Sunday, January 10, 2016

Blood on the streets ? Not quite?

£85bn wiped off FTSE as pound plunges in the worst ever start to the year for the UK stock market

"The share slump in London has been echoed around the world with £1.6trillion wiped off global stocks this week."

Posted by techieman @ 08:27 AM (5975 views)
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30 thoughts on “Blood on the streets ? Not quite?

  • In August I wrote the following :

    “This time I believe its the START of the bear.

    More falls next week but soon after a substantial short covering rally which will pave the way for more falls likely into early next year.”

    Sunday, August 23, 2015 06:11AM

    I cant say the crystal ball still hasnt got some dust on, but I had a reasonable sized short position into January.

    That has been pared back at consecutive possible lines have support have been taken out.

    Next week will be volatile with swings in both directions. My feeling is there will soon be an interim low, sharp but relatively small rally against the downmove which will be an opportunity to sell into a new low before a more substantive rally.

    However position size will be reduced as I find I am more inclined to give the boys some money back after taking them for a few bob. And yes will be looking to go long (but not for long) on the large rally out of the trough.

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  • As for the pound (well cable at least) expect that to find support and reverse soon but exactly where and for how long?

    I see the Article includes an ultra bearish comment from Soros.

    Remember though its not about being right or wrong… its how well you do when you are right and how badly you do when you are wrong.

    So for example my size in S&P is one tenth of what it was going into January. I was surprised at how low we got in the US but was still short and hadnt picked the bottom. So yes I was wrong yesterday but still have an open short position.

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  • Sorry :Meant to say “I was surprised at how low we got in the US ON FRIDAY but was still short and hadnt picked the bottom. So yes I was wrong FRIDAY but still have an open short position.

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  • The biggest export we have, keeping the pound up, seems to be property (it’s a capital transfer, meaning we’re paying rent to foreign investors in increasing amount). If the pound drops, our rent may make their past investments less valuable, but would also make uk property cheaper. So would a fall in the pound help or hinder property prices?

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  • Ah techieman, the poster who forecast the end of BTL in 2010/2011 on the basis that decreasing yields would render it uneconomic.

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  • I think you are likely confused. Not for the first time.

    Nice to see consistency.

    Its well known that in a minority of 1 here I stated the end of the house price down move was in place more or less when it was. Its true to saying I didn’t expect new highs in either the UK house price metric or the us equity markets . As I said I lost far too much money trading shares so I looked to a different methodology.

    As for btl my feeling is the market is now dominated by amateurs.

    I think we are near an important but not the bottom in gold and similar position in crude … Although crude is a more difficult call. Gold will likely make a more important low in the spring.

    Just Pleased got out of MOST of the yellow stuff at 1300 to 1898. But as I always said I still have some of that. Remember you got very upset when I said 1930 was the very likely short term and probably long term high.

    I would be thinking of scaling back in come March to May..but we will see.

    Hope you have a good 2016.

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  • >I think you are likely confused.

    Not confused at all – that’s the claim you made i.e. that there was no viable yield in BTL. A forecast you made around 2010/2011.

    >Just Pleased got out of MOST of the yellow stuff at 1300 to 1898. But as I always said I still have some of that.

    You mean paper with the word ‘gold’ printed on it? There is a subtle difference.

    >Remember you got very upset when I said 1930 was the very likely short term and probably long term high.

    ”Very upset” – hahahahah your typical hyperbole. My expectations tend to be quite negative about gold, but you actually announced that the very top was 1680, I’m sure other posters clearly remember that too.

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  • Would the real techieman please stand up !

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  • Hpw… ive learnt over the years there is no point arguing with an idiot.

    paper schmaper…. very funny. . So paper gold isnt deliverable on comex ? yes blah blah blah manipulation. Negative on gold blimey def time to scale in ten . If you are so negative why own it ?

