February 2015 Archive

Saturday, February 28, 2015

Another prop just in time for the election

Independent: 20% off for FTB

The show must go on. Well for a while anyway.

Posted by chrisch @ 10:50 AM 18 Comments

Friday, February 27, 2015

Even Daily Mail readers can now afford a house

Daily Mail: 1.18% FIXED mortgage rate?! What you need to know to take advantage of the best deal EVER

And with prospects for my predicted 0.25% cut to 0.25% now made explicit by Carney's statements, what next for housing? Clearly, I am expecting a boom in north east London where I have purchased, due to Lea Valley lines coming under London Overground in just three months time, plus Crossrail 2 announcements soon, likely four tracking on the West Anglia Mainline to Stansted and a new Stratford to Angel Road railway. Crossrail 1 will also shift money towards Redbridge, Havering and Dagenham. So the big boom now is overspill from bloated prime London into the forgotten suburbs that peaked out previously just before World War II, when London reached its previous peak population. Now with news that immigration has soared some 50% (official numbers only), it starts to get interesting.

Posted by libertas @ 12:11 AM 8 Comments

Thursday, February 26, 2015

Government FLS boost beginning to wane?

This is money: Is property still a safe bet? Confidence in rising house prices at lowest ebb since summer of 2013, survey shows

Confidence that house prices will continue their upward momentum in the coming months has fallen to its lowest level since June 2013, a study has found. While 60 per cent of Britons surveyed in January expect average property values to be higher in a year's time, eight per cent believe prices will fall, the Halifax report shows. The overall balance of 52 per cent who expect prices to rise is the lowest since the summer of 2013, just before property values rocketed.

Posted by hpwatcher @ 09:26 AM 2 Comments

Explains UK ''low unemployment'' figures

Telegraph: Zero-hours contracts 'save UK from eurozone levels of unemployment'

Business groups defend companies who use zero-hour contracts after new figures reveal 697,000 people in the UK are on them

Posted by hpwatcher @ 07:00 AM 5 Comments

Tuesday, February 24, 2015

Triple-lock vote guarantee

Torygraph: Pensioners are now richer than the rest and we should celebrate that

What explains the catch-up of pensioners? Over the long run, the two big factors have been growing private pension entitlements and increases in state support. For the past 30 years, successive generations reaching retirement have tended to have bigger private pension pots than the last, helping to push up incomes in later life. To a large extent, this is due to the rise of occupational pensions – which have been made substantially less generous for current workers.

Posted by sibley's b'stard child @ 10:54 AM 20 Comments

Friday, February 20, 2015

Someone's been reading this site again


37 per cent of newly created money has gone into financial markets and 40 per cent into residential and commercial property. But, guess what? Financial markets and house prices are not included in CPI - so the effects of all that money creation is simply ignored, and the pockets of the few that operate in these sectors are lined. With stock, bond and London property prices all at record highs, for the Bank of England to be 'warning' about deflation is disingenuous.

Posted by frizzers @ 09:34 AM 6 Comments

Thursday, February 19, 2015

Where you once saw Sloane, you now see Slav

Telegraph: Sloane Rangers are 'heading for extinction'

Even posh people are priced out. Did anyone notice that our houses are bought by people from the very same countries that are causing us problems politically and economically? Russia the big obvious one. So, beware, the pitchforks are coming. Unless this stops. And we must make sure it stops.

Posted by sneaker @ 10:27 PM 5 Comments

Wednesday, February 18, 2015

Tax it and prices will fall

The New York Times: A High-End Property Collapse in Singapore

Singapore finally took steps to cool its overheated property market. The article presents this as a negative but it's actually a positive. Government revenues have obviously increased, though the reporter didn't bother to investigate this, and prices have been slashed to more reasonable levels so that the locals can actually afford to live there instead of foreigners looking for "Stash Pads" (The name given to NYC ultra-expensive condos by NY Magazine in an article by the same name). While speculator/owners and banks have suffered, the Singapore People will ultimately benefit. Of course, it would be better if the property tax was only on Land, not on the buildings.

Posted by pete green @ 10:19 PM 4 Comments

Off to the races or credit crunch 2?

Telegraph: Global financial system on brink of crunch 2

Great unemployment figures this morning so why do we have near zero rates and help to Buy?...everything on the up or verge of collapse...

