Friday, September 26, 2014

This 2.7% monthly rise is an eye watering 37% annualised

Booming London property driving UK house prices as capital's homeowners see £12,279 gain in a MONTH

Now, this August rise is materially lower than the 3.3% rise recorded by Land Registry for July, which annualised out at 47%. However, this drags up the annual rise to 21.6%. This is for a month that normally sees declines. What have I been telling you folks. European quantitative easing has only just begun and European core bond rates are steeply falling into negative territory. Much of this cash is flowing into London, and London just bagged the world's first overseas Chinese bond issuance. Nationally, prices are yet to breach the 2008 peak, so this bull market has a long, long way to go. Brent oil just dropped below $95, and so inflation is plummeting into deflation and Carney's musing of a rate rise are just that. He cannot rise rates against deflation and a collapsing Eurozone.

Posted by libertas @ 01:06 PM (3854 views)
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13 thoughts on “This 2.7% monthly rise is an eye watering 37% annualised

  • On cue, Catalonia is calling for a unilateral succession vote. This could result in civil war in Spain, or at least civil disturbance. Europe will be shaken to the ground. The Scottish vote re-enforces Britain’s divergence from European demise, more typified by the fact that our falling exports to Europe are being more than counteracted by booming exports to the rest of the world.

    As this divergence continues, capital and labour flows will accelerate, particularly to London. Indeed, London prices are now accelerating beyond Monaco prices. Why? Because the tax haven status there is no match for the currency risk of being within the Eurozone. Do you get it yet?

    If Europe collapses, all we need to counteract that is a free trade zone with USA. OOPS, its already being negotiated. UKIPs calls for a Federal UK are indicative of us moving that direction. These are politicians moving with the wind.

    Expect further re-appearance of the Commonwealth as our future growth area, with other old connections like China being re-kindled.

    EIRE WILL re-join the UK and adopt Sterling in a Federal Union if the Euro collapses, since it will be more stable and prosperous and independent in a booming, Federal UK that is moving progressively towards devolution, than a dictatorial EU that is moving to an ever closer union. Also, because ONLY the Bank of England will be able and willing to bail out Ireland, as it will need to be. Noting that BOE contributed half of the £14bn bailout a few years back.

    http://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/ireland-should-accord-a-pre-eminent-position-to-1916-easter-rising-commemorations-says-historian-1.1928616

    The propaganda has cranked up in Ireland towards re-uniting the whole UK. Having such a huge source of agricultural export within the Sterling currency zone will help balance out the trade cycle of commodities vs services, and I suspect that Britain is slowly reducing corporation tax, in part, to try and coalesce with Ireland’s.

    Investors likely see that writing on the wall, because house prices in Dublin are soaring even faster than those in London.

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  • Aren’t the land registry figures 3 months behind and these announced ‘August’ figures are actually for June?

    Do the figures not show that the number of registrations for august are falling off a cliff?

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  • @1 – “Booming exports to the rest of the world” is a Daily Comic headline. From Revenue & Customs: “Non-EU Exports for July 2014 are £13.2 billion. This is an increase of £0.5 billion (4.0 per cent) compared to last month, but a decrease of £4.8 billion (26.7 per cent) compared to July 2013”. And growing faster than exports to non-EU are…..imports from non-EU.

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  • What if the euro does not collapse because they are containing monetary expansion (at least compared to UK) and it is the UK economy that implodes, then does not labour and capital flee from london….

    Spot on Khards & icarus – export data looking very bad and house prices seem to be stagnating or tiny fall in august.

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  • Hi Libertas.

    Have you exchanged on your new house yet?

    If the figures in your article are to be believed, your vendor might want to re-market and grab that £12,000 rise in price for themselves.

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  • Libby, you are on the wrong website; so do us all a favour.

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  • Viewings in London were totally over-subscribed earlier this year. Open houses would often see hundreds of people. Agents are delighted to have fewer registrations due to higher prices, so that they waste less time showing around folk who are constantly out-bid. That is the reality of the London market. Agents initially liked showing around that many people, but now show around 5 to 10 people and still get the bid they want.

    There will be a pause soon. Probably prices will stop rising after Christmas, which is the trajectory I see. Possibly a slight drop in prices between January and March. However, when German rates turn fully negative and when EU QE gets underway, plus mass deflation from collapsing oil prices, BOE may be forced to CUT rates to stop too much hot money flooding in from Europe, after which houses go BOOM back up.

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  • Cornishman, we are in no risk of a re-negotiation. Look set to exchange in a couple of weeks.

    Icarus, the Euro IS in the process of collapsing. Looks set to crash through support levels on USD / EURO, simply because USA is exiting QE whilst Eurozone is only just beginning implementation, that will need 5 or 10 years to re-balance the Eurozone. It may well survive, but its continued downwards trend will send yet more capital fleeing to London and USA.

    We are talking an unprecedented capital flow. Never before, since the World Wars, has the whole of Europe seen capital flight all at once. Back then it caused the US Dollar to soar to the stratosphere. That will occur again, but this time Sterling gets the headwinds also.

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  • libertas @7 – ? – I made no comment either way about the future of the euro.

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  • Cornishman, I think your questioning here is far too probing for a public blog.

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  • Libertas, you have been pouring what seems like your every waking thought onto this ‘public blog’ – having great long-winded conversations with yourself and getting exasperated when people don’t grasp what is now so obvious to you.

    If you had found a way to take the risk out of the conveyancing process, that really would be something to share with everyone. So I don’t think the question was ‘far too probing’ – but I accept that you choose not to answer it.

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  • Come on Cornishman, if you want to talk about house prices can’t you find a more relevant site? This one just does hot capital flows and wacko theories

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