Monday, December 22, 2014

Signs of a stamp duty boom?

House prices falling in a THIRD of the country sparking fears of a nationwide slowdown

A third of postcodes saw property prices fall in three months to November Slowdown hitting parts of London despite 17% price rise across the capital A quarter of capital’s post codes areas are now experiencing falling prices

Posted by hpwatcher @ 12:05 PM (7191 views)
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12 thoughts on “Signs of a stamp duty boom?

  • Come on HPW, “3 months to November”? The jury will be out on stamp duty until nationwide’s q1 report in april, or maybe LR figures for feb/march.

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  • Come on HPW, “3 months to November”?

    The key thing is whether the current trend will continue into next year. Such a [low] level of confidence could wipe out any bounce back next year….although the stamp duty thing is clearly intended to support house prices ahead of a general election.

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  • The stamp duty change is smoke and mirrors anyway – if people add the duty saved to the offer they make for the house, it might push up the headline figures, but the cost of buying the house remains unchanged.

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  • @2 That is obviously the plan just as the pension reforms defuse the IO bomb.

    @3 Not so. Sdlt is paid in cash. The windfall can be leveraged as much as 10 times on a 90% LTV mortgage. The savings are greatest between 250 and 400k and between 500k and 750k, but almost all chains will feature a transaction in those ranges.

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  • @3 Not so. Sdlt is paid in cash. The windfall can be leveraged as much as 10 times on a 90% LTV mortgage. The savings are greatest between 250 and 400k and between 500k and 750k, but almost all chains will feature a transaction in those ranges.

    The ”savings” are just a drop in the ocean, and unlikely to make any significant difference. The savings are a fairly minimal, in proportion to the overall cost of buying; a slight difference, but nothing more.

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  • The only boom is going to be in London repossessions. You will shortly start to see financial sector job losses due to property transactions being significantly below last years.
    Many recent London property purchases were by those working in the financial sector, so the negative feedback of financial sector job losses will compound the problem.

    I wouldn’t be surprised if within 12 months time there is a small scale London crises affecting the London financial sector and it’s bubbly property market.

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  • My feelings exactly, Khards, but what amazes me is that this [email protected] has gone on as long as it has.

    There is so much determination to maintain the appearance of normality – in the propagandist sense – but my everyday experience is literally screaming otherwise.

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  • Drove to Trafalgar square last night through all.the supposed hotspots…wow..didn’t see
    Much gentrification on my travels same or worse as 10 years ago imo

    Tense atmosphere seemed me…versus some of the prices paid in these areas..good
    Luck to anyone who bought in the bubble

    Surprised to still see so much run down property still

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  • Tense atmosphere seemed me…versus some of the prices paid in these areas..good
    Luck to anyone who bought in the bubble

    Did you see the news last week? Some poor woman in Harrow, was stabbed to death over a parking space outside her home.

    Generally, most of the people I come into contact with seem very close to completely ‘losing it’. It seems a large depreciation in wages and high inflation in food together with national press/TV stories of how immigrants – rightly or wrongly – have done well for themselves is literally pushing a lot of people close to the edge.

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  • It amazes me how I can only dream of living in London. However, in the meantime, thousands of immigrants are arriving penniless, cap in hand, only to be housed in the great city at my expense, with zero intention to contribute.

    Social & cultural cleansing at its finest.

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  • @5

    For the last few years, the typical FTB purchase of Londoners I’ve known was £300k with 10% deposit. This required around £40+k cash: £30k deposit, £9k sdlt, £1+k fees.

    Now that the stamp duty bill has dropped to £5k upon such a property. Anyone who could borrow enough (all but 1 of the people I know who’ve bought at that price was constrained by their deposit, not mortgage access, because £270k/4 (or 4.5) is not much more than the median household income in London) would be able to put in offers of £325k and have £250 cash to spare: £32.5k deposit, £6250 sdlt, £1+k fees for a total £39750+.

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