August 2015 Archive

Sunday, August 30, 2015

The UK Housing Market and Out of Control Immigration

Market Oracle: UK Immigration Crisis Hits New Record, Trending Towards Becoming a Catastrophe

Nothing illustrates the consequences of continuing out of control immigration more than its impact on the UK housing market, where Conservative election promises to build 200,000 homes per year will prove totally worthless in wake of the immigration Tsunami against which housing building cannot even keep pace with existing demand let alone deal with new demand, especially when one considers that the UK population is already growing naturally by about 300,000 per year which means that even if the promised 200,000 homes were built, then it will not be enough to keep pace with population increasing by 600,000 per year, let alone that far fewer homes will probably be built at the rate of approx 140,000 per year. 1.25 million properties may be required to just to stand still.

Posted by libertas @ 05:21 AM 22 Comments

Saturday, August 29, 2015

Notes on a Micro Bubble

Guardian: Towns the UK property boom forgot: 'We sold at a £410,000 loss'

Textbook bubble story: "this was autumn 2007, and this was Northern Ireland. For a brief moment in time a province that was a byword for violence transformed itself into the world’s most sizzling property market. Builders who were knocking out small estates of semis initially priced at £120,000 were selling them for £200,000 on completion six months later. Investors from the Celtic Tiger south were driving north and snapping up anything they could lay their hands on. Banks were falling over themselves to lend."

Posted by quiet guy @ 09:54 AM 2 Comments

Enfield now has the second fastest house prices in the uk

Land registry Aug stats: I told you so

At 13.9% it is now second fastest growing, up from third last month, just pinched to the top spot by Hillingdon at 14.8%

Posted by libertas @ 12:58 AM 24 Comments

Friday, August 28, 2015

Drop in transactions is apparently good news for buyers

BBC News: Property sales fall by 15% as market cools, says Land Registry

It would be interesting to see this broken down into BTL, cash buyers, (ideally foreign buyers) etc. In the aftermath of the crash, they said a lack of transactions was bad news for buyers, which made sense. There was not much stock (no forced sellers) and that held prices up. Now, a lack of transactions is supposedly good news, but surely that could just as easily be that people aren't moving (i.e. selling). Anyway, it's from the LR, so old news but it's interesting to hear them say the market is cooling.

Posted by reticent @ 11:02 AM 5 Comments

Wednesday, August 26, 2015

"Savvy" homeowners lock in fixed rates before rates fail to rise

This Is Money: Homeowners rush to remortgage amid fears of a rate rise as home loan approvals jump to 17-month high

So, Carney's amusement arcade in the home owner carnival is rolling them up to commit to expensive fixed rate mortgages, making them feel "savvy" whilst the banksters get off rotten rich. Sealing in necessarily expensive fixed term mortgages. Meanwhile, in the real world, deflation is setting in with oil below $40, China cratering and price indexes along with interest rates set to turn negative. Hell would freeze over before BOE raises rates until inflation gets above 1.5%. We have a long way to go.

Posted by libertas @ 10:56 PM 13 Comments

Just like Tokyo 1989

The Wall Street Journal: Emerging Market Turbulence to Hit Luxury London Property

They said it would go up forever and would never end. Right? Oil states - oil crash - even Saudi having to issue bonds to cover budget short-fall Russia - sanctions & oil crash - oligarchs no longer in evidence around London China - corruption crack-down (has been going for a while) OECD - tax-haven crack-down UK - offshore-owned properties now taxed with beneficial owners identified In general - dawning realisation that public officials on public-sector salaries around the world can't also have hundreds of millions of clean money And now the final shoe to drop: China - stock market collapse; but if you can't sell your stocks, you have to sell something else to cover your margin call. Like that luxury London property you bought in the last year or two.

Posted by sneaker @ 04:34 PM 15 Comments

Monday, August 24, 2015

We're doomed!

BTTL is sooooo topas

Introducer Today: Buy to Letters selling up to escape tax clampdown

Taxes up. What more needs to be said?

Posted by killer bunny @ 09:28 AM 7 Comments

Sunday, August 23, 2015

Never again!

Reuters: Stocks post worst week in years on China fears

History is replete with examples of "never again!" Right now we seem to be almost circa 2007 again. One big institutional failure and a few misplaced bets and there is real trouble. I'll do Mr Carneys job for him now. "rates ain't rising this year, folks!"

