Friday, Nov 13, 2015

Then like my dreams they fade and die...

Bloomberg: London home Bubble May Have Burst

Now, “36 percent of all properties currently on the market across prime central London are being marketed at a lower price than they were originally listed at, with the average reduction in price being 8.5 percent.”
A good start, and plenty further to fall in the big smoke?

Posted by debtserf @ 09:38 AM (8373 views)
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27 Comments

1. Jmzr said...

and 64% aren't.....

move on, nothing to see here

keep dreaming, but it's never going to happen

Friday, November 13, 2015 04:05PM Report Comment
 

2. khards said...

LOL! Quite a few bear nibbles today..

Friday, November 13, 2015 04:45PM Report Comment
 

3. libertas said...

Yes, central London prices are correcting to absorb new taxes.

Suburbs unaffected by them YET are still soaring. Our area in east Enfield is rising at circa 17% right now, dwarfing Enfield as a whole due to London Overground putting us on the tube map and Crossrail 2 about to kick off.

Friday, November 13, 2015 11:39PM Report Comment
 

4. taffee said...

Think crosstalk is a bit of a red herring but it's being used to inflate prices around the station's....rail services within m25
Have always been pretty good getting you to central London within 15-35 minutes.

Friend drove past Woolwich crossrail with big sign outside saying trains to bond street in 22 minutes!...whoopy do.5 minutes quicker than before whilst marketing flats next door at 500-700k

Ridiculous...when this bubble bursts its gonna look so crazy looking back

Saturday, November 14, 2015 08:00AM Report Comment
 

5. taffee said...

Meant crossrail of course not crosstalk!...pre-emptive text for you

Saturday, November 14, 2015 08:01AM Report Comment
 

6. libertas said...

No, Woolwich is not a bubble. It is a huge new city. 12 high capacity trains per hour with DIRECT connections to Canary Wharf, The City and West End. Sorry, but you don't get much better than that. But Abbey Wood is the place to look, because unlike Woolwich, it is not yet on the tube map, so I WOULD NOT BUY IN WOOLWICH because prices will rise faster in Abbey Wood.

Abbey Wood and Belvedere are the places to buy until 2018. Forget the other eastern arm, because it is already on the tube map with TFL Rail.

Saturday, November 14, 2015 10:48PM Report Comment
 

7. libertas said...

Actually, Woolwich is presently 35 mins to Bond Street and you have to change onto packed Jubilee Line trains after riding a rickety DLR. 22mins is a major saving of 26mins savings for a return trip every day and you will likely get a seat all the way.

It will be:
8 mins to Canary Wharf
14 mins to Liverpool Street
19 mins to Tottenham Court Road
25 mins to Paddington

Abbey Wood is 3mins further down the line and as said, is not on the tube map, so has a long way to catch up.

Saturday, November 14, 2015 10:53PM Report Comment
 

8. taffee said...

Don't see how this justifies the crazy prices...thermocouple taking out 500k mortgages for overpriced rabbit hatches
With very high maintenance fees may feel a little short changed in the near future

Sunday, November 15, 2015 07:19AM Report Comment
 

9. taffee said...

http://www.thetrainline.com/train-times/ebbsfleet-international-to-london-st-pancras-intl

But people should be looking further a field like ebbsfleet...you can even park at the station...st Pancras 18 minutes
And prices are at least half...more likely one third for flats versus Woolworth

That's why prices in London are set to plummet when the penny drops

Sunday, November 15, 2015 07:26AM Report Comment
 

10. libertas said...

Taffee, you missed that boat. The ONLY way to profit from new rail links is PURCHASE BEFORE THEY ARE IN PLACE.

Ebbsfleet is on the train link now, so prices have already adjusted.

This is a risky strategy because rail links can shift. I know many folk upset about Tooting missing out. But if you get it right, it is a sure fire way to make swift gains. That is why I suggest Abbey Wood. One of the few places on the new Crossrail link not presently on the London Tube Map that will be on it late 2019.

Sunday, November 15, 2015 10:50AM Report Comment
 

11. taffee said...

Having lived in London you can get most places including central London within 15-35 minutes and have been able to do so for decades

Never before has living close to a station meant so much in terms of price premium

When the bubble bursts people won't care

Areas where you could walk to central London like Notting hill people didn't want to know as they became run by the equivalent of today's buy to let barons

Sunday, November 15, 2015 11:43AM Report Comment
 

12. mister ed said...

Abbey Wood.

Lovely.

Thamesmead is nice too.

You can get almost any drug you want with a ten minute walk. Unfortunately, getting there and back in total safety is a bit of a challenge.

Schools are good too. Especially if you want your kid to leave school illiterate and destined for chavdom.

See, people, there are opportunities for a better life everywhere if only you would open your eyes.

