October 2015 Archive

Friday, October 30, 2015

Out of control immigration ensures UK house price bull market for at least another decade

Market Oracle: ONS UK Population Immigration Panic, Forecast 10 Million Increase

Recent ONS population data suggests that the UK population could increase by an additional 4 million by 2030 as a consequence of what amounts to continuing out of control immigration and high birth rate that in total would translate into a population increase equivalent to 15 cities the size of Birmingham. The bottom line is that out of control immigration ensures that the likes of the UK house prices bull market looks set to continue for at least another decade!

Posted by libertas @ 11:10 PM 11 Comments

Dominic Frisby looks at London property investments...

MoneyWeek: The bubble in London property

London property has won the dubious distinction of topping an index of asset bubbles, says Dominic Frisby. Will the London bubble pop?

Posted by andrew.williams @ 12:01 PM 0 Comments

Thursday, October 29, 2015

Current UK economic slowdown may hasten the BOOM!

Telegraph: London on course to become next house price bubble fatality, warns UBS

''UBS warns "explosive" house price growth since 2013 has fuelled an overvalued market that could see - Soaring house prices in London have fuelled a "bubble-risk" that has left the capital most in danger of a correction out of all major cities in the world, UBS has warned.''

Posted by hpwatcher @ 04:44 PM 8 Comments

Wednesday, October 28, 2015

Ups and Downs

Guardian: Britain is heading for another 2008 crash: here’s why

There were three times in recent decades when the government ran a surplus: Note how each surplus is followed, within a certain number of years, by an equal and opposite recession. There’s every reason to believe that’s exactly what’s about to happen now. At the moment, Conservative policy is to create a housing bubble. Inflated housing prices create a boom in construction and that makes it look as if the economy is growing. But it can only be paid for by saddling homeowners with more and more mortgage debt.

Posted by quiet guy @ 11:30 PM 4 Comments

The next property boom : The Lea Valley of Haringey, Enfield and Broxbourne

Transport for London: Crossrail 2 factsheet: Services between Enfield Lock and Tottenham Hale

Well, here we go. The Lea Valley, starting from very humble beginnings, is about to undergo serious transformation. But there are still affordable starter homes for now. Whereas properties in Chingford and also west of the A10 are now significantly more expensive, that could well reverse as a result of this line increasing services from in some cases two trains per hour up to 15 trains per hour. The rest of the route is also being consulted on, with notable changes at Wood Green, which will boom, along with Balham rather than Tooting, and a couple of tweaks to the South West Trains routes. Seems like it is full steam ahead, but don't worry, most people do not act until the line is actually built, so you still have a good 10yrs of investing ahead.

Posted by libertas @ 02:35 AM 23 Comments

Monday, October 26, 2015

Notes on for business versus housing

Shaun Richards at Notayesmanseconomics Blog: UK mortgage lending grows whilst business lending sinks and Carney spins

There is much to consider here as we note that for all the cries of Bank of England independence it has been aligned with the UK establishment in boosting the housing market. The UK government has had its own policies and Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg asked for FLS to be put “on steroids” back in March 2013. Does £61.4 billion qualify?

Posted by quiet guy @ 08:27 PM 2 Comments

List of tent cities in the United States

Wikipedia.org: America's Shame: 2015's answer to US homelessness

Parts of the US - the worlds ''leading nation'' - now resemble the shanty towns in Brazil or the populated rubbish tips in India. If it looks like a depression, it's a depression.

Posted by hpwatcher @ 09:40 AM 2 Comments

Sunday, October 25, 2015

The rhetoric begins to shift.

Telegraph: UK Interest rate rise "not a guarantee" states Mark Carney

Mark Carney said about four per cent of mortgage holders were at risk. But he insisted any interest rates rise would be 'gentle' and not steep However he said there was no certainty that rates would rise, but it was "the central expectation".

Posted by libertas @ 08:56 PM 6 Comments

Friday, October 23, 2015

What happens when negative rates occur in UK?

Zero Hedge: This Is What Happens After Three Years Of Negative Interest Rates

Property prices in Copenhagen have risen 40-60 percent since the middle of 2012, when the central bank first resorted to negative interest rates to defend the krone’s peg to the euro. Meanwhile, Draghi is speaking of more QE, lower rates and even the Fed is mulling negative rates, as commodity prices continue to collapse. But this does make sense. Lower rates entail a short time preference for money, i.e. spend now rather than invest, but that makes economic sense when production costs are collapsing whilst production levels are high with claims of excess supplies of things like steel, etc. Negative rates could mop up some of that steel production with a few more sky scrapers being built.

