Thursday, Sep 10, 2015

Mixed Messages

Grauniad: UK house prices for August 'through the roof' – Halifax

Halifax says house prices have shot up while Nationwide said that price growth was weak in August.
Reasons are lack of houses on the market, low mortgage rates etc. Well yes

Posted by cyril @ 12:42 PM (5824 views)
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10 Comments

1. libertas said...

A friend of mine has been flat hunting, and the market has been red hot in London, with every reasonably priced flat flying off the market within days, and that can only mean that they are under-priced for current market conditions. As Nadeem Walyat has stated, rising prices are now driving sentiment as people make more cash from their property than from working in many cases.

I full expect this bull market to continue until the mid 2020's, with a likely market crash in 2026, by which time the Tories will be in their third outright majority, with Labour having a slim chance of winning in 2030.

Thursday, September 10, 2015 09:32PM Report Comment
 

2. mister ed said...

@1 "as people make more cash from their property than from working in many cases..."

Usual Libby economics fail. Paper gains do not equal cash.

Almost as good as "a 3.5% increase in wages leads to a 10.5% increase in house prices".

Nice one. Another Libbyballs to add to the collection.

Thursday, September 10, 2015 10:01PM Report Comment
 

3. hpwatcher said...

A friend of mine has been flat hunting, and the market has been red hot in London, with every reasonably priced flat flying off the market within days, and that can only mean that they are under-priced for current market conditions.

Once again, classic Libby, lots of nonsense peppered with references to Nadeem Walyat - who is a renowned UK property bull.

Halifax is weighted towards the north, which has seem some rises due to starting from such a low base. Nationwide figures - very much flatter - are weighted towards the south.

I'm still seeing lots of reductions, lots of homes ''unexpectedly re-available''. I have also been keeping an eye on a certain area of North London, and I'm now seeing the occasional house at far more reasonable prices. There are still significant numbers at silly prices, but these are just sitting there.

Market is really beginning to slow.

Friday, September 11, 2015 07:12AM Report Comment
 

4. mombers said...

Good news! What can I spend my paper gain on? Move to a bigger house maybe. Oh buggery, that one's gone up by much more than my flat so not a chance... Good news for those with more than one house or who are downsizing.

Friday, September 11, 2015 08:56AM Report Comment
 

5. khards said...

Surely the low rates are priced in / filtered through by now?

Whats holding back supply is people simply can't afford to move at these prices and nobody wants to sell investments (20% of the market IMO) whilst prices are rising. 5% to 10% falls will bring out sellers in droves.

It's the boom before the bust, but I can;t see this lasting much longer simply because 0% rates and low mortgage rates have run their course.

I have noticed more exotic mortgage products have been slowly appearing over the last 6 months, so perhaps libby's projection is correct if a full return to subprime is allowed.

On the sub-prime, I think the lending to landlords is the subprime this time around simply because these loand are not regualted and attract higher returns for banks.

Friday, September 11, 2015 09:16AM Report Comment
 

6. hpwatcher said...

Good news! What can I spend my paper gain on? Move to a bigger house maybe. Oh buggery, that one's gone up by much more than my flat so not a chance... Good news for those with more than one house or who are downsizing.

What I find hilarious, is that of all the regulars on here who have bought houses, Libby is the only one trying to convince everyone he is a financial genius for having done so.

Time will tell whether that was the right decision, but at the moment, the UK economy is looking quite shaky.

Friday, September 11, 2015 10:25AM Report Comment
 

7. cyril said...

@6 ...and most of the regulars probably remember the last crash and are thinking the next one is long overdue.
However I didn't appreciate how unusual the events of the 1980s and 90s really were. The number of reposessions was a real killer and loads of peole just gave their keys back to the building society and then found they still owed thousands in arrears.
Thanks to the lrgesse of modern politicians the financial crash has been a picnic in comparison.

Friday, September 11, 2015 02:06PM Report Comment
 

8. This comment has been removed as it was found to be in breach of our Blog Policies.

 

9. reticent said...

@5 I think there's quite a lag, to be honest, and IRs only hit their zenith within the last 6-9 months.


@7 Could not agree more.

Monday, September 14, 2015 01:16PM Report Comment
 

10. phils said...

"Halifax is weighted towards the north, which has seem some rises due to starting from such a low base. Nationwide figures - very much flatter - are weighted towards the south".

Do they state this on their websites HP?
It does seem to make sense as my house in Liverpool has risen in value recently, although it is still worth less than 2007/8 even though it's in a nice suburban area.

Friday, September 18, 2015 06:22AM Report Comment
 

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