Posted by taffee @ 09:51 AM 5 Comments

Tuesday, February 17, 2015

A first for the Telegraph - an old favourite here

Telegraph: Landlords to blame for Britain's rising house prices

Buy-to-let Britain is limiting choice for first time home buyers as 'investors' eat up supply at the lower end of the market.

Posted by enuii @ 08:03 PM 13 Comments

Sunday, February 15, 2015

In Q4, number of new homes being built fell for the first time in almost two years,

Reuters: UK fourth quarter construction weaker than expected as housing falls

"For December alone, total construction output rose by just 0.4 percent after dropping by 1.8 percent in November, much less of a rebound than the 2.8 percent month-on-month growth forecast by economists". Mainstream economics isnt even dismal science these days, its just guesswork and speculation. With an annual increase of 7.4%, how many years would it take to reach 250k new houses pa? Flashman?? .

Posted by debtserf @ 10:15 AM 5 Comments

Friday, February 13, 2015

First tax cut should be VAT cut outside London

The Planner: Welsh retail decline bucks the trend elsewhere in UK

Clearly, London can sustain 20% VAT (Well, except for marginal shopping areas), but Wales, now that NIRP is coming, should clamour for VAT outside Cardiff to be slashed down to 10%. Eliminate it in those towns where more than half the shops are closed, and reform business rates. We are one but are not the same. As said, negative rates will cause government surplus and tax cuts will be the only way to boost demand and remove deflation.

Posted by libertas @ 02:28 PM 16 Comments

Carney reveals interest rate cut plans

Telegraph: Mark Carney: enjoy low prices while you can

Mark Carney said inflation was “more likely than not” to turn negative in the coming months. "The Governor warned that if inflation turned negative the Bank of England may have to 'temporarily' CUT INTEREST RATES" -- BUT "he warned: “This is temporary. It’s an important point, two thirds of this...has been from falls in food and energy prices. Enjoy it while it lasts" -- BUT Mr Carney suggested that lower petrol prices ARE HERE TO STAY. (He doesn't mention that all commodities and transportation costs have plummeted in concert, not just energy). (Does he even know what he is talking about? Can a "man" contradict himself any more times in a speech? Some say that it is doublethink, others may say he is hedging his bets, some may call it a Jedi mind trick).

Posted by libertas @ 09:59 AM 33 Comments

Thursday, February 12, 2015

Shuffling public funds

FT: Landlords warn over right to buy extension

That's social landlords. They're warning against Duncan Smith's latest wheeze - to give away housing association properties to tenants....and thus reduce the housing benefit bill. The HA would retain maybe 40% of the value of a property to pay off any residual debt. Any surplus beyond this would be used to build more social housing "although this is unlikely to produce a 1:1 replacement ratio" - really?. HAs point out that the depletion of their asset base would undermine their financial liability and bring their £60bn debts onto...the public balance sheet. CEO of the National Housing Federation calls it ' genuinely stupid idea'. (May be best to google the FT title if you're not a subscriber).

Posted by icarus @ 07:57 PM 4 Comments

Danish 2month bonds reach MINUS 2%

Uk.investing: Denmark 2-Month Bond Yield

1 month is not as bad, neither is the 3 month. Market seems to be pricing in DaneExit in 2 to 3 months time. Co-incides with potential Greek showdown. Could ECB buy Greece at the expense of loosing Denmark? Chump change?!

Posted by libertas @ 06:51 PM 8 Comments

Carney: I will start printing if negative inflation gives way to "bad" deflation.

Sky: Bad inflation = asset prices falling, Negative inflation = CPI falling

The governor of the Bank of England has said interest rates could be cut further and asset purchases expanded if negative inflation gives way to "bad" deflation. Outlining the Bank's quarterly Inflation Report, Mark Carney said it was "more likely than not" that the core consumer prices index (CPI) measure of inflation would turn negative in the spring. Mr Carney welcomed weak inflation in the short term, saying that falling commodity costs, particularly oil, provided a boost in spending power to UK households and most businesses. He reiterated that the next change in monetary policy was likely to be a rise in interest rates - something libby is not forecasting.

Posted by khards @ 12:42 PM 9 Comments

Wednesday, February 11, 2015

For a minute, I thought UK government were trying tp pump up

Mail: It's the best time EVER to take out a mortgage

The next six months could prove the best time in history to take out a mortgage, experts claimed yesterday. They said a price war between lenders will make it the perfect opportunity for homebuyers or anyone remortgaging.

