December 2014 Archive

Tuesday, December 30, 2014

Swiss 5yr bonds now seriously negative

Uk.investing: Switzerland 5-Year Bond Yield Overview

10yr bonds on the Swiss Franc are also going parabolic, about to smash into negative territory. This is a sign of a flight to safety. Fear that the ECB cannot hold together the Eurozone. UK 5yr yields are also crashing, about to pass through resistance & head to sub 1% levels. Now, remember that house prices fell whilst rates collapsed in 2008. That is possible, indeed that is what we are seeing. However, the costs of servicing a mortgage are about to drop like a stone. Those with savings on deposit may end up being charged for the privilege, simply because banks & Sterling as a whole has enough hot money flowing in from abroad already. WATCH THE GREEK TRAGEDY / ELECTION LIKE A HAWK, because if they renegotiate the bailout, others will want the same. That is when negative rates go large.

Posted by libertas @ 10:16 PM 11 Comments

Monday, December 29, 2014

Houses falling into the sea and their misleading tag line

Independent: Properties worth a total of £1bn will fall into the sea because of coastal erosion over next century

If the article was worded less sensationally as 70 houses per year will fall into the sea over the next 100 years nobody would be interested. Plus their average value is only 142K at the valuation given and reflects their precarious position and may even be worth the gamble for retiring baby boomers etc.

Posted by enuii @ 11:41 AM 3 Comments

ZZzzzzzzzz

Mail: Prepare for house prices to FALL

After a year of soaring house prices across Britain, they are set to fall Warning comes from the Centre for Economics and Business Research Group will warn prices will slip during 2015 - conflicting with other analysts It predicts London house prices will fall by around 8 per cent in 12 months

Posted by hpwatcher @ 09:36 AM 14 Comments

Signs of uptick in building

Telegraph: UK housing crisis: brick stocks hit record low

Martin Warner, chief executive of Michelmersh Brick, said: "Every brick we can make has already been sold up to three months in advance – the UK brickmakers can’t supply demand at the moment." The strong demand from housebuilders has seen brickmakers rush to bring back facilities. Weinerberger, Europe’s largest brickmaker, is reinstating two mothballed factories that will produce 200m-plus bricks a year.

Posted by quiet guy @ 12:19 AM 13 Comments

Saturday, December 27, 2014

One for Libby.

Dailymail: Best places to live in the UK for your property to increase in value Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2888340/Best-places-live-UK-property-increase-value-worst.html#ixzz3N7xZlUFW Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

So the propaganda onslaught begins early, the first after Christmas example from the Mail. Greenwich has seen the largest annual price rise jumping by one-quarter. London has nine of the ten best performing areas in the property market Bury is the worst place in Britain to invest in property according to survey Average UK house prices have increased by 8 per cent on last year

Posted by khards @ 07:18 PM 2 Comments

Foreign owners seizing on the London housing market

Guardian: Londoners miss out as homes built as ‘safe deposit boxes’ for foreign buyers

The control of plans for tens of thousands of new homes in London is now in the hands of foreign investors who are increasing their grip on the capital’s prime property assets, figures obtained by the Guardian have revealed.

Posted by debtserf @ 01:25 PM 2 Comments

Friday, December 26, 2014

Just where has the recent London housing boom really come from?

Daily Telegraph: QE addiction has made us too complacent

Deutsche Bank round- up of market prospects for 2015 : “If it was a free market and central banks were not allowed to intervene any more then we would be very bearish. However central banks do exist and at a global level will buy more assets in 2015 than they did in 2014.” and "This massive central bank credit has in turn fueled dramatic asset price inflation, with the combined valuation of world equity markets (before the very recent jitters) reaching almost $75 trillion – a not-entirely-coincidental threefold increase from the March 2009 low of $25  trillion. Charts plotting the rise in equity markets against the increase in central bank balance sheets show an almost perfect correlation".

Posted by britishblue @ 04:09 PM 5 Comments

Wednesday, December 24, 2014

Merry Christmas - Ho! Ho! Ho!

Telegraph: Pound drops as figures reveal 'unsustainable' current account deficit

Britain's recovery is more fragile than previously thought, official data showed on Tuesday, as statisticians revised down growth for most of last year and revealed that the UK's current account deficit is now at its joint-widest on record. Meanwhile, the UK's current account deficit, which measures trade as well as overseas income and transfers to bodies such as the European Union, widened to £27bn in the third quarter, or around 6pc of GDP. This is the biggest deficit in cash terms since records began in 1955, and matches the record deficit seen in the third quarter of 2013 as a proportion of GDP. The data revealed that income from the UK's foreign investments dropped between July and September, exacerbated by an increase in cash flowing out of the UK to foreign investors.

