December 2015 Archive

Saturday, December 26, 2015

Not mentioned..

Archinect: London's Bleak Housing

State of London housing. Apparently Tower Hamlets has been the only borough benefiting from additional construction. One of the reasons mentioned for the urgency of building is because of a " there is a mass exodus of 30-somethings in London that needs to be stemmed" due to spending half of their income in rent.

Posted by stillthinking @ 04:18 AM 35 Comments

Tuesday, December 22, 2015

What happens when plunging Brent Crude sends rates negative?

Market Oracle: UK Mortgage Interest Rates Recap of 2015

The year of 2015 will been seen by many as the year of the mortgage: competition increased until it reached boiling point, with all sectors of the market becoming embroiled in a fight for borrowers. As a result, rates plummeted until they eventually reached new all-time lows. Indeed, calculations from Moneyfacts.co.uk based on the average two-year fixed rate mortgage show that a new borrower would now be £805.44* a year better off than they were a year ago.

Posted by libertas @ 10:57 PM 13 Comments

FLS money (8.5bn in 2014 alone) continues to distort UK housing

Bloomberg: Cheap Money to Boost U.K. House Prices 6% in 2016, RICS Predicts

Low borrowing costs and a shortage of supply will drive U.K. house prices up 6 percent next year, according to the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors. Demand for housing remains strong, driven by record-low interest rates and a resilient economy, and values grew an annual 7 percent in October, according to the most recent data from the statistics office. Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne is attempting to boost supply and announced additional spending on housing last month.

Posted by hpwatcher @ 08:59 AM 17 Comments

Alarm bells are ringing

Daily mail: Fears of new financial crash

There is no proper recovery that's why we are on emergency economic measures.Now the bubble is far bigger Than 2007/2008 and when it bursts under it's own weight there will be nothing that can be done....scary stuff

Posted by taffee @ 07:26 AM 1 Comments

Sunday, December 20, 2015

A subject that will become more politically important

Telegraph: Millions give up on home ownership as house prices soar

Middle class families are giving up their dreams of home ownership as soaring costs and a lack of supply price millions out of the property market, according to Bank of England research. The Bank's annual survey of household finances revealed that just under half of all families who don't already own their own home believe they will never get on the housing ladder. This represents around 4.5m households and compares with 32pc who said they were confident of buying. The figures, which were buried in the depths of the Bank's survey, showed many middle class families also believe home ownership is out of reach, highlighting the depths of Britain's housing crisis.

Posted by quiet guy @ 01:37 PM 11 Comments

Friday, December 18, 2015

More than 50% of leaseholders not aware of 80-year rule

Bolt Burdon Kemp: Leaseholders in the Dark About the Cost of Extending a Lease

Bolt Burdon Kemp’s professional negligence team is committed to raising awareness of the traps that can befall property owners, often caused by solicitors giving negligent advice, which can seriously affect the value of their home. To bring attention to the particular dangers associated with leasehold property, we conducted a national survey with Onepoll of homeowners across England and Wales about the publics awareness of the dangers of owning a lease. As soon as a lease drops below 80 years in length, it becomes progressively less valuable and significantly more costly to extend, due to a law commonly known as the 80 year rule". Bolt Burdon Kemp’s survey has uncovered that more than half (56%) of people who currently own a lease do not know that the 80 year rule even exists.

Posted by tiffany holland @ 10:59 AM 0 Comments

Wednesday, December 16, 2015

It's happened

BBC: Fed raises interest rates

Everyone knew this was a done deal but we are awaiting the accompanying language

Posted by judgandury @ 07:16 PM 46 Comments

He obviously doesn't like it

BBC: Carney promises action on buy-to-let property market

Carney still thinks BTL is a threat to economic stability. Having sat out a 25% drop during the middle of the "ten years" in the 1990s because I actually needed somewhere to live (despite not liking the house) I (and Carney) wonder how many BTL "investors" would be prepared to do the same.

Posted by tenyearstogetmymoneyback @ 08:02 AM 14 Comments

Tuesday, December 15, 2015

What impact on cash availalbe to pour into housing?

