Friday, Feb 06, 2015

But it's a different this time? Isn't it?

You Tube: The Economic Collapse Warning Sign You Need To Know

''When the price of oil falls dramatically - it is a sign that economic activity is really slowing down. Stefan Molyneux discusses the current state of the economy.''

Posted by hpwatcher @ 11:16 AM (5886 views)
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11 Comments

1. hpwatcher said...

Friday, February 6, 2015 11:16AM Report Comment
 

2. reticent said...

This guy is a Libertarian. I watched a video on which he answered many questions that "Libertarians can't answer". He is capable of a very special kind of doublethink. Having stopped that video halfway through, I am not inclined to watch this one.

Friday, February 6, 2015 12:20PM Report Comment
 

3. Striebs said...

The worlds consumption of oil is going up by 1 million barrels per day each year , not down .

In China only 7 adults out of every 100 have access to a car - far lower than Europe . If they merely treble with gasoline and diesel cars then their liquid fuel consumption will double .


The high prices lead to over investment which in turn fed through to over production which enabled the financiers to crash the price of oil .

We have the situation where countries which are totally dependent on oil like Nigeria are pumping as hard as they can to compensate for falling prices which in turn is compounding the problem .

It will be deferment of expenditure on big capex intensive projects and natural decline which brings oil prices back up , not cutting back on U.S. shale .

Reduction in investment now is going to feed through into price shocks within a couple of years .

Japan switching it's nukes back on may slow the rate of growth of consumption of natural gas but it's still destined to climb .

Friday, February 6, 2015 12:32PM Report Comment
 

4. hpwatcher said...

He is capable of a very special kind of doublethink.

Who isn't?

Friday, February 6, 2015 12:53PM Report Comment
 

5. reticent said...

I suppose everyone is deluded and misguided in some way, but libertarians take the cake and this guy's off the scale. The style of his delivery irks me too. Having a bizarre transatlantic accent and a webcam does not make you an authority, but he talks as if he's enlightening his audience with his every breath.

Friday, February 6, 2015 01:20PM Report Comment
 

6. hpwatcher said...

I suppose everyone is deluded and misguided in some way, but libertarians take the cake and this guy's off the scale. The style of his delivery irks me too. Having a bizarre transatlantic accent and a webcam does not make you an authority, but he talks as if he's enlightening his audience with his every breath.

You might not like the form, but the content is pretty good.

Friday, February 6, 2015 01:59PM Report Comment
 

7. quiet guy said...

It's a while since I've seen any of Stefan's videos. Essentially, he sees to be arguing for inflation to dispose of debts caused by oil price derivative problems.

(17:20) You will pay through taxes. You will pay through inflation. In other words, if your are a citizen or any [US] dollar holder, you are likely to pay through the erosion of any kind of value.

If he's correct, asset prices, including house, will rocket.

Stefan is a brilliant orator but it seems unlikely to me that he has any special economic insight.

Saturday, February 7, 2015 11:43AM Report Comment
 

8. pete green said...

As with all ideologues Stefan makes everything fit some narrow Austrian model and does not countenance anything outside that dogma. But he is one of the more well informed frootloops.

I noticed our resident bull never explored private debt - except from the fallacy that it all nets off:

Another recent view of debt:

Saturday, February 7, 2015 01:12PM Report Comment
 

9. reticent said...

@6

There is no denying that he is a great speaker, not just in that he has a radio voice but in that he expresses himself very clearly. I do, however, notice that he is most animated and speaking most quickly when he's putting forward some libertarian assumption as an innate truth.

"more well-informed froot loops"

Having relented and watched it yesterday, it does seem very well-researched and he only ever alludes to his libertarian leanings a few times. It's mostly just a lot of mentions of economic indicators that are flashing red right now and very interesting at that.

I would like to change my vote from "avoid" to "recommend", albeit with a froot-loop disclaimer.

I agree with QG, however. His analysis may be good, but his conclusions probably aren't. Asset price collapse seems more likely than runaway inflation with all the deflation going on right now.

Saturday, February 7, 2015 03:11PM Report Comment
 

10. hpwatcher said...

If he's correct, asset prices, including house, will rocket

That's the undoubted attempt, hence the CB's obsession with inflation. Deflation anyone?

Monday, February 9, 2015 10:32AM Report Comment
 

11. icarus said...

Watched 2/3rds of this meandering and gave up. WTF is his message (or the message of the teleprompter from which he's reading)? Blames Russia for Ukraine when its problems started with an American-led Nazi putsch in Kiev and the country is now owned by US banks and hedge funds.

Monday, February 9, 2015 10:08PM Report Comment
 

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