Posted by khards @ 06:58 PM 18 Comments

Tuesday, December 23, 2014

Tory con-trick exposed?

Mail: Official: British economy not doing as well as first thought... and families are STILL poorer than they were before the recession

The Office for National Statistics this morning revised down its economic growth estimates for five of the last six quarters. It means the economy is just 2.6 per cent bigger than at the same time last year, down from a previous estimate of 3 per cent. But the ONS said despite the economic growth people are still poorer than they were at the time of the economic crash.

Posted by hpwatcher @ 01:35 PM 6 Comments

Monday, December 22, 2014

Signs of a stamp duty boom?

Mail: House prices falling in a THIRD of the country sparking fears of a nationwide slowdown

A third of postcodes saw property prices fall in three months to November Slowdown hitting parts of London despite 17% price rise across the capital A quarter of capital’s post codes areas are now experiencing falling prices

Posted by hpwatcher @ 12:05 PM 12 Comments

Down, down, down?

CITY AM: London housing market slower than rest of UK

HOUSING market activity in London is now lagging behind the rest of the country, new figures reveal today. In the three months to September, the number of transactions in Eng­land and Wales was 15.4 per cent higher than the same period last year, according to LSL property services.

Posted by hpwatcher @ 09:29 AM 1 Comments

London property is dead, hail the new London property market!

Emoov: Property Hotspots Index Q3 2014 - Enfield now number four for demand

Here is the full link to the survey. Enfield is number four and I bet that east of the A10 is right up at the top. A place where you can still get a studio flat for just over £130k, and a three bed family home for a little over £250k. The Borough joins London Overground network in May this year, with visible links on the main tube map to Hackney, Liverpool Street and also the Victoria Line via Seven Sisters. Families huddled into Hackney flats will flood out into the leafy suburbs of Enfield. Hillingdon, Lewisham and Harrow are seeing the same trend, but the new rail improvements to Enfield, finally putting it on the tube map, will sent the Borough to pole position by this summer. It will catch up a bit with Hackney if Crossrail 2 or four tracking of the Lea Valley line is approved.

Posted by libertas @ 09:03 AM 13 Comments

Central london market is dead

Telegraph: Londons most unpopular borough

Wouldn't bet against a Tokyo style collapse in prices but either way feels like something nasty is Going to happen and that's before rates rise

Posted by taffee @ 05:08 AM 4 Comments

Saturday, December 20, 2014

Subdued

Guardian: UK property boom fades as pace of house price growth fizzles out

No sign of a crash but a welcome break from the usual price pumping: Property markets in Edinburgh and Glasgow experienced a post-referendum bounce, according to new research, as the ending of uncertainty over Scottish independence helped the two cities record the fastest price rises in the UK over the past three months. But in other parts of the UK there were further signs that the boom of the first half of the year had fizzled out, the data from property firm Hometrack showed. Prices in former hotspots Aberdeen and Cambridge fell over the three months and in London they rose only 0.5%."

Posted by quiet guy @ 03:15 PM 4 Comments

Friday, December 19, 2014

Can you hear the awful noise of pigs at the trough?

Torygraph: Flood insurance scheme is expanded to include riverside mansions

"Flood Re, the scheme which aims to deliver affordable insurance for flood-prone properties, will also cover the most expensive homes, the Government has confirmed" I'm so pleased that the gvmt is helping these poor souls... Excellent use of taxpayer money.

Posted by mombers @ 09:29 AM 14 Comments

Thursday, December 18, 2014

Latest CML figures

BBC: Mortgage lending dip continues, says CML

"Gross lending totalled £16.9bn in November, down 9% from October, the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) said". "It added that a "gentle trajectory" for the mortgage market would "calm" any concerns over the effect of a housing boom on the UK economy in general".

Posted by alan @ 06:30 PM 1 Comments

Perfect storm?

Yahoo FINANCE: 4 Reasons Why House Prices Are Set To Plunge Next Year

House prices in the UK may fall significantly in 2015. Here’s why.

