Friday, May 08, 2015

Nadeem is now confident enough to predict the next election

Nadeem Walyat - Market Oracle: UK House Prices Correctly Forecast / Predicted Conservative Election Win 2015

Nadeem correctly projected that Tories would win as a result of house prices rising. He projects a significant further rise for the next five years and predicts a stronger Tory vote next election. An early election may be held to increase Tory seats interim if the economy continues to improve. From my own predictions, given that major crashes happen every 18 to 20yrs, the next house price crash is scheduled around about 2026 to 2028. That should give us at least two further Tory administrations and astronomical house prices. Of particular interest to me, Crossrail2 is the Tory manifesto, and so long as they retain power until 2020, it looks like a dead cert. Any house price purchase along this line will yield well as with HS2 destinations. In the meantime, happy renting and adios.

Posted by libertas @ 10:06 PM (3222 views)
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1. icarus said...

This guy reads like a horse-race tipster of the old, simplistic, 'I gotta horse' school.

No mention here of the fact that Labour, SNP and UKIP all increased their vote, compared with 2010, more than the Tories increased theirs. So it was the electoral system, not public opinion based on house prices or anything else, which produced this result.

Friday, May 8, 2015 10:48PM Report Comment

2. Anned said...

German Bonds - On the Monthly Level, May was the main target for a Directional Change. It appears that the long-end has peaked in general and any reaction rally that could unfold as a flight to quality temporarily after the summer months will be predominately confined to the shot-end of the curve. This is further confirming that we are headed into a serious Sovereign Debt Crisis 2015-2020 with the bulk of the move confined to 2015-2017.

Saturday, May 9, 2015 05:59AM Report Comment

3. libertas said...

First past the post DOES NOT EXIST without tactical voting.

Are you saying that the voting system exists without voters? Only in such a scenario could your statement be correct.

And for all the whinging by UKIP, first past the post let them get second place in over 100 constituencies. First past the post ensures that only those parties with a sound local support get in. You have to work your local area. That is a good thing. Also, you get to vote out individuals unlike in proportional representation, where for example, nobody could have voted out Ed Balls due to him sucking up to the leadership rather than the electorate.

Saturday, May 9, 2015 08:11AM Report Comment

4. icarus said...

In London, with the highest house price rises, Labour gained 7 seats compared with 2010, Conservatives lost 1.

Saturday, May 9, 2015 08:53AM Report Comment

5. cyril said...

what a load of crap

Saturday, May 9, 2015 03:19PM Report Comment

6. libertas said...

Well, Nadeem got it 100% right, you guys get it all wrong, all the time, so am I surprised that you pooh pooh him?

Sunday, May 10, 2015 01:46AM Report Comment

7. icarus said...

My point @ 1 & 3 is that he hasn't shown a correlation between a rise in house prices and a rise in the Tory vote in the 2010-15 period. And some might even point to the big drop in the Coalition vote.

Sunday, May 10, 2015 09:46AM Report Comment

8. reticent said...

I predict that due to rising house prices and just a general warm gooey feeling about the economy radiating throughout the country, ambient temperatures will be higher than they are today.

Tuesday, May 12, 2015 03:11PM Report Comment

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