October 2014 Archive

Thursday, October 30, 2014

If coffee price increases slowed down would we cheer or cry?

BBC: Housing market is losing momentum, Nationwide says

Nationwide said house price inflation slowed to 9.0% in October on an annual basis, down from 9.4% in September. Despite the gradual slowdown in house price growth, the broader economic outlook remains positive, Nationwide said. Check out the affordability calculator.

Posted by alan @ 11:55 AM 1 Comments

Wednesday, October 29, 2014

Is a worldwide housing crash going to happen in 2015

Zero Hedge: Mortgage purchase applications plunge to 19 year low

In America mortgage applications are at a 19 year low. In China the property market is on the brink of collapse. One of these superpowers has gorged on massive quantitative easing for 6 years the other has gorged on massive infrastructure spending in the same time frame, both based on funny money to keep the pack of cards together. It always used to be said if America sneezes the rest of the world catches a cold. If China and America sneeze at the same time, I wonder just what sort of cold is coming our way.

Posted by britishblue @ 04:43 PM 6 Comments

BOE due to copy FED's policies, economists confused by BOE propaganda

Reuters: First Bank of England hike still seen in first quarter

A rise in British interest rates in the first quarter of 2015 is now much less certain, according to a Reuters poll in which almost half the economists questioned thought the hike would come later in the year. A wafer-thin majority, 28 of 54 economists, stuck to their calls for the initial hike to come in the first quarter. In an Oct. 1 poll 54 of 60 economists had expected the Bank of England to act before April. British rates have been at an all-time low of 0.5 percent since the depths of the financial crisis in early 2009, but with the economy exhibiting some of the healthiest growth rates among developed nations, economists in Reuters polls since June have been targeting the first three months of 2015 for the first rise in Bank Rate.

Posted by khards @ 03:52 PM 2 Comments

May Poppins Quite; coming to a house near you soon

Www.theatermania.com/: Frozen's Kristen Bell Is Surprisingly Political as Mary Poppins

Can't wait for another fantastic US import. Wage inflation ; LOL.

Posted by doomwatch @ 01:26 PM 0 Comments

Back to pre-boom prices based on borrowing

Reuters: UK mortgage approvals fall to lowest since July 2013 in September

British lenders approved the fewest mortgages in more than a year last month, as evidence mounts that a big rebound in housing market activity over the past year has come off the boil. The Bank of England said mortgage approvals for house purchase fell to 61,267 in September, down from 64,054 in August -- a bigger fall than economists had forecast though similar to the decline reported last week by the British Bankers' Association.

Posted by khards @ 10:16 AM 1 Comments

Singapore's prices continue to decline

Bloomberg: Singapore’s private home prices fell 0.7 percent in the three months ended September

Singapore’s private home prices fell 0.7 percent in the three months ended September, the fourth quarter-on-quarter drop, bringing the slide in the past year to almost 4 percent. “There is some distance to go in achieving a meaningful correction, after the sharp run-up in prices in recent years,” Tharman Shanmugaratnam, Singapore’s finance minister, said in a speech yesterday.

Posted by khards @ 09:01 AM 0 Comments

Tuesday, October 28, 2014

Global property slump accelerates

Zerohedge: Case-Shiller Home Prices Decline For 4 Months In A Row

August Case-Shiller data for August confirmed once again that US housing is rapidly slowing down, when the Top 20 Composite Index (Seasonally Adjusted) posted another decline in August, its fourth in a row, declining by -0.15% and missing expectations of a modest 0.2% rebound (following last month's -0.5%) decline.

Posted by khards @ 03:07 PM 6 Comments

Negative rates next. BOE to follow.

Wall Street Journal: Sweden Cuts Interest Rate to Zero

STOCKHOLM—Sweden's central bank cut its main interest rate to zero on Tuesday, in an attempt to boost inflation, which has once again fallen below expectations. The Riksbank lowered its main repurchase, or repo, rate from the previous level of 0.25%. Once the market stops pricing in rate rises and adjusts for further falls, markets will shift.

Posted by libertas @ 01:00 PM 14 Comments

What was that about the moon?

BBC News: House prices in biggest monthly fall in a year

House prices in England and Wales fell by 0.2% in September - the biggest monthly fall in nearly a year, according to the Land Registry. Annual house price inflation also fell, from 8.4% in August, to 7.2% in September. That is the first time since May 2013 that the yearly rate has gone down, the Land Registry said.

Posted by hpwatcher @ 11:08 AM 4 Comments

A rich mans receovery

Bbc news: Lloyds bank confirms 9000 job losses

The recovery carries on at full swing for the rich, but the working and middle class are left stranded as a combination of technology, internationalism, debt and financialisation are increasingly making both the working class and middle class employees less necessary. In times gone by even a lowly bank worker could have aspired to buying their own house. Now their aspirations are survival.