Sunday, November 15, 2015 12:46PM Report Comment
 

13. mark said...

if the average salary is 25k - 35k depending on what you read, then how can people borrow more than 175k jointly and how can price hikes keep continuing if the fundamentals are not in place its all laughable and will come crashing down

they can hike prices of terraced houses in the north east to 500million but they will never sell as no-one can ever buy - so who are the stupid vendors and estate agents trying to fool ? only themselves

Sunday, November 15, 2015 12:49PM Report Comment
 

14. taffee said...

It's a speculative bubble....people do whatever it takes to get in....including dubious things!..when the bubble bursts
Well really see what going on....like in 2008/2009 with liar loans

Sunday, November 15, 2015 03:25PM Report Comment
 

15. This comment has been removed as it was found to be in breach of our Blog Policies.

 

16. libertas said...

Taffee, housing has been in a 5,000 year bubble in that case. I understand that houses were exchanging hands for a couple hundred pounds at the turn of the century, and that people have invested in homes since we gave up our nomadic ways. Prices gyrate around a trajectory that is LEVERAGED to wages and supply and demand.

Thus, house prices will only fall in the long term if wages start falling. THIS HAS OCCURRED in the industrial heartlands, but anybody who thinks London is on for anything more than cyclical correction for the next decade or two as it stampedes towards 11 million residents with an almost unstoppable rise in employment provision is out of their minds.

Sunday, November 15, 2015 04:28PM Report Comment
 

17. mister ed said...

"Mark, the AVERAGE London wage is circa 36k. Average wage of house buyers is much higher still."

I see. So people who buy houses need above-average wages (like people who have taxpayer-funded jobs in local governments)

All together now...

His name was Planning4acrash
He said housing was in for a big smash
Then his mum bunged him a lotta cash
So he changed his name to Libertas

Now he's a fully paid-up housing bull
He dreams of semis with swimming pools
And people who didn't choose rich parents
Are nothing more than poor fools

The taxpayer funds his employment
No fears of being made redundant
Though he says governments destroy wealth
Government jobs give his financial health

He says he's for private investment
But he loves the public paying for railways
Because it makes his house price rise quick
And he'll make a public-funded profit

So he sits in his house in Enfield
No big mortgage to make himself skint
He's a wealth-creating capitalist
On a salary from the Guv'mint

LOL

Sunday, November 15, 2015 05:23PM Report Comment
 

18. Norseraider said...

At Mister Ed .... LOL... genius.

Monday, November 16, 2015 03:54PM Report Comment
 

19. This comment has been removed as it was found to be in breach of our Blog Policies.

 

20. sneaker said...

We fixed a bubble, by creating a bubble.

Monday, November 16, 2015 06:26PM Report Comment
 

21. pete green said...

Libby or more succinctly your ideology shifts to what you hope is in your best interests & there in lies the rub for so many so called libertarians & right wing politics in general:

Monday, November 16, 2015 07:44PM Report Comment
 

22. mark said...

Libertas

why the insults you are the one who is acting more like an estate agent believing prices can only go up

please read what i wrote correctly then use your basic understanding to understand what i wrote

Tuesday, November 17, 2015 09:55AM Report Comment
 

23. Allez_l'om said...

Classic confirmation bias case.

Tuesday, November 17, 2015 11:34AM Report Comment
 

24. letthemfall said...

Complex thought. So that's where the cloud-seeding conspiracy theories come from.

Tuesday, November 17, 2015 06:03PM Report Comment
 

25. Chilli said...

libertas

I earn over 100k pa. I save 30k pa. I'm looking to buy in uxbridge or west Drayton. Clearly I'm doing brilliantly. I'm very lucky to earn what I do and save what I can. And clearly I'm not being very ambitious at all. These are not particularly good areas. By 'suburbs' I have to assume you mean these neighbourhoods as any further out isn't london anymore.

But... House price inflation exceeded the rate of my savings last year.

What more do I need to say?

Anyway it looks like China have introduced capital controls. That looks like just the thing to completely screw London property prices. Here's hoping.

Tuesday, November 17, 2015 06:38PM Report Comment
 

26. mister ed said...

@22

Yes, complex thought.

That, no doubt, is also the wellspring of Libbys Theorem of HPI (3.5% wage increases lead to sustainable 10.5% house price increases), along with the pronouncements Heathrow Airport to be turned into a housing estate, and commuters will use steam trains on vintage railways to commute into London.

When a man has a fine mind capable of complex thought, there is no limit to what he can invent, nor how often he can change his point of view or engage in doublethink.

Tuesday, November 17, 2015 08:57PM Report Comment
 

27. libertas said...

Mister Ed, it was not I who called for Heathrow to be turned into a housing estate, it was freaking Boris Johnson, who may well become Prime Minister and get his own back.

And you shout about my statement about price rises, yet prices are rising over 10% in London and have been for a few years now, yet reality does not matter to you at this point. You have not seen anything yet once London gets 11 million people.

Tuesday, November 17, 2015 10:22PM Report Comment
 

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