Posted by libertas @ 11:05 AM 25 Comments

Wednesday, October 21, 2015

Make the land cheaper to get them building

Financial Times: Adopt German land reform, think-tank says

FT advocating the use of the value of land to get more housing built - it is of course much simpler with Land Value Taxes “It is clear that Britain’s broken housing market needs to be fundamentally reformed if construction rates are to jump and the redistribution of taxes for housing benefit due to excessively high rents is to fall,” said Thomas Aubrey, the report’s author.

Posted by pete green @ 09:21 AM 0 Comments

Tuesday, October 20, 2015

"London is unaffordable for all but the rich or fortunate"

Yorkshire Evening Post: Priced out: Average earners face 100 year wait to save mortgage deposit

Buyers are being priced out of their home towns - with average earners in some parts of the country looking at saving for more than 100 years to afford an average priced property where they live. An average worker in Brighton, taking home £23,488, would need to save for 104.2 years to have a large enough deposit for an average priced property in the area - £350,222.

Posted by jack c @ 05:29 PM 24 Comments

Saturday, October 17, 2015

And something from the Tory press to add balance

Telegraph: Parents of dead student charged by landlord

You can pay over a couple of years. Toogood to be true?

Posted by chrisch @ 10:19 AM 1 Comments

I wonder if this is influencing the Tory MP chap?

Guardian: Landlords taking £5.6Bn for unfit homes

Something we know only too well.

Posted by chrisch @ 10:09 AM 0 Comments

Lets all live in a hole in the ground

Independent: Tory MP says law requiring fit for habitatio a burden

It must be nearly Christmas and old Scrooge is about to get his annual visit. Just don't wrap the present in red tape.

Posted by chrisch @ 09:58 AM 8 Comments

Contained or start of something else?

CNBC: London prime falls off a cliff

Demand falling off a cliff?....I thought supply was limited and demand red hot and prices endlessly went up. Hope we don't see blocks of new ugly tower blocks empty!!!!

Posted by taffee @ 08:21 AM 1 Comments

Real world ZIRP for renters

Notayesmanseconomics's Blog: Generation Rent sees increases of 6.3% on average whilst being told it's disinflation

Today has seen the publication of new figures for rents in the UK private-sector and they provide an example of “And the beat goes on”. Indeed as I will discuss they provide quite a counterpoint to the UK inflation figures which only on Tuesday told us that the headline CPI rate of inflation was -0.1% ... Rental inflation surges again. The latest numbers from Your Move and Reed Rains tell a very different story. Average rents now stand at a new record of £816 per month, after rising by 1.6% between August and September. So we immediately get a very different story to that presented in the official inflation data as those who pay rent presumably have steam coming out of their ears. This issue is exacerbated even further if we look at the annual numbers.

Posted by quiet guy @ 02:01 AM 4 Comments

Wednesday, October 14, 2015

"280,000 households at risk of homelessness"

Sky News: UK 'Breaching Human Rights' Over Housing

The UK is in breach of its international human rights duties by failing to provide people with adequate homes in the face of a severe housing crisis, leading charities have claimed. A reduction in social housing in England and inadequate, unaffordable rental accommodation in the private sector is driving a growing number of families into homelessness, the organisations warn in a report.

Posted by jack c @ 02:36 PM 4 Comments

Bad news for multi mllionaires

Evening Standard: Price of £1m plus London homes slashed amid George Osborne’s stamp duty shake-up

The article is based on an analysis of Zoopla figures by the Evening Standard. hmm... "Frank Speir of buying agency Prime Purchase described the London market at above £2 million as “at a complete standstill” adding that even the credit crunch had less impact than stamp duty rises of recent years."

Posted by cyril @ 08:48 AM 13 Comments

Tuesday, October 13, 2015

Graduate share a bedroom scheme gathers pace

Guardian: Soaring London house prices sucking cash out of economy, study says

Soaring London house prices are costing the economy more than £1bn a year and preventing the creation of thousands of jobs, as individuals plough money into buying and renting instead of spending their cash elsewhere, a report has claimed.

Posted by jack c @ 11:31 AM 28 Comments

Thursday, October 8, 2015

Can the Tories convince the unlanded that they have their backs?

Torygraph: The real ticking time bomb for the Tories is home ownership

This chap seems to narrowly define ownership and private property as only residential housing. Hilarious that he sees France's higher homeownership as a good thing! The most successful parts of the country are dominated by renters - London is under half homeowner. For good labour mobility, you need people to be able to move easily, which you simply don't have if everyone owns. Even without stamp duty and a conveyancing system that almost seems designed to slow things down, you require a much bigger career opportunity to move if you own rather than rent. What is needed is secure, good quality rental accommodation for the young and older people on low incomes, and a norm of buying your first home when you truly settle down, e.g. kids start school.