Posted by britishblue @ 07:57 AM 4 Comments

Monday, October 27, 2014

£22bn propping spending up in the UK that in reality shouldn't be there

Sky News: Major Banks To Top Up PPI Bill To Over £22bn

Britain's five biggest banks are poised to take their aggregate bill for mis-selling payment protection insurance (PPI) past £22bn.

Posted by enuii @ 11:53 PM 1 Comments

And consumer demand includes UK housing

Telegraph: Stock markets threatened by collapse in Chinese consumer demand

Figures from the world’s largest consumer goods groups last week laid bare the shocking weakness of consumer demand in China, which threatens to pull down global stock markets that have been priced to perfection by more than five years of extraordinary monetary policy and asset price inflation.

Posted by hpwatcher @ 02:03 PM 8 Comments

Only the beginning

Mortgage Strategy: Nationwide to launch its lowest ever fixed rate at 1.74%

Nationwide Building Society has launched a new range of mortgage rates including its lowest-ever fixed rate deal at 1.74 per cent. The new two-year fixed rate is available up to 60 per cent LTV and offered at 1.84 per cent for new customers, while existing Nationwide mortgage borrowers are offered a rate of 1.74 per cent. A £999 product fee is attached, reduced to £499 for first-time buyers. A new five-year fix available up to 60 per cent LTV is priced at 2.84 per cent for new borrowers and 2.74 per cent for existing mortgage customers. A 75 per cent LTV two-year tracker is being launched at 1.44 per cent for new customers and 1.34 per cent for existing customers. Both products carry a £999 product fee, reduced to £499 for first-time buyers.

Posted by libertas @ 01:37 PM 13 Comments

Interest rate cuts to follow

Zero Hedge: WTI Crude Tumbles Under $80 Following Goldman Downgrade

A combination of the end of US QE and Goldman Sachs reducing outlook to $75 / barrel for crude, prices are collapsing. Interest rate cuts on the way. Expect a 0.25% cut from BOE before Christmas as 1.2% CPI turns negative. If oil stabalises, that could be the end of it but we could see negative interest rates.

Posted by libertas @ 01:16 PM 7 Comments

Sunday, October 26, 2014

Osborne riding on a wave of denial as deficit soars by 10%

MaxKeiser: [KR671] Keiser Report: Sinking British Ship

We discuss the increasingly bankrupt British government as a sinking ship on George Osborne’s river of denial. We also discuss the remedy for the ‘too many poor people’ for democracy problem being global trade deals like TTIP and TPP whereby elected leaders can claim ‘their hands are tied’ by contractual obligations. In the second half, Max interviews Helena Norberg-Hodge of LocalFutures.org about the Economics of Happiness in a time of rising inequality. Read more at http://www.maxkeiser.com/2014/10/kr671-keiser-report-sinking-british-ship/#wxm6Ego17cmyK4QE.99

Posted by khards @ 08:42 PM 1 Comments

Shock rate rise boosts confidence in the recovery

Reuters: Raise UK interest rates now, says Bank of England

The Bank of England should begin raising interest rates now, because spare capacity in Britain's fast-recovering economy could be used up by the middle of next year, adding to inflation pressures, a Bank policymaker said in a Sunday newspaper. Ian McCafferty, one of two Bank rate-setters to have voted for rate hikes since August, reiterated his view that raising borrowing costs now would help the BoE to nudge up rates only gradually. Calls for a rate hike might appear odd at a time when British inflation is at a five-year low of 1.2 percent, well below the BoE's 2 percent target, McCafferty said in a column published in The Sunday Times.

Posted by khards @ 11:08 AM 9 Comments

Saturday, October 25, 2014

Did the EU learn anything from the 2008 liquidity crisis?

Leaked document shows 25 banks failed ECB safety tests: Telegraph

As the UK sinks further into debt, I look across Europe and see that not much has improved over there in the banking sector over the last 6 years. They seem to have a strong political will in the EU, but is that enough? Somehow, I can't see them having the cash to fund any large property loans in London over the coming year!

Posted by alan @ 12:00 PM 1 Comments

Merryn Somerset Webb of Money Week presents:

FT: The deficit will kill the property bubble

I have a friend who has been trying to sell a central London flat for eight months. Another has had a large house on the market for six months. They can’t understand why these one-time money machines aren’t selling. The reason is threat of higher property taxes pushes down house prices because buyers mentally capitalise the tax. They calculate the long-term costs of the tax in the future and subtract that lump sum from the price they are willing to pay for the house and its attached burden today.

Posted by khards @ 09:46 AM 6 Comments

Friday, October 24, 2014


FT: London’s luxury housing market freeze intensifies

The number of homes changing hands in London’s luxury housing market has fallen precipitously as political uncertainty and fears that the market has become overblown continue to escalate. Houses were worst hit, seeing a drop in transactions of more than 50 per cent. Flats and apartment sales fell by 27 per cent.