Gruniard: A university funding system designed to crush the aspirations of the poor

"These are marginal rates of taxation rarely seen since the pre-Thatcher years. But they’re not for the fat cats. Rather, they hit those at a stage in life when they are trying to buy their first home and raise a family. If you are earning £50,000, you’ll be paying back your student loan for 20 years or more." Will be interesting to see what effect this has on demand for housing (in terms of how much money there is available to chase homes). MMR now takes student loans into account, taking a whole lot of income out of the equation for levering up a loan on.

Posted by mombers @ 01:55 PM 1 Comments

This could align locals with more building - broaden the tax base?

Gruniard: Local authorities should have greater tax-raising powers, says thinktank

"The chancellor, who said earlier this year he will allow newly combined authorities in the north and Midlands to keep extra revenues from business rates collections by 2020, should hand over more tax raising powers to the regions to raise billions of pounds more to attract jobs and investment." It's bananas that councils don't raise most of their own money - this totally neuters local democracy. And of course it is highly questionable that the richest landowners in the world should get some of their local services paid for by people on minimum wage via national taxes... If councils could keep all of their property taxes (even the dreadful stamp duty) locals would have an incentive to allow building - better services and/or lower taxes

Posted by mombers @ 01:50 PM 0 Comments

Wonkish but worth a read

Bank Underground: House Prices and Job Losses

"Conclusion: Given the increased importance of labour market variables in the recent policy debate in the UK (particularly the choice of the unemployment rate as a key component of the MPC’s forward guidance) as well as the increased financial stability concerns regarding house price dynamics, it is essential to better understand the drivers of the striking comovement between house prices and labour markets in the UK." Again, this should not be a surprise to long time readers of this blog but it's nice to see the Bank of England's in house blog finally catching up :)

Posted by quiet guy @ 12:05 AM 2 Comments

Monday, December 14, 2015

Ooops.

FT: Stealing London houses

This is in the blogs section not behind the paywall. A quick 1.3 mil. anyone?

Posted by chrisch @ 04:57 PM 1 Comments

Sunday, December 13, 2015

We need more new towns

Guardian: Slump in new public housing threatens chancellor's targets

A sharp decline in new home building by housing associations and local authorities this year could wreck the government’s plans to build 1m new homes by 2020. Housebuilding by the public sector slumped in October, according to official figures, adding to a series of month-on-month falls going back to the election that undermine minister’s claims of a revolution in house building. George Osborne told MPs in his autumn statement last month that measures to support housebuilding would add 400,000 affordable homes by 2020.

Posted by quiet guy @ 11:39 AM 3 Comments

Thursday, December 10, 2015

More welfare for landowners and banks

BBC: Help to Buy 'propping up housing market'

The Government's Help to Buy scheme for new homes has become a critical factor in keeping land values high thus destroying jobs, investment and our children's future

Posted by pete green @ 11:42 PM 16 Comments

Is it house building on money supply that pushes up the monoply

Tory Home: Further evidence that building more houses is not enough to make them more affordable

It is a fascinating question but what is the real driver of house prices? Supply-demand or money supply. Well of course it is both but I guess its far more about money supply....

Posted by pete green @ 11:25 PM 10 Comments

New housing versus industrial waste pile

Daily Mail: Could Cornish slag heap become a Unesco site?

"Dominating the local landscape, it has been part of life in this Cornish town for decades. Now campaigners are tying to protect this historic 'landmark' by declaring it a World Heritage Sight – even though it is just a massive slag heap. The Great Treverbyn Tip, or 'Sky Tip', is made from dumped china clay and was first created in 1936, but it is now under threat from plans to flatten it to make way for an eco-town." It seems anything is better than the prospect of new houses being built.

Posted by quiet guy @ 10:52 PM 0 Comments

Secure, cheap housing for low mortgage owner occupiers only...

Gruniard: Council tenants lose lifetime right to live in property

Not sure if this has been thought through. If the deal is if your income is significantly higher after 5 years you get the boot, surely there will be an overwhelming temptation to work shorter hours / take a lower paying job / etc. close to the time that your home gets means tested? Or maybe even get knocked up to keep your home? The figures are enormous - difference between council and private rents is huge in the best locations. People on modest incomes in London council houses would have to move miles and miles away from their communities if they were booted into the private sector. There's also the question of whether this should be any of central government's business. Council houses belong to councils, they pay for themselves, and this is a matter best left to local residents.