    1680 ? Actually I said above that I was getting out between 1300 and 1898. So yes I probably did announce 1680 was likely an intermediate top. But I actually said I would be shocked if it would go higher than 1930. You got very very very angry and ki think anogher poster “Tim” pointed out your error to which your stuck your fingers in your ears and likely went off to mummy.

    For BTL I said that most of the pros I knew at yhe time (5 with 15 plus each). Were getting out because they didnt like the yeild.

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  • Hi Jack…. is that proof enough ? ;:).

    Anyway, I think the thing is the fall in the ftse (and we have discssed this before) is possibly correlated to hpi.

    The article above this alludes to that. So i think we have about a 70% chance of seeing the top althought I wouldnt be shocked if we went a tiny bit higher later this year.

    btw thought of you the other day when Neil Woidford was on radio 5 live. Know you are a fan !!

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  • @Techieman

    “I think we are near an important but not the bottom in gold and similar position in crude … Although crude is a more difficult call. Gold will likely make a more important low in the spring.”

    I don’t own any metals these days but keep half an eye on it’s long demise and occasionally on Daneric as well. Ages ago, you quoted Daneric when you made your top call for gold. Daneric has been predicting a real smashing for gold for some years.

    September 2013 post: $475 is the virgin spot
    http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.co.uk/2013/09/elliott-wave-update-18-september-2013.html

    Few days ago: still looking for a metal bugs a malletting
    http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.co.uk/2016/01/elliott-wave-update-8-january-2016.html

    Do you give any credence to Daneric’s ideas about Au? I’m not asking for forecast – just if you are still interested in Daneric’s ideas?

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  • techieman (Monday, January 11, 2016 01:24PM) – you’ve been absent for a long time !

    I guess you are referring to Neil Woodford’s exclusive interview with Adam Parsons. Didn’t initially follow NW when he set up on his own but have since started to send him cash and as expected he’s done rather well.

    Oddly enough I was trying to think of the name of the American guy you flagged up several years ago ?- did a daily stock alert with nice charts via youtube

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  • Hi QG

    Yes Daneric is pretty good imo. I just looked at his take on Gold and it looks similar to what I said above… i.e. a low nowish then a move up and a final low down. BTW in EW terms the “C” wave he shows would be a capitulation . Whether that would go down to $475 I think is unlikely but who knows!? After that a “3rd” wave is predicted which would mean a huge increase in price.

    The problem is EW is very difficult to trade – even with other indicators (I would actually concede that HPW is right regarding that). I do have a new method if you are interested but I would first review at least one book by Van Tharp. I think his 1st edition of Trade your way to Financial Freedom is on the internet as a pdf.

    The 2nd edition is on Amazon.

    Jack C …. True I have I did come back for a couple of comments but I didn’t have a password! I think you mean Christian (who was very entertaining if nothing else).. I think he gave up !

    Yes re NW I know you are a fan. But I would have thought it difficult for him to fight a bear market…. how did he do in 2007/8?

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  • Hpw… ive learnt over the years there is no point arguing with an idiot.
    Of course, which is why you always choose to reply with abuse. That’s what you do best, it seems.

    paper schmaper…. very funny. . So paper gold isnt deliverable on comex ? yes blah blah blah manipulation. Negative on gold blimey def time to scale in ten . If you are so negative why own it ?
    You assume I hold gold – once again, jumping to conclusions. This then would mean absolutely nothing to you:-

    1680 ? Actually I said above that I was getting out between 1300 and 1898. So yes I probably did announce 1680 was likely an intermediate top.
    You said 1680 was the *very* top.

    You got very very very angry and ki think anogher poster “Tim” pointed out your error to which your stuck your fingers in your ears and likely went off to mummy.
    Yawn. At that point, I may have been concerned about the price of gold overheating, but I would not have been annoyed, as I didn’t really mind what people think. Everybody has reasons for the opinions that have, but they don’t effect the outcome.

    For BTL I said that most of the pros I knew at yhe time (5 with 15 plus each). Were getting out because they didnt like the yeild.
    At the time you said that, most of the UK was getting into it, and would have missed out on several years excellent yield, due to your advise.