Posted by hpwatcher @ 01:30 PM 13 Comments

Oil glut wont last long

BBC: North Sea oil industry 'close to collapse'

It's almost impossible to make money at these oil prices", Mr Allan, who is a director of Premier Oil in addition to chairing Brindex, told the BBC. It's a huge crisis. This has happened before, and the industry adapts, but the adaptation is one of slashing people, slashing projects and reducing costs wherever possible, and that's painful for our staff, painful for companies and painful for the country.

Posted by mountain goat @ 12:33 PM 3 Comments

Wednesday, December 17, 2014

The Next Election will Impact House Prices Going Forward

Guardian: Labour opens up five-point poll lead over Tories

House Prices in a year's time will be decisively affected by the May election. It's coming closer. My removals friend said volumes of house moves are up in our area for December. A Mansion Tax then in 2015?

Posted by alan @ 09:46 PM 11 Comments

Interesting view!

CityAM: UK wages set to continue to beat inflation with a 2.5pc rise in pay over 2015

If inflation was stable then wages rising above inflation would be great maybe, but this article misses that there has been about 7 years of inflation going above wages!! So to speak about solely this year is meaningless. Wages are accelerating due to the amount of extra cash that has been pumped in because the extra cash eventually spreads out.

Posted by stillthinking @ 12:00 AM 8 Comments

Tuesday, December 16, 2014

Will this prevent a slide of asking prices in London

Guardian: Lowest-ever 10-year mortgage deals launched

"Santander this morning launched its lowest-ever 10-year mortgage pegged at 3.44% until 2024, aimed at home buyers able to stump up a 40% deposit....." Favourite areas like Hammersmith and Fulham have dropped significantly over the last 2 months, are their flat prices now set to continue their upward path?

Posted by alan @ 09:21 PM 4 Comments

One Man's Blessing is Another Man's Curse

BBC: UK inflation rate at 12-year low of 1% as fuel costs fall

"Inflation as measured by the Retail Prices Index fell to a five-year low of 2%, down from 2.3%" for comparison purposes. Lower energy prices benefit drivers on the UK forecourts as oil producing countries weather the storm of lower income for the same productive work. Among others, this will undoubtedly help some people struggling to pay their monthly mortgages.

Posted by alan @ 09:10 PM 1 Comments

Monday, December 15, 2014

Cameron loosing confidence in outright Tory win for 2015

Mail: First-time buyers under 40 to be offered 20% discount on 100,000 new homes starting next month

David Cameron will today announce that the 'Starter Home' initiative will be fast-tracked so potential buyers can register as early as January. Under the scheme, 100,000 houses will be built on so-called 'brownfield' land and reserved for sale only to young people buying their first homes.

Posted by hpwatcher @ 02:38 PM 23 Comments

Price Index shows fallng prices

Rightmove: December 2014

"Year ends with largest ever monthly fall in price of property coming to market". Download your own .pdf

Posted by alan @ 10:14 AM 8 Comments

Sunday, December 14, 2014

Stress Fest

Observer: Assets collapse, loans go bad … Britain’s banks brace for a serious stress test

Simulated ‘market tantrum’ likely to be the first of an annual event under Bank of England’s new regulatory regime: House prices fall by an unprecedented 35% and base rates jump above 4%, putting pressure on household finances already feeling the pain of falling real incomes. Unemployment doubles to 12% and inflation rockets in an economy being buffeted by a sharp drop in the value of the pound. In the worst slump in almost a century, Foresight or fiction?

Posted by debtserf @ 09:14 PM 16 Comments

Saturday, December 13, 2014

Spivs crash through Planning Policy

Telegraph: Streetwise builders fighting planning protections to build in two thirds of rural areas, says NT

"Two thirds of councils in large rural areas are having their planning protections challenged by “streetwise” house builders who are “gaming” the system, according to new research from the National Trust". "Miss Samuel accused David Cameron, the Prime Minister, of going back on his word in 2011 that local people’s views would be respected" (its called Crony Capitalism, my dear).

Posted by alan @ 03:59 PM 8 Comments

Says it all really.

Independent: Why first time buyers are doomed

A quick glance at the chart and you can see all the hyperbole and HPI obsession is real. We all know it can't last. Yet it does.

Posted by chrisch @ 11:07 AM 2 Comments

Friday, December 12, 2014

Foreign Investors facing CGT in 2015

International Business Times: Foreign Property Investors 'Corrupting the UK Market'

Foreign investors were "corrupting the market" by buying homes above their real value. How will new CGT rules, scheduled to come into effect in April 2015, affect the market?