Posted by khards @ 07:34 PM 0 Comments

View at the top

The Economist: Location, location, location

Published in the summer, has some pretty charts.

Posted by mountain goat @ 03:23 PM 4 Comments

Osborne - as bad as Gordon Brown

Telegraph: UK growth slows to 0.7pc as services sector falters

Britain's dominant services sector slows sharply, though UK economy remains on course to be the fastest growing in G7 this year

Posted by hpwatcher @ 11:38 AM 6 Comments

Oh noes, meaningless rigged stats looking bad

CityAM: UK GDP growth slows to 0.7 per cent

The UK's GDP growth fell to 0.7 per cent in the third quarter of 2014, figures released by the Office for National Statistics this morning showed. The figure is slightly down from the second quarter's 0.9 per cent, although slower growth had been expected. The government will be fervently hoping that growth holds up well as the May 2015 general election draws ever nearer, and it will be particularly hoping that earnings growth picks up and inflation remains low so that an increasing number of voters feel that their living standards are improving. The new normal means weak growth is good for house prices because interest rates stay lower for longer.

Posted by khards @ 10:10 AM 16 Comments

Anything to get buyers into my shop to buy houses!!

Daily mail: Estate agent left red-faced after porn channel is shown on wide-screen TV in the window

Estate agent left red-faced after porn channel is shown on wide-screen TV in the window bring the jokes on

Posted by mark @ 10:02 AM 3 Comments

Hard landing for London as no Chinese equity to re-leveraged in London

Reuters: Chinese home prices fall for fifth month in September, year's gains lost

Chinese home prices fell for a fifth straight month in September, wiping out gains scored in the past year and raising expectations the government will have to implement more economic support measures to cushion the blow. The monthly falls left average home prices in 70 major Chinese cities down 1.3 percent in September from a year earlier, the first such drop since November 2012. New home prices fell month-on-month in a record 69 of the 70 major cities, up from 68 in August.

Posted by khards @ 09:16 AM 4 Comments

Thursday, October 23, 2014

Errr....Rates were going lower anyway..

Telegraph: Interest rates could stay low permanently, says BoE deputy governor

QE just helped rates go lower more quickly says Broadbent. On the surface, the BoE can't make it's blinking mind up. However, I would suggest the real reason is because the Fed sets the rates (that's right - NOT the market). It's an era of financial repression. Box in the sheep, grab their legs, cut their wool off...Simples!

Posted by alan @ 06:18 PM 11 Comments

London cooling off

Auntie: Foxtons shares tumble 15% on house price warning

Shares in Foxtons plunged 15% after the estate agent warned that the London's property market was cooling. The company, whose 50 branches operate mainly in the capital, reported a "sharp and recent slowing of volumes" in London sales.

Posted by mountain goat @ 05:02 PM 1 Comments

According to Paragon more than 18% of households are currently paying rent to BTL parasites.

Torygraph: Buy-to-let boom: one in five homes now owned by landlords

"The Government's own figures suggest that by 2032, more than one in three properties will be owned by private landlords."

Posted by landofconfusion @ 04:28 PM 3 Comments

The have a right to oppose new development but not a responsibility to limit their own consumption

Torygraph: Move out of your big homes and help society, minister tells over-55s

“It should not be the role of Government or anyone else to dictate to people what kind of house or living accommodation is best for them – it should be up to them to choose.” Well, let's get rid of all planning permission, building regulations, etc.

Posted by mombers @ 09:34 AM 11 Comments

What about their mortgages?

Telegraph: Marvelous UK recovery continues

Taxpayer-backed lender to reduce its workforce by a tenth and announce branch closures

Posted by hpwatcher @ 09:16 AM 4 Comments

National UK ponzi scheme needs another boost

Telegraph: Foxtons hit by 'sharp slowdown' in London housing market

Estate agent says activity in the UK's capital over the second half of 2014 will be "significantly below" levels in the same period a year ago.

Posted by hpwatcher @ 09:12 AM 0 Comments

Wednesday, October 22, 2014

Another classic Keiser episode with Mitch Feierstein

MaxKeiser: [KR669] Keiser Report – Apocalypse Now

We discuss the horror, the horror of the apocalyptic scenes that central bankers have wrought upon the innocent and the deranged alike. This apocalyptic aftermath of meeting the Colonel Kurtz like central bankers is an economy in which the under-30s are left behind and the pauperization of workers through inflation. In the second half, Max interviews Mitch Feierstein of PlanetPonzi.com about how democracy has been vaporised in the UK and the result is the falling wages which have led to protests in the streets of London.

