Tuesday, September 30, 2014

Prices resume falling

UK house prices fell by 0.2% in September

UK house prices fell by 0.2% in September, following sixteen consecutive monthly price rises. Annual house price growth in London slowed somewhat, from 25.8% in Q2 to 21% (-4.8%) in Q3. Nevertheless, at £401,072, average prices in the capital reached a record high, 31% above their 2007 peak. In the UK as whole, prices are around 2% above their pre-crisis peak (excluding London they are less than 1% above their 2007 peak). “Price growth may soften further in the final quarter of the year, given the high base for comparison from Q4 2013. However, the outlook remains uncertain. There have been tentative signs from surveyors and estate agents that buyer demand is starting to moderate.

Posted by khards @ 09:15 AM (3115 views)
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10 thoughts on “Prices resume falling

  • Wonder what will happen next year when restrictions on access to pension pots are lifted? Let’s hope by then property is no longer seen as a passport to riches!

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  • @a saver – Not much I reckon since yields on Buy To Let are very poor (sub 4% in most areas) and running expenses are very high: Insurance, Agents (rightmove) fee, maintenance, voice, tax on profits.
    The market is efficient and has already priced property above the maximum for the current level of interest rates. This can be seen in London where “capital appreciation speculators” have driven yields into negative territory.

    Since momentum has turned I can see prices easily falling back below 2012 levels by the end of 2015 and recent buyers being burnt. Have you seen how insane prices are? Have you seen real wages falling? Libby’s oil price deflation may buy a couple of months, lowering interest rates would have bought a few more however that options been spent.

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  • i can see the skier skiing down that slope rather fast

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  • Libby, you exchanged yet? Or having second thoughts about re-negotiating?

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  • Bet libby is getting scared.

    Looks like the FLS money needs another boost. Throwing liquidity around is nothing, every fool and their dog is at it.

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  • Don’t believe the seasonal adjustments. London house prices rose just 0.17% in Q3. Prices rose 1.2% nationwide not 1.5%.

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  • Albert Einstein says:

    Yep, Londons falling and my what a long way it has to go !, same with the S E.

    Last time the market was anywhere near this overvalued was 1989 (although London was at 6 times earnings not 28 !!)

    99 Wardour Street W1 had been converted into a block of flats , the 1st 2 sold for £1.1m each all was well only 6 more to go , the last one sold in 1993 for £80k.

    This time it’s going to be way worse as the overvaluations are so extreme… Well done Osbourne and Carney , start packing , you’re on your way OUT 🙂

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  • This is actually a pretty cunning press release in terms of what it hides. Prices in London clearly fell in one or two of the last 3 months (most likely including last month), but they don’t mention that at all, they just say annual price growth slowed somewhat. I realise the summer can be slow and prices can fall at this time of year, but even a stagnant Q3 is not consistent with a bull market at all.

    It’ll be interesting to see what happens next quarter. It’s a shame they only give regional data quarterly, as it seems London is being outperformed by the rest of the country for once.

    This doesn’t look like a blip. Even the most bullish of onlookers would have to admit, a 3% nominal fall between now and the spring bounce is not just plausible but probable, as prices aren’t going up and slow season has barely begun.

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  • Nope. Almost there.

    Incidentally 4% yield is superb compared to bank accounts, and most pension funded BTL will be 100% owned, meaning that returns will be fantastic. Incidentally, BTL get super low prices because their promise to run rentals through the Estate Agent 9 times out of 10 leads the Agent to defraud the vendor into accepting a lower offer. We were gazundered by two separate BTL investors even when we offered £5k more on both properties.

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