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  • techie – welcome back !

    That’s the guy Christian at perrrrrrfect stock. I believe he has made a comeback via Facebook (which I don’t do)

    NW is almost constantly bearish and fills his fund (or funds when he was at Invesco P) with defensive’s – he did very well in 2007/08 mainly because he totally avoided banks and financials generally. The maximum drawdown on his funds at that time was highly favourable compared to other funds that operated in the UK Equity Income space.

    On a musical note I see we’ve lost a couple of legends recently

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  • If your ambition is to be a BTLr be one. I couldnt care less what you have or dont have to be honest. I actually dont really care what you think either. The bullion I have – yes I do have some , some of which ive taken delivery of in the past from the exchanges , has been hedged and ive also taken paper shorts but again who cares ?

    The reason I made that comment in August was not for my benefit was it ? I was already short !! Have you provided any help to anyone ever ? Nope you have just moaned about everything and then blamed others for your rather obvious shortcomings. Honestly I did sell Gold as I have said beween 1300 and 1898.

    Flashman and myself kept on suggesting to the General that he should perhaps look to take profits on some of his Gold holding but he kept saying we didnt know what we were talking about. I seem to remember you latched on to the General’s coatails.

    Again we didnt do that out of jealousy, i ( and flashman too )did it because I dont actually like to see ANYONE extend themselve and lose money.

    As for house prices lets just hope the bubble bursts soon so the young dont have to mortgage themselves for life .

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  • Sorry Jack that obviously wasnt meant for you but was me using my handbag (prada obviously) resplendent with a gold bullion brick for you know who.

    Yep NW is good no doubt but shorting is very difficult to do on shares ( you likely know you have to borrow them). So making a gain in a bear market when you are in equities must be incredibly difficult.

    Anyway I find it very odd that in 2011 when I mentioned on the day that 1930 was the top and I took a major short at 1898 tjen why Mr HPW got really pi55ed off rather than saying then “you said the high was 1680” is beyond me … or anyone whose sanity is intact.

    And anyway im at a loss why he gives a sh1t ??. I did ask him once for a call and once pressed he did do me the honour. Im pretty certain it was hopelessly wrong but ive not brought it up a la school playground. I left there more years ago than I care to remember.

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  • Sorry Jack that obviously wasnt meant for you but was me using my handbag (prada obviously) resplendent with a gold bullion brick for you know who.

    Yep NW is good no doubt but shorting is very difficult to do on shares ( you likely know you have to borrow them). So making a gain in a bear market when you are in equities must be incredibly difficult.

    Anyway I find it very odd that in 2011 when I mentioned on the day that 1930 was the top and I took a major short at 1898 tjen why Mr HPW got really pi55ed off rather than saying then “you said the high was 1680” is beyond me … or anyone whose sanity is intact.

    And anyway im at a loss why he gives a sh1t ??. I did ask him once for a call and once pressed he did do me the honour. Im pretty certain it was hopelessly wrong but ive not brought it up a la school playground. I left there more years ago than I care to remember.

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  • Sorry about the double posting. “Smart phone” obviously a misnomer.

    ok let me just finish this stuff with hpw as he is has this thing about me never really understood why.

    1. The big moves up in Gold started to scare me in 2011. These “one way bets” in commodities generally end in tears. So yes on the way up I was selling .

    At the time people were saying $2,000 even $5,000 per ounce.

    2. It is true to say that 1675 was a level I specified as an interim high and POSSIBLY THE TOP. However i said that if it broke 1575 on the way up then a TARGET would be 1675 for that move.

    3. At that time I did short some paper. There was a bit more upside and then a fall . The fall allowed the stop to be lowered to break even.

    4. Traders always look for levels to take profits / limit losses. I could give you examples from the recent move down in equity markets but that seems to upset you.