Posted by khards @ 08:08 PM 0 Comments

Naughty, Naughty here's a £10 fine

Telegraph: The £100,000 mortgage that cost £250,000 - equity release complaints rise

Those turning to equity release risk paying added interest and early repayment charges that can in some circumstances quadruple the value of the original loan and cost borrowers up to £200,000 extra. As a result the number of disputes between mortgage companies and borrowers has increased. Almost half of equity release borrowers do so to meet "everyday costs", according to the industry body, the Equity Release Council. Other causes include funding home improvements and helping grandchildren with a property deposit. One elderly customer had to pay £250,000 to clear a £100,000 mortgage taken out just eight years earlier after downsizing following her husband's death. What was worse, only half of the £100,000 borrowed had been spent.

Posted by khards @ 06:01 PM 0 Comments

Fetch the engines, fetch the engines. Fire fire, Fire Fire!

CNBC: Luxury London property prices fall 20%

The price of luxury homes in prime central London locations has fallen by over 20 percent, according to a national estate agent, signaling that a correction in the capital's booming housing market could be afoot. Properties in the £2 to £5 million price bracket saw prices fall 27.1 percent in the same period. Homes worth over £5 million performed slightly better but still saw a decline of 15.2 percent. As the U.K. heads into an election year in 2015, the uncertainty over the country's political future could deter buyers further.

Posted by khards @ 11:09 AM 7 Comments

London's burning, London's burning...

PropertyIndustryEye: London market showing further signs of falls as sales collapse 27%

The prime central London market is showing further signs of decline, says Strutt & Parker. Its data for the third quarter of 2014 shows that both prices and transactions have slipped year on year. The overall value of properties transacted by the firm is down 21.1%. Properties sub-£2m saw a decrease of 20.8% while £2m-£5m homes went down by 27.1%. £5m-plus homes performed slightly better, but still saw a decline of 15.2%. A similar pattern emerged in terms of volume sales, which were down 26.8% overall, with all price bands seeing a reduction in the number of transactions.

Posted by khards @ 11:01 AM 0 Comments

The cost of a [Tory] debt driven ''recovery''

Telegraph: George Osborne set to miss deficit targets as Government borrowing jumps

Year - Borrowing - Total PSND - Interest 2006/07 - 36.3 - 526.7 - 28.6 2007/08 - 40.3 - 558.2 - 31.2 2008/09 - 100.3 - 724.4 - 31.5 2009/10 - 153.0 - 956.4 - 31.6 2010/11 - 133.9 - 1,101.0 - 46.6 2011/12 - 112.5 - 1,190. 9 - 49.7 2012/13 - 119.4 - 1,299.1 - 48.9 2013/14 - 99.3 - 1,402.2 - 48.7

Posted by hpwatcher @ 09:54 AM 13 Comments

A dismal analysis for savers and renters

NotAyesManEconomics Blog: Why I think a Base Rate cut in the UK is as likely as a rise going forwards

I have previously posted some blogging by Shaun Richards at the "Mindful Money" site which he seems to have stopped using. Though no fan of house price pumping, he makes a case that we are stuck in a (Japanese?) economic rut and our central bank is turning against the interest rates they have warned of for some years. At one point, he quotes a speech by Andy Haldane at BoE that particularly struck me: "In the UK, real interest rates are now expected to remain negative for at least the next 40 years."

Posted by quiet guy @ 09:31 AM 1 Comments

Tuesday, October 21, 2014

What goes up always comes down

Daily telegraph: Top end house prices in London slashed by 20%

Articles discussed how top end house prices in London are being slashed by 20%. London housing always acts as a wave and we will see this feeding further through London, especially with the silly shoe boxes that are promoted all along the dirty river Thames. What will be interesting is what effect this will have on sentiment. If this feeds into the housing indices and the mood changes to one of 'property always goes up', to 'property is way overpriced' and we should wait until prices come down.

Posted by britishblue @ 05:35 PM 23 Comments

Devaluation on the way - More debt, more interest that tax payers will never be able to repay!

Not The BBC: Reuters: Rising UK borrowing leaves no room for pre-election sweeteners

British government borrowing rose more than 10 percent in the first half of the financial year, giving Chancellor George Osborne little scope to offer sweeteners to voters before a parliamentary election in May. Britain's economy has staged a stronger-than-expected recovery since the middle of 2013. But that has not yet translated into a big increase in tax revenues, in large part because slow wage growth has kept a lid on income tax receipts. Revenues from income tax and employment insurance contributions in September, 2.3 percent higher than a year ago. However, for the year to date it was up by just 0.5 percent. Borrowing for September was 15.3 percent higher than a year earlier at 11.8 billion pounds, the Office for National Statistics said.

Posted by khards @ 02:37 PM 4 Comments

Debt, Debt, Debt, Debt and more Debt!