Posted by hpwatcher @ 09:56 AM 10 Comments

Tuesday, February 10, 2015

UK's property boom based on ZIRP, QE and disaster elsewhere

Property Wire: Central London property prices still falling, latest index shows

It's much nicer for people to believe it's based on something endogenous to the UK economy - quietly forgetting that 20 years ago, you couldn't *give* London property away. Now oil has fallen, China is cracking down on corruption, Russia is sanctioned (will worsen), private banks are under investigation for tax-evasion and money-laundering and what eurozone money wanted to flee largely has, from where will the next influx of foreign capital come? I can't name one just yet. So, why should we price London like its land-locked (Monaco, Manhattan, Hong Kong, Singapore)? "The index shows that in January 2015, landlords with a property in Walworth recorded a negative real % yield of 11.3%, while in Belgravia the negative real % yield stood at 7.1%.

Posted by sneaker @ 04:06 PM 5 Comments

Wave of retirees entering BTL market will push home ownership further out of reach for young buyers

Telegraph: Pensioner landlords could drive up house prices for first-time buyers

A new generation of pensioner landlords is expected to flood the buy-to-let market, pushing up house prices for first-time buyers, as more people turn to property to fund their retirement. The study showed that 11pc of those approaching retirement plan to buy a second home to rent out, compared to the 6pc of pensioners who currently rely on this form of income. Annuity reforms which come into effect in April, allowing baby-boomers to withdraw their pension in one lump cash sum, are expected to fuel a wave of purchases of one and two bedroom flats to rent.

Posted by debtserf @ 01:14 PM 10 Comments

Instead of building more homes, taxpayers’ money is used to push up housing asset prices

Guardian: Private landlords gain £26.7bn from UK taxpayer

Those who wanted to buy somewhere to live were at a disadvantage compared with buyers who could write off interest against tax. He added: “It’s time landlords started paying more of their fair share so first-time buyers could have a level playing field and the government could have the resources to build more social housing.”

Posted by debtserf @ 01:09 PM 1 Comments

Monday, February 9, 2015

Business Lending Baloney

Notayesmanseconomics's Blog: The rise of the disappearing UK mortgage rate

A discussion of mortgage rates and the Funding for Lending scheme. Richards is clearly of the opinion that FLS was nothing but a ruse to justify boosting the property market: "If we switch to the Bank of England data then we see that its two-year 75% loan to value index peaked at 6.6% in June 2008. This then fell in response to monetary policy easing to 2.92% in September 2011 but then rose to 3.74% in June 2012. We do not have to estimate the panic that this caused in the UK establishment as it only took to the 13 th of July 2012 for the Funding for (Mortgage) Lending Scheme to begin. Of course that had to be hidden by the smokescreen of a claimed boost to business lending. Am I the only person bothered by the fact that this has not only not turned up but things have got worse?"

Posted by quiet guy @ 05:20 PM 2 Comments

Baltic Dry Sea index lowest ever

Zero Hedge: Worlds best known global shipping index has crashed its lowest level ever

The Baltic index dry sea index provides an assessment of the price of moving the major raw materials by sea. In the old days when economic indicators were important, this was a key indicator of world economic health. The last time the Baltic Dry Sea Index was this low UK House prices in Greater London averaged £44,000. It has never been lower as the measurement started in 1985.

Posted by britishblue @ 02:55 PM 6 Comments

Friday, February 6, 2015

....and cities are greener than the Green Belt

FT Martin Wolf: The solution to England's housing crisis lies in the Green Belt

M Wolf writes that cities (with all their parks and gardens) are greener than the Green Belt, much of it under 'hideous' arable monoculture. Outstanding amenity? The Belts are rather sources of increasing misery as an ever-larger population is crammed into an artificially limited space. There should be a presumption of development in green belts unless the cost of new infrastructure exceeds the benefits. Developers should pay the local council for the additional infrastructure costs, and some combination of fees and subsequent taxes on beneficiaries should also meet the additional cost of public services. A tax on undeveloped sites would help to ensure that they are developed. Sounds like our own MW has morphed into....MW. (Non-subscribers - google the title if the link doesn't open it).

Posted by icarus @ 03:38 PM 6 Comments

But it's a different this time? Isn't it?

You Tube: The Economic Collapse Warning Sign You Need To Know

''When the price of oil falls dramatically - it is a sign that economic activity is really slowing down. Stefan Molyneux discusses the current state of the economy.''