Posted by debtserf @ 02:25 PM 2 Comments

Forget the headwinds, just keep borrowing

Telegraph: UK stocks head for worst weekly rout since 2012 on economy fears

"Fears about Greece, plus worries that Europe will slide back into that crisis have rattled world markets in recent days". Chaps - forget these trifles - just watch The One Show and be entertained! Then buy lots of Christmas presents that won't be used...Consume, for goodness' sake!

Posted by alan @ 11:49 AM 0 Comments

Oi, Wanna Loan? a Mortgage?

Telegraph: Britons are living beyond their means, says OBR

"Head of Government's fiscal watchdog says consumer spending has accelerated ahead of pay growth at its fastest rate since the 1990s ".

Posted by alan @ 11:41 AM 1 Comments

A perfect partnership

Shelter: Shelter KPMG partnership

Shelter and KPMG are unlikely bedfellows but it turned out to be a perfect partnership. When you take Shelter's values and add in some skilled volunteering and pro bono work you end up with the housing crisis distilled into one world class, politically neutral report that has influenced manifestos and policy across the entire political spectrum. There is link to a short film at the bottom of the 'article' page and I'll provide a link to the jointly produced report in the first post. The report is comprehensive and so conclusive that there has been absolute buy in from every major party and council in England. Everyone agrees what has to be done now and incredibly it's actually happening. 2016 is forecast to be the year that the UK finally starts to build enough homes

Posted by flashman @ 09:53 AM 59 Comments

Thursday, December 11, 2014

And for the price of a damp London bedsit we have:

Daft.ie: Detached 2 bedroom

This traditional cottage is located just feet from a beautiful sandy beach. The cottage is very private on its own grounds of circa 530m2. The Beach house itself is fully restored with insulation and double glazed windows. It has a kitchen, sitting room, two bedrooms and a separate bathroom. Extension or modification of the house is possible subject to the necessary planning permits. This Island is a short boat ride from local piers such as Fahy, Coolacloy, Clifden or Eyrefort Beach. Turbot Island Beach house is an ideal investment opportunity and it is one of only a handful of houses on this beautiful, unadulterated island, where houses rarely come up for sale. With no ferry service to Turbot Island, you can be assured of your privacy.

Posted by khards @ 02:59 PM 6 Comments

Are you starting to see the trend?

Bloomberg: Norway’s

Of course, Norway, so dependent on oil taxes has been forced down this route because the commodities slowdown makes Norway's huge national debt unsustainable (you are witnessing the slow collapse of Socialism). Britain will be forced to follow suit in short order, and note, most current mortgages price in a 0.25% rise in rates. What will happen when the market prices in a 0.25% cut and subsequent cuts to follow that is an absolute bomb in the housing market. Note, despite the economy being larger than 2008 with at least 3 million more people (most in London), prices are not far off 2008 levels and transactions are well below. All points towards a major housing price boom with recent stamp duty changes creating a massive improvement to SENTIMENT.

Posted by libertas @ 12:58 PM 26 Comments

Wednesday, December 10, 2014

A good opportunity to pay of that mortgage debt

BBC: Unleaded petrol drops below £1.20 a litre

"The average price of UK petrol has dropped below £1.20 a litre, its lowest level since December 2010, according to government figures. Oil has fallen from about $115 (£72) per barrel in June to about $65 per barrel, a decline of almost a half". As oil affects many of the things we buy, we should expect them to get cheaper.

Posted by alan @ 08:58 PM 13 Comments

Conveniently ignores state and local taxes in the US, which are 35% of their revenue

Torygraph: Britain has highest property taxes in the developed world, but how do the rest stack up?

So frustrating when influential publications like this trot out blatant lies. By ignoring state and local taxes in the US, they exclude almost half of the tax take (federal is $3.3tn, state and local is $2.7tn). Of state and local, 35% is property tax!!!! (http://taxfoundation.org/article/sources-state-and-local-tax-revenues) H/T Mark Wadsworth. This would put the honest figure well above the UK. And of course wealthy residential landowners in the UK have the luxury of avoiding any meaningful property tax but just not selling as stamp duty is the only tax on houses worth more than approx £1m, where council tax is capped.

Posted by mombers @ 02:11 PM 2 Comments

Green Belt and Nimbys vs Immigrants

Telegraph: Britain has 'masses of room' for more people, OBR says

"Since more immigrants mean more housing, more roads, more airports, more incinerators, more of this being required, and since the evidence would suggest that people by and large don’t like these things, especially if they are near them, that’s the key issue about immigration that people may wish to face up to.