BBC: The UK's current-account Achilles' heel

The Bank of England is now expected to defer any increase in its policy interest rate till at least next autumn to maintain momentum in household consumption, business investment and construction, in the expected absence of strong demand for British goods and services from abroad. Domestic demand will become even more important to growth and making sure inflation does not fall too much further below its 2% target than it is today. Stimulating domestic demand at this stage of the recovery brings risks - especially because the UK has a record current account deficit, or gap between the income it receives from the rest of the world and what it pays the rest of the world. This deficit has now been more than 5% for three out of the last four quarters - and is wider than since records began.

Posted by khards @ 12:34 PM 2 Comments

Bye Bye Inheritance

Telegraph: Home owners use properties as 'cash machines' to fund retirement

Pensioners in their sixties and seventies in particular were turning to equity release, an expensive type of borrowing which typically lasts for life. Industry figures show the sum lent each day to the over-55s reached a record high between July and September this year, “Rising house prices also mean that customers have a growing pool of equity at their disposal.” In the early Nineties, a man aged 65 could have turned £100,000 into a lifetime income of more than £15,000 a year by buying an annuity. Today, someone of that age would be offered nearer £6,000. The research found 27 per cent of people wanted to give money to family members, particularly grandchildren who were struggling to get on to the property ladder themselves. Spending it before the government tax it?

Posted by khards @ 07:58 AM 3 Comments

Monday, October 20, 2014

House prices ''going to the Moon''

Guardian: Housing market slowing, surveys show

''Council of Mortgage Lenders data shows ‘plateau’, while Bank of England report points to caution among potential homebuyers.''

Posted by hpwatcher @ 06:45 PM 6 Comments

UK's debt fuelled Ponzi growth to overtake Chinas by 2017

Zerohedge: Why Chinese Growth Forecasts Just Crashed To A Paltry 3.9%

Up until a few years ago, conventional wisdom was that China would grow at nearly double digits as long as the eye could see. Then, however, something happened, and China's 9% growth became 8%, then 7% and even lower, as suddenly the Politburo made it quite clear China would not chase growth at any cost, especially when the cost is trillions in bad debt and other NPLs, as we have explained time and again. China's growth will slow sharply during the coming decade to 3.9% as its productivity nose dives and the country’s leaders fail to push through tough measures to remake the economy, according to a report expected to come out Monday.

Posted by khards @ 05:38 PM 3 Comments

Whilst U-turn Dave and Cable ponce about..

RT: 'U​ncertainty shock’: Hung parliament and EU referendum threaten UK economy

Investors are concerned about the future stability of Britain’s business environment, warning of a “huge uncertainty shock” if the UK leaves the European Union, or ends up with another coalition government after next year’s general election. In a new report published on Monday, the EY ‘ITEM Club’ predicts that growth investment in the UK will fall from 9 percent to 5.8 percent, while GDP growth will fall from 3.1 percent to 2.4 percent. The ITEM report also notes that the UK economy may find itself in a slump due to falling real wages, as the Bank of England pursues its low inflation strategy to keep the economy growing.

Posted by khards @ 03:49 PM 2 Comments

Bullish for slumlords?

Theguardian: Britain faces future divided by rich and poor, poverty commission warns

Social Mobility and Child Poverty Commission report predicts number of households in absolute poverty will rise by one third this decade. It suggests that the link between effort and reward, on which social mobility relies, has been broken by changes in the housing market – with home ownership rates halving among young people in 20 years – and the labour market – with 5 million workers trapped in low pay.

Posted by khards @ 02:57 PM 0 Comments

Spare a penny Mr.Scrooge

FT: ‘Mansion tax’ will mean bill of £250 a month, says Ed Balls

Homeowners with property valued at £2m to £3m will face an extra tax bill of £3,000 a year if Labour comes to power. The new charge, along with an annual profit tax on tobacco company profits, would raise a combined £2.5bn a year, Labour estimates, which would be earmarked to pay for more spending on the National Health Service.

Posted by khards @ 02:55 PM 1 Comments

Sunday, October 19, 2014

Next leg of the housing boom to lift prices way above 2008 peak

Guardian: UK mortgage battle hots up as banks prepare to slash rates

Barclays is preparing to offer some of its best ever deals, including a 2.29% fix, while HSBC has launched a 0.99% loan. (Negative rates coming soon).

Posted by libertas @ 08:27 PM 10 Comments

Saturday, October 18, 2014

Here we go again

Independent: Bank’s Haldane says interest rates will stay lower for longer

So what will it take to get the MPC to raise rates? And will we be reading the next excuses to keep coshing savers next year? The only bright side I can see is that with the election over, the next government might be less afraid of cutting back on the subsidies to property owners.

