfield is London's hottest market

Quickmovenow: 10 best places for a quick house sale

As I have been explaining for a while, Edmonton in Enfield, North London will be one of the hottest markets because of it suddenly coming onto London Overground, with Crossrail 2 about to run through it with no previous reason to buy there, resulting in a massive turnaround. Well, Quck Move Now have looked at the average time to sell a property and Edmonton is the only London ward in the top ten at number seven. The next great opportunity will be the next raft of stations to be taken over by TFL's London Overground, placing them too on the Central London Tube Map. My prediction is that houses in Edmonton will soon match prices in similar south London Overground zones such as Sydenham and Forest Hill where three bed houses exchange for more than £600k.

Posted by libertas @ 02:30 AM 5 Comments

Tuesday, February 9, 2016

Tory answer to mansion tax? Collect less tax from the most valuable homes!

Torygraph: Stamp duty changes have led to huge hole in receipts for Osborne

"Stamp duty changes made by the chancellor George Osborne have led to a 12.1pc decline in revenue during the first ten months of last year, according to new research. An over reliance on stamp duty from London and a decline in property transactions there has created a £620m deficit between January and October 2015, compared with the same period the year before, according to estate agency Knight Frank." This was obviously going to happen - transaction taxes tend to decrease transactions. If he'd instead gotten rid of the 0% rate for the imaginary council tax bands I-Z, revenue would have been raised. Local democracies could have even decided to raise extra for flood defences or care homes and not have to deal with the terrible consequences of unilateral Whitehall cuts

Posted by mombers @ 08:20 PM 3 Comments

You never know!

Telegraph: 10 reasons why I'm looking forward to the house price crash

Nonetheless, I can see how it could happen – and because the bubble is now so big, once it started it would quickly become totally unstoppable.

Posted by happy mondays @ 01:37 PM 3 Comments

Turn again Whittington

Daily Mail: Is London's luxury housing market about to crash?

Top hedge funds have placed multi-million-pound bets that the London luxury housing market will tank. Odey Asset Management, BlueMountain Capital Management and Anchorage Capital are reported to have shorted the stock of Berkeley Group, the London-focused housebuilder, according to the Financial Times last night.Fears of global economic meltdown, emerging markets currency falls and the Brexit referendum have led some investors to bet the demand for the top end of the housing market in London will collapse.

Posted by jack c @ 09:07 AM 0 Comments

Saturday, February 6, 2016

Is the property market as rigged as LIBOR?

The Independent: There’s a lot of flapping and clucking in the UK ‘luxury apartment’ market as the chickens come home to roost

"I was told this week by an industry insider that “85 per cent sold” really means “£2,000 deposits paid on 85 per cent”. And because they face an economic slowdown at home, Chinese investors in particular are saying: “Keep the £2,000 – and if you don’t like it come after us in the Chinese courts.” They are defaulting, in other words, with no consequences. And the result is that some developers are left holding a huge supply of apartments that few onshore buyers can afford. Prepare, said my nark, for 50 per cent-plus price drops."

Posted by sneaker @ 07:20 PM 4 Comments

Buy to rot!

Zero hedge: These Vancouver Homes Sold For Millions In 2011 And Have Been Vacant And Rotting Since: Here's Why

Over the pond in Vancouver Chinese investors ( sorry money launderers) have bought multi million pound properties and left them to rot. Exactly the same has happened in London, except that high rise apartments don't rot.But the impact of pricing locals out, having zero positive effect on ongoing GDP are exactly the same. Australia has taken action against this, The Chinese governement is supposedly coming down heavy on it and it looks like Canada will follow suit. How long will it be before this becomes an international issue like immigration and the UK takes action as well. I can see the possibility of a number of black swans colliding mid air when government policy on buy to let, non doms, and eventually foreign ownerships collides with economic reality.

Posted by britishblue @ 01:52 PM 3 Comments

'experts' dont know why?

Dailymail: Bank shares are plunging like 2007/2008

Well the real players know something is afoot....could it be the realisation they have been lending into the biggest property/credit bubble since japan 1992?

Posted by taffee @ 10:31 AM 6 Comments

Friday, February 5, 2016

Britain's version of the Beverley Hills tour

Thursday, February 4, 2016

Absolute disaster, please respond with anger

HM Treasury: Consultation on additional stamp duty for second homes

In this backwards proposal, married couples are treated as individuals and so will pay additional tax if they buy a new home and cannot sell their existing residence on time, with potential for a refund, but where will they find cash for the new tax? Also taxing those who need a second home for work or those who own a property overseas, maybe for family reasons. Meanwhile, the big corporate buy to let companies are EXEMPT from the tax, and unmarried couples can have two principle homes!! They are incentivising big landlords and also making moving house a total chore and creating a massive tax reason to get divorced or not get married. These people are clinically insane. Please let your MP know how angry you are.

Posted by libertas @ 12:35 PM 4 Comments

Wednesday, February 3, 2016

I thought there was a massive lack of supply

Dailymail: Half a million btlets could flood the market

another nail in the coffin for the bulls...THERE IS NOT A SHORTAGE OF PROPERTY...ITS JUST IN THE WRONG HANDS...if this does happen then expect banks to pull buy to let deals....spiral spiral

Posted by taffee @ 01:18 PM 18 Comments

Tuesday, February 2, 2016

Tulips in Central London

Estate Agent today: Estate Agent News

Articles describes how major portals are awash with top end resales of luxury flats in developments in London. This end of the market has been a casino for some time: People buying property but not living in it. Many of these concrete blocks with glass facades are soulless and not luxury living.These buyers are not immune from world events. The housing market oftne starts in Central London and snowballs out, if there is a crash in the central London apartment ponzi it will be interesting to see how this effects sentiment in the wider market

Posted by britishblue @ 08:48 AM 5 Comments

Monday, February 1, 2016

And BTL folk wonder why they have no mates?

Torygraph: 'I've doubled my yield through letting ex-council houses'

No shame at all - and no doubt a fair whack of the rent on these comes from Housing Benefit. And then this kicker: "He charges a weekly rent of £755, which equates to £39,260 p.a. His current gross yield is 6.3pc, but a new tube line opening nearby means he expects this to increase to 8.4pc by 2020." So nice to see where my taxes are going...

Posted by mombers @ 06:50 PM 2 Comments

Out-going tide revealing trash

Wall Street J: China Calls Lending Platform Ezubo a $7.6 Billion Ponzi Scheme

prosecutors are seeking restitution for 900,000 investors. Shadow banking Ezubo promised investors returns of 9% to 14.6%. Now regretting they didn't invest in the London property Ponzi instead.

Posted by mountain goat @ 01:05 PM 1 Comments

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