Posted by quiet guy @ 01:15 PM 7 Comments

Tuesday, December 9, 2014

Gees, who would have thought it?

MaxKeiser: Central Banks Create Deflation, Not Inflation

he central banks have been frustrated in their insane and misguided aim to increase inflation because QE and ZIRP actually foster the opposite of what central bankers expect. Central bankers and conomists think that to get inflation they only need to print more money, not recognizing that the inflation that does result from money printing, asset inflation, leads eventually to consumer goods deflation. ZIRP and QE cause malinvestment and overinvestment that leads to excess productive capacity. central bank easing and zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) fuel over-capacity which leads to declining prices: deflation with a capital D. The current oil glut is a primary example of this dynamic: Why Oil Is Finally Declining, Which Could Lead to Disaster (Wall Street Examiner)

Posted by khards @ 05:14 PM 17 Comments

You have to be cruel to be kind.

BBC News: Interest rate rises 'won't wreck the recovery'

The most striking statement in the Bank's new debt analysis is that "gradual increases in interest rates from their current historically low levels" should not "have unusually large effects on household spending"

Posted by hpwatcher @ 03:54 PM 2 Comments

1000's could be underwater in their mortgages when rates rise

Mail: Bank of England warns thousands more households will struggle as rates rise

The Bank of England has estimated that a sudden rise in interest rates could make as many as 660,000 UK families 'vulnerable', but added that household debt levels were now below long-term averages.

Posted by hpwatcher @ 01:25 PM 6 Comments

An example of the Eurozone depressing inflation

Guardian: Portuguese bricklayers paid £1,000 a week due to shortage of UK workers

Of course, without freedom of movement, rather than seek Portuguese brick layers, UK PLC would have to bid up British wages, resulting eventually in wage led inflation and interest rate hikes. HOWEVER, with construction depressed throughout Europe, there is an endless supply of labour to suck in. As said, the new wave has already begun, with Ukrainian immigrants and, via them Russian immigrants moving into Britain in vast waves. Expect Ukraine to get EU membership sooner than we imagine followed by Turkey. For those who think rates will rise, they are fighting the economy like it was still 1996, before we opened up to Eastern Europe.

Posted by libertas @ 01:16 PM 0 Comments

Interest rates could rise very soon

Telegraph: Economy could overheat if interest rates left on hold, warns Bank rate setter

Interest rates must be raised sooner rather than later, a Bank of England rate setter warned on Monday, to prevent the economy overheating. Martin Weale, who has voted in favour of higher interest rates since August, said that low levels of growth in output per hour worked had historically held back total supply. If this is persistent, “in the short term, interest rates would need to be higher”, he said.

Posted by hpwatcher @ 01:00 PM 1 Comments

Final warning for reduced to negative interest rates

Uk.investing: UK 2-Year Bond Yield Overview

Looking at the weekly chart, UK 2yr bonds are inches from breaking support at around 0.5%. They look likely to slam lower and the BOE will be forced to follow (to avoid Gilt issuances being over-subscribed). Over-night crash in oil prices, Chinese stocks plus news of faltering UK manufacturing make this imminent now, though markets may wait for confirmation in the inflation figures before the final takedown. As a result, stocks, house prices and bond prices are set to begin a new leg of the bull market. House prices will likely soar over the 20% we experienced this year as a combination of lower rates and stamp duty reforms alongside a lack of properties from the summer feeding frenzy create panic buying.

Posted by libertas @ 12:36 PM 5 Comments

Final warning for an interest rate BOOM!

MoneyWeek: Higher interest rates are coming – it’s time to fix your mortgage

House prices (at least in London) seem to have hit a turning point. In spring, prices went wild as buyers lost their heads. In the summer, the market slowed down as new rules hit lending. Now prices are starting to fall. This is long overdue. London prices need to drop by at least 15-20% before they are approaching being affordable.

Posted by khards @ 10:39 AM 5 Comments

Monday, December 8, 2014

Negative interest rates now a certainty

CBC: Morgan Stanley predicts oil prices could drop to $43 US a barrel next year

Oil has just broken support again. If we smash down below $30, we could see oil settling at around $60. Petrol will go below £1 a litre and mortgage rates will PLUMMET. House prices and construction will soar. Economies will boom. Politicians will capitulate, turning against inflation, haling the deflationary boom!! With public finances sustained through deflation by negative interest rates.