Posted by quiet guy @ 02:30 PM 14 Comments

Friday, October 17, 2014

Five-year fixed-rate deals, already down to 2.59%, expected to smash through the all-time low of 2.4

Guardian: Fixed-rate mortgages to fall further in wake of stock market turmoil

Mortgage brokers are now predicting that rates of less than 2% will become the norm in the months ahead as lenders engage in a price war that looks set to intensify in the run-up to Christmas. Over the past month, the yield on the five year gilt has fallen by 0.57% to 1.23%, while ten-year yields are down to 1.95%.

Posted by libertas @ 07:46 PM 5 Comments

Flex rates now just 1.44%. More to come, as deflation sets in. House prices will rise in response.

Financial Reporter: Nationwide reduces rates for loyalty rate mortgages initiative

From Wednesday October 8, Nationwide is reducing selected rates for existing Nationwide mortgage customers looking for a new deal. As part of the Nationwide Loyalty Rate Mortgages initiative, which compares the Society’s mortgage rates for existing customers to those of its top six high street competitors, selected switcher rates will be reduced by up to 0.45%. The Loyalty Rate Mortgages changes are as follows: Two year fixed rates at 70 % LTV reduced to 1.89%, 75 % LTV reduced to 1.89% and 80 % LTV reduced to 2.29%. Five year fixed rates at 70 % LTV reduced to 2.94%, 75 % LTV reduced to 3.04% and 80 % LTV reduced to 3.44%. Two year tracker rates at 60 % LTV reduced to 1.44%, 70 % LTV reduced to 1.44%, 75 % LTV reduced to 1.44% and 80 % LTV reduced to 1.94%.

Posted by libertas @ 12:49 PM 19 Comments

Nationwide slash early repayment fees

Financial Times: Nationwide cuts early repayment loan fees

Payments now on a sliding scale, decreasing with mortgage length. A huge incentive to take out fixed term rates.

Posted by libertas @ 12:45 PM 2 Comments

Thursday, October 9, 2014

Even more good news!

CML: House purchase lending in August down 3% on July

Buy-to-let lending fell 13% over the month to £2.1 billion in August, but increased 11% compared to August last year. First-time buyer lending declined in August compared to July, with 28,900 first-time buyer loans - 4% fewer than in July but 9% up on August 2013. By value, there was £4.4 billion of lending to first-time buyers - 4% down on July but 22% higher than August last year. Lending to home movers also declined, with the number of loans advanced to movers totalling 36,500, a 3% fall on the previous month but up 7% on August last year. By value, lending to movers totalled £7 billion, 3% down on July but up 17% on August last year.

Posted by khards @ 11:39 AM 16 Comments

Steam Evaporates

Financial Times: London house prices drop for first time in three years

House prices have dropped in London for the first time in more than three years and are set to fall further this year, according to estate agents in the capital. RICs said on Thursday the “steam was evaporating” from the market(!). Martin Ellis, the Halifax’s housing economist, said the data suggested that annual inflation “may have peaked around 10 per cent” and would now "moderate".

Posted by mken @ 11:34 AM 1 Comments

Zero borrowing costs has encouraged speculation not the economy

Guardian: IMF warns period of ultra-low interest rates poses fresh financial crisis threat

IMF - more than half a decade of borrowing costs close to zero had encouraged speculation rather than the hoped-for pick up in investment. Accommodative policies aimed at supporting the recovery and promoting economic risk taking have facilitated greater financial risk taking,(instead). The best way to safeguard financial stability and improve the balance between economic and financial risk taking is to put in place policies that enhance the transmission of monetary policy to the real economy – thus promoting economic risk taking. These include tougher supervision of banks, requirements on them to hold more capital, and curbs on lending to specific sectors such as housing. - sounds reasonable, anyone listening?

Posted by mountain goat @ 10:09 AM 3 Comments

The good news keeps on rollin

Reuters: London house prices fall in September for first time since 2011

London house prices fell last month for the first time in more than three years, and prices nationwide showed their smallest increase in 15 months, a major house price survey showed on Thursday. The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said prices in London fell for the first time since January 2011, ending the longest unbroken run of increases in more than 20 years. The signs of a cooling in Britain's housing market are likely to be welcomed by the Bank of England, which earlier this year warned that Britain's economic recovery would be at risk if house prices continued to rise far faster than wages. The RICS national balance slid to +30 for September from a downwardly revised +39 in August. Fading price momentum is more than just a London story," RICS said.

Posted by khards @ 07:39 AM 4 Comments

Wednesday, October 8, 2014

'When all the buyers are in''...

Telegraph: Homeowners face a house price freeze this winter

''After a year of rocketing demand and property prices, combined with slow wage growth, many regions in the UK, particularly London, hit an affordability ceiling with values now worth more than five times the average wage. As a result the annual growth rate has also continued to fall.''

