May 2015 Archive

Saturday, May 30, 2015

Capital Gains Tax overhaul

Telegraph: Capital gains tax on homes: it's only a matter of time

Comment: there will be a capital gains tax overhaul, and the 100pc tax relief on main homes will go - at least for some We've always really been a policy change away from fixing this mess

Posted by tom101 @ 12:00 PM 11 Comments

It is a disaster

Guardian: Housing policy is a disaster

Orr gets the analysis right but doesn't really offer a solution. Perhaps there isn't one?

Posted by chrisch @ 10:12 AM 0 Comments

Friday, May 29, 2015

Property boom ahead for North East and East London

The Guardian: Clean, reliable and integrated: all change for neglected rail services in London

Up until now, nothing existed between the Picadilly and Central Lines. However, with TFL taking over commuter lines from Liverpool Street this Sunday, it is all change. London is so large, that most investors and newbies know it by the tube map. Expect places north of Hackney to act as a pressure valve now. For example, a two bed home will set you back £850k in Stoke Newington, but you can get the same size property, possibly with need for updating, at just over £250k in Edmonton. For less than a 1 bed flat in Hackney. With Hackney'ies aware of what London Overground did to their patch, folk will not hold back from investing in these new hinterlands, particularly those now priced out of Hackney. Areas towards Chingford will also soar, whilst there should be steady rises along Crossrail.

Posted by libertas @ 09:54 PM 16 Comments

Wednesday, May 27, 2015

Shelter trying to frame a longstanding issue in a new light

Guardian: Landlords enjoy £14bn tax breaks as figures reveal buy-to-let expansion

'“To discriminate against landlords and remove these reliefs, which are offered to other businesses, would cut a swath through their profitability calculations and prompt many to sell up and invest elsewhere. That would mean even higher rents for those forced to chase after a shrinking pool of rented housing,” he warned.' Who does this idiot think the houses would be sold to, if not the wealthiest tenants, whose removal from the pool of people looking for flats to rent would surely push demand down by as much as supply, in quantity terms, and more so in price terms, since wealthy people are prepared to spend more on rent? I'm really sick of this nonsense going unchallenged in the press.

Posted by reticent @ 10:53 AM 14 Comments

Expected spike after election

Telegraph: London asking prices jump 17pc after the election

Once this pent-up demand is over, the inevitable decline will continue. Well, you didn't think you were going to have a never-ending boom did you?

Posted by hpwatcher @ 09:36 AM 5 Comments

Tuesday, May 26, 2015

A family or a house - your choice

Torygraph: Pregnant women 'unfairly' denied mortgages over child costs

It is sensible for banks to look at mortgagees costs but under the UK's tax system whereby single income households are taxed at a much higher rate than dual income ones, more and more couples have to choose between having children or ever owning a home. The only way to escape single income punitive rates is to become a contractor under a limited company and distribute dividends to the non-working spouse, but this just about rules you out for a mortgage anyway. Quite a few people who I worked with have done this, but they all have lots of home equity and/or long fixed rates so can sit and chomp down the mortgage. After a few years of contracting banks will look at you again, but with caution as they don't have a permanent pay cheque to trouser.

Posted by mombers @ 02:48 PM 2 Comments

Monday, May 25, 2015

Positive Duration Dependence

Telegraph: HSBC fears world recession with no lifeboats left

It's pretty clear that this blog has attracted doomers (myself included) who have been too negative in their outlook but some financial commentators are a bit worried: "Stephen King from HSCB warns that the global authorities have alarmingly few tools to combat the next crunch, given that interest rates are already zero across most of the developed world, debts levels are at or near record highs, and there is little scope for fiscal stimulus. 'The world economy is sailing across the ocean without any lifeboats to use in case of emergency,' he said." Perhaps we'll be fine but further financial stimulus could be tricky.

Posted by quiet guy @ 12:01 AM 6 Comments

Friday, May 22, 2015

Bbubbles are social-psychological phenomena, so are naturally difficult to control.

Guardian: Speculative bubbles dont just pop

A speculative bubble is a situation in which news of price increases spurs investor enthusiasm, which spreads by psychological contagion from person to person, in the process amplifying stories that might justify the price increase." This attracts "a larger and larger class of investors, who, despite doubts about the real value of the investment, are drawn to it partly through envy of others' successes and partly through a gambler's excitement."

Posted by debtserf @ 10:09 AM 7 Comments

Thursday, May 21, 2015

Just a shortage of affordable houses

MoneyWeek: The UK doesnt have a housing shortage

That there is a chronic shortage of housing in this country has become a sacred shibboleth. Politicians make solemn pledges to build 200,000 more homes by some vague future date to offset this supposed shortage. But the market is still way off the volumes of previous decades. Is there really a shortage of property in this country, and is this the main factor in ever increasing prices? Merryn doesnt seem to think so.

