Tuesday, December 23, 2014

Tory con-trick exposed?

Official: British economy not doing as well as first thought... and families are STILL poorer than they were before the recession

The Office for National Statistics this morning revised down its economic growth estimates for five of the last six quarters. It means the economy is just 2.6 per cent bigger than at the same time last year, down from a previous estimate of 3 per cent. But the ONS said despite the economic growth people are still poorer than they were at the time of the economic crash.

Posted by hpwatcher @ 01:35 PM (7520 views)
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6 thoughts on “Tory con-trick exposed?

  • That narrative was clearly questionable. They simply weren’t prepared to accept anything that contradicted it.

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  • ….and ONS earnings figures overstate pay. Its Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings uses PAYE figures and excludes the self-employed. Annual Weekly Earnings excludes firms with < 20 workers. Both sets of excluded workers have relatively low earnings. Since ASHE uses median and AWE uses mean it would be useful to know which one is used for the figures for disposable income in the article. Increasing inequality applies to income as well as wealth but the comparison of incomes over time would reflect this increasing inequality (and give correspondingly lower figures) only if the median is used, since this would counteract the upward bias derived from a small number of very high earners. khards - for pay figures flashman may be using recruitment agency surveys or the monthly BOE Agents Survey, which are more up-to-date than official figures. The former is exemplified by the latest REC/KPMG Jobs Report, which concluded that salaries (permanent and temp/contract staff) were still increasing but at the slowest rate for several months while the latter reported that pay settlements 'remain modest'.

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  • Make that ‘Average Weekly Earnings’ on the first line.

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  • STILL poorer than they were before the recession

    That’s inflation for you.

    excludes the self-employed….Both sets of excluded workers have relatively low earnings.

    Quite. All the self-employed people I know, are earning less than when they worked for someone else.

    the latest REC/KPMG Jobs Report, which concluded that salaries (permanent and temp/contract staff) were still increasing but at the slowest rate for several months while the latter reported that pay settlements ‘remain modest’.

    But is that full time or part time? Are contract zero hours and interns included?

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  • The reports probably compared like with like over time (the structure of the workforce wouldn’t have changed much over a few months, and the REC/KPMG report separated out permanent employees, temps and contractors). There seems to be unevenness (slow growth in salaries in October, faster growth in November, very slow growth in permanent placements in November but faster growth in temp placements, faster growth in Midlands than in London/SE etc.) but there has been some growth in jobs and (probably real) salaries, the latter driven by skills shortages. Fall in investment in Q3 though. Mixed picture from such surveys,

    Zero hours etc. has to do with the level, rather than the direction (rise or fall), of pay.

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  • Their last wildly optimistic stab at the growth and productivity of the nation resulted in a big bill from the EU. Perhaps they will now progressively retrospectively shrink the size of the economy until the EU bill goes away.

    Happy Christmas to all cynics out there!

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