Posted by hpwatcher @ 04:35 PM 4 Comments

Mortgage Crunch 2.0

This Is Money: First-time buyers and home movers hit by a mortgage crunch

MMR causes amount of credit available from banks to drop like a stone, Lenders also spooked by property price outlook, Credit card borrowing increases for the first time in nine months. Its Credit Conditions survey of lenders between June and September recorded the largest fall in the amount of credit they were able to supply since the end of 2008, when Lehman Brothers collapsed. The tightening in lending was largely due to banks' reduced risk appetite and concerns about the outlook for house prices, the Bank of England suggested. Yesterday, a report by the Centre for Economics and Business Research predicted that property values will fall next year.

Posted by khards @ 08:18 AM 18 Comments

Election bribe announced by a redundant political party

Mail: Homeowners offered £100 million for cheap new boilers and double glazing in Government drive to slash energy bills

Disgusting to see tax payers money spent on what amounts to an obvious election bribe. "An extra £100 million will be made available for homeowners to get cheap new boilers and double glazing, the Lib Dems announced today. The extra money will allow more families to apply for grants of around £8,000 to improve their home’s energy efficiency."

Posted by hpwatcher @ 06:38 AM 1 Comments

Tuesday, October 7, 2014

Is something about to happen?

Telegraph: Bank of England to protect deposits of up to £1m under new rules

Why would an £85,000 guarantee that everyone accepts suddenly be increased to £1,000,000? The comments are interesting.

Posted by cornishman @ 06:55 PM 15 Comments

"Let me tell you about the very rich. They are different....."

Counterpunch: Boom and bust in the city of gold

Another city with great concentration of wealth, lots of rich people but almost a quarter of the population below the poverty line, fast-rising house prices, high-and-rising numbers of evictions of tenants - mainly old, poor and/or disabled - to make way for upmarket apartments for absentee owners and money poured into building more luxury accommodation while little or none goes into affordable housing. So 'the cleaner who pays more tax than I pay' lives...where?

Posted by icarus @ 09:57 AM 2 Comments

Monday, October 6, 2014

German Three Year Bonds go Negative

UK Investing: Germany 3-Year Bond Yield Interactive Chart

Three year German bonds are now negative. 5yrs will be next. European mortgage rates will further collapse and we will see further weakening of the Euro with more capital flight to the UK, Swizerland, Norway and USA, indeed anywhere outside the Eurozone. Germany is about 1/4 of European GDP and it is sinking, just when Draghi needs support. France and Italy are nowhere to be seen. This is a full blown crisis, which is why it is not being reported in the headlines. Expect floods of highly qualified immigrants now from the major European countries seeking work in London, pushing down wages of professional jobs, placing pressure on housing and infrastructure and pushing Britain towards deflation, imported from the Continent. This can only lead to Brexit.

Posted by libertas @ 10:09 PM 21 Comments

What can one say

Bloomberg: Lloyds Said to Cut Thousands of Jobs as CEO Cuts Costs

The bank will shut branches as part of efforts to automate its entire business

Posted by mark @ 01:05 PM 1 Comments

Crash back on... Prices unaffordable to buyers

Daily Mail: House prices set to fall in 2015: Economic group says values will hit 'turning point' after three years of rises

House prices are set to fall next year as Britain’s housing market hits a ‘turning point’, according to a leading economic research group. The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) today says 2014 has seen the largest rise in home values since the financial crisis hit in 2007. Prices will slip by 0.8% during 2015 after the market ‘got ahead of itself’. House prices fell in September for first time in 17 months, Nationwide said. ‘Affordability has become such an issue in the more expensive regions of the UK that buyers are starting to baulk at high prices.’

Posted by khards @ 10:08 AM 3 Comments

Minor correction or something more?

Telegraph: Why it's a bad time to buy a house

''Britain's booming housing market will cool down next year as looming interest rate rises and tougher mortgage rules trigger the first fall in house prices since 2011, according to a leading economics consultancy.''

Posted by hpwatcher @ 08:07 AM 6 Comments

Sunday, October 5, 2014

Asking Price Index: "The UK's Leading Property Market Indicator".

Home.co.uk: London Prices Finally Slide as the Market Cools

Tightening mortgage credit in the wake of MMR, coupled with increased supply, has served to quench further growth in London home prices for the time being. Home price inflation still persists outside of London but at an attenuated pace. Moreover, the surge in supply that has halted London price rises has not yet spread to adjacent regions. Overall, the UK property market is cooling. The average asking price for a UK home has risen only 0.2% over the last month and 0.8% over the last three months. Correspondingly, London prices slipped 0.1% over the last month, yet have risen 9.8% over the last six months.