    5. Gold Cash was 1921 high, but it went a bit higher on the nearest futures contract. Again IF that broke 1900 to the downside then it was extremely likely (for various reasons ) that THE high was in. I actually said I would be shocked if it went higher but obviously it could have gone higher.

    No one KNOWS the top or bottom of any market but the higher it went the more probable the top was in.

    6. Its a bit non sensical what you say about Btl. Yes I would have said the yield I.e. the RENTAL yield was too low for the pros I knew to expand their portfolios at the prices at the time. I dont think I spoke of CG. Why would I on the one hand say the falls in hps were likely over and think there would be no CGs in buying hps.

    Right can you just now let this go ? Its more than a bit silly.

    If you had no position then why get so p1ssed off when I said I was getting out of most of my core gold holding at that time. As I said at the tine it wasnt like I didnt still have some (physical) gold , just not as much as before.

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  • 18. techieman said…

    To be honest, I never remember you holding much gold; possibly something negligible. You were always more taken up with your short positions on equities – which must have been more than painful over the past few years. Just sayin.

    This game is no-where near being over; it’s just entering a new – perhaps more terminal – phase.

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  • Hpw … likely because I never say how much I had. Yes equities were painful true, I said it at the time. Which is why I went back to the draeing board. A loss of most of the gain made in the credit crunch.

    I said I had “alot” of gold from the early 2000s when everyone thought it was going further south.

    Selective memory is a terrible tjing I hope you are on the way to recovery.

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  • Chaps lets get along

    Arguing about gold trading is like arguing about the 3.30pm at Kempton – it really is totally unimportant and I for one am utterly uninterested

    Now evidence based discussions on how hoarding gold as a hedge for financial collapses in a historic sense and its relationship to bubbles is an interesting topic and related to House Price crashes. As market analysis and its relationship with housing bubbles.

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  • techieman (Monday, January 11, 2016 11:02PM)

    Figured the response wasn’t aimed at myself. Retail investors tend to retain Woodford’s funds for the long term and a proportion of the returns will come from dividend re-investment. Most people are sensible enough to understand that he can’t eliminate market risk and that their will be periods where their holdings fall in value. So long as the positive periods outweigh the negative over the medium to long term everyone is generally happy.

    Agree with PG’s post above ie ideally “Chaps lets get along”

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  • I agree common goal and all that…still who wouldnt put the record straight when for the nth time they are being labeled a liar ???

    signed Tetchieman .

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  • Hi TM, I take your point however I’m not getting involved this time around as it was pointed out by other posters (rightly or wrongly) that I was partly instrumental in your departure from the HPC blog albeit the handbags at 20 paces posts were just a bit of fun. Frankly this site has IMO been a poorer place for your absence (along with several others). I actually think we are entering a critical phase in the housing and Equity/Bond markets so there will be much to debate. Hopefully you will be around for the ride !

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  • Lots of interesting issues in the bond markets, industrial output indices and the conspire loons are having a field day over the Baltic Dry Goods Index. Any opinions?

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  • Hi Techieman

    Thanks for feedback. I will follow up the Van Tharp reference.

    Hope you will keep posting.

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  • PG … commodities in a long term bear . BDI indicative of a collapse in world trade. PMI down . None of this is surprising. I think your Q relates to impact on Bonds / IRs in general.

    Does this sound like an environment that underpins ANY asset price rise ? Regarding bonds that is interesting. The costs of borrowing are very low in places. Notably here, germany and usa. Will soverign debt issues increase and will debt markets pressure irs up in more countries ?

    Short term think divergence continues. Longer term the worry is effectively contagion. Im not sure we want to visualise where we will be if that is the case but it doesn’t mean it wont be.

    QG hope its worthwhile and you enjoy it.

    Jack … no i never thought that. As I said I was very busy doing some nlp and getting myself to let go of my old mentality and embrace a new one. A difficult thing to do but worthwhile imo.

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  • TM – understood. No doubt we can continue to debate on fresh articles as this one will soon disappear from view.

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