Posted by libertas @ 05:39 PM 13 Comments

Completely wrong idea

Dailymail: Young people need houseprice rises

Of course what they actually need is price falls as the next step gap DECREASES...in the 90s nadir they Solved the nequity problem with nequity loans

Posted by taffee @ 12:43 PM 14 Comments

BoE Warning not to turn a blind eye to Interest Rates

Guardian: Bank of England: half a million housebuyers face mortgage arrears

The Bank stressed the proportion of borrowers having trouble paying their home loans should remain well below the levels of the early 1990s – when Britain suffered its worst postwar property crash – provided incomes rose alongside interest rates. ..... The debt-to-income ratio held steady at about 80% during the 1990s, rose steadily in the 2000s to peak at just over 130% and has since dropped to just over 110%.

Posted by mountain goat @ 11:06 AM 4 Comments

Why fix now, when you can fix better later?

This is Money: Number of 10-year fixed-rate deals increases fourfold in one year

A year ago there were just 12 deals on the market, compared with 51 today. Next shoe to drop is 15 and 25yr fixed rates with break clause re-finance options mid-term as you get in USA.

Posted by libertas @ 12:32 AM 3 Comments

Sunday, December 7, 2014

Interest rates paused, paused, CUT!!

This is Money: The interest rate and inflation bombshells in Osborne's plans ahead of next year's election

"The Office for Budget Responsibility now predicts that inflation will be well below the Bank of England’s target of 2 per cent, not just in 2014 and 2015 but in 2016 as well." -- Obviously, it benefits the Chancellor if rates are cut to 0.25% (just before the election when inflation dips below 1%?) or, goodness save us, 0% or minus if the "worst" happened and inflation became deflation?! He will not "tolerate" avoiding paying ANY interest on the national debt now will he?! - As I've said, unless oil turns around to new highs expect the trend for falling rates and relaxed lending criteria for a good few years. Get your finances ready for a 10yr fix right (70% LTV) about when rates are about to turn upward using this time to over-pay and get your house in order. That is what we are doing.

Posted by libertas @ 10:54 PM 0 Comments

The good deals just keep-a-rollin

This is Money: HSBC offers five-year fix at 2.48% for borrowers with a 40% deposit Read more: http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-2853299/HSBC-offers-five-year-fixed-rate-mortgage-2-48-Santander-launches-1-84-two-year-deal.html#ixzz3LFTfvLns Follow

These deals are just out of this world, and with predictions of inflation to go sub-1% even before oil prices crashed, expect these incredible rates to soon look expensive. Prices will soar beyond belief.

Posted by libertas @ 09:12 PM 6 Comments

Tinkering with marginal demand

Torygraph: Steve Webb tells 'livid' pensioners: give us your money for a better interest rate

Gov. offers 4% bond yields to UK pensioners. Whether or not you feel this is a good deal for pensioners, this will surely restrict supply for those who are only prepared to pay the current going rate of 2.09 having had an annual record rise very recently. There is no confirmed balancing plan for state spending. Either way, good deal or not, the government is banging another drum to raise funds.

Posted by stillthinking @ 10:52 AM 3 Comments

Friday, December 5, 2014

UK only had 40% of cuts !!!!!

Guardian: Small print alert: 60% of the cuts are still to come, says the OBR

Back loading the pain !!! The OBR tries to assess what the government’s plans mean for public spending over the next five years. It says 60% of the cuts are yet to come. "The figures imply that roughly 40 per cent of the total implied cut in day-to­ day public services spending between 2009-10 and 2019-20 will have taken place over this Parliament, with roughly 60 per cent to come in the next. And most of the implied spending cuts in the next Parliament lie beyond the period for which there are currently firm departmental plans"

Posted by doomwatch @ 02:57 PM 20 Comments

Outlook not so good for 2015

Telepraph: House price growth will continue to slow in 2015, says Halifax

Halifax says buyer interest is "receding", though experts say stamp duty changes will have positive effect on lower end of market

Posted by hpwatcher @ 10:20 AM 2 Comments

Household debt is set to soar way above pre-crisis levels.

Telegraph: The Chancellor is banking on another house price bubble

"To the extent that this happens, it is expected to be caused not so much by debt-fuelled consumption, or not directly in any case, but by rising house prices." (The chart below looks curiously like Nadeem Walyat's projections).