Posted by brickormortis @ 04:57 AM 6 Comments

Saturday, August 22, 2015

Death of Buy To Let - Really?

Telegraph: Death of Buy To Let: Landlords wake up to Osborne's 150pc tax

The Chancellor's complex new tax - which will see some buy-to-let investors paying more than 100pc of their profits in tax - is already prompting some landlords to sell

Posted by cornishman @ 11:39 AM 20 Comments

The sharpest decline since start of 2012, government figures show

Guardian: New home builds fall 14% in three months despite election pledge

The 14% drop in housing starts to 33,280 in the period from April to June is the biggest decline since the first three months of 2012, according to seasonally adjusted government data. Starts are 6% lower year on year. During the general election campaign, David Cameron pledged that 200,000 homes would be built every year by 2017, as well as 200,000 starter homes by the end of the parliament.

Posted by debtserf @ 11:28 AM 1 Comments

Sorry, try this. A trip down memory lane. From 1991.

Youtube: IMF & World Bank are weapons of war , by John Pilger

this is a 21 minutes montage of an original 52 minutes special report by John Pilger that you can find if you google for WAR BY OTHER MEANS editing and upload done January 3rd 2011 original program dated late 1991

Posted by novice pete @ 12:54 AM 1 Comments

A trip down memory lane. From 1991.

Youtube: IMF & World Bank are weapons of war , by John Pilger

this is a 21 minutes montage of an original 52 minutes special report by John Pilger that you can find if you google for WAR BY OTHER MEANS editing and upload done January 3rd 2011 original program dated late 1991

Posted by novice pete @ 12:49 AM 0 Comments

Thursday, August 20, 2015

Difference in house prices in different regions of the UK highlighted

Manchester Evening News: House-price gap: You can buy FOUR detached houses in Manchester for the price of ONE in London

Manchester Evening News highlights the difference in house prices across the UK. You can buy 4 in Manchester for the price of 1 in London!

Posted by olly stabler @ 11:59 AM 3 Comments

Wednesday, August 19, 2015

What goes up...

Independent: Asian investors start to desert London property market due to strong pound

the legions of foreign investors credited - and blamed in equal measure - for driving the decade-long luxury property boom may finally be getting cold feet.

Posted by debtserf @ 08:58 AM 15 Comments

Sunday, August 16, 2015

'Solid recovery' means interest rates WILL rise

Telegraph: Interest rates must rise sooner rather than later

The Bank of England could damage Britain's recovery if officials wait too long before starting to raise interest rates, one of its policymakers has warned.

Posted by hpwatcher @ 09:38 PM 21 Comments

Weak oil prices and the strength of the pound are expected to have kept inflation flat in the year

Telegraph: 'No-flation’ lowers the prospect of Bank of England interest rate rise

Britain came within touching distance of deflation again in July, increasing the likelihood that the Bank of England will postpone its first rate rise in more than eight years. (Read between the line, and given that eight years of 0.5% interest rates is not enough to get about 0% inflation, clearly, a rate cut is the only thing that will possibly cause inflation to rise). British Gas meanwhile has decided to slash tariffs 5%, with others expected to follow suit, so deflation should accelerate through the Autumn, noting that this co-incides with the end of the US driving season, so gas prices should also fall more than most anticipate.

Posted by libertas @ 05:19 PM 2 Comments

Saturday, August 15, 2015

The New Dickensian Normal

RT: 55 people found crammed into 3 East London properties in ‘terrible’ conditions

Furthermore, some tenants may be forced to overcrowd properties because of the booming housing crisis in Britain. Occupy London campaigner David Dewhurt told RT there will “continue to be cases like this” because the government “needs to keep property prices high to sustain the finance sector that funds the Conservative Party.” The figures come after research by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) revealed there has been a surge in ‘overcrowded’ homes in Britain. Over 3 million people now live in a household with at least five other individuals.

