Sunday, Aug 23, 2015

Never again!

Reuters: Stocks post worst week in years on China fears

History is replete with examples of "never again!" Right now we seem to be almost circa 2007 again. One big institutional failure and a few misplaced bets and there is real trouble. I'll do Mr Carneys job for him now. "rates ain't rising this year, folks!"

Posted by brickormortis @ 04:57 AM (4840 views)
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6 Comments

1. Techieman said...

Well to my mind a fall has been on the cards for years. Actually stocks have been defying gravity. The rising wedge / Elliott wave ending diagional has been calling for a fall for quite some time.

I know someone long of the dax who told me " its in a range....everytime it gets to the top I sell and the bottim I buy". Trouble is prices are only range bound for so long before the coiled spring is unleashed. Due to the setup the bteakout was likely due to the downside. Yep I did tell her that but yhe response of "how much have you made in the last year"- see next para - shows you some people think they are more clever than they are. As ive always said everything works.... until it doesnt.

since the 2009 low I have been looking to sell on a retracement... but we have had new highs, with significant losses to my account. This has forced me to look at other methods. This time i believe its the START of the bear

Ive not been on hpc for sometime as I was being overly influenced by the understandable bearishness of the site, and by the fact I have bren overly busy effectively relearning how to trade.

More falls next week but soon after a substantial short covering rally which will pave the way for more falls likely into early next year.

Sunday, August 23, 2015 06:11AM Report Comment
 

2. cornishman said...

Hi techieman. Good to see you back!

Monday, August 24, 2015 05:01PM Report Comment
 

3. reticent said...

Welcome back Techie.

I know nothing about trading but that was largely my thinking and it is nice to hear someone as informed as yourself say something similar. Stockmarkets are still way overvalued. Some small corrections this year have not dented that. This doesn't seem like the start of a big crash (yet), just part of an ongoing and long overdue correction.

I base my reasoning almost entirely on the Buffet-indicator (total market cap to Gdp) that seems to get mentioned by people trying to sell investment advice but nevertheless makes enough intuitive sense to me to hold stock by (figuratively).

It's interesting to hear that that was the reason why you stopped posting here. Obviously, this place encourages people to time the housing market, something 99% of people in the market don't bother to do (and that itself is a good reason not to try and second-guess the market). However, it never occurred to me that all the gloom would bear down on people's investment decisions in other asset classes. Although I must admit that visiting this site has made me overly bearish about the economy as a whole.

Anyway, I've always find your posts interesting, if a little bewildering to someone who doesn't know a lot about the theories/experience you base your reasoning on. Good to have you back.

Monday, August 24, 2015 06:31PM Report Comment
 

4. quiet guy said...

@Techieman

Good to see you back! I hope you'll post some more of your stuff in the future.

Regarding bearishness, I've finally taken the plunge and bought a place so maybe the HPC crash is finally on! (wouldn't surprise me)

Apart from some cash buyers being a bit skint, I'm not sure how a stock market correction will impact the property market. Could scared money actually flow into property!?

Monday, August 24, 2015 07:45PM Report Comment
 

5. pete green said...

welcome back techie always appreciate your technical view - but will this create the great unraveling of debt in the UK? - I am unsure but we are in for and interesting September and October to be sure

Monday, August 24, 2015 10:36PM Report Comment
 

6. jack c said...

is that the real techieman ? or a new Techieman (with a capital T)

Tuesday, August 25, 2015 08:01AM Report Comment
 

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