Posted by libertas @ 01:29 AM 30 Comments

Estate agents are predicting a property boom in the run-up to Christmas and into the New Year.

Telegraph: Reforms spark one of busiest periods for estate agents in 25 years Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2861601/200m-house-deal-stampede-wealthy-beat-stamp-duty-hike.html#ixzz3KyvJaWOs Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Faceboo

Estate agents are predicting a property boom in the run-up to Christmas and into the New Year as families raise their offers and first-time buyers realise they could afford to buy sooner. The new system will replace the unpopular ‘slab structure’, that led stamp duty to be labelled ‘the worst designed tax in Britain’, with a gradually increasing rate. The changed rules – said to benefit 98 per cent of buyers – mean the so-called ‘cliff edge’ where the tax was charged on a whole value of a property is replaced by gradually rising charges in a string of bands. It means someone buying an average-priced home worth £273,000 will be about £4,500 better off.

Posted by libertas @ 01:14 AM 0 Comments

Thursday, December 4, 2014

How will UK gov support home owners in future?

BBC News: 'Colossal' spending cuts to come, warns IFS

The plans set out by George Osborne in the Autumn Statement on Wednesday will require government spending cuts "on a colossal scale" after the election, an independent forecaster has warned. The Institute for Fiscal Studies said that just £35bn of cuts had already happened, with £55bn yet to come.

Posted by hpwatcher @ 02:07 PM 9 Comments

It's different this time, isn't it?

Zerohedge.com: The ongoing slump in oil prices looks set to take their toll on London’s “super prime” property markets with attendant consequences for the rest of the London property market. Foreign money that had been flooding into the UK from a whole ar

The ongoing slump in oil prices looks set to take their toll on London’s “super prime” property markets with attendant consequences for the rest of the London property market. Foreign money that had been flooding into the UK from a whole array of international sources and parking in London real estate is drying up.

Posted by hpwatcher @ 01:29 PM 4 Comments

Too big not to get prickeed

Max: London Property Bubble Primed To Burst – Consequences For UK Economy and Sterling

he ongoing slump in oil prices looks set to take their toll on London’s “super prime” property markets with attendant consequences for the rest of the London property market. Foreign money that had been flooding into the UK from a whole array of international sources and parking in London real estate is drying up.

Posted by hpwatcher @ 11:11 AM 19 Comments

Prices still rising, but not so quickly

BBC: House price growth slows in November, says the Halifax

Halifax, part of Lloyds Banking Group, said that property prices were 0.4% higher last month than they were in October. "The price of the average home in the UK was £186,941". That's 8.2% growth YoY.

Posted by alan @ 09:12 AM 16 Comments

Forces of deflation - UK heads towards lost decades

Independent: Nationwide: house price growth slows again in November

Robert Gardner, chief economist at Nationwide, said that mortgage approvals had also dropped. He said the number of mortgages approved for house purchase in September was nearly a fifth lower than at the start of the year and 27pc below the long-term average.

Posted by hpwatcher @ 07:06 AM 0 Comments

"UK House Prices are NOT meant to FALL!"

Market Oracle: Stamp Duty Cut UK Housing Market Election Boost, Home Buyer Examples

The UK housing market will receive a significant boost from midnight tonight with what amounts to a cut in the amount of stamp duty charged on approx 90% of property purchases with slab increases abolished. Nadeem's concluding UK house prices forecast remains for the Halifax NSA house prices index to target a trend to an average price of £270,600 by the end of 2018 which represents a 55% price rise on the most recent Halifax house prices data £174,671, that will make the the great bear market of 2008-2009 appear as a mere blip on the charts. (Nadeem's projections assume increased rates, but what if consumer price deflation causes them to fall?)

Posted by libertas @ 01:28 AM 12 Comments

"George Osborne revealed yet again that he is addicted to rising house prices"

Guardian: Stamp duty change shows Osborne is addicted to rising house prices

It is no surprise estate agents support the chancellor’s new stamp duty – sellers will want buyers’ savings added to the price. (Of course the Communist leaning Guardian forgets that in the long run, more healthy prices around the old stamp duty brackets will increase the supply of houses, making them more affordable overall, in the long run, whereas increase in house prices will be neutral relative to what folk could afford previously).