Posted by debtserf @ 11:21 PM 7 Comments

Wednesday, August 12, 2015

This screams DEFLATION and RATE CUTS

Telegraph: Markets rocked as China's renminbi tumbles to four-year low

Given our dependence on Chinese imports, this devaluation WILL exacerbate DEFLATION. With this happening now alongside collapsing commodity prices, both being part of the same trend, we should see minus 2% deflation before we see plus 2% inflation. UK Govt would be forced to cut rates, igniting economic growth and house prices here. Expect panic from Carney. Remember, BOE affects but does not control global capital flows, and most of Carney's speeches are designed to maintain the illusion that the central bank is in control, when in reality it is just another market participant. They were behind the curve in 2008 and panic cut rates. They will be behind the curve in 2015, when they plunge into negative rates.

Posted by libertas @ 05:45 PM 40 Comments

Frankly, a rate cut is more likely than a rate rise

Telegraph: Interest rates might rise, but here are five reasons why you DON'T need to fix your mortgage

"Rates are on the up - or so we're told - but there are several excellent reasons why homeowners shouldn't rush just yet to fix their mortgage rates"

Posted by libertas @ 01:13 PM 13 Comments

Saturday, August 8, 2015

Thoughts on this please

Thisismoney: Expected wage gains of 2.8% to fuel debate on when to raise interest rates Read more: Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on

Wages grew by 2.8 per cent in the second quarter compared with the same period last year as the long-awaited recovery in earnings continued, official figures are expected to show on Wednesday. The strong wage growth when inflation is zero will fuel the fierce debate over when interest rates should start to rise from their historic lows. The Bank of England held the base rate steady last week and issued analysis widely seen as making an early rise less likely. But continuing above-inflation pay rises will provide ammunition to those economists calling for rates to head up sooner rather than later. The Resolution Foundation expects pay to have gone up by between 2.7 and 2.8 per cent, broadly in line with a figure of 2.8 per cent published in May.

Posted by khards @ 11:40 PM 8 Comments

Welcome regulations?

Guardian: Rogue landlords and letting agents to get stiffer fines in rental market shakeup

One aspect of the plans – the eviction of immigrants living illegally in Britain – attracted the most headlines, but other proposals suggest that the government is considering a transformation of the private rental market.

Posted by debtserf @ 02:21 PM 0 Comments

Further squeeze on buy to let

Dailymail: Now buy to let borrowers face grilling

The writing seems to be on the wall...this will disaster for some but soon ftbs will be Buying liquidated portfolios at massive reductions....who will then rent all the btlets?..spiral Downwards likely.seems to admit a speculative bubble

Posted by taffee @ 01:38 PM 1 Comments

Wednesday, August 5, 2015

Most houses now have a much higher socio-economic status than the people who want to live in them.

Daily Mash: High-earning houses ban humans from living in them

“Thanks to the housing bubble I earn more in a year than a dentist, so I can easily pay all the bills myself without a bunch of carbon-based organisms doing disgusting things in my toilet.

Posted by debtserf @ 11:29 PM 1 Comments

The familiar aftermath of London’s regenerative steamroller

Guardian: Developers exploit flawed planning system to minimise affordable housing

In the last decade, London has lost 8,000 social-rented homes. Under the Tory-led coalition, the amount of affordable housing delivered across the country fell by a third – from 53,000 homes completed in 2010 to 36,000 in 2014. Much of the reason lies hidden in these developers’ viability assessments and the dark arts of accounting, which have become all-powerful tools in the way our cities are being shaped.

Posted by debtserf @ 11:25 PM 5 Comments

Tuesday, August 4, 2015

Does the baby boomer generation now enjoy an unfair level of property wealth?

Guardian: Homeownership: the generation that had it so good

“People can’t save for a deposit so they are forced to rent, but rents are so high they can’t ever afford to save. Rich property investors are simply rubbing their hands with glee.”

Posted by debtserf @ 11:47 AM 8 Comments

Housing 'investment' in the US

Casey Daily Dispatch: The answer to the biggest riddle in the markets right now

Signs of a housing recovery are everywhere… However, American homeownership has crashed… You might be wondering how this is possible…

Posted by cornishman @ 07:11 AM 3 Comments

Sunday, August 2, 2015

You can too!

Telegraph: I own most of my street

Unusually, Mr Windsor did not remortgage his existing properties in order to buy subsequent ones. He saved the required deposits while working so that he wasn’t heavily leveraged. What are you wIting for - I hear that Enfield is ripe for the plucking.

Posted by debtserf @ 10:02 AM 10 Comments

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