Posted by mombers @ 01:48 PM 0 Comments

North/South contrast

Guardian: Councils in southern England dragging their heels on housing, says thinktank

New housing developments are less likely to be approved by councils in the south of England, where there is an acute shortage of supply, than in the north due to local authorities “dragging their heels”, a report says. Councils are rejecting plans, particularly in rural areas, in the face of significant population growth, according to the thinktank Demos. Maldon district council, in Essex, approved just 25% of the 64 applications it received between 2010 and 2015, making it the worst local authority in England for rejecting planning applications for major residential projects. In contrast, Copeland, in Cumbria, approved 100% of 40 applications in the five years analysed.

Posted by quiet guy @ 09:58 AM 1 Comments

Tax land cheaper and more house building

FT: Tax reform is key to solving housing crisis, Lords told

“Our housing stock isn't used terribly efficiently in this country, we have a lot of under-occupancy for example, particularly in the owner-occupied sector.

Posted by pete green @ 01:04 AM 18 Comments

Wednesday, December 9, 2015

Furgus in Ashford Firesale

Torygraph: Fergus Wilson, Britain's most iconic buy-to-let investor, sells up all 900 houses for £250m

I wonder what the fallout of this will be. Fergus has finally had to put his properties on the open market after telling us all a foreign investor would buy them all. He has of course tried to do this before....

Posted by pete green @ 03:28 PM 12 Comments

Tuesday, December 8, 2015

Possibly not the way it works.

Telegraph: For all their big spending central banks cannot control inflation

This is a fairly humdrum article apart from "It could be that near-zero interest rates actually depress inflation" which is what I personally believe. It is hard to see how reducing interest rates to the extent that prices go to the roof is meant to encourage further credit expansion. Or put it another way, the people who made the biggest gains from housing bought when interest rates were high. So when interest rates are forced up, and it is forced its not the natural economy its purely government and central bank debasement, then imo there will be an explosion in credit expansion and reasonably enough the central banks will struggle to control what is easy money for nothing. As usual the big loser will be the naive sterling saver.

Posted by stillthinking @ 03:01 AM 0 Comments

Wednesday, December 2, 2015

Sky News uses a well known HPC phrase

Sky News: Many New-Build Homes Like 'Rabbit Hutches'

Many new family homes being built in England are like rabbit hutches because they are too small to live in comfortably, a report has warned. It found that on average a new three-bedroom home sold outside London is four square metres short of what buyers need – equivalent to the size of a family bathroom. The study by the Royal Institute of British Architects (RIBA) compared the sizes of new three-bedroom homes on more than 100 developments across England against new, optional space standards introduced in October.

Posted by jack c @ 01:26 PM 64 Comments

Interesting magazine article from the beeb

BBC: Why so many empty homes?

The costs of letting, including wear and tear and administration, can outweigh any money taken from rent, he says. HPI forever.

Posted by chrisch @ 11:37 AM 4 Comments

Tuesday, December 1, 2015

Lie-to-bet

Guardian: Won’t anyone think of the poor ‘buy-to-let dreamers’?

Q: So they’re dividing Britons back into landed aristocrats and serfs? A: Basically. Q: What’s the problem? A: The serfs don’t like it.

Posted by mountain goat @ 06:35 PM 0 Comments

Lots on housing in this week's Virgin podcast

Virgin Podcast: The Virgin Podcast - Rohan Silva

Today the Virgin Podcast is reporting to you from 'London’s coolest workplace', Second Home in Shoreditch. And we’re speaking to the boss, co-founder Rohan Silva. We hear the Second Home story, we discuss the impact the environment in which we live and work can have on our lives and we put the boot into London’s failing property market. "Poor planning laws and cynical developers are a toxic combination," says Rohan. "The cartel of housebuilders is the only group who benefits from the system as it is today. We have to brave enough to fight that... to trust in the distributed intelligence of millions of people."

Posted by frizzers @ 02:51 PM 0 Comments

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