Thursday, February 5, 2015

Unexpectedly?

UK house prices jump unexpectedly in January - Halifax

Halifax said that house prices rose by 2.0 percent in January, up from a 1.1 percent increase in December and far outstripping the 0.1 percent average increase forecast in a Reuters poll.

Posted by cornishman @ 09:04 AM (5612 views)
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18 thoughts on “Unexpectedly?

  • Is it really unexpected, with HSBC now offering sub 1% loans, LTV going through the roof and capital fleeing the Eurozone?! With all these trends accelerating is anybody really surprised?

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  • Posted it specially for you, libby.

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  • trebles all round

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  • Asking prices presumably?

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  • Capital fleeing the eurozone? But what about those cheap (in £) Spanish villas and the belief that eurozone QE could push up house prices there? Won’t property speculation go from here to there?

    And what about the argument that the cheap price of loans is due in part to slack demand for them?

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  • The UK farce continues.

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  • I have to be bullish for at least Q1 and Q2 this year, probably Q3 as well

    Remember from April people will be able to put their pensions into BTL at the drop of a hat. This Government will stop at nothing to inflate house prices.

    Purchasers in Q1 will be front-running that trend, purchasers in Q2 and Q3 will be that trend. After that a retrace at a minimum if not other problems (sovereign debt crisis anyone?) causing a correction/crash.

    Of course it is totally wrong for the Government to allow pensions to be used in this way. If people want to buy BTL then they can save their own money to do so outwith the tax advantages of a pension. Imagine the people in their 70s and 80s who have BTLs instead of traditional annuities; when the BTL boiler needs replacing or they have a problem tenant then they will need a hand-out from the state… so the younger renter worker person has to subsidise (through taxation) the trend which is pricing them out of housing.

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  • Icarus. It matters not that they are cheap. People only care about capital growth and preservation. They will all jump in soon as they think the Euro and Eurozone prices have stabalised. That is why governments are so scared of deflation.

    If UK mortgage rates fall closer to zero, frankly, if they stay where they are, today’s prices look basement bargain from a cost point of view. Yes, the risk is there, but not really for those with decent deposits who can lock in rates for 10yrs at favourable LTV.

    BOE attempts to reign in the market will just make it yet more lop-sided to the already haves, because they will get yet lower interest rates and higher LTV offers than before to compensate from sub-prime suffering.

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  • @7
    “They will all jump in soon as they think the Euro and Eurozone prices have stabalised.”

    First, crystal ball gazing to predict Heathrow being turned into a housing estate. Now, mass mind-reading.

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  • libertas – “It matters not that they are cheap. People only care about capital growth and preservation”. I did mention the possibility, or likelihood, of eurozone QE pushing up asset/house prices. Anyway, many want a house in a warm part of Europe to live in so price, irrespective of likely capital appreciation, does matter.

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  • If UK mortgage rates fall closer to zero, frankly, if they stay where they are, today’s prices look basement bargain from a cost point of view.

    They are nearly at zero now, Banks are going to have to charge *something* otherwise, what’s the point of taking the risk?

    Well, if it looks like a crack-up boom, and smells like a crack-up boom….

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  • Having said the above, it’s vital to remember that we are 3 months away from a general election, and if there is one thing that the Tories are going to do, it’s continue the narrative of economic recover via rising house prices till then.

    Once the election is over, things may start to look very, very different, with government subsidies being redirected to more essential services – to prevent strike action – when the MASSIVE cuts that have been planned begin to take effect. The scale of the cuts will be pretty big, and will likely be initiated with large scale tax increases i.e. mansion tax expanded to cover ALL homes. I see the hell being taxed out of UK Housing, it’s simply too good not to.
    A banking crisis – of some significant size – most likely to come from Greece, makes the picture all the more interesting. This is unlikely to lead to capital flows to the UK as money has already been used or diverted elsewhere.

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  • No, I can’t see ‘MASSIVE’ cuts. I see more money printing, either directly (let’s call that QE), or indirectly (let’s call that housing benefit, help to sell, pensioner bonds, etc., etc.). The can will be kicked down the road again (nothing to see here, move on…).
    The 1% will get richer and more powerful (if that’s possible), the oblivious ‘hardworking families’ will bury their heads in consumer tat, the others will leave (if they can) or simply live to feed the system.
    Oh, and then death, of course.

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  • “A banking crisis … is unlikely to lead to capital flows to the UK as money has already been used or diverted elsewhere.”

    And the precursor ito that is the energy crisis: the collapse of the oil price has stemmed the flow of funds into the creditist system. Default and deleverage is guaranteed.

    At some point those London safe deposit boxes may have to be liquidated.

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  • “Oh, and then death, of course”

    I hear Denmark have just implemented negative death rates, where they keep you in an zombified financial state while they suck every last speck of rent out of your overindebted undead carcass.

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  • No, I can’t see ‘MASSIVE’ cuts. I see more money printing, either directly (let’s call that QE), or indirectly (let’s call that housing benefit, help to sell, pensioner bonds, etc., etc.). The can will be kicked down the road again (nothing to see here, move on…).
    The 1% will get richer and more powerful (if that’s possible), the oblivious ‘hardworking families’ will bury their heads in consumer tat, the others will leave (if they can) or simply live to feed the system.
    Oh, and then death, of course.

    Not necessarily. If UK Government printed to pay welfare bills, confidence in Sterling would dry up pretty quick and you would likely have a massive run on Sterling. That would be extremely messy, and bad for the UK.

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  • Come on we need a house price crash I have been waiting for this for 15 years that’s 15 years living with the folks and I am now 40 my time is running out even if I can buy cash and I want to show my folks my house I don’t feel grown up living with folks it’s just my luck that If I buy now they would fall 50% that’s physical money I could have kept to myself if cash was used I’m not a btl,er I’m a normal working class person who has saved up money by doing overtime that’s 95 hours a week for 8 years then 70 hours a week for 10 years I wished that the government would stop meddling with the market and let it run itself .it’s not far for people who made their money physically where not all arm chair investors.

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  • That’s have a crash I’ve done overtime for 18 years 8 years doing 95 hours a week and 10 years doing 70 hours a week that’s total hours I have been waiting for a crash for 14 years the crash in 2008 in the UK was not a proper crash I’m not a btler not a arm chair investor still living with the folks at 40 years old I did earn interest on my money until 2001 when they fell off a cliff .even if I’m buying cash time is running out I want my folks to see my house it’s not fair on people like us .it’s sods law that if I buy now they will fall 50% that’s money I could of kept to myself and if I don’t they will rise I don’t know which way to go and I don’t feel grownup living with the folks .I wished the government would stop meddling in a free market and let it run itself does the government like seeing the numbers go up and up or is it scared of economic collapse

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