Posted by debtserf @ 12:46 PM 15 Comments

Tristram Hunt ducks out of leadership race after discovering he's a Tory

Thedailymash: Tristram Hunt ducks out of leadership race after discovering he's a Tory

"TRISTRAM Hunt will not stand in the Labour leadership contest after finding out he was actually a Conservative all along."

Posted by doomwatch @ 12:04 PM 1 Comments

Tuesday, May 19, 2015

Steve Keen debunks naive austerity economics of Lab, Lib and Con

Every Investor: Steve Keen criticises naïve austerity economics

If the government is to run a surplus to pay down national debt, it does so by reducing private sector savings. So a permanent surplus policy involves economic contraction or increasing private debt (which eventually can't be sustained). Simples, with a minor caveat about velocity of circulation. The only thing I'd take issue with is his claim that increasing public sector deficit is expansionary - it depends how the finance is raised, and in the UK it's generally through the bond market, and such that no new credit is created.

Posted by nickb @ 06:08 PM 5 Comments

UK now in deflation - apart from average house prices

FT: UK slips into deflation as prices fall 0.1%

The price level has fallen, for the first time since ...? A blip into that territory in 2008 and before that the 1930s great depression. There is good deflation and bad deflation. The difference is not really explained, but here in the UK it is believed to be good deflation. Is good deflation that with a Union Jack on it, I wonder? To read the article, type the source title into google.

Posted by nickb @ 05:17 PM 9 Comments

Monday, May 18, 2015

Thought house prices could only ever go up

BBC: China's new home prices fall for eighth month

The price of new homes in China fell for the eighth consecutive month in April, showing the property sector continues to be a major drag on the world's second-largest economy. The average price in China's 70 major cities fell 6.1% from a year ago - the same rate of decline as in March. A large inventory of unsold homes is weighing on the once red-hot market. The property sector accounts for about 20% of China's economy, according to economists.

Posted by mark @ 11:46 AM 7 Comments

Bizarre news

CNN: Miami gets a taxpayer-funded homeless poop map

A fight over Miami's homeless population and public restrooms has resulted in a taxpayer-funded poop map.

Posted by mark @ 09:58 AM 0 Comments

Friday, May 15, 2015

No figures for renters and no mention of the growing liability that anyone wanting to move up faces.

Torygraph: Families 20 per cent richer than last year

"House price hikes have been a big factor behind this, with a 9% rise in average property values last year, according to the report, which found 39% of total household wealth is now held in bricks and mortar" Anyone whose next move is to a more expensive house has been negatively affected by rising house prices. My family has seen our hopes of ever 'trading up' from a flat to a house disintegrate as our paper gain on our flat is wiped out and then some by the bigger increase in price of anything nicer than it. And then renters... unless you have a fat wad of other assets, you're falling even further behind than someone on the bottom 99% of the mythical 'ladder'

Posted by mombers @ 12:09 PM 6 Comments

Thursday, May 14, 2015

Same council routinely rejects planning for greenbelt

Bbc: East Cheshire 'needs 36,000 homes by 2030'

Council leader Michael Jones said he cannot rule out using green belt land. The Conservative leader Mr Jones said green belt was "sacrosanct" but admitted some of it could be allocated for building.

Posted by mark @ 01:18 PM 0 Comments

Better invest in Icebergs

Money CNN: The global economy has a 'titanic problem'

King says that if China starts to see negative economic growth, the global economy would go bonkers.

Posted by mark @ 11:08 AM 2 Comments

Property is bubble 1 ready to pop

MoneyWeek: Three bubbles that are ready to pop

Cheap money, artificial credit, and zero interest policies have created all sorts of bubbles since 2008. Here are three that are ready to pop.

Posted by andrew.williams @ 09:41 AM 20 Comments

Some govt. propaganda to start you day

BBC: A guide for first-time buyers as house prices 'rise again'

Help to Buy ISAs should be available from autumn 2015 (ministers still need to finalise the details with industry) and will stay open to first-time buyers for four years. Help to Buy Equity Loan Announced in October 2013, this scheme was aimed at providing nearly £10 billion for almost 200,000 home buyers. hared ownership schemes are provided through housing associations. People buy a share of their home (25% to 75% of the home's value) and pay rent on the remaining share. Help to buy: Mortgage guarantee scheme

Posted by khards @ 09:33 AM 0 Comments

All about the Red and Blue Wings of the Homeownerist party

BBC: Could a UK politician ever vow to bring down house prices?