Posted by hpwatcher @ 11:16 AM 11 Comments

Crowdsourcing BTL

FT: Residential property crowdfunding platform launches

A new crowdfunding platform has been launched that enables people to invest in individual and residential properties in the same way that they can invest in company stocks. Investors will receive a monthly rental income and benefit from any capital growth, in direct proportion to their ownership.

Posted by debtserf @ 10:29 AM 2 Comments

Thursday, February 5, 2015

Housing simply isn't the real economy - video

Guardian: Another economic crash is coming. How did this happen? (Video)

''David Cameron says a second financial crash is imminent. If he's right, it's because the government bailed out the wrong industry, argues Renegade Economist host Ross Ashcroft. He says the last recession was brought on by too much debt. Today private debt is at the greatest level in recorded human history. By ignoring this and instead focusing on the banks, we are heading for economic armageddon.''

Posted by hpwatcher @ 02:26 PM 2 Comments


Reuters: UK house prices jump unexpectedly in January - Halifax

Halifax said that house prices rose by 2.0 percent in January, up from a 1.1 percent increase in December and far outstripping the 0.1 percent average increase forecast in a Reuters poll.

Posted by cornishman @ 09:04 AM 18 Comments

Wednesday, February 4, 2015

Perhaps it wasn't different this time after all.

Telegraph: IFS: Britain spending squeeze to be bigger than any advanced economy

Britain faces a spending squeeze larger than any advanced economy over the next five years, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies, which warned that tax hikes were likely if the Government was to meet its target of balancing the books.

Posted by hpwatcher @ 10:27 AM 18 Comments

Planning rules on affordable housing scrapped

Guardian: Luxury flats with billiard rooms at the cost of affordable homes?

Developers who turn empty buildings into private homes are now exempt from contributing funds towards building further affordable housing. The Abu Dhabi Investment Council, for instance, has avoided a £9m payment towards affordable housing in Westminster while building luxury flats with home cinemas and billiard rooms. The Qatari royal family looks set to avoid part of a £78m levy on the redevelopment of Chelsea barracks. Meanwhile, families being evicted from social housing in that borough are being sent out of the capital, away from friends, jobs and schools.

Posted by debtserf @ 09:28 AM 5 Comments

Monday, February 2, 2015

A housing market that works?

PricedOut: A housing market that works - the PricedOut Manifesto

PricedOut believes that ordinary working people should be able to afford to buy a good quality home wherever they are in the UK. Our manifesto is a comprehensive package of measures that will address the root causes of today’s sky-high house prices and bring stability and affordability to the UK housing market. We need: A government target of zero house price inflation A major housebuilding programme, focussed on areas that need new homes the most An end to incentives which encourage speculation in house prices and put first-time buyers at a disadvantage in the market Improved tenants’ rights to ensure private rented housing is an acceptable place to live

Posted by debtserf @ 08:05 PM 12 Comments

BOE granted new powers to reign in house prices

Mortgage Solutions: Bank of England: FPC given power to control LTV caps

The Bank of England's Financial Policy Committee (FPC) has been granted powers to control loan-to-value (LTV) and debt-to-income (DTI) ratios with respect to owner-occupied and buy-to-let residential mortgages.

Posted by captblack @ 08:03 PM 0 Comments

Home Truths

National Housing Federation: Broken Market, Broken Dreams

England is suffering a catastrophic housing crisis that has been more than a generation in the making. The impact of undersupply and high prices, stagnating salaries, decreasing affordability and more people privately renting is increasing the housing beneft bill. Indeed, the total housing beneft bill in England – accounting for infation – has risen by almost 150% from £8.7bn to £21.5bn in 21 years.

Posted by debtserf @ 11:41 AM 3 Comments

Sunday, February 1, 2015

10 yr UK debt reaches RECORD LOW YIELD

Uk.investing: UK 10-Year Bond Yield Overview

Yields on 10yr gilts are down from 3% last January to a wafer thin 1.3% now. This total collapse in yields represents reduced inflation expectations combined with increased demand for UK bonds from an increasingly fragile European financial system. Projections that we will have deflation before summer combined with accelerating Euro issues suggest that the prior consolidation of yields will be mirrored to the downside, suggesting that 10yr rates could be close to zero percent within the next couple of years, sending 10yr fixed rate mortgages far lower, with 15 and 25yr fixed rates coming on-line. It also suggests 1, 2, 3 and possibly 5yr rates plunging into negative territory, with mortgage holders being paid negative rates to take out variable rate mortgages.

Posted by libertas @ 08:39 PM 19 Comments

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