Posted by libertas @ 06:24 PM 13 Comments

Property topped in May but still hardly a murmur

The Times: Property prices in London drop by 8%

All that Russian money gone due to sanctions. Crack down on corruption in China. OECD further cracking down on UK-associated tax-havens. Bank of England trying to cool the market (and succeeding). Like an estate agent said to me recently "All the Russian money has gone and there is simply nobody else who can pay those prices." The tragedy is that, in the wake of the meltdown of 2008 (was caused by a property bubble and bust), somehow the powers that be thought the way to fix the mess was not just to recreate the exact same thing but to turbo-charge it with the steroid of offshore oligarchs' money. "This housing boom will be perfect!" they assured us. "There is no bubble! Stoking demand doesn't raise prices! And squeezing the masses is fine!" How pitiful our times are. Now a crunch.

Posted by sneaker @ 10:34 AM 2 Comments

Friday, October 3, 2014

Um, what was that about a recovery?

Telegraph: Services sector’s loss of steam signals end of UK growth spurt

"The expansion is based on a consumer and property fuelled boom. There is low productivity, low wage underemployment and a dodgy balance of trade. If the Tories get a majority next year, the wheels will truly come off the cart after a very short time. Not only will the growth curve be normalizing downwards anyway, but the kind of fiscal tightening needed to meet their deficit-cutting aspirations will require a massive drain of money from the economy. It's a race for them between the election date and the re-appearance of reality." (wildejamey)

Posted by hpwatcher @ 02:33 PM 10 Comments

Coincidental that the Hometrack’s report is not going to be published from next month?

MoneyWeek: Timberrr! Are UK house prices finally starting to topple?

it was not until a few weeks ago that the first real signs of a peaking market started to emerge from survey data. And it’s only now that we’re seeing solid evidence that both London and national prices are actually starting to fall. As we’ve pointed out before, Hometrack’s house price index is the one to watch if you want to see where the market is going. Unlike most of the others, it’s based on a survey of estate agents and surveyors, rather than mortgage or sale data. Hometrack reckons the number of new buyers in London fell by 3.4% last month, while the average ‘percentage of asking price’ achieved fell again to 96.2%, another sign of a slowdown.

Posted by khards @ 02:09 PM 3 Comments

The crash has started!

MoneyWeek: Timberrr! Are UK house prices finally starting to topple?

After years of rises, the UK's house-price bubble may finally be bursting. Matthew Partridge looks at what's going on in Britain's property market.

Posted by andrew.williams @ 12:09 PM 0 Comments

Thursday, October 2, 2014

Not quite what the charts say, but FLS's 42 billions really created the bubble.

Daily Mail: Boost for Osborne as Bank of England insists his Help to Buy mortgages are NOT pushing up house prices

''The government's multi-billion pound home loans scheme is not pushing up property prices, the Bank of England insisted today'' But, doesn't Osborne control them?

Posted by hpwatcher @ 04:19 PM 10 Comments

Bank of England relaxes high-value mortgage cap

TurnKey Mortgages: Regulator finalises rules on high-value mortgage lending

The Bank of England-owned Prudential Regulation Authority has revealed how the new cap on high-value mortgage lending, effective from 1 October, will be implemented.

Posted by amelia @ 09:55 AM 0 Comments

Bank of England relaxes mortgage lending cap

TurnKey Mortgages: Regulator finalises rules on high-value mortgage lending

Following a consultation, the Bank of England-owned Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) has released its revised rules on how the new cap on high-value mortgage lending, effective from October 1, will be imposed.

Posted by ben @ 09:38 AM 0 Comments

When are banks going to start writing off mortgages

Sky: Wonga Writes Off 330,000 Customers' Debts

Payday lender Wonga said it would write off the debts of 330,000 customers whose loans would not have been approved under new affordability guidelines.

Posted by mark @ 09:30 AM 5 Comments

Some fun with the shoebox housing policy

Independent: 'Cameron's Conference Rap'

In a tongue-in-cheek celebration of parody videos being made legal, mashup artists Cassetteboy have released ‘Cameron’s Conference Rap’ video in which the Prime Minister appears to declare his disgust for the poor. In the 2 minute video Mr Cameron appears to rap: “I’m hardcore and I know the score, I am disgusted by the poor. My chums matter more because we are the law, I’ve made sure we’re ready for class war."

Posted by khards @ 09:05 AM 0 Comments

Wednesday, October 1, 2014

How many

This Is Money: Debt-laden Pret a Manger turns £500m sales into a loss amid hefty interest payments Read more: http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-2772054/Debt-laden-Pret-Manger-turns-500m-sales-loss.html#ixzz3EvKlcuMJ Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter

I post this mainly to inspire those few left here to post some economic stuff, but also because of the very recent crash of phones4u which tanked purely because of loading a profitable company up with debt in order to pull forward profits. This is not pulling forward profits imo because the level of debt depends on government action that would avoid the normal response, i.e. the company goes bust and is sold in a free market. That doesn't seem to happen for the last 7 years. I don't see who is lending the money to for this kind of wealth extraction because, they do hold the losses in case of default. so ? who is lending the money?

Posted by stillthinking @ 08:40 PM 3 Comments

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