Someone else has had the same thought someone here had years ago. I remember that in the same thread a home owner (with the emphasis being on owner as opposed to mortgagee) saying that they would be de be pleased if prices dropped 50% because then they could afford to move and get a decent one. I'm now in a similar position myself hence the continued interest in this subject.

Posted by tenyearstogetmymoneyback @ 07:43 AM 5 Comments

Wednesday, May 13, 2015

So what can be done to prevent the unearned benefits of landownership being concentrated further?

Torygraph: Owning a home is falling out of fashion around the world

"The lesson is we should try to intervene as little as possible in the housing market, and let consumers decide the right balance between owning and renting" Surely intervening less in the housing market means: *No more free public services: policing, fire brigade all charged for at their value, i.e. land rent *No planning laws - you can do what you like with your property but can't obstruct others More likely all talk and no action, just deflect the issue

Posted by mombers @ 04:03 PM 3 Comments

Monday, May 11, 2015

And so it begins....

Independent: House price boom to follow Tory victory

Estate agents predict "bun fight" over London Prime. Well they would wouldn't they?

Posted by chrisch @ 05:12 PM 20 Comments

House Price Crash 2019?

Share The Rents: Osborne’s Legacy: The Ladder of Despair

"George Osborne is selling the Conservative Party as saviour of the British economy. And yet, his swansong as Chancellor of the Exchequer was a catalogue of disasters that smooth the way for the Crash of 2019."

Posted by pete green @ 12:49 PM 3 Comments

Only £27.500 per building plot

Dailymail: Farmer turns down £275MILLION to sell his land for housing

Just shows the real value of land for building plots, £275 million = £27,500 per plot

Posted by mark @ 09:09 AM 6 Comments

Sunday, May 10, 2015

The people we love to hate...

Independent: Letting agents fined for collusion on fees

Welcome to another five years of reality for generation rent.

Posted by chrisch @ 09:46 AM 2 Comments

Saturday, May 9, 2015

Post-Election Business as Usual

Notayesmanseconomics's Blog: The twin economic challenges facing the UK post-election are the trade deficit and house prices

"With the annual rate of earnings growth being 1.3% in February I think we can say that house prices are not being driven by wage growth? We await what house price friendly moves the new government will add to its existing portfolio but is there much else left other than trying to push mortgage rates even lower? This of course returns us to my view on the likely next move in UK Base Rates being down."

Posted by quiet guy @ 08:28 PM 0 Comments

Friday, May 8, 2015

Not just houses, Britain is full steam ahead

Planning Magazine: Planning applications for factories double in 2014

As stated in the previous post, we are at the beginning of a boom that will last until 2026-2028. Any recession / depression commencing then will likely be over 2030 to 2032, but we will have Crossrail 2, HS2 and a new runway somewhere by then along with a vastly altered economy with probably 70 to 80 million residents, or maybe far more if we remain strong alongside a weak EU with a porous border. Frankly, if you do not own the roof under your head in the next year or two, you will have to wait for inheritance, but there are always shoe boxes available for those who will make a compromise, and yet that is the problem with whinging renters. They refuse to compromise on size, quality and location, whereas first time buyers make that sacrifice that they seek to resolve in their second home.

Posted by libertas @ 10:41 PM 21 Comments

Nadeem is now confident enough to predict the next election

Nadeem Walyat - Market Oracle: UK House Prices Correctly Forecast / Predicted Conservative Election Win 2015

Nadeem correctly projected that Tories would win as a result of house prices rising. He projects a significant further rise for the next five years and predicts a stronger Tory vote next election. An early election may be held to increase Tory seats interim if the economy continues to improve. From my own predictions, given that major crashes happen every 18 to 20yrs, the next house price crash is scheduled around about 2026 to 2028. That should give us at least two further Tory administrations and astronomical house prices. Of particular interest to me, Crossrail2 is the Tory manifesto, and so long as they retain power until 2020, it looks like a dead cert. Any house price purchase along this line will yield well as with HS2 destinations. In the meantime, happy renting and adios.

Posted by libertas @ 10:06 PM 8 Comments

Thursday, May 7, 2015

Panic on the streets of London

Torygraph: Panic selling and gazundering hits the luxury homes market in London

The torygraph is in fine form today "Wealthy homeowners in central London have finally resorted to slashing asking prices to offload their property, fearful of further price falls should Britain end up with a Labour-led government."

Posted by pete green @ 06:47 PM 2 Comments


Why is there no referendum on increases in income tax/VAT/NI receipts going up by more than 2%?

BBC: Bedfordshire PCC council tax referendum to go ahead

"A referendum on council tax increase in Bedfordshire which would help fund more police officers is to go ahead." If all local services had to be paid for by council tax instead of handouts from central government, people would have to think long and hard about how much government they want. Instead, we have this ridiculous situation where working people and businesses get their taxes jacked up to fund a council tax cut. Nobody gains unless they are very low income in a very expensive house

Posted by mombers @ 11:16 AM 1 Comments

Wednesday, May 6, 2015


Twittster: Been some terrific defacements during this election campaign

It's almost like the space was left in the middle of the sign. LOL.