Posted by libertas @ 01:18 AM 2 Comments

Wednesday, December 3, 2014

Estate agents believe redesign will benefit existing owners more than buyers amid rush to push throu

Guardian: Stamp duty change set to boost house prices, experts say

However, it was thought the lower duty might eventually mean higher prices. Matthew Pointon, property economist at Capital Economics, said the move from a slab system was sensible but offered no lasting benefit to first-time buyers. “As with all property taxes, [these] changes are likely to be quickly reflected in house prices.” The silly commentator fails to recognise that this will also result in greater supply of houses plus a more vibrant economy, and so whilst prices may well rise, they could become more affordable, though the average pundit is unsurprisingly unable to undertake non-linear logic to the issue.

Posted by libertas @ 10:12 PM 1 Comments

More House Inflation On The Way

HM Revenue and Customs: Stamp Duty Land Tax calculator

My In-Laws are about to buy a bungalow for £310k and they asked me to forecast the costs associated as they are struggling with them. So I sent them an email this morning with the stamp duty costed at £9.3k (3%), it just went down to £5.5k which is a huge change. Here we go again!! Have a play with the calculator to see what a difference it is.

Posted by wdbeast @ 03:05 PM 10 Comments

How will this change things?

Sky: Osborne Announces Historic Stamp Duty Reform

"The new rates will see house-buyers pay 0% on the first £125,000 then 2% on the portion up to £250,000, 5% up to £925,000, 10% up to £1.5m and 12% on anything above that".

Posted by alan @ 02:36 PM 2 Comments

Landlord Landgrabbers get the trashy backing of Daily Wail

Wonder if the assets include inflated UK [junk] mortgages

Telegraph: French bank dumps British assets, contrasts UK sclerosis with Francois Hollande miracle

''...it is ominous that the sterling crash in 2008-2009 has done so little to boost to exports, or drive import substitution. Five years later, Britain is running a current account deficit of 5.2pc of GDP. This is the worst of any major country in the world, and arguably the worst in Britain's modern peacetime history, despite reassuring words from the Bank of England....''

Posted by hpwatcher @ 07:55 AM 21 Comments

Tuesday, December 2, 2014

Ex Goldmanite Dudley sets the course

New York Fed: The 2015 Economic Outlook and the Implications

"Let me be clear, there is no Fed equity market put. To put it another way, we do not care about the level of equity prices, or bond yields or credit spreads per se. Instead, we focus on how financial market conditions influence the transmission of monetary policy to the real economy". May I suggest, Dudley is aware that the Fed is becoming considered to be a stock market prop and not much else - watch what happens next! I believe the UK has bound itself to US financial policy. I wonder if Osborne has been briefed, ready for his upcoming statement?

Posted by alan @ 08:05 PM 3 Comments

Live now, pay later ?

Sky: UK Households Spend More Than They Earn

ONS say: "Housing, fuel and power costs overtook transport to become the biggest area of spending". "..it seemed people put a higher price on having a good time ahead of debt worries as recreation and culture was the third largest spending category".

Posted by alan @ 07:34 PM 0 Comments

Monday, December 1, 2014

Views on BoE Mortgage & Credit Data

Telegraph: Cheap borrowing fuels consumer credit boom

"Demand for credit increases at fastest pace in eight years in October, though UK mortgage approvals continue to fall". "Borrowing on credit cards and demand for personal loans increased by 6.4pc in October compared with a year earlier, according to the Bank of England, representing the fastest annual increase since July 2006" says the Telegraph. "Since mortgage rates have fallen to a record low, a revival in real wages is underway and uncertainty about the leverage ratio has declined, we continue to think that a recovery in mortgage lending will get going again soon,” said Samuel Tombs, an economist at Capital Economics". But Mr H Archer said high debt levels "could cause problems for a significant number of people" once interest rates started to rise from a record low of 0.5pc.

Posted by alan @ 08:23 PM 7 Comments

Unwind of London super-prime properties dead ahead

Zero Hedge: Oil Producing Nations Currency Carnage Continues

Russian money flows into UK have ended - sanctions. China cracking down on corruption and black economy - massively reduces flows into London via tax havens. Gulf money - now in trouble as oil is under break-even and domestic spending needs shoring up to keep populations placid. QE in USA - has ended Bank of England - tightened mortgage rules massively OECD - cracking down on tax-havens All demand fundamentals are impaired. For London super prime to maintain current levels, a new source of capital flight/in-flow is needed. The only thing I can think of is Draghi's come-lately money-printing. But will it be enough? Meanwhile all supply fundamentals are improved - loosening of planning and huge glut of London construction. Is this the end of the London party?

Posted by sneaker @ 05:02 PM 18 Comments

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