Posted by mombers @ 01:48 PM 9 Comments

Wednesday, October 7, 2015

Are they feeling the heat?

Guardian: Are they feeling the heat?

"David Cameron will promise to sweep away planning rules that require property developers to build affordable homes for rent in a bid to increase the building of homes for first-time buyers. In a bid to shift from generation rent to generation buy, Cameron will say in his speech at the Conservative party conference on Wednesday that he hopes his new starter homes proposal can unblock housebuilding in the UK by abolishing demands that developers provide a certain amount of affordable housing to rent in new developments." I'm pretty cold towards all political parties when it comes to housing policy but who knows? Could the current lot have stumbled across something useful?

Posted by quiet guy @ 01:06 AM 21 Comments

Monday, October 5, 2015

A growing voting block - no wonder BTL is under attack even by the Tories

Torygraph: Generation rent: the reluctant rise of the older tenant

"Silver-haired housemates still writing their name on their milk in the fridge? It’s the future, says seasoned tenant Hannah Betts " Of course the taxpayer is picking up the tab for a lot of these rents (25% of private rents are paid in part or full by Housing Benefit), and probably all of them once these poor people retire.

Posted by mombers @ 11:24 AM 8 Comments

Disillusioned by Britain's dysfunctional housing market

Telegraph: Downsize to raise cash? It would COST us £90,000

Beryl Morris is keen to sell her two-storey, four-bedroom family home in the near future. She and her husband have loved it for the 33 years they've lived there - but now it’s too big to manage. Downsizing isn’t an option for the couple, however.

Posted by cornishman @ 08:18 AM 9 Comments

Sunday, October 4, 2015

Amazing Tory policy on housing

Stephentall: 18 posters in which the Consrvatives promise to build more housing

I found this link on another blog yesterday and it is absolutely staggering and just shows how far the Conservatives and New Labour have moved away from mainstream policies. Conservative policies of yesteryear would be described as extreme Corbynomics by many of our deluded politicians.

Posted by britishblue @ 11:40 AM 0 Comments

Saturday, October 3, 2015

US 1 & 3 month bonds go negative

UK.Investing: U.S. 1-Month Bond Yield Overview

With 1 month US bonds confidently negative, 3 month bonds a yo-yo ing from negative to positive, pivoting around zero and the yield on 6-month treasuries actually declined 19 basis point in past month. "None of this "should be happening" in a rising rate environment with an allegedly strengthening economy" with this indicative of coming recessionary conditions states Mike Shedlock: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article52509.html : Though Mike ignores that there is a global economy at stake, and this represents capital flowing into the US market, possibly from China and Europe, but also places like Brazil, combined with the US experiencing a global deflationary shock on commodities from the Chinese collapse that outweighs strong economic growth on the FOREX market right now.

Posted by libertas @ 10:33 AM 10 Comments

Double top for US house prices or new boom?

Huffington Post: US Home Prices Reaching Near Peak - So What's the Problem?

The new FHFA, Federal Housing Finance Agency, House Price Index has been published with data through the end of July, 2015. Here's a chart to get the discussion going:

Posted by libertas @ 10:21 AM 0 Comments

One for the bears

Armstrong Economics: Real Estate and the Economic Confidence Model

The peak in real estate may have arrived. At the same time, this reflects the shift away from government bonds. Blackstone Group LP, the largest real estate fund to assemble, has come right on point. Blackstone raised $15.8 billion, creating the largest real estate fund in history. As we have warned, this reflects investment capital shifting into real estate. We may see a major high in real estate in many areas due to taxes and regulations. They are even looking at introducing property taxes in places within Europe where they did not exist before.

Posted by libertas @ 12:34 AM 14 Comments

Friday, October 2, 2015

A trend continues

This Is Money: One in five 20 to 34-year-olds has moved back in with their parents in the last year because they cannot afford to rent Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3256900/One-five-20-34-year-olds-moved-parents-year-afford-rent.html#ixzz3nRoi4oD0

There are many family homes with spare rooms. One factor of the housing "crisis" is that we will revert closer to third world countries where three or more generations live in the same house, plus folk renting out spare rooms, spare lofts, spare spaces under stairs, spare garages, sheds, green houses, tree houses, land for tents, and on, and on. This is how London will hit 12 million residents by 2030. Welcome to the new normal.

Posted by libertas @ 10:19 PM 4 Comments

When enough is far too much..

Telegraph: Property tycoon takes his own life after amassing debts of £5 million

He bought his first investment property in Yorkshire in 2000 and by 2003 had a portfolio of 84 buy-to-let properties across the county, generating £250,000 a year.....a doomed attempt to join a Romanian property scheme in 2007 left the family "virtually penniless".

Posted by hpwatcher @ 04:01 PM 3 Comments

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