Posted by doomwatch @ 03:20 PM 0 Comments

Is the bond bubble finally bursting?

Bloomberg: Bonds Extend Global Rout as Stocks Drop With Dollar; Oil Climbs

Britain’s headline borrowing costs have hit their highest level of 2015. UK 10-year gilt yields are now at 2%. Yields on 10-year German bunds have risen for a seventh day. Is the bond boil about to be lanced - or will they fire up the printing presses once again?

Posted by countingthedays @ 09:32 AM 2 Comments

Tuesday, May 5, 2015

Are the Greens bonkers on migration?

Grauniad: Ed Miliband wants to control immigration. Let’s look at the myths behind this message

Natalie Bennett argues that migration is being blamed for problems that originate in government failure, against further curbs on migration and against some of the more controversial measures currently in place.

Posted by nickb @ 04:51 PM 16 Comments

London market is slowing down fast

Money Week: London house prices could be facing some heavy weather

London’s rip-roaring property market is starting to stutter. And things could get much worse for London house prices after the election.

Posted by andrew.williams @ 03:35 PM 2 Comments

Things will only get worse

LSE: Deep-rooted vested interests are to blame for our housing crisis

the planning system does not allow the supply of homes to rise no matter how high prices rise, which essentially suggests that demand-focused policies proposed by the various parties are attacking symptoms but not causes of the problem. For instance, the Help-to-Buy scheme already mentioned effectively stimulates demand and, since supply is so severely constrained, simply pushes up prices without stimulating construction, exactly as predicted when the policy was first announced. So rather than help, it has effectively priced out young would-be-buyers from the market so that Hinder-to-Buy would have been a more appropriate name for the policy. And it’s not alone in doing more harm than good.

Posted by debtserf @ 01:45 PM 7 Comments

Leverage for property like 2008

Financial times: Leverage for property rises sharply

Amazing that it appears we are doing the same things that led to the credit crunch but this Time rates are near zero and we have money printing...what could go wrong?.appears to Be a free article from ft

Posted by taffee @ 07:47 AM 1 Comments

"This is all ending."

Bill Gross, the bond king (Janus Capital Group): A Sense of an Ending

A “sense of an ending” has been frequently mentioned in recent months when applied to asset markets and the great Bull Run that began in 1981. [...] Many prominent investment managers have been sounding similar alarms, some, perhaps a little too soon as with my Investment Outlooks of a few years past titled, “Man in the Mirror”, “Credit Supernova” and others. But now, successful, neither perma-bearish nor perma-bullish managers have spoken to a “sense of an ending” as well. Stanley Druckenmiller, George Soros, Ray Dalio, Jeremy Grantham, among others warn investors that our 35 year investment supercycle may be exhausted. [...] It will not come again for any of us; unrest lies ahead and low asset returns. Perhaps great unrest, if there is a bubble popping

Posted by sneaker @ 07:26 AM 5 Comments

Suddenly that GBP140m apartment doesn't look too clever

The Times: Russians lead cash exodus from Britain

Actually it looks downright insane: "Investors have withdrawn $356 billion from Britain over the past 15 months amid mounting concerns about the domestic political climate and as Russian money has moved abroad after sanctions were imposed [...]"

Posted by sneaker @ 07:13 AM 2 Comments

House unaffordable to those who cannot do maths

This is Money: First-time buyers need to earn £41k - or £77k in London - leaving homes unaffordable in every region of the UK

"To buy this property with a mortgage at 4.5 times salary, a purchaser would need to earn £40,533." "The current media annual wage for first-time buyers across the UK is just over half that figure, at £22,044." Well DUH, there are not enough properties for every individual to live alone, and both partners can get a mortgage on equal terms so, OBVIOUSLY, this value is SUSTAINABLE given that most first time buyers are COUPLES, with most singles relying on shared ownership or tiny studios, but what is wrong with that? It is this level of economic and mathematical illiteracy that keeps first time buyers away from property, handing houses to BTL investors on a platter along with the future of our youth.

Posted by libertas @ 02:56 AM 15 Comments

Saturday, May 2, 2015

+5.8% y-o-y but -0.8% m-o-m

Land Registry: March Market Trend Data

month old but reliable data shows horrendous 6% average national price increase, but encouraging -1% m-o-m fall since Feb. Large m-o-m falls in the NE but prices still rose between Feb and March in the SE. If only a bank or two would collapse now...

Posted by nickb @ 